Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1342
GameFAQs Contests
- Team Aqua Elite (38)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
New vegas will beat the witcher (if it doesn't get beaten by galaxy 2). skyrim will beat dark souls |
doggerino posted... New vegas will beat the witcher https://media1.tenor.com/images/9f4d364748583462f5c11e118900b9c0/tenor.gif?itemid=14049169 The music was thud-like. The music was... thud-like. |
doggerino posted... skyrim will beat the last of us Fixed Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality |
So did the OT rally did anything? I want info for my analysis. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
New Vegas needs to beat Dark Souls 3 first. |
Safer_777 posted... So did the OT rally did anything? I want info for my analysis.Yep. If it wins by less than 100 votes, then you can credit the reddit rally. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
ZeldaTPLink posted...
And Octopath's rally happened after Shovel Knight's rally. So instead of a regular back and forth, we just get a back and forth due to rallies. Much less interesting. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
It's
hard to determine how much the rally is doing at this point. Seeing as
it's stickied and will be for the rest of the match, I'd think it made
the difference. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
Several thoughts:
Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
genuinely don't see what makes these rallies exciting or interesting.
This was a close match before the rallying and it's a close match after. Close matches are fun and interesting. Comebacks are fun and interesting. If a rally makes one of those things occur, that's noteworthy and could be fun. Flipping a 50/50 doesn't fundamentally change anything except the score of your bracket. It doesn't make the contest better. |
Octopath
beats FFXV to me and would get SFF'd less than Undertale/Shovel Knight,
whom are both basically pseudo-nintendo, against Mario. That never
works out well for the former. |
FFXV > Octopath and Hollow Knight > the other knight game That's what I'm clinging to. Hollow Knight being the first or second strongest indie game (pending Cuphead results) would not surprise me in the least and honestly, would be about what I expected. Hollow Knight has been slept on hard in terms of strength and I've been saying that since Day 1 of the contest. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. (edited 4/14/2020 9:43:14 AM) |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Octopath gained 100 extra votes in 10 minutes the moment the rally was pinned. That's not an assumption, the data is there. Between this and the reddit sticky being up for about two and a half hours now, it seems clear this is gonna make an impact on a game with a vote lead of 166. Octopath absolutely could win this without the rallies, but this is assistance that can decide a winner too. Is this rally more fun for anyone else now than the match already was? I'll deal with one this size, but I wouldn't call it more fun than before the rally either. O P E R A T I O N O U S T : Nominate SHEIK! https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/ssb/images/0/0d/Sheik-Victory3-SSB4.png |
Octopath is a great game tyvmtbqhimho And yes, both of these games would beat FFXV. I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser |
Hey
remember how great Olberic's last two chapters were? And how his story
uses his unique mechanic? Or how unique and dark Primrose's story is
compared to typical JRPG fare? Or how the battle system is the gold
standard for turn based combat? These are the kinds of things that you can only get in Good Video Games(tm), such as Octopath Traveler. (Shovel Knight is still slightly better) I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser |
HaRRicH posted... Between this and the reddit sticky being up for about two and a half hours now, it seems clear this is gonna make an impact on a game with a vote lead of 166. Octopath absolutely could win this without the rallies, but this is assistance that can decide a winner too.At one point Shovel Knight had a 360 vote lead. Octopath spent the night and morning slowly clawing back to turn it into an even match, setting up a potential stallfest for the rest of the day that could have come down to the wire and been the biggest comeback of the contest so far. Trends favored it but it wasn't guaranteed. The rally turned the stallfest into an easy win and removed all doubt and uncertainty. In this case, it's very difficult to say the rally improved the experience for anyone except people with Octopath in their bracket. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Rallies
are a good thing and make the contest interesting. Games with devoted
fanbases (even if they are smaller) deserve to win over games that have
more general exposure but don't have people excited enough to bother
rallying over. Anyway, I'm definitely getting the Monado Hell facebook group in here to vote for Xenoblade. Don't care if you think Overwatch deserves to win because more people know about it, if you can't get those people energized to vote it should still lose. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Heropon_Riki posted... Rallies are a good thing and make the contest interesting. If you value what you value sure. Just remember other people value different things. So because I value honest data, rallies just ruin the point and bore me. |
Heropon_Riki posted... Rallies are a good thing and make the contest interesting. Games with devoted fanbases (even if they are smaller) deserve to win over games that have more general exposure but don't have people excited enough to bother rallying over. I don't think anyone here believes OW has a chance. |
