Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1341

If FF13 came out today it would receive a poorer reception than FF15 did. However, FF13 came out during a time when we more or less had lower standards. It's reception was still bad but it has its diehard fans and at this point some people probably have a weird sense of nostalgia for it.

augh what are you doing Shovel Knight

Remember pre contest some people thought Smash had an outside chance at BOTW? lol.

just consistently do that for several updates please

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Remember pre contest some people thought Smash had an outside chance at BOTW? lol.

yes all 8 of them in the Guru

LeonhartFour posted...

augh what are you doing Shovel Knight

Its using its shovel to dig its own grave. Just in case.

yes just like that

I think XIII would beat XV but neither are going to be worth much of anything.

I'm sure the reason FFXV got in over XIII is because of recency and XIII splitting nominations between 3 games.

Also I just looked up metacritic ratings. Is Type-0 really rated significantly worse than both of them? I guess it's higher than Lightning Returns at least

If DMC manages to get over 30 on Mario thats something.

Both Mario and Smash showing us today that they'll both happily bend over and get absolutely decimated by BOTW.

Hell...heres something to ponder.....Witcher 3> Smash

I'm going to go there.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I think XIII would beat XV but neither are going to be worth much of anything.

I'm sure the reason FFXV got in over XIII is because of recency and XIII splitting nominations between 3 games.

Also I just looked up metacritic ratings. Is Type-0 really rated significantly worse than both of them? I guess it's higher than Lightning Returns at least

I agree thats why 13 didn't make it

Also LR was absolute garbage but the combat was amazing. FF7's remakes system is based off the FF13 one. ITs really fantastic.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Octopath is getting buried.

I dig this pun.

So after today, it's hard to deny Octopath Traveler is legit. It's narrowly between Undertale and Shovel Knight...and I know as someone who gave Undertale Turd of the Round it's easy to diss it for not going three rounds deep like many of us expected, but we're starting to get a feel for the top ranges of our strongest indie games and Octopath is right there with the indie games. I might take two other indie games over Octopath, and if that's all then Undertale losing to Octopath be 3.29% is pretty redeeming in its own right. It still falls short to me since I thought Undertale would be the strongest indie game, but this isn't an embarrassing difference of strength -- just a surprising opponent.

And now I'm back to not ruling out Undertale beating FFXV.

Octopath isnt an Indie game unless you meant them seperately

but i agree with most of what you said

lets be real here

a lot of games who made it to round 2 would probably beat FFXV.

Whew, lead over 300 now.

I used to think OT was an indie game, but yeah, now I know they are separate games. Edited for clarity.

SSBU/LoZ:LBW is the highest-quality match when combining the two games this contest...too bad the wrong game's winning between them, but both are outstanding.

I bragged on SMO last round as a Star of the Round, but this time I am not. 71% on DMC5 versus 65% on LoZ:LBW is a no-brainer to me unless you think SSBU is SFF'ing LoZ:LBW, but I don't believe that's happening here.

HaRRicH posted...

I used to think OT was an indie game, but yeah, now I know they are separate games. Edited for clarity.

i mean it looks like one. But its a fully fledged 60 dollar switch game

then again so is LA remake and that game is as indie as they get. Still crazy Nintendo charged 60 for that.

HaRRicH posted...

SSBU/LoZ:LBW is the highest-quality match when combining the two games this contest...too bad the wrong game's winning between them, but both are outstanding.

I bragged on SMO last round as a Star of the Round, but this time I am not. 71% on DMC5 versus 65% on LoZ:LBW is a no-brainer to me unless you think SSBU is SFF'ing LoZ:LBW, but I don't believe that's happening here.

DMCV isnt that weak and of course theres SFF. But they probably isnt that much.

LBW is a midcard zelda at best.

Weird thing to see coming ahead soon.

Top two LoZ-games from the '90s: OoT and LttP
Top two LoZ-games from the 2000s: MM and TP
Top two LoZ-games from the '10s: BotW and LBW

We are on our way to seeing a SIGNIFICANTLY bigger gap between the top two LoZ-games this decade compared to the others.

Looking at SSBU/SMO.

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze vs. Bayonetta, who do you take?

I'd be likely to take Bayonetta over DMC5.

Shovel Knight has now surpassed Celeste's biggest lead

pjbasis posted...

There is no way FFVIIR is gonna be THAT strong. Not just for some Episode 1 game no matter how decent it is.

It's pretty f***ing fantastic, even with just the 1 episode, its leagues better than FF15 was

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

It's pretty f***ing fantastic, even with just the 1 episode, its leagues better than FF15 was

This is a very, very low bar.

But I am enjoying it quite a bit as someone who does not care about FF7 classic in the slightest.

HaRRicH posted...

Weird thing to see coming ahead soon.

Top two LoZ-games from the '90s: OoT and LttP
Top two LoZ-games from the 2000s: MM and TP
Top two LoZ-games from the '10s: BotW and LBW

We are on our way to seeing a SIGNIFICANTLY bigger gap between the top two LoZ-games this decade compared to the others.

Ehhh, if you think about it, OoT is pretty damn strong, and I'm still of the opinion that BotW would struggle with and likely lose to MM. I don't think the gap is that big between BotW and LBW, especially given the poor bracket placement of LBW.

