Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1341

KamikazePotato posted...

Octodad Traveler

They made another Octodad game?

Hmmm...Holding serve.

Tough match day. 36 people fell off the top 50 some of those users being former second place DarkFalconX, ckingch, hungover, Cody11533, Amyson, mcflubbin, startme_up, Outer_space, Myst2, hockeydude15, DJ_Hyperfresh, Board8_BOP, WarioMan222, Yojimbooh, AughtforNaught, Paratroopa1, Webby-sama, PlasmaKappa, TanookieKirby, mrdean55, Safer_777, MuchiMuchiPork, DMoCTTA, Lockes_Ragnarok, SegavsCapcom, ImaPC, H_H_J_J, the_real_eggman, FjalarSaxi, barrylyndon55, StealThisSheen and captainjeff87.

8 users took a 2 point hit a survived. Former third place Matt_J100, JONALEON1, aphorism, Joelypoely, spiritomolto, TheMightyPeanut, Bossman_Coolguy and one other person scored 6 points but stay on the Top 50.

Former first place habadofreit25 will not go down so easily. They only score half points but still cling on to the Top 50.

Congrats to the 5 users who scored full points. Current first place triton6783, current second place BobbyEvans, current third place MegatokyoEd, FierceDeity0 and CmonMan got all 8 points!

Holy s***, I'm actually winning, this is f***ing insane.

Shovel Knight is really good and people should play it!

Depending on where 7R placed in said bracket the best it could hope for is 2nd place. BotW is just too strong on ZeldaFAQs

I wonder if DK would have gotten 20 here

Here's some fun with numbers:

The day with Bloodborne received 27764 total votes. The previous day's matches got 26240. The difference is 1524 votes. Let's assume the difference is comprised of the rallied votes Bloodborne brought in yesterday. The result yesterday was:

Bloodborne - 16076 votes - 57.90%
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 11688 votes - 42.10%

Let's assume that 90% of the rallied voters went for Bloodborne and 10% defected to Fire Emblem. Remove those and you get:

Bloodborne - 14704 votes - 56.04%
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 11536 votes - 43.96%

So about a 2% difference.

I don't know if this is good for Ultimate or bad.

Either way LBW got so screwed by the bracket.

Trend charts:

Time | ME2 | FO4 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 73.99% | 26.01% | 519 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 69.12% | 30.88% | 3446 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 67.17% | 32.83% | 8481 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 66.17% | 33.83% | 4100 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 66.48% | 33.52% | 6479 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 65.96% | 34.04% | 5259 | (17:00-24:00)

Fallout 4 truly has one of the worst board votes we've ever seen.

Time | Borderlands | Horizon | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 49.33% | 50.67% | 519 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 46.43% | 53.57% | 3446 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 45.45% | 54.55% | 8481 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 41.63% | 58.37% | 4096 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 45.15% | 54.85% | 6481 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 45.35% | 54.65% | 5259 | (17:00-24:00)

Horizon gets a nice bump during the time when the rally started, but was it just natural trends?

Time | RE2 | DOOM | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 57.80% | 42.20% | 519 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 59.05% | 40.95% | 3446 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 58.91% | 41.09% | 8481 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 57.05% | 42.95% | 4098 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 55.86% | 44.14% | 6480 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 56.95% | 43.05% | 5259 | (17:00-24:00)

RE2 has a good night vote and a bad day vote, as usual.

Time | Awakening | Bloodborne | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 48.75% | 51.25% | 519 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 44.98% | 55.02% | 3446 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 45.54% | 54.46% | 8483 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 38.46% | 61.54% | 4085 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 38.70% | 61.30% | 6491 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 41.68% | 58.32% | 5259 | (17:00-24:00)

Hey there rally

There is no way FFVIIR is gonna be THAT strong. Not just for some Episode 1 game no matter how decent it is.

Yeah, poor ALBW.

Snubbed from the 2015 bracket and then this.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I don't know if this is good for Ultimate or bad.

Either way LBW got so screwed by the bracket.

I think it's fine. A Zelda game is only going to be so weak and is only going to get SFF'd so hard.