Heropon_Riki posted... Rallies are a good thing and make the contest interesting. Games with devoted fanbases (even if they are smaller) deserve to win over games that have more general exposure but don't have people excited enough to bother rallying over. yes, league of legends is the definition of a small game with a devoted fanbase All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
You want to try to outrally Overwatch, huh |
pjbasis posted... If you value what you value sure. Just remember other people value different things. So because I value honest data, rallies just ruin the point and bore me. It is still honest data though, just a different interpretation. Without rallies, its pretty much entirely a contest about brand awareness and which games more people on gamefaqs have played and liked. With rallies, you get a better sense of which games have the most enthusiastic fanbases. It's less about how many people have played the game and more about which games have left a lasting impression on people. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
I
feel the Bloodborne rally has opened the floodgates. More and more
people are announcing that they're going to start a rally, even matches
where the game to be rallied has no chance of losing. |
Yes, it's a different type of data, but it's a type I don't care about |
Mac Arrowny posted... yes, league of legends is the definition of a small game with a devoted fanbase It's not in this competition... if you meant Overwatch yes that's kind of the point I'm making. It's a large game but it has a lukewarm fanbase. That's why I don't think it should win over a game that's smaller but that people actually are enthusiastic about. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) (edited 4/14/2020 10:32:18 AM) |
Leonhart4 posted... Yes, it's a different type of data, but it's a type I don't care about Which games gamefaqs specifically likes is far less interesting data than which games the internet in general likes, if you ask me. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Heropon_Riki posted... Which games gamefaqs specifically likes is far less interesting data than which games the internet in general likes, if you ask me. Only one type of data is actually representative and useful |
It's a type of data you can't do math with and that can't be used to predict future contests. Instead of predicting matches we are just trying to guess what Reddit thread will gain the most votes, which is impossible. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... It's a type of data you can't do math with and that can't be used to predict future contests. Predictable contests are boring though. The bracket challenge is fun in the first place because you can only predict accurately to a certain extent. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Heropon_Riki posted... The bracket challenge is fun in the first place because you can only predict accurately to a certain extent. Exactly. And what you want is a contest where every match result is completely random. May I suggest you go to the local casino/lottery, if that's what you prefer? (edited 4/14/2020 10:33:33 AM) |
handsomeboy2012 posted... I feel the Bloodborne rally has opened the floodgates. More and more people are announcing that they're going to start a rally, even matches where the game to be rallied has no chance of losing.Where are you seeing this? If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
Do Overwatch fans even like Overwatch any more I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh Advokaiser |
Heropon_Riki posted... Predictable contests are boring though. The bracket challenge is fun in the first place because you can only predict accurately to a certain extent. How is this contest predicable, other than BotW wins? Lots of matches we aren't sure of, plus, it's not like there were any perfect brackets after Round 1. There HAVE been contests in the past there were very predictable and had quite a few people perfect for a long time; this is not one of them. The other thing about rallies, back in the day they just plain were less noticeable because we had actual trends. Before and After School votes, night votes, etc. That WAS exciting to see the affect of the After School vote as all the "kiddies" came home and propped up characters. "That was unnecessarily dramatic". - NY Mets motto (courtesy of InnerTubeHero) |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Exactly. And what you want is a contest where every match result is completely random. No? The results aren't random at all. You have to predict which games have a devoted enough internet following to get a few extra votes. Games still need to be well-liked and popular to win. A rally can tip the scales of Octopath Traveler vs Shovel Knight but it's not gonna make Danganronpa beat Breath of the Wild. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Seanchan posted... How is this contest predicable, other than BotW wins? Lots of matches we aren't sure of, plus, it's not like there were any perfect brackets after Round 1. There HAVE been contests in the past there were very predictable and had quite a few people perfect for a long time; this is not one of them. Exactly. It's not predictable, you're kind of proving my point. That's what makes it fun. I'm arguing against the people who say it should be as predictable as possible and you should be able to judge future contests based on what happens now. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
Heropon_Riki posted...
