Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1337 *leet edition*

I dunno, maybe. Peak Halo might do something similar. I don't really think of flash in the pan stuff like CoD for the purposes of things like this.

Something something l33t topic.

Wow Batman over Xenoblade 2? I mean I have a lot of wrong picks but this one is as surprising as Ori>Dragon Age

I read that Batman was the guru's favorite so it's not like a surprise to most veterans...maybe I should have put more attention to seeding

Maybe Arkham Knight would have lost, but it seems that the first two Batman games are still strong enough to win the day. I'd imagine most people thought City would do even better than this.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Maybe Arkham Knight would have lost, but it seems that the first two Batman games are still strong enough to win the day. I'd imagine most people thought City would do even better than this.

I think Asylum would have dropped this match pretty handily, TBH.

Wow, today has all the worse-but-more-popular games winning, who would have guessed... :(

Rip my TLOU upset.

Since I was sleeping for BT's mad Xenoblade sales post, we know that within series sales do not correlate to series strength.

Metal Gear Solid 3 is the lowest selling MGS game, by a lot. The gap between 3 and the next lowest, 4, is bigger than the likely gap between Xenoblades 1 and 2. Yet MGS3 is also the strongest MGS game, so there you go. The highest selling? 2 followed by V. Fan reception is a much, much better indicator of within-series strength than sales, though sales can factor in.

Xenoblade 2 is no chump, but 1 will be clearly stronger. Arkham City could well win Division 4, so regardless of how big the gap is, Xenoblade 1 is looking pretty good to win the division.

Just one last point on the first two Arkham games - not only did City look good in 2015, but it was likely undervalued through FFX. It also gave that strong performance in the face of both Arkham Knight being a disappointment and having a huge controversy over its PC version that was still happening when that match happened. Arkham Asylum didn't merely look good in GOTD1, but it was clearly the strongest game of its entire year and had a top 25 finish. We know Arkham is good, and I can't see why it would have crashed, so this looks better for Xenoblade than anything else.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Too bad that coward of a game never showed its face again. And probably never will. Hopefully its in a dumpster bin along with its annoying fans.

shorturl.at/agIL6

Have at us

Nintendo just announced a Brawl themed event for SSBU lol. Brawl nostalgia is real!

Also to my last post I'm just gonna say it:

Chrono Trigger SFF'd Final Fantasy X.

Controversial, brave, etc. But it does mean that Arkham City is even stronger than it appeared, probably on a level with 2010 Arkham Asylum.

Woke up, checked the results. I guess all are fine?

KamikazePotato posted...

GameFAQs is this unique little ecosystem where some games that the rest of the internet as a whole have moved on from never seem to fade away. Chrono Trigger is the chief example.

No it isn't. At least no more than any other game from that era.

SMAUS > MRAIO > LNIK!!11!11!ione11!!

Lightning Strikes posted...

Also to my last post I'm just gonna say it:

Chrono Trigger SFF'd Final Fantasy X.

based on the pre-CT/Melee rally it did not

CT was going to put up a pretty similar number on Melee that it did on FFX before Melee fans ruined everything they touch as usual

unless you're trying to argue that FFX would have clearly beaten Melee in which case you can get me on board with this

FFX v Melee would have been pretty close based on Melee 55/45 over KHII. Probably narrow win for Melee. Plus ca change.

When did the Melee rally start? Because although you do need to account for the differences in trends, peak CT vs. Melee was 8% lower than peak CT vs. FFX and 5% lower than the actual result. Both games are frontloaded, so how much would Melee have dropped? The truth is I don't think we'll ever know.

The whole god-mode CT would have won it all theory is certainly very plausible, but it is built on a lot of assumptions, that is undeniable.

We have the registered users result for SSBM vs CT from SBAllen:

Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%

In 2015 we didn't really know how reliable this was. However, since then we've learned that registered user results are usually close to the actual result and likely to favour Nintendo. So this result probably overrated SSBM. CT is scary strong.

I honestly think Melee is much much weaker than it was in GotD and before.

If you had a Brawl/Melee "rematch" today with Ultimate instead of Brawl, I would say Ultimate gets at least a solid 60/40, if not closer to a doubling.

After Team Crono's 2018 performance, I'm a lot more skeptical of CT's 2015 run. Gives me Snake/Mewtwo 2013 vibes.

squexa posted...

After Team Crono's 2018 performance, I'm a lot more skeptical of CT's 2015 run. Gives me Snake/Mewtwo 2013 vibes.

Team Crono has always been underwhelming. And Crono himself was pretty fine in 2018.

CT is basically honorary Nintendo though, which feeds into my point about the trends - CT was a beast in the power hour and dropped after in all its prior matches. I think 63% could well be accurate - and if that's true and Melee==FFX, CT overperformed on FFX by 2.5%!

Crono and Frog did fine in 2018, it was just Magus who messed up as usual.

DarthShrimp posted...

Wow, today has all the worse-but-more-popular games winning, who would have guessed... :(

The Diablo/ VLR match is the only one where that's true

BioShock Infinite is not more popular than Terraria!

There is literally zero solid evidence that CT and FF have ever SFF'd each other, and this performance by Batman would give me less confidence that it happened with FFX, not more.

