Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338

A classic match for poll 1338

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1338-north-division-round-2-ganondorf-vs-magus

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Tag.

Just think how much our history changes if Ganon pulls that victory.

He'd get like 15% against Link like he did the next year, but then Magus never gets consideration as a probable Noble Nine beater, and people might be more likely to see a Magus vs. Knuckles match as the coin flip it actually was.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Just think how much our history changes if Ganon pulls that victory.

He'd get like 15% against Link like he did the next year, but then Magus never gets consideration as a probable Noble Nine beater, and people might be more likely to see a Magus vs. Knuckles match as the coin flip it actually was.

Eh, I don't know. People were literally picking Magus to be as strong as Crono in 2003. I think people would realize Link/Ganondorf was an SFF beatdown and Magus's real strength would still be obscured.

but then CJayC wouldn't have set up Link/Ganondorf in 2004 presumably so that could've changed everything!

LeonhartFour posted...

Eh, I don't know. People were literally picking Magus to be as strong as Crono in 2003. I think people would realize Link/Ganondorf was an SFF beatdown and Magus's real strength would still be obscured.

but then CJayC wouldn't have set up Link/Ganondorf in 2004 presumably so that could've changed everything!

If Link/Ganondorf happens in 2003, we may not get ANY of the awful SFF matches set up, thus saving the entire 2004 contest.

All aboard the NIER AUTOMATA hype train.

Oh right, trend charts:

Time | Batman | Xenoblade 2 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 56.39% | 43.61% | 438 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 54.80% | 45.20% | 3117 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 53.95% | 46.05% | 8178 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 52.35% | 47.65% | 3469 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 55.64% | 44.36% | 5367 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 55.30% | 44.70% | 5002 | (16:00-24:00)

Batman was not the night in this match.

Time | Infinite | Terraria | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 62.10% | 37.90% | 438 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 64.10% | 35.90% | 3117 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 68.14% | 31.86% | 8179 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 67.96% | 32.04% | 3467 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 68.86% | 31.14% | 5363 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 67.67% | 32.33% | 5002 | (16:00-24:00)

Infinite jumps up quite a bit after a bad start.

Time | Diablo III | VLR | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 57.08% | 42.92% | 438 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 65.58% | 34.42% | 3117 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 68.13% | 31.87% | 8175 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 66.55% | 33.45% | 3471 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 72.32% | 27.68% | 5361 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 70.72% | 29.28% | 5004 | (16:00-24:00)

VLR does best at night, Diablo III does best during the day.

Time | TLOU | Crusader | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 80.14% | 19.86% | 438 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 79.79% | 20.21% | 3117 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 82.08% | 17.92% | 8179 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 80.39% | 19.61% | 3467 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 83.37% | 16.63% | 5359 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 82.15% | 17.85% | 5004 | (16:00-24:00)

TLOU shows off a decent day vote in this match.

we need you now

If MK8 finishes at 59%, what would Necrodancer need to get on UC4 for FFXIV > MK8

tennisboy213 posted...

If MK8 finishes at 59%, what would Necrodancer need to get on UC4 for FFXIV > MK8

based on what Necrodancer currently has, 35.91%

FFXIV is an MMO. Well respected sure. But its an MMO

an MMO isn't beating anything on this site thats even of midcard Nintendo status.

Grand Order doing ok all things considered. Shame Journey is winning a match, but it’s a bigger shame how bad Uncharted does here :(

oh wow Uncharted 4 gets its first cut of the match and jumps up to exactly 40%

@Lightning_Strikes

I'm about to play INSIDE. Anything I should know?

LeonhartFour posted...

oh wow Uncharted 4 gets its first cut of the match and jumps up to exactly 40%

Well it's going to be the heavy bracket favorite like it always is. Has anything in the history of these contests been routinely overseeded more than Uncharted?

Yuri_LowelI posted...

FFXIV is an MMO. Well respected sure. But its an MMO

an MMO isn't beating anything on this site thats even of midcard Nintendo status.

WoW beat Animal Crossing back in the day!

UltimaterializerX posted...

Well it's going to be the heavy bracket favorite like it always is. Has anything in the history of these contests been routinely overseeded more than Uncharted?

eh I wouldn't expect it to be a heavy favorite

a favorite since it's such a high seed, sure, but plenty of people will pick MK8 here as well

ShatteredElysium posted...

WoW beat Animal Crossing back in the day!

Animal Crossing on the Gamecube? I mean to even call that fodder is being kind.

Uncharted just cut guys

Its over.

How do we know Phoenix Wright was weaker back in 2010?

Btw, @WhiteLens , it's awesome that you managed to get F/GO in.

Advokaiser posted...

How do we know Phoenix Wright was weaker back in 2010?

What I said before. PW1 was still a niche DS-only game in 2010. Its reputation (and accessibility) has grown significantly since then, and you can track that through Phoenix's gradual growth in strength over the years.

Advokaiser posted...

How do we know Phoenix Wright was weaker back in 2010?

Pheonix wright lost to Gordon Freeman back then. Now he would more than double those fodders.

swordz9 posted...