I'm talking about a previous contest. Draven from League of Legends was rallied to win the contest a few years ago, and League is even more popular than Overwatch. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Heropon_Riki posted... Exactly. It's not predictable, you're kind of proving my point. That's what makes it fun. I'm arguing against the people who say it should be as predictable as possible and you should be able to judge future contests based on what happens now. The contest is not unpredictable because of rallies. It has been unpredictable since the first day, in spite of rallies. |
Heropon_Riki posted... you should be able to judge future contests based on what happens now. Yes you should. Otherwise you might as well use random.org to make your bracket. |
Why
do I get the feeling ZeldaTPLink is a competitive smash player that
shames people who like turning items on? Fun and shenanigans make for a
more interesting competition than rigid statistics. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) (edited 4/14/2020 10:42:15 AM) |
Heropon_Riki posted... It is still honest data though, just a different interpretation. Without rallies, its pretty much entirely a contest about brand awareness and which games more people on gamefaqs have played and liked. With rallies, you get a better sense of which games have the most enthusiastic fanbases. It's less about how many people have played the game and more about which games have left a lasting impression on people. Exactly. I have lots of discussions with friends about the state of the industry, what's popular, what's trending up or down. The mobilization of a fanbase to vote in a poll means very little to that. How enthusiastic the fanbase is for small period is not something I care about. You'd be right in assuming I definitely enjoyed these more with the higher vote totals and when gamefaqs' userbase lined up with the general gaming populace better. (edited 4/14/2020 10:42:16 AM) |
Heropon_Riki posted... Why do I get the feeling ZeldaTPLink is a competitive smash player that shames people who like turning items on You are wrong, and if you'd like to continue the argument without trying to throw personal attacks on me, I'll be happy to oblige. Otherwise I think we are done here. |
Heropon_Riki posted... Why do I get the feeling ZeldaTPLink is a competitive smash player that shames people who like turning items on? Fun and shenanigans make for a more interesting competition than rigid statistics. Why do I get the feeling you're judgemental about people not having fun the way you are. |
Heropon_Riki posted... Exactly. It's not predictable, you're kind of proving my point. That's what makes it fun. I'm arguing against the people who say it should be as predictable as possible and you should be able to judge future contests based on what happens now. Not what anyone is actually arguing. We like using accurate data to make predictions in future contests, as well as seeing how all the entrants stack up against each other. Not the same thing as saying it should be as predictable as possible. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... You are wrong, and if you'd like to continue the argument without trying to throw personal attacks on me, I'll be happy to oblige. Otherwise I think we are done here. Fair enough. If you think rallies are random and not an indication of which games have devoted fanbases, there's not much I can say to convince you otherwise. "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) |
pjbasis posted... Why do I get the feeling you're judgemental about people not having fun the way you are. Could be an Ulti alt! |
Heropon_Riki posted... Fair enough. If you think rallies are random and not an indication of which games have devoted fanbases, there's not much I can say to convince you otherwise. It is an indication, but again, the issue is that it's completely impossible to predict when it's going to happen. Bloodborne is certainly not the most popular game in the bracket, but it got the biggest rally in the contest, by far. If you are making the bracket, how do you guess the Bloodborne rally except through blind luck? If you think you have some model that lets us predict when rallies will happen and what their size will be, you should provide it. (edited 4/14/2020 10:49:54 AM) |
In the end we're a bunch of stat guys so we see rallies as useless data points. It'd be like if we were a bunch of predictors in March Madness and there was a small chance that an NBA star might compete for their old college team if their fans asked them through Twitter. Not only would the stats be useless, but the match would be boring once the player starts running up the score. Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 70/78 Today's Picks: SSBU, Spider-Man, SK, SMO |
There
is a correlation, but the correlation isn't strong enough that you can
say "fanbase's size is A, therefore they will get a bigger rally than
fanbase with size B". It's way more unpredictable than anything we can
use to predict brackets with. (edited 4/14/2020 10:53:19 AM) |
The
point is, if you want to use statistics to predict outcomes, that's
fine. But you should factor in which games are likely to receive
rallies, because it's decidedly NOT random. Rallies are indicative of
enthusiastic fanbases that have large followings outside of the gamefaqs
echo chambers. A game that wins due to a rally deserves the win. If anything it should make statistical analysis more interesting. Games that receive rallies in this contest for instance are more likely (though not guaranteed) to receive rallies in future contests. You could also take games in similar positions, for example Undertale may have been an underdog in previous contests for being a pixel art RPG but now it has more widespread acknowledgement. Perhaps Octopath Traveler is its equivalent now (not saying it is, just that this kind of thing can make for interesting discussion.) "Much like the pill bug, I too must continue to move forward." -Heropon Riki (paraphrased) (edited 4/14/2020 10:55:50 AM) |
Heropon_Riki posted... The point is, if you want to use statistics to predict outcomes, that's fine. But you should factor in which games are likely to receive rallies, because it's decidedly NOT random. Rallies are indicative of enthusiastic fanbases that have large followings outside of the gamefaqs echo chambers. A game that wins due to a rally deserves the win. Tell us how to factor in rallies during the bracket making phase, wise one. What are the criteria that we should use? |
Topic Sticky
Update Topic Flair
- Team Aqua Elite (38)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
| More topics from this board... | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1336 Contest Discussion | PostContestUlti | 500 | 4/8 5:17PM |
| Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1343 Contest Discussion | LeonhartFour | 63 | 4/14 4:33PM |
| Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1337 Contest Discussion | chrie_2001 | 9 | 4/9 2:54PM |
| Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1341 Contest Discussion | LeonhartFour | 500 | 4/14 7:08AM |
| Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338 Contest Discussion | LeonhartFour | 500 | 4/11 11:25AM |