Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1336

Dark Souls going berserk here. At this rate my 83.33% oracle prediction might be low!

While DBFZ may make a move during the night, it's hard to see it win given how well Rocket League is doing in Canada and the United States.

HaRRicH posted...

ROUND 1 INDIE WINNERS:

Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)
Super Meat Boy - 68.96% (versus Slay the Spire)
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

ROUND 1 INDIE LOSERS:

Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
Disco Elysium - 31.94% (versus Kingdom Hearts 3)
Slay the Spire - 31.04% (versus Super Meat Boy)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

Undertale's indie? I would argue it's mainstream now debateable tho

A game doesn't stop being an indie game because it becomes successful. Undertale is a kickstarter game developed by two people (with one of them doing 95% of it).

I would be so, SO happy if Dark Souls made the final and Gravy won the guru because of it.

By the way on GameFAQs, Hotline Miami absolutely is an unheard of game. I have serious doubts it'll be worth anything.

DBZ is sloooooooowly winning the night vote.

This match really is like an episode of the show.

UltimaterializerX posted...

DBZ is sloooooooowly winning the night vote.

This match really is like an episode of the show.

Luckily that means when it takes the lead it'll start winning updates with like 90%.

UltimaterializerX posted...

DBZ is sloooooooowly winning the night vote.

I doubt it would matter because Rocket League is winning big in the US and Canada. DBZ's strength seems to be in Asia, Oceania, and South America. Europe is closer to being 50/50 here, with Rocket League having big wins in the UK, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden while DBZ is winning most of the remaining countries in Europe.

LusterSoldier posted...

I doubt it would matter because Rocket League is winning big in the US and Canada. DBZ's strength seems to be in Asia, Oceania, and South America. Europe is closer to being 50/50 here, with Rocket League having big wins in the UK, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden while DBZ is winning most of the remaining countries in Europe.

We've seen this flip in the USA in close matches before.

Matches start 4 hours earlier than they used to in the past, and that matters here because if Rocket League is already winning big in the US and Canada right now, that's 4 less hours for DBZ to close the gap more in those 2 countries.

Well, DBZ won the ninth hour by 4 votes.

So stalling basically

That Yakuza 0 result is so great to see. Shame DBZ is losing but at least it looks like we have a match for a change.

We were all going "woah The Witness is weak" when it was getting tripled in the first 10 minutes.

It is now struggling not to be quadrupled.

Yakuza 0 vs The Witness reminds me of the Ratchet vs. Eddie Riggs match a decade ago. I believe the latter loser was ranked at the bottom 5 in the X-Stats.

Woke up, checked the results. I did backed DBZ to win but I always knew that it was a longshot. Well at least it gave a good match.

I think a comeback is unlikely but not impossible. I wouldn’t safe about a Rocket League pick yet.

DBZ won the last hour by 30 votes.

The match has not moved much for the last 6.

I'm happy to get a match that is actually interesting to follow. This match has been even for about 7 of the 10 hours, so it's not out of the question to see it turning around.

And in any case, the good old feel of checking updates every five minutes for most of the day.

Looking at the overnight votes, this could have been a great finish if Rocket League hadn't fought back and turned those cuts into stalls. Would have still won but maybe we would be looking at a gap of around 100 or less before the morning kicked in and Rocket League pulled away

Three identical updates for both games and DBZ wins the hour by 1 vote.

Yeah, imagine if they had the same amount of votes when this stallfest began. What a match it would be.

Looks like Rocket league is going to pull away comfortably now. Piling up it's lead in a quick fashion. Would take something like a rally for DBZ to swing this back now but this is what looked like happening after last night anyway

You may have noticed that certain US states consistently have few or often even no votes registered on poll maps for matches this contest. I think I might have found an explanation for that. Following research into the matter, it appears likely that most/all votes from IPs in said states are being miscategorized as from other entities, though by what means I do not know. Here's an example breakdown focused on two comparable duos of one match from this contest versus one match from last contest, the only other one with an identical voting format:

Fire Emblem: Awakening/Deus Ex: Human Revolution 2020 vs. Ike/Joel 2018; Rocket League/Dragon Ball FighterZ 2020 (as of 3:45 AM PDT) vs. Garrus Vakarian/Ramza Beoulve 2018

Connecticut (CT) and South Dakota (SD) both had zero votes in the first of those two 2020 matches, and each appears to have only one vote in the second 2020 match so far. Likewise, Alaska (AK), Arkansas (AR), and Colorado (CO) have zero votes to date in the second 2020 match, and seemingly only one vote each in the first 2020 match. Alabama (AL), Delaware (DE), and Maine (ME) have one apparent vote apiece in both 2020 matches, while the same is true for Arizona (AZ), Idaho (ID), Missouri (MO), Montana (MT), New Mexico (NM), Rhode Island (RI), and Vermont (VT) in one of the two 2020 matches each. In contrast, all of the aforementioned states appeared to have at least double-digit and typically triple digit vote totals implied by their margins in both 2018 matches.