(but I ain't crying no tears for a Zelda game being eliminated early!)

pjbasis posted...

There is no way FFVIIR is gonna be THAT strong. Not just for some Episode 1 game no matter how decent it is.

we want to love Final Fantasy again and FFVIIR gave us a good reason to do it

I probably take FF7 Remake to lose to every 1 Seed that isn't GTAV and maybe Dark Souls.

KamikazePotato posted...

So about a 2% difference.

That's about the same as SSBM got against GSC.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Yeah, poor ALBW.

Snubbed from the 2015 bracket and then this.

We're never going to get a good read on handheld Zelda, unless we go for Game of the 90s, and we can get Link's Awakening a good spot.

It was a good run for octopath. At least I was close to the upset of the bracket

Link's Awakening already had a good spot in a contest and it did demolished MMX while getting uncomfortably close to FF6.

Link's Awakening could've gotten into THIS contest...!

KamikazePotato posted...

Link's Awakening already had a good spot in a contest and it did demolished MMX while getting uncomfortably close to FF6.

I know, and it's tragic that handheld Zelda's only spot was the four ways.

yeah I'm feeling better about Shovel Knight now

Shovel Knight is definitely one of the few indie games that deserve to go to Round 3. I have OT going to R3 in my bracket but if SK makes it and defies the usual indie voting trends I'll be happy

KamikazePotato posted...

I probably take FF7 Remake to lose to every 1 Seed that isn't GTAV and maybe Dark Souls.

Mass Effect 2 > Dark Souls is a nuclear take if I've ever seen one.

Mass Effect 2 is back after that performance!

I honestly forgot Mass Effect 2 existed.

It might beat Dark Souls still, anyway.

What a weird update after the last two.

It was mostly just Octopath bringing in extra votes, Shovel Knight did about the same.

Congrats @SBAllen on JUST making the leaderboard.

And wow, looks like Octopath Traveler is legit.

Today's match pics are really colorful.

Don't know why I'm pointing it out.

Look like Shovel Knight's put this one away (because what are trends, anyway?).

good updates for everyone

KamikazePotato posted...

Look like Shovel Knight's put this one away (because what are trends, anyway?).

trends are different in the first hour when so few people have bracket points at stake!

So does Octopath Traveler beat FF15 or is Hollow Knight stronger than Shovel Knight?

LeonhartFour posted...

FFVIIR > BotW

okay maybe not but based on how good it is so far and the reception it's gotten I'd say it could have been a top 5 game easy

well if the 40 yr old FF7 fanboys didnt have a nostalgic stick up their ass it could have

FF7R is a great game. Better than the original imo and i am one of the very few who only played the original up to that shotgun mini boss

Team Rocket Elite posted...

So does Octopath Traveler beat FF15 or is Hollow Knight stronger than Shovel Knight?

id say octopath definitely beats FFXV

you have to take into consideration the type of game hollow knight was and the anti votes for 15.

octo is a more loved game in terms of the genre and its also a jrpg. So those who enjoyed FFXV might have wnjoyed Octo more than FFXV

and at this point id say HK is stronger than SK. HK is newer and more relevant. SK is older.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

id say octopath definitely beats FFXV

you have to take into consideration the type of game hollow knight was and the anti votes for 15.

octo is a more loved game in terms of the genre and its also a jrpg. So those who enjoyed FFXV might have wnjoyed Octo more than FFXV

and at this point id say HK is stronger than SK. HK is newer and more relevant. SK is older.

two contradicting opinions

I have this sinking feeling that Dragon's Dogma is really bad and this whole fourpack is weak.

Gall posted...

I have this sinking feeling that Dragon's Dogma is really bad and this whole fourpack is weak.

I mean, the winner is getting slaughtered by Odyssey next round either way!

now it's just a matter of whether they can outperform DMC5

I would say that Square Enix hierarchy makes FFXV beat Octopath anyways. If there's such a thing.

At least Shovel Knight is getting to win two matches this time after being subjected to the Captain Toad screwjob the last time.

WhiteLens posted...

