Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338

Poor Uncharted 4. Unfortunate bracket placement. I would easily take it against every other 13 seed.

Oh well, at least I get bracket points then.

UltimaterializerX posted...

@Lightning_Strikes

I'm about to play INSIDE. Anything I should know?

Not much, but play it as uninterrupted as possible, even marathon it if you gave enough time. If you choose to go for the secret ending in another playthrough, use a FAQ because CV it can be a pain otherwise.

Just wanna say well played for that MK8 change.

Yeah, changing from Uncharted 4 winning two rounds to Mario Kart 8 winning two rounds was a "listen to Board 8" change that really paid off.

So woke up, checked the results. The love for Nintendo in this site is unreal.

No new messages? Then again I guess that everything is doing as expected so there is that.

Safer_777 posted...

No new messages? Then again I guess that everything is doing as expected so there is that.

We're all just ready for round 2 at this point!

Thank god round 2 is almost here.

Allen should have just given the top seeds like BotW/Witcher3/etc a bye into the later rounds like he did with CBX.

gamer man posted...

Will celeste have a chance to upset pokemon?

I can at least answer this one for you

No

squexa posted...

Thank god round 2 is almost here.

Allen should have just given the top seeds like BotW/Witcher3/etc a bye into the later rounds like he did with CBX.

And include more fodder?

Alright, regarding FINALS CONTENDER Skyrim...

I'm satisfied by this final percentage. Given what other top games have been doing, Skyrim needed to shoot for at least the low 80s, and it got there in fine order. That isn't the problem. The problem is that reprehensible early vote. I feel that the board vote can sometimes function as a precursor of sorts for how the site in general may feel in later rounds (I've long since believed that the site's attitude towards individual entrants can shift during the length of the contest, especially the tail end), and that Skyrim may be a victim of this against respected darlings like Dark Souls.

Essentially, I'd be happier with this performance if Skyrim had the exact same final percentage (hell, I'd take a half-percent lower) but with more consistent trends.

A lot of the heavy hitters haven't had good board votes, Dark Souls included. Not as bad as this, mind you, but I'm not exactly worried about Skyrim being down 60/40 at the freeze or something.

The heavy hitters with good board votes also tend to be on the other side of the bracket. MK8 and HGSS just lack the raw strength to compete with Skyrim. Skyrim vs SMO or SSBU would have been interesting but they never meet.

I don't think it'll make much of a difference outside of rally potential.

In terms of entrants changing strength (bandwagon effect etc.) that's mostly reserved for underdog entrants which games like Skyrim/Dark Souls/Witcher 3 aren't except against Breath of the Wild.

If anything I might say a bad early vote could be a sign that a lot of people are anti-voting Skyrim which could hurt its ability to go for a big blowout. Skyrim is near 84% despite this.

MechanicalWall posted...

I can at least answer this one for you

No

:(

Oof, Mario Kart looking rough here. FF14 has round 2 in the bag, and rightly so

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

If Link/Ganondorf happens in 2003, we may not get ANY of the awful SFF matches set up, thus saving the entire 2004 contest.

SC2K4 was such a waste. GameFAQs was in its prime, we had three S-tier contests in a row, and then...that happened.

Outside of Ryu/Jill and Frog's nail-biters, that contest was the epitome of wasted potential.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Skyrim vs SMO or SSBU would have been interesting but they never meet.

SMO's placement in the bracket was criminally bad. Cakewalk matches until it likely gets thumped by SSBU.

I also wish Nier and DQ11 could swap spots. DQ11 vs Pokémon would've be interesting, and a Skyrim vs. DQ11 division final would have a nifty WRPG vs. Traditional JRPG angle.

Automata would beat DQXI

LeonhartFour posted...

Automata would beat DQXI

Automata isn't on Switch.

so you're taking DQXI over anything that isn't on Switch then

I know we know the franchise, but Uncharted 4 is an unknown quantity and is generally viewed as the best Uncharted, so it could be stronger than the others. I expect Mario Kart 8 was stronger than Wii version was in 10.

I also don't expect much of FFXIV. It might win a lot of votes here being from the franchise it is, but next round it's facing something we all know and I'd think it was one of the least played of its series.

Last i checked 2 was meant to be the best Uncharted.

LeonhartFour posted...

so you're taking DQXI over anything that isn't on Switch then

I'm taking DQ11 based on the fact that it's available to a Nintendo audience, has greater name (series) value, is represented in SSBU, and is typically considered the 2nd-best JRPG of this console generation.

I also don't buy Nier's strength. I think it's easily the weakest 2 Seed.

The Dragon Quest series name value is very low here. DQ8 is the only other game in the series we give a crap about here.

also you know what's typically considered one of the best games (not just JRPGs) of the generation

NieR Automata

It has a better reputation among gamers than DQXI does.

I also don't think Hero being in Smash helps DQXI out in any meaningful way

I would have probably picked Nier over DQXI pre-contest, but after underestimating the DQ series in 2015 I don't know if I'd want to do so again. My stupid gut pick to win DQ's half division was The Walking Dead of all things, then I changed to Monster Hunter, then DQ.