Albania has the same two-letter country code from the International Organization for Standardization (henceforth ISO) as Alabama's postal code. 51.11% of Albanian votes were for Fire Emblem: Awakening, versus 48.89% for Deus Ex: Human Revolution. That requires a minimum of 45 Albanian votes in that match, versus 2 such votes in Ike/Joel 2018. In fact, according to Luster Soldier's data, Albania had only recorded any amount of votes above 0 in 70% of polls with geolocation through poll 7914, of which Ike/Joel 2018 was one. An even more extreme contrast can be derived from the other example duo: Rocket League/FighterZ had at least 68 Albanian votes as of 3:45 AM PDT, versus 0 Albanian votes in Garrus/Ramza 2018.

There's no other cases where both a given country shares its code with a US state and said country's apparent vote total was anomalous in one or both 2020 matches. However, there's some other cases where a given country's apparent vote total in both 2020 matches was markedly anomalous relative to both 2018 matches. They are as follows:

• Afghanistan (AF): 35 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 9 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 0 votes in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 59.77% of overall polls through 7914)
• Benin (BJ): 49 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 39 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 0 votes in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 7.79% of overall polls through 7914)
• Central African Republic (CF): 13 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 4 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 0 votes in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 0.39% of overall polls through 7914)
• Egypt (EG): 31 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 51 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 5 votes minimum in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 99.87% of overall polls through 7914)
• Paraguay (PY): 93 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 21 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 4 votes minimum in Ike/Joel and 1 vote minimum in Garrus/Ramza (>0 votes in 98.05% of overall polls through 7914)
• Country Code "XO": 63 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex; 173 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ; 0 votes in both 2018 matches (>0 votes in 53.24% of overall polls through 7914)

Additionally, CALABARZON, a Philippines subdivision with a code of PH-40, had 23 votes minimum in Awakening/Deus Ex and 13 votes minimum in Rocket League/FighterZ, but 0 votes in both 2018 matches (and most polls in general). There's also a subdivision code UK, representing an unknown subdivision of the United Kingdom (country code GB), with no votes in either 2018 match, yet a significant amount in both 2020 matches. Finally, there's some debatable cases such as Cameroon and Rwanda, which had anomalous votes in 2020 relative to 2018, but not markedly so.

A big thank you goes to Luster Soldier for providing me with your full list of countries with country codes by amount of GameFAQs polls with at least one vote from said country, plus links to the source code for poll maps. Both proved instrumental in researching and constructing this post; I can only hope that this information, however limited it may be, helps you finish what I've started.

Interesting, maybe send SBAllen a ticket?

Oh well there goes my upset pick for DBZ. I don't think we had ever had another DBZ game in the contests right?

Safer_777 posted...

Oh well there goes my upset pick for DBZ. I don't think we had ever had another DBZ game in the contests right?

Nope, this is the first one.

Are we gonna be on board the Yakuza 0 > MGSV hype train?

I would bet on Dead Cells obliterating The Witness.

This is no embarrassing low-point for DBFZ. With a single game they took over the 3vs3 fighting game genre from Marvel VS Capcom and I would comfortably predict it to beat any other fighting game here not named Smash. In fact, if we get away from Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat 2, I don't know how many other non-Smash fighting games would beat DBFZ here.

Rocket League is also a humongous game that carries some respect on this site. Dark Souls could still make the winner here look small by the end, but my thought's that both games looking alright by the end is more likely than both games looking bad by the end.

Dead Cells needs at least 60.2% on The Witness for MGS to beat Yakuza. I think that's reasonable.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Dead Cells needs at least 60.2% on The Witness for MGS to beat Yakuza. I think that's reasonable.

I think it's more likely Dead Cells beats Yakuza than Yakuza beats MGSV

Leonhart4 posted...

I think it's more likely Dead Cells beats Yakuza than Yakuza beats MGSV

I mean DC covering the 60% is reasonable.