Grand Order doing ok all things considered. Shame Journey is winning a match, but it’s a bigger shame how bad Uncharted does here :(

Uncharted doing bad here is unusual in spite of how strong Sony is on this site, because its consoles have been more popular than Nintendo's consoles since 2010 (after the Wii fell out of favor on this site). Even the PS4 has been more popular than the Switch, both in terms of ownership and in regular polls where the PS4 has won a lot of polls over the Switch. PS4 tends to beat out the Switch in a lot of polls that ask you which system you have been playing most often over the past week/month.

LusterSoldier posted...

Uncharted doing bad here is unusual in spite of how strong Sony is on this site, because its consoles have been more popular than Nintendo's consoles since 2010 (after the Wii fell out of favor on this site). Even the PS4 has been more popular than the Switch, both in terms of ownership and in regular polls where the PS4 has won a lot of polls over the Switch. PS4 tends to beat out the Switch in a lot of polls that ask you which system you have been playing most often over the past week/month.

Not really. PS2 used to beat GC and Xbox regularly back in the day.

Advokaiser posted...

How do we know Phoenix Wright was weaker back in 2010?

Phoenix the character was stronger in 2018 than in any contest before it.

So it's likely.

double voting also helps out Phoenix Wright tremendously

he doesn't beat Ike in 2018 without it after all

LeonhartFour posted...

double voting also helps out Phoenix Wright tremendously

he doesn't beat Ike in 2018 without it after all

But then it should help the games too!

did you think I was arguing otherwise

ZeldaTPLink posted...

But then it should help the games too!

Well, it's not like we have any Ace Attorney games in the bracket, much less ones in previous contests, to ensure this hypothesis is correct.

Surprised to see people call Journey a walking simulator. I thought it was a pretty fun 3D platformer.

Journey is a phenomenal game.

And of all the people on here who you think would dislike a game like that, I would. Nope! I think it's very good!

Doesn’t only like 1 part even require jumping? I don’t really remember it well, but I also didn’t like it much either

LusterSoldier posted...

Uncharted doing bad here is unusual in spite of how strong Sony is on this site, because its consoles have been more popular than Nintendo's consoles since 2010 (after the Wii fell out of favor on this site). Even the PS4 has been more popular than the Switch, both in terms of ownership and in regular polls where the PS4 has won a lot of polls over the Switch. PS4 tends to beat out the Switch in a lot of polls that ask you which system you have been playing most often over the past week/month.

Its not unusual because Unlike God of War and Bloodborne, noone gives a s*** about UC4.

so far only six lower seeds have won a match and three of them have been 10 seeds

Mac Arrowny posted...

Surprised to see people call Journey a walking simulator. I thought it was a pretty fun 3D platformer.

I think i saw only 1 person call it that

And yeah after DEath Stranding.

We can't be calling games like Journey a walking simulator. Thats a genre of its own now.

LeonhartFour posted...

so far only six lower seeds have won a match and three of them have been 10 seeds

Thats going to change next round. More lower seeds will make upsets.

Based on fo4 does Skyrim get 85 here

pjbasis posted...

Based on fo4 does Skyrim get 85 here

FO4 went up another 1.5% or so from this point on but gaining an extra 1.5% for Skyrim at this high of a percentage will be a lot more difficult, obviously

Very interested to see tomorrow's matches. Will nier be really strong? Will pokemon make it to skyrim? Will celeste have a chance to upset pokemon?

Pokemon to the finals

I'm hoping Pokemon is the weakest its ever been with recent lackluster releases. The fact that not a single new game made it could mean a lot.

Took the higher seed in the first 56 matches. Tied for the final spot on the leaderboard, so it worked out fairly well. My only R1 seeding upsets were both of today's. Usually get on the leaderboard for a few days each contest and might get on today or tomorrow. Too bad I did my bracket in the last 48 hours before the deadline, that might keep me off.

Not too confident in my picks for the first couple matches of round 2, or later matches, so this will probably be my only chance.

GoldSlime35 posted...

Too bad I did my bracket in the last 48 hours before the deadline, that might keep me off.

Is this what determines "tiebreakers"? In terms of leaderboard positioning.

Bah I swore I had MK8 winning two rounds in my bracket and apparently I have Uncharted winning two rounds. How the hell did I manage that? What an obvious and stupid mistake.

Dark_Koopatrol posted...

Is this what determines "tiebreakers"? In terms of leaderboard positioning.

Yes. At the end of the contest, the tiebreaker question is what matters, but until then the leaderboard is in order of submission.

So I just lost my mind and wrote a 5300 word review for Doom Eternal that like, 500 people will read. Tops.

Couldn't care less, either. That game deserves ALL the love!

UltimaterializerX posted...

So I just lost my mind and wrote a 5300 word review for Doom Eternal that like, 500 people will read. Tops.

Couldn't care less, either. That game deserves ALL the love!

I take it Doom Eternal is good, then? I've been meaning to add it to the "list of games I'll play once I get done with games from 2014-2019".

So good you can drop anything else you're playing and get to it right now.

I hope we get Skyrim vs. Mario Kart 8. That could have some nutty trends.