You act like picking P3 > DQ8 was such a disastrous pick

it was a 1 point match that DQ8 won with less than 55%

Nier > Pokemon tbh

Doesn't help that Dragon Quest was my gut pick to win because I figured Dragon Quest's name value would beat out Persona only to change it.

Though really I should have just seen it as an 8/9 matchup between two cult RPGs and picked the top option.

LeonhartFour posted...

The Dragon Quest series name value is very low here. DQ8 is the only other game in the series we give a crap about here.

Not as low as the Nier series name value. Nier is still niche. If casuals are voting based off "Oh, I've heard of that franchise," they're voting DQ.

also you know what's typically considered one of the best games (not just JRPGs) of the generation

NieR Automata

It has a better reputation among gamers than DQXI does.

Both are considered great, yes. But Nier has a better reputation? How? Based on what?

I also don't think Hero being in Smash helps DQXI out in any meaningful way

Exposure always helps. Having a character in Smash is a bigger deal on this site than having a character in Soul Calibur.

Nier Automata sold like 4-5 million copies. That's not niche.

plasmabeam posted...

Both are considered great, yes. But Nier has a better reputation? How? Based on what?

I'm speaking among gamers in general, not just here

but yeah 2B would clobber any DQ protagonist pretty hard, even after they've been in Smash

but really the main point was that expecting Dragon Quest to beat anything that isn't obscure fodder simply because it's Dragon Quest is a big mistake

GameFAQs by and large does not care about Dragon Quest. DQ8 and DQ11 are the exceptions, not the rule, and even then they're not THAT strong.

Nier Automata sold more than Dragon Quest XI. And Persona 5. And every JRPG in the last decade that wasn't a Final Fantasy.

EDIT: A google search has shown me that DQ11 has still sold more than Nier Automata worldwide, although that's largely because of how insane Japan goes for that game so if you're just talking about a western hemisphere sort of thing then Nier takes the cake.

So what you're saying is Nier > Pokemon

Nier might well flop to be honest. It's been in one poll and it got rolled by Horizon (which did murder Fortnite, but so could a lot of games).

Edit: Oh it was also in a poll next year with its XB1 release... nothing too strong from it there either (extrapolated it got 38% on RDR2) although I wouldn't judge re-release polls too much.

Kotetsu534 posted...

Nier might well flop to be honest. It's been in one poll and it got rolled by Horizon (which did murder Fortnite, but so could a lot of games).

Im not sure which one you are talking about but the 2017 Playstation poll has Persona 5 in it, so there's probably LFF on some level.

Would Nier Automata beat DQ8?

davidponte posted...

Nier > Pokemon tbh

I hope so. For this sites reputation.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Would Nier Automata beat DQ8?

It would destroy DQVIII

DQXI is now strongest DQ game. Thats not a debate.

Kotetsu534 posted...

Nier might well flop to be honest. It's been in one poll and it got rolled by Horizon (which did murder Fortnite, but so could a lot of games).

Edit: Oh it was also in a poll next year with its XB1 release... nothing too strong from it there either (extrapolated it got 38% on RDR2) although I wouldn't judge re-release polls too much.

I wouldn't judge GOTY polls period. Also Nier must have been SFF'd hard by Persona. Sexy Game SFF.

Characters =/= games, but there is overlap, and I don't think 2B would have looked that great if we didn't like NieR here.

I know people are looking forward to round 2, but today's matches shouldn't be slept on. We have another indie darling ready to impress, sleeper hit Nier Automata looking to prove its strength, and some PokeFEAR to round things out.

Pokemon vs. Woods: Obviously, Night in the Woods won't be worth much. Question is, how much will Pokemon be worth this year? We've seen enough underperformances against fodder so far to know that the franchise backlash factor (FBF) is something to be feared, but will a remake of a 90s game be immune? Don't be surprised if Pokemon disappoints here, but if it goes big, watch out.

Celeste vs. Rayman: Celeste should be up there with the Shovel Knights and Cupheads of the indie world, and it's in a prime position to go big against a lesser platformer. Some might question why it matters how strong Celeste can be when it's just running into Pokemon round 2. I would wait to ask that question until we see what Hollow Knight does against Final Fantasy.

Nier vs. Bayonetta: I have my eye on Nier as a game that could punch above its weight in the Game of the Decade setting. There's a chance that it won't look great here since Bayonetta 2 is better than most fodder, but I'm hoping it goes big.

Also, Divinity should go big on Hearthstone for obvious reasons. It's a big night.

Personally I want to see what the hype for Celeste is all about.

I want with my heart when I picked Rayman over Celeste...

Outside chance?

If Celeste were to lose I am calling it uncontested turd of Round 1

Nothing else would even come close

I've got Rayman too, but I do prefer Celeste. Good games either way, let's see what happens.

Also, Night in the Woods is about to get broken in half, but that game has some of the best character dialogue in gaming.

Ranticoot posted...

If Celeste were to lose I am calling it uncontested turd of Round 1

Nothing else would even come close

Nah it's still Dragon Age

62.65% had Journey

55.86% had Mario Kart

pokemon stop please its already dead