HaRRicH posted...

This is no embarrassing low-point for DBFZ. With a single game they took over the 3vs3 fighting game genre from Marvel VS Capcom and I would comfortably predict it to beat any other fighting game here not named Smash. In fact, if we get away from Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat 2, I don't know how many other non-Smash fighting games would beat DBFZ here.

Rocket League is also a humongous game that carries some respect on this site. Dark Souls could still make the winner here look small by the end, but my thought's that both games looking alright by the end is more likely than both games looking bad by the end.

I mean the entire DBZ fanbase is losing to a car with a soccer ball

linid0t posted...

I mean the entire DBZ fanbase is losing to a car with a soccer ball

To be fair I think the car with a soccer ball makes the whole thing sound way more awesome than it would normally, even for GameFAQs players.

Oh wow DBZ is over 9000 (votes)

Advokaiser posted...

Never knew such a thing existed.

??? You didn't know that Dragon Ball existed?

CaptainOfCrush posted...

A valiant effort by Goku and the boys. DBZ's competitive scene was over in a flash, and a fighter really isn't the type of game to gain traction on GameFAQs. I actually think well of Rocket League (it's got a nightmare opponent next round, but I think it would have looked respectable against something like MGS5), so DBZ's high percentage here is a testament to the franchise. Between this and Spidey - these outsiders aren't lookin too bad.

I'd say the competitive scene is still going strong. It's been the main event at Evo these past two years (perhaps partially because no one likes SFV). It's essentially MAHVEL BABY without the Marvel.

LusterSoldier posted...

This match is proving that the genre of the game matters more than the franchise name. Fighting games are weak here, with the exception of Smash and the 2 all-time classic games Street Fighter II and Mortal Kombat II.

^^^

Leonhart4 posted...

Oh wow DBZ is over 9000 (votes)

There's no way that can be right.

The Owner of FF9 posted...

??? You didn't know that Dragon Ball existed?

I meant the actual opening. I thought it was the same international opening for every country.

Advokaiser posted...

There's no way that can be right.

I think it's right. I was trained in the art of kaioken.

Advokaiser posted...

I meant the actual opening. I thought it was the same international opening for every country.

Ah OK. Yeah, I think that opening was when they first aired Dragon Ball on Fox on Saturday mornings, before DBZ started airing on UPN/WB and even longer before it hit Toonami. They only aired 13 episodes before they canned it.

HaRRicH posted...

In fact, if we get away from Street Fighter 2 and Mortal Kombat 2, I don't know how many other non-Smash fighting games would beat DBFZ here.

I stopped to think about this one for some minutes. The ones I can come up with are:

Marvel vs. Capcom 2
Street Fighter IV
...

Darn it, I thought I had more!

It's looking like DMCV is going to be my only correct upset pick of the first round.

I'd love to see Yakuza stick around for another round. That game really is something special. Plus it single handedly got the entire world to notice a franchise that hardly anyone cared about. But the reality is it got a lucky draw and won't beat anything half decent on this site.

let's wait and see what Dark Souls does to Rocket League next round before we celebrate DBZ as the third strongest non-Smash fighter!

Darn, was gonna make the top 50 if DBF had won. Oh well, still doing well with 45 points right now.

SBAllen posted...

Darn, was gonna make the top 50 if DBF had won. Oh well, still doing well with 45 points right now.

Always nice when you do the occasional popin.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7963-division-7-round-1-dark-souls-vs-hotline-miami

Any chance you can change the individual result pages so they think to our board instead of PotD? At least until the contest ends, and it saves me from making a feedback ticket ;p

And I would love your insight into post 322 from metalmindstats.

Should be doable, lemme look into that rq.

Edit: I can look into fixing Alabama as well. For poll results, not the state itself, that's a lost cause.

Ah the big man himself. And seems he follows the advice on this board too on contests. Well after so many of them it makes sense.

Thanks Allen!

I only have three upsets in round one, but for the two that have happened I’ve gotten them wrong. Knew I should have changed Civ...

The fate of my bracket may well rest on Uncharted 4.

SBAllen posted...

Should be doable, lemme look into that rq.

Edit: I can look into fixing Alabama as well. For poll results, not the state itself, that's a lost cause.

There are multiple states showing 0 votes, not just Alabama in the Yakuza match. I see Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska.

SBAllen posted...

Edit: I can look into fixing Alabama as well. For poll results, not the state itself, that's a lost cause.

>.>