I’ve always believed in CT/FF overlap.

And what makes this a bad Batman performance and not a good Xenoblade performance?

Me before today: "Hey I'm doing pretty well, probably should've made this a serious bracket instead of fun"

Today's results: "Ah, no, you chose the right bracket. It just took awhile to reach your stupid picks"

Last time I ever trust Xenoblade to do anything at all in a contest. >_>

snake_5036 posted...

Me before today: "Hey I'm doing pretty well, probably should've made this a serious bracket instead of fun"

Today's results: "Ah, no, you chose the right bracket. It just took awhile to reach your stupid picks"

Last time I ever trust Xenoblade to do anything at all in a contest. >_>

It’ll win a division don’t you worry!

Lightning Strikes posted...

I’ve always believed in CT/FF overlap.

And what makes this a bad Batman performance and not a good Xenoblade performance?

I doubt there was any overlap. FFX and Melee have always been close, and before the rally Melee was going to finish close to FFX and for your theory to be true CT would have to SFF Melee.

Lightning Strikes posted...

It’ll win a division don’t you worry!

Or Xenoblade will lose to GTAV and we'll all be scrambling to figure out how it could have possibly happened.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I’ve always believed in CT/FF overlap.

And what makes this a bad Batman performance and not a good Xenoblade performance?

Literally everything has overlap. It's just a question of whether it's disproportionately in favor of one over the other. If it happens between CT and FF, it's so minor as not to even be noticeable.

It could be a good Xenoblade 2 performance, but that can't be determined until later on. If Batman is underrated, that would make Xenoblade 2 equal to or stronger than 2015 Xenoblade 1. If the original goes on to wreck Division 4, then I'm willing to revisit the sequel just being strong.

Stop hyping up Xenoblade you guys my heart won't be able to handle its inevitable loss

Look at that beastly percent for The Last of Us. Dark Souls is gonna be in for a world of hurt!

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Look at that beastly percent for The Last of Us. Dark Souls is gonna be in for a world of hurt!

Uh, didn't Dark Souls put up a higher percentage against a stronger game just yesterday?

Who even knows the relative strengths of all these fodder games!

I'm on TLOU in my bracket but I can't see Crusader Kings > Hotline Miami being a real result.

I would place TLoU's chances at beating Dark Souls at....0%

Dark Souls as a game just gets stronger every single year.

davidponte posted...

Uh, didn't Dark Souls put up a higher percentage against a stronger game just yesterday?

What evidence do we have that Hotline Miami isn't gutter trash?

I doubt it really matters what the bottom of the barrel fodder games do tbh. Unless you're blowing away something half decent then you can't really write games off.

UltimaterializerX posted...

What evidence do we have that Hotline Miami isn't gutter trash?

Has anyone ever even heard of Crusader Kings?

I never heard of Crusader Kings as a series before, and after streaming it awhile I don't think it'll be a very GameFAQs'y game. I feel confident with Hotline Miami > CK2 before today and after today.

I know what it is but that's only because it was free on Steam not long back so i picked it up. It's basically one of those generic war strategy games the PC seems to have a million of.

davidponte posted...

Has anyone ever even heard of Crusader Kings?

Excuse me I'll have you know I have 600 hours in CK2
But yes I'll take Hotline Miami over it too

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I would place TLoU's chances at beating Dark Souls at....0%

Dark Souls as a game just gets stronger every single year.

And how exactly are you measuring its strength every single year?

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Excuse me I'll have you know I have 600 hours in CK2
But yes I'll take Hotline Miami over it too

Hotline Miami is on my GotD list so I'm biased.

LeonhartFour posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1337-north-division-round-2-link-vs-fox-mccloud

poll 1337 to celebrate

Beautiful. Look at those 81 thousand votes for Link.

Just going back to an inconclusively answered question from 2013: TLoU VS LoZ:LBW, who you got?

Assuming TLoU/LoZ:LBW are equal and TLoU/CK2 stays as they are right now, Bayonetta gets 75.05% on Crusader Kings 2.

HaRRicH posted...

Just going back to an inconclusively answered question from 2013: TLoU VS LoZ:LBW, who you got?

Assuming TLoU/LoZ:LBW are equal and TLoU/CK2 stays as they are right now, Bayonetta gets 75.05% on Crusader Kings 2.

I could see that in this contest.

I just see this as "how much weaker is CK2 than Civ 5?" And I see Civ 5 70-30ing CK2 easily, so Hotline Miami doesn't have too much room to be weaker than CK2.

shane15 posted...

I know what it is but that's only because it was free on Steam not long back so i picked it up. It's basically one of those generic war strategy games the PC seems to have a million of.

Eh, I think this criticism might be more accurate for EU4/Victoria 3/etc, but I wouldn't really say CK2 is a generic war strategy game. It's almost an RPG masquerading as a strategy game.

I feel like CT/FF overlaps obviously exists and obviously is greater than usual. What makes it not affect the results much is that CT has tremendous overlap with everything in that people who played CT have generally played a lot of video games, otherwise they wouldn't have played CT. So it doesn't overlap that much more with FF than Nintendo, and since we're generally judging CT based on matches against FF/Nintendo (since those are the strongest things we have), we can't prove CT/FF SFF from the results.