Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1340

So does FF14 have a chance against Mario Kart? It looked legit in round 1 and I'd hesitate to take Mario Kart over Hollow Knight.

Chrono Trigger is stronger than OoT. If OoT can win, so can CT.

I don't see FFVII falling to the point of almost losing to FFVI.

If your logic is 'OoT would have underperformed early on then hulked up against real competition' then that's fine (although I disagree with that and struggle to remember instances where we've actually seen that happen)

You can't use stats or trends to try and argue against CT>OoT in 2015. It doesn't work. Literally every number points to CT being superior that year. If your logic is 'OoT would have underperformed early on then hulked up against real competition' then that's fine (although I disagree with that and struggle to remember instances where we've actually seen that happen) but that's about the only argument that can be used to argue in favor of OoT that year.

The bonus polls don't mean much because we don't know how to adjust them for the rally spillover. The four polls are here:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6178-best-game-ever-bonus-smash-bros-melee-vs-super-mario-rpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6179-best-game-ever-bonus-chrono-trigger-vs-final-fantasy-vi
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6180-best-game-ever-bonus-pokemon-red-blue-vs-super-mario-64
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6181-best-game-ever-bonus-final-fantasy-vii-vs-zelda-ocarina-of

The RBY vs Mario 64 one is obvious nonsense. The others might be off a normal result as well.

I don't trust most of these polls, even the ones in the contest.

You can't use stats or trends to try and argue against CT>OoT in 2015. It doesn't work. Literally every number points to CT being superior that year. If your logic is 'OoT would have underperformed early on then hulked up against real competition' then that's fine (although I disagree with that and struggle to remember instances where we've actually seen that happen) but that's about the only argument that can be used to argue in favor of OoT that year.

it also suggests that FFVII would barely be able to handle FFIX and FFIX would beat FFVI which is nonsense

bonus polls are not reliable data

then there's no basis for having any sort of discussion

it also suggests that FFVII would barely be able to handle FFIX which is nonsense

bonus polls are not reliable data

My only problem with this is using stats from 2015 to predict popularity in 2020 without taking into account that Crono Trigger's popularity has at best stayed the same if not gone a bit down due to newer users and changing demographics whereas the Zelda Franchises popularity has gone sky high since Botw released( as can be seen in the 2018 character battles).

Sure, I guess you can just ignore inconvenient polls if you want. But that's no different than squexa saying he doesn't trust the other polls.

Lol Botw is about to hit 85%, I dont see how any non rallied game beats in this contest.

it's also like taking that bonus poll where Santa Claus got 40% on Link and arguing that Santa would beat half the Noble Nine

because, you know, he wouldn't

They're not

BotW is so absurdly stronger than everything else in this bracket it's insane.

1. It was post-match spillover, which still is a factor but not anywhere near as distorting as day-of-match spillover
2. Undertale spillover helped Nintendo entities more than non-Nintendo entities so if anything OoT does a little worse in a normal setting

Outside of OoT, FFVII and CT does an other game beat it on this site?

The real issue here is refusing to acknowledge CT/FFX SFF.

The real issue here is refusing to acknowledge CT/FFX SFF.

FF10 and SSBM have largely been evenly matched during their entire lifetime. Using registered voters results from SSBM vs CT puts SSBM at roughly even with FF10 which is the expected results for non-SFF'd FF10 vs non-rallied SSBM.

SBAllen said:
Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%

For registered users. On top of that we know from recent contests that registered users were likely to favor Nintendo in that match so that probably overrates SSBM by a percent or two. If CT is significantly weaker than OoT, it will also push SSBM below KH and FF9.

OoT/FF9 might have been influenced by rally spillover, but two things:

1. It was post-match spillover, which still is a factor but not anywhere near as distorting as day-of-match spillover
2. Undertale spillover helped Nintendo entities more than non-Nintendo entities so if anything OoT does a little worse in a normal setting

I'd rather have that and be certain than this whole "Pfffffffft even though CT kept outperforming OoT there's no way it would actually win!"

The best argument I've seen revolves around Nick's CT fangroup on Facebook. That actually could have brought in voters who'd back CT first and foremost. If it's an entirely intra-GameFAQs match, whatever Nintendo contingent had been supporting CT at that point would naturally switch over.

Remake Chrono Trigger with Octopath's engine

Instant top game

Remake Chrono Trigger with Octopath's engine

Instant top game

You should be thanking Melee and Undertale for keeping the spark of hope alive! Otherwise, Ocarina marches to a 55% finals victory and there's little left to talk about.