Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1336

define "validate"

only get doubled?

LeonhartFour posted...

define "validate"

only get doubled?

Closer to 60% methinks. I'll probably go 59% in the oracle

UltimaterializerX posted...

There are multiple states showing 0 votes, not just Alabama in the Yakuza match. I see Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska.

It's not just those states, but I see South Dakota, Delaware, and Connecticut as other states that have recorded 0 votes in recent polls. Also, this problem is affecting the regular PotDs running during the contest, and is not limited to the contest polls.

Who's the weakest 1 seed, GTAV or P5? I doubt Skyrim does worse and ME2 got hosed when put up against RE fanbase imo.

siz16 posted...

Can anyone help me? I clicked an (X) near the voting banner on the home page because I thought it would get rid of an ad and now I can't seem to get the banner back. I'd like to be able to vote!

@siz16 Try opening the home page in a private browsing session, log in then vote.

BOTW > Skyrim > Smash > Witcher > Dark Souls > ME2 > Persona 5 > GTAV

the only one I'm not that sure of is ME2

PrinceOfKoopas posted...

Punch-Out!! isn't a fighting game, but I also reject saying it's a sports game.
It's more accurately a puzzle game.
(Sports game is also a stupid genre anyway.)

charmander6000 posted...

I'm okay, with not classifying Punch-Out as a fighting game, but then it's not a sports game. At best it's a sport themed puzzle game.

Boxing games, along with MMA and wrestling games, are considered to be related to both sports and fighting games, and have been so for many years. You might not like that, but boxing games (including Punch-Out) has more in common with sports games like Madden (from a theme and simulation perspective) and fighting games like Street Fighter (from a gameplay mechanics perspective) as opposed to a game like Tetris or Professor Layton. I mean, are you guys gonna tell me that Inazuma Eleven isn't a sports game? That sounds just absurd to me.

LeonhartFour posted...

BOTW > Skyrim > Smash > Witcher > Dark Souls > ME2 > Persona 5 > GTAV

the only one I'm not that sure of is ME2

I don't think Skyrim v Smash is clear either!

Well, it may not be clear, but I'd pick Skyrim over Ultimate and be confident enough to stick with it.

I could see myself taking ME2 to beat Dark Souls or lose to Persona 5. I don't think I'd ever pick it to lose to GTAV.

Skyrim was very strong in 2015 and got a release on the Switch (and everything else) since then.

PrinceOfKoopas posted...

Punch-Out!! isn't a fighting game, but I also reject saying it's a sports game.
It's more accurately a puzzle game.
(Sports game is also a stupid genre anyway.)

I've heard this before but I don't agree at all. That'd make any boss-centered game a puzzle game.

Do you guys think Terraria can pull off an "Ori vs. Dragon Age" kind of result?

I mean, I've been thinking about Terraria's strength and reception, and many people say "it's Minecraft in 2d, but with bosses". I think I'd take Terraria over Minecraft, but I'm not convinced Minecraft can take over Bioshock here.

I'm asking 'cause it all seems very similar to that Ori match. After all, I predicted 67% for Dragon Age!

If you'd take Terraria over Minecraft it'll probably win here - Minecraft got mid-40s on Halo: Combat Evolved, which should be stronger than Bioshock Infinite (which lost to Fallout: NV in 2015).

LeonhartFour posted...

BOTW > Skyrim > Smash > Witcher > Dark Souls > ME2 > Persona 5 > GTAV

the only one I'm not that sure of is ME2

Swap P5 and GTA and I think that's pretty solid. Dark Souls and ME2 are probably pretty close at this point

Also I think I take Smash over Skyrim pretty comfortably, Skyrim and Witcher would also be close

Terraria winning isn't out of the question if Bioshock Infinite has fallen off, given how little information on Terraria's strength we have, but it'd rely on believing Infinite has dropped off a bunch and Terraria has gotten stronger over the years.

MetalmindStats posted...

* Country Code "XO": 63 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 173 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 0 votes in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 53.24% of overall polls through 7914)

It should be noted that Geolocation results for contest polls do factor in the registered user bonus, so some of the numbers you provided may be higher than the actual raw vote totals from those countries.

Additionally, it's also much harder to estimate the number of votes from a specific country when you are dealing with a poll that has 2 options. The more options you have, the better it is for determining the number of votes.

I looked at yesterday's regular poll (Poll 8053) and found this for country code "XO":

"XO": {1:"6.64",2:"14.69",3:"20.4",4:"14.57",5:"20.63",6:"23.08",}

Thanks to having 6 options, there are fewer possible vote total candidates to deal with as they have to line up perfectly with all 6 percentages. Most of those percentages are associated with a minimum of at least 150 votes. I checked all of the vote total candidates up to 1500 and only 858 actually satisfies all 6 percentages. This is a problem of much greater magnitude than I realized, because that's a lot of votes not being properly credited to the US, let alone having those votes credited to the correct state.

