Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338

Advokaiser posted...

Friendly reminder that HG/SS is no joke amongst the hardcore Pokémon fanbase:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/259372-pokemon-sword/77536263

Way too small of a sample size.

Celeste has 54% in America and Canada, 70% in Mexico, and it's even in Europe. I think it should be ok. Hopefully. I would like to make a top 50 appearance before round 2 destroys me.

I have Awakening > Bloodborne, GTA > Cuphead, New Vegas > Dark Souls 3, Sonic Mania > Super Meat Boy, RE2 > Doom, and KH3 > Portal 2. I would change all of those picks if I could. I also eventually have GTA > Persona 4, Last of Us > Dark Souls, and Skyrim over two Nintendo games plus Witcher 3. Puke.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Way too small of a sample size.

150 is decent. The sample size isn't as much of a problem as the nature of the sample itself / the weirdly organized poll with missing options.

I was so not ready to play an artsy puzzle game (INSIDE) and see some underwater ringu girl.

Currently Night in the Woods only has to get 26.8% on Bayonetta 2 for HGSS = Nier:A. And HGSS is rising along with Nier falling. Not only should the match be close, Pokemon may be the favorite.

tennisboy213 posted...

Currently Night in the Woods only has to get 26.8% on Bayonetta 2 for HGSS = Nier:A. And HGSS is rising along with Nier falling. Not only should the match be close, Pokemon may be the favorite.

Pokemon was always the favorite. This is about whether or not it can beat Skyrim.

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=112

I just looked at the Guru stats for the match and I'm shocked Pokemon is that big a favorite. I guess it's just been a vocal minority talking up Nier.

KamikazePotato posted...

Technically this one wasn't debated! Everyone took Dragon Age!

Believe it or not, almost 20% of Gurus picked Ori to win there. Not that I know why, since not a single one of them provided any sort of argument for it (thus why you feel like everyone took Dragon Age), but I guess the actual match proved them right.

Nintendogs posted...

So do we give Celeste the Turd of the Round? Or at least runner-up?

Nah, people fooled themselves into thinking this was an easy win for Celeste when it never was, especially not after some of the results we've seen in more recent days. Even from an 'objective' Oracle perspective, the typical Celeste pick was in the high 50s, making it not as far off as quite a few games to date.

LeonhartFour posted...

Nope, never.

I don't get why you keep peddling this lie. Rayman's most directly relevant result is 28.5% on Squall in 2013, which would likely be higher 1-on-1, considering Commander Video was the third wheel there. I know you've said some people just won't vote for Squall no matter what, which is fair, but Rayman's percent there isn't that far off from Akuma's 32% on Squall in 2010. Sure, it's not incredible for a character in his prime, who's fallen out of relevance since, but I struggle to see how it isn't at least respectable.

tennisboy213 posted...

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=112

I just looked at the Guru stats for the match and I'm shocked Pokemon is that big a favorite. I guess it's just been a vocal minority talking up Nier.

Nier: Automata looked okay but not great in GotY polls:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4

This performance on Bayonetta 2 is way better than those results would suggest Nier: Automata could do. Like I don't have Nier in my bracket but I have a hard time seeing it lose to HGSS now.

Automata beating HG/SS would be amazing and I don’t care if it would kill my bracket.

i think Persona 5 weirdly enough might have been sff'ing Nier somewhat. doubt it loses even back in 2017 to horizon 1 on 1.

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't get why you keep peddling this lie. Rayman's most directly relevant result is 28.5% on Squall in 2013, which would likely be higher 1-on-1, considering Commander Video was the third wheel there. I know you've said some people just won't vote for Squall no matter what, which is fair, but Rayman's percent there isn't that far off from Akuma's 32% on Squall in 2010. Sure, it's not incredible for a character in his prime, who's fallen out of relevance since, but I struggle to see how it isn't at least respectable.

You haven't shown anything that suggests that Rayman has done well in any of his appearances. 28.5% against Squall is nothing but a sign of being high-end fodder at best. That's why Celeste was the favorite coming into the match. I like Rayman and many of his games, but I can't deny they haven't done so well in any past polls.

Seems like Rayman has cut a bit now, his deficit is now under 300 votes.

Celest and Rayman are pretty low in the strength list here, not sure what people are trying to argue

I'm not sure why you'd ever take Celeste to be high-end fodder on GameFAQs, so yes, Rayman's result there is perfectly respectable, and respectable is all it really needed to be a close match.

swordz9 posted...

Automata beating HG/SS would be amazing and I don’t care if it would kill my bracket.

I hope Nier wins. Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver was forgettable.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

This performance on Bayonetta 2 is way better than those results would suggest Nier: Automata could do. Like I don't have Nier in my bracket but I have a hard time seeing it lose to HGSS now.

I mean, 2015 suggests Pokemon Gold gets 74% on Bayonetta 2, back when it was a Wii U exclusive and before Bayo was announced for Smash. Now, we have Nier getting 68% on a very likely stronger Bayonetta 2 in anticipation of a match between what has got to be a weaker version of Pokemon Gold.

There's some wiggle room here (especially since Gold and Bayo were opposite sides of the BGE3 bracket), but it really comes down to how well of a proxy HeartGold is for the original. On the bright side for Pokemon, Night in the Woods doesn't seem like it's getting much in the way of remake anti-votes.