OoT could only 60/40 LttP in 2015 so unless you think Smash Ultimate is SFFing LBW pretty hard or beats BotW easily the gap is probably bigger

Octopath Traveler is more popular than I thought it was. I imagine it would actually be winning if not for bracket metagamers who lost their Undertale prediction trying to vote it out to minimize point loss.

I predicted Spider-Man beating Minecraft but honestly thought it would be closer than this. I think Gamefaqs might just have a kneejerk reaction to hate anything that is popular with kids.

Honestly hats off to Octopath. I was badmouthing its strength pretty bad last round, but it's legit. Which is mindblowing to me because it seemed like the pinnacle of a 'come and go' game, but I guess it must have had SOME staying power.

obviously compared to its immense global popularity it’s not doing well, but for this site I don’t think 40% on Spider-Man is indicative of any actual hate

It’s doing better than Dead Space 2 which is a cool game for adults

Yeah, I think GameFAQs is mostly neutral on Minecraft. It's just not a game that interests the site.

MoogleKupo141 posted...

obviously compared to its immense global popularity it’s not doing well, but for this site I don’t think 40% on Spider-Man is indicative of any actual hate

It’s doing better than Dead Space 2 which is a cool game for adults

I feel like Minecraft vs. Spider-Man would turn out this way on most gaming websites.

While I would agree that Minecraft is this generation's Pac-Man, I think it would defeat Spider-Man on most sites (at the very least it would be a lot closer).

Yeah, I don't think we hate Minecraft, but it's not like we love it either. We just begrudgingly acknowledge its importance and respect it for that.

but yeah Minecraft would not be a top tier popular game on most websites where the average age is greater than 13

charmander6000 posted...

While I would agree that Minecraft is this generation's Pac-Man, I think it would defeat Spider-Man on most sites (at the very least it would be a lot closer).

you dont think 59-41 is close?

this isnt good from spiderman. Another 1st party titles like god of war and TLOU would be destroying minecraft

MechanicalWall posted...

Honestly hats off to Octopath. I was badmouthing its strength pretty bad last round, but it's legit. Which is mindblowing to me because it seemed like the pinnacle of a 'come and go' game, but I guess it must have had SOME staying power.

i mean it had to have some strength to take down undertale.

yes undertale got antivoted but it still needed to take something of ok strength to topple it.

also ive said this many times

any exclusive switch game is going to be legit. Espeically rpg. Look at xeno 2. And even though i hate that game. That game is a lot stronger than octo.

Don't look now but Octopath is slowly cutting. 75 votes in the last 80 minutes.

Octopath Traveler by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 48.21% | -125 | -125
22:00 | 48.29% | -80 | -205
23:00 | 48.12% | -68 | -273
00:00 | 47.98% | -67 | -340
01:00 | 51.18% | +35 | -305
02:00 | 48.05% | -49 | -354
03:00 | 51.76% | +39 | -315
04:00 | 52.77% | +50 | -265

Octopath just had the best hour by percentage for either game so far.

Shovel Knight might run away again when NA gets up, looking at the map.

Of course it's no guarantee.

Good I managed to get everything right yesterday, unfortunately I have Undertale in Round 3 so oops.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Shovel Knight might run away again when NA gets up, looking at the map.

Of course it's no guarantee.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv13gl0a-FA (click to expand) 

Octopath Traveler by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 48.21% | -125 | -125
22:00 | 48.29% | -80 | -205
23:00 | 48.12% | -68 | -273
00:00 | 47.98% | -67 | -340
01:00 | 51.18% | +35 | -305
02:00 | 48.05% | -49 | -354
03:00 | 51.76% | +39 | -315
04:00 | 52.77% | +50 | -265
05:00 | 52.35% | +36 | -229

The past half hour has been quite seady.

Alright technically Shovel Knight is winning by more than it was before I went to sleep, but I'm going to assume it was up way more and Octopath has been winning the night vote. Time for NA to wake up.

It’s kind of like Celeste where the indie game starts to lose ground after leading for a few hours. I do hope NA actually shows up this time though, they weren’t helpful in that match...

I'm a bit torn since I feel Shovel Knight probably deserves to get to round 3 a bit more, but as someone who had Undertale Octopath would be much better for my guru chances haha.

I do think Octopath is probably the star of the contest so far in terms of unexpected strength, after Shovel Knight annihilating Dragon's Dogma. While it definitely availed of some antivoting against Undertale, it's also clear that Octopath could only actually get that win on its own strength. Bravely Default looking pretty good also helps it out since you would expect Octopath to be the stronger of the two.

If Shovel Knight blows this after Celeste blew it (and Cuphead might blow it too), then I feel safe calling indie games choke artists.

Well, Shovel Knight is a lot more up than Celeste was at this point of the match. I also don't expect Rayman and Octopath to have similar trends.

I also don't think we should expect all indies to have similar trends

Oh dear. It looks like COVID has infiltrated the contest leaderboard

If Shovel Knight does lose then indie games will have lost one more clutch match than they won. It's effectively even. All the more evidence of why we need to stop judging games by their publishing model!

Though to be fair, Shovel Knight and Celeste have more in common than most indie games here, though Celeste is of course closest to Super Meat Boy.

So I woke up, checked thy results. All are expected...Except OT. Now this I didn't expected.