I would say that Square Enix hierarchy makes FFXV beat Octopath anyways. If there's such a thing.

it's not as rigid as the Nintendo hierarchy but it does seem to exist

Team Rocket Elite posted...

So does Octopath Traveler beat FF15 or is Hollow Knight stronger than Shovel Knight?

Octopath / Undertale / FF15 / Hollow Knight / Shovel Knight are all probably pretty close in strength. I would say Undertale is the clear bottom-rung of that ladder while Shovel Knight is PROBABLY the top rung but I'm not sure.

Shovel Knight was in 2015 and it wasn't that bad:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6101-best-game-ever-day-13-gta-san-andreas-vs-shovel-knight

That's not strong but it's not terrible.

Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4
Registered Vote Result:
Mass Effect 2 - 6076 (67.51%)
Fallout 4 - 2924 (32.49%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mass Effect 2 - 6416 (65.70%)
Fallout 4 - 3349 (34.30%)

Borderlands 2 vs. Horizon Zero Dawn
Registered Vote Result:
Borderlands 2 - 4087 (45.42%)
Horizon Zero Dawn - 4911 (54.58%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Borderlands 2 - 4297 (44.00%)
Horizon Zero Dawn - 5470 (56.00%)

Resident Evil 2 vs. DOOM
Registered Vote Result:
Resident Evil 2 - 5377 (59.75%)
DOOM - 3622 (40.25%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Resident Evil 2 - 5230 (53.55%)
DOOM - 4536 (46.45%)

Fire Emblem: Awakening vs. Bloodborne
Registered Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 4095 (45.51%)
Bloodborne - 4904 (54.49%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 3498 (35.82%)
Bloodborne - 6268 (64.18%)

We got our first notable rally of the contest. Bloodborne did almost 10% better with anonymous users due to the rally. Based on yesterday's percentage of registered user votes, I estimate there were about 1900 rallied votes. Subtracting 1900 votes from Bloodborne's anonymous user vote totals gives it only 55.53% among anonymous users, which sounds about right to me.

Rally spillover most likely affected DOOM based on these splits, as DOOM did over 6% better with anonymous users. At 12:00 AM EST in the match (before the rally caught fire), there was only about a 3% split between registered and anonymous users.

Horizon Zero Dawn did about 1.5% better with anonymous users, but this is also certainly affected by rally spillover as well. The splits for this match at 12:00 AM EST have Horizon getting 54.19% with registered users and 53.32% with anonymous users. Compared to the final results where Horizon ends up doing better with anonymous users overall.

Mass Effect 2 does about 2% better with registered users. This seems to be the least rally affected match because the splits at 12:00 AM EST have Mass Effect 2 getting 66.11% with anonymous users, which isn't too different from the final anonymous user result.

The percentage of registered users dropped off sharply from the first day of round 2, with 47.96% registered users in yesterday's matches.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

aw yeah Shovel Knight

Luster Soldier, based on that, what would you say the final percentages would have been without the rally?

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Luster Soldier, based on that, what would you say the final percentages would have been without the rally?

In all of the rally tainted matches or just Fire Emblem/Bloodborne?

Fire Emblem/Bloodborne looks like it would have been about a 55/45 win for Bloodborne. The rally would have inflated Bloodborne by about 3%.

WhiteLens posted...

Congrats @SBAllen on JUST making the leaderboard.

And wow, looks like Octopath Traveler is legit.

Sadly I have Minecraft over Spider-Man so easy come easy go. Looking good on the other 3 matches today though so far.

SBAllen posted...

Sadly I have Minecraft over Spider-Man so easy come easy go.

this is what happens when you underestimate the potential of all fictional characters

Spider-Man for CBXI

SBAllen posted...

Sadly I have Minecraft over Spider-Man so easy come easy go. Looking good on the other 3 matches today though so far.

Are you actually prize eligible or do you just do it for fun?

LusterSoldier posted...

In all of the rally tainted matches or just Fire Emblem/Bloodborne?

Fire Emblem/Bloodborne looks like it would have been about a 55/45 win for Bloodborne. The rally would have inflated Bloodborne by about 3%.

All four if it isn't much trouble.