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't get why you keep peddling this lie. Rayman's most directly relevant result is 28.5% on Squall in 2013

because I already explained why this doesn't matter the first time you said it

someone had to suck up the vacuum of votes and it sure as heck wasn't going to be Commander Video

plus there's a chance 2013 Squall is weaker than the 2010 Squall who put up that number on Akuma; 2018 showed that Vivi beating out Squall for 2nd against Red might not have been a fluke

regardless 2013 is such a mess of weird results even apart from Draven that I have a hard time taking a lot of it seriously (Squirtle > Cloud still blows my mind that it actually happened)

Rayman slowly trying to claw his way back

Should we even bother voting for RDR2 vs P5 after P4G vs RDR?

5 cuts in a row 60 votes total

we're officially in the Euro zone

Rayman is almost doubling Celeste in the UK

tennisboy213 posted...

5 cuts in a row 60 votes total

we're officially in the Euro zone

Rayman is almost doubling Celeste in the UK

Can Europe hand Rayman the victory? Was there a match where Europe decided the outcome?

France just flipped to Rayman. Celeste is winning comfortably in North America so Rayman will have to continue cutting, take the lead, and probably build up a lead of several hundred votes if it wants to stand a chance here.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=7347&num=2

For a general idea of what the trends will be like.

Celeste erecting a 200 vote BARRIER!

rayman breaking through that barrier.

Betrayed by my own compatriots...

Celeste by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 51.70% | +107 | +107
22:00 | 51.78% | +75 | +182
23:00 | 51.25% | +41 | +223
00:00 | 52.01% | +58 | +281
01:00 | 50.93% | +27 | +308
02:00 | 49.25% | -18 | +290
03:00 | 48.93% | -20 | +270
04:00 | 44.94% | -96 | +174

Rayman really made a move in the last hour.

Celeste noooo

Both are top tier platformers but I am rooting for Celeste more (slightly better game and bracket choice)

Just checked in on this match again and oh no

If Rayman continues at this rate, it will take the lead in about 90 minutes and have a ~300 vote lead by the time North America wakes up

come on Raymond! Justify my belief in you!

Another cut of 13

C'mon my European brethren!

Now this is suddenly giving us the match that Rocket League and DBZ Fighters attempted to give us. Cool. We were all just waiting for round 2, but then the final day gives us the best match of round 1.

Celeste by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 51.70% | +107 | +107
22:00 | 51.78% | +75 | +182
23:00 | 51.25% | +41 | +223
00:00 | 52.01% | +58 | +281
01:00 | 50.93% | +27 | +308
02:00 | 49.25% | -18 | +290
03:00 | 48.93% | -20 | +270
04:00 | 44.94% | -96 | +174
05:00 | 45.19% | -76 | +98

Big cut to close out the hour and the lead is under 100. Based on the last hour, Rayman takes the lead at 6:20. Based on the last 2 hours, Rayman takes the lead at 6:10. Based on the last 30 minutes, Rayman takes the lead at 6:00.

Lead below 100 now!

Down to 65.

So this looks to be the hour where Rayman takes the lead.

We'll see what it can build before NA gets up.

And as I say that, nothing really happened the last two updates

This match is such a tease.

Woke up, checked the results. A close match? Of course with USA having Celeste winning by a lot this will change.

If this is the best Rayman can do while NA sleeps then it's already over.

Bah

Come on Rayman do the business

It's like the 3rd best game in the bracket

Just realised i picked Celeste because i thought it was a completely different Indie game. Looks like i might get lucky there.

Celeste by the hour:

time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
21:00 | 51.70% | +107 | +107
22:00 | 51.78% | +75 | +182
23:00 | 51.25% | +41 | +223
00:00 | 52.01% | +58 | +281
01:00 | 50.93% | +27 | +308
02:00 | 49.25% | -18 | +290
03:00 | 48.93% | -20 | +270
04:00 | 44.94% | -96 | +174
05:00 | 45.19% | -76 | +98
06:00 | 50.36% | +5 | +103

Celeste actually wins that hour by 5 votes.

XIII_rocks posted...

Bah

Come on Rayman do the business

It's like the 3rd best game in the bracket

Same here. Very surprised it's a tight vote right now.

Its america with bad taste voting for celeste

rayman absolutely deserves this. Even if i have celeste in my bracket

Yeah, I think Celeste has this. It's a shame for the match if Rayman isn't able to take the lead at any point. I think if it hasn't when the next hour begins, it wont.

Also, I'd be happy to see Rayman get a win, even if I haven't cared much for it since 2, which was a great game, that I also have nostalgic memories of, but Celeste is really damn good. It surely deserves it.

Rayman has taken a huge chunk out of the lead the past 3 updates, for what it's worth.

The updates are all over the place. Thanks to the low votals. there's instances of these two trading 60% updates back and forth.

XIII_rocks posted...

Bah

Come on Rayman do the business

It's like the 3rd best game in the bracket

So is Celeste! Like I was saying this may be the highest quality match in all of round 1, the other contender (Nier Automata vs. Bayonetta 2) is here as well.