LusterSoldier posted...

It should be noted that Geolocation results for contest polls do factor in the registered user bonus, so some of the numbers you provided may be higher than the actual raw vote totals from those countries.

That's ...huh. That definitely muddies my analysis somewhat. I still do think the cases I mentioned were anomalous enough even with that in mind to be worth noting, though. Also, thanks for providing that extra context about country code XO.

And to Allen, thank you for popping in here, and it's good to hear you'll be fixing the Alabama/Albania glitch.

On another note, I don't think people who aren't on the B8 Discord have had a chance to peruse the latest match pics or hear my full reveal of how to find them for themselves yet. First off, here's what will likely be the final set of match pics I post this contest:

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/61972.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/461277.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/82374.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/105503.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/25658.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/115119.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/125470.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/82546.png

As for how I've been finding these all contest, it started with greatone posting the URLs for day 1's match pictures. I then went to the Guru entry topic and perused the source code of my bracket within there to find strings looking like this:

<i id="game_61972" class="fa fa-question-circle" onclick="show_game_info(61972);"></i> (3) <span id="b53-1" title="Batman: Arkham City" class="picked"><a onclick="pick( 53, 61972)">Batman: Arkham City</a></span><br>
<i id="game_461277" class="fa fa-question-circle" onclick="show_game_info(461277);"></i> (14) <span id="b53-2" title="Xenoblade Chronicles 2" class="not_picked"><a onclick="pick( 53, 461277)">Xenoblade Chronicles 2</a></span><br>

Each one represents a Round 1 match, and I simply needed to plug the five or six-digit numbers relevant for each game into the established URL to find each game's background. The same thing went for each game's logo, only with "logo" over "back" (without the quotes obviously) in the URL.

I'm really interested to see how Terraria does actually. It could completely bomb and get easily doubled by a pretty weak game, or it could do respectably, or it could even challenge for the win. I really have no feel for the extent this kind of "slow burn" indie with a huge playrate would pentrate GameFAQs (my guess is "not very much"). Minecraft got a bit of strength, but it's a global phenomenon (the kind of game that is known even by non-gamers).

I do not think terarria will do well at all

gamer man posted...

I do not think terarria will do well at all

Me neither, but I'm often wrong

61.89% had Rocket League

Diablo III starting off behind Zero Escape...

Of course Zero Escape is winning in the board vote.

People hate Blizzard

Nice to see VLR winning for a minute

this board vote is hilarious

GOAT ESCAPE!

davidponte posted...

this board vote is hilarious

And with good taste. Zero Escape is a gem.

My 1 minute thoughts confirms that TLOU > Dark Souls was a bad pick.

Excuse me VLR what are you doing?

VLR might actually win!

VIRTUES

LAST

REWARD

Zero Escape b****es

Not only that but Diablo 3 is a pile of garbage, made by the worst company in human history.

I for one am loving the Blizzard hate.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

VLR might actually win!

Nah, this is FO4/VVVVVV all over again

LOL Last of us.

Leonhart4 posted...

Nah, this is FO4/VVVVVV all over again

Fallout 4 isn't remotely close to being as weak/trash as Diablo 3.

This entire time I thought Crusader Kings was one of those bad mobile games like Clash Royale. Turns out I was way off.

davidponte posted...

My 1 minute thoughts confirms that TLOU > Dark Souls was a bad pick.

bad pick is being nice. This result was irrelevant. TLOU had no chance against souls 1.

Eeeeeeesh I wish I could take back that Dark Souls < TloU pick.

davidponte posted...

This entire time I thought Crusader Kings was one of those bad mobile games like Clash Royale. Turns out I was way off.

What is it?

Diablo 3 wins, nothing to see here, move along.

The Last of Us has 77% though, not like that's awful

UltimaterializerX posted...

Fallout 4 isn't remotely close to being as weak/trash as Diablo 3.

But VLR is as weak as VVVVVV if not weaker

Diablo III might not get 70% but this won't be close after a few updates

OrangeCrush980 posted...

The Last of Us has 77% though, not like that's awful

It's going way up, too.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Fallout 4 isn't remotely close to being as weak/trash as Diablo 3.

This. Fallout 4 was a fully fledged console game. Not an elite level but decent enough. Its a seqeul to an elite game.

Diablo was a PC only franchise

Its safe to say Nioh is a much stronger Diablo style loot game than Diablo itself.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

The Last of Us has 77% though, not like that's awful

Compared to 83% on Hotline Miami it is

Leonhart4 posted...

Nice to see VLR winning for a minute

Glorious. Best story I've ever seen in a videogame.

swirIdude posted...

Diablo 3 wins, nothing to see here, move along.

Yeah it wins...but people had this thing doubling Last Reward