Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1335

DoomTheGyarados posted...

KH is not on Zelda's level.

and I would not take FFXV over Portal 2 lol

i didnt say it was. Im saying its on a level above those other franchises

but honestly i have kh3 over portsl 2

i am not omconfident it evats red dead 2. That match is a toss up

if this was red dead1 id pick red dead 1. Rrd2 isnt as welll liked

and we dont know how strong portal is now.

i honestly hope it beats Kh3. Because kh3 is absolute garbage. But well see

MoogleKupo141 posted...

I dunno if steam is the place someone would be likely to get Ys, but just for the sake of having some comparison: Ys has 1500 reviews, Slay the Spire has 57000.

Is that where Slay's fans are?

I went into today thinking Ys > Slay the Spire. That's an interesting stat on Steam, though we know these numbers are so often not accurate enough for our needs...but hey, if that happened to be true I'm all for it!

Until then though, I think we have a close battle next round with Sonic VS the meat.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I don’t think that’s fair to Baba is You, that game had a big moment. It’s weak but not the weakest by any stretch.

we wont know whos weakest until round 2 plays out.

but for me i nominate fortnite.

when you consider the amount of antivotes and horizon isnt anywhere near the level of a game like bloodborne or persona 5.

Civ 5 cut

uh Sonic almost lost an update to Ys there

Yuri_LowelI posted...

this isnt 2015. People arent up Portals Rear anymore.

i oicked Kh3 because FF7 is coming out and that game will increase the Nomura nuthuggers on this site.

Gamefaqs hates KH3. They also hate FF7 Remake. Plus KH3 doesn't even have final fantasy characters in it. So this was a bad line of reasoning

Nice for Civ

Disaster for Sonic

Feeling pretty good about Meat Boy to round 3.

pjbasis posted...

How many wins does Assassin's Creed have before this? I can only think of Ezio winning R1 in 2013.

Ezio beat Simon Belmont (in 2010) and Tails and Bomberman (in 2013). Assassin's Creed II beat ICO in GOTD.

Probably more noteworthy is that Ezio went up against Zelda twice in 2010 and 2018 - first time he got 38%, 2nd time 25%.

Also i so far i still think BOTW SMO and witcher 3 have had the most dominant performances so far.

i cannot wait for that Smo smash match. I literally cannot wait. TIS gonna be gud.

While I would take Ys VIII over Slay the Spire pre-contest, Sonic Mania really needs to recover.

yeah even if Ys VIII is stronger than Slay the Spire, Sonic's tanking percentage way too fast for that to necessarily be the deciding factor

HaRRicH posted...

Is that where Slay's fans are?

I went into today thinking Ys > Slay the Spire. That's an interesting stat on Steam, though we know these numbers are so often not accurate enough for our needs...but hey, if that happened to be true I'm all for it!

Until then though, I think we have a close battle next round with Sonic VS the meat.

Slay the Spire was early access on Steam for a long time, I assume it’s the most popular platform for the game. It’s available on Switch and the other consoles too though.

My instinct is that Ys/StS would go down like Tales/HK just like two orders of magnitude weaker.

Wildspark posted...

Gamefaqs hates KH3. They also hate FF7 Remake. Plus KH3 doesn't even have final fantasy characters in it. So this was a bad line of reasoning

gamefaqs hates a lot of games. Doesnt mean they wont be strong 1v1. I used the skyward sword example.

that game is trashed by zelda fans. It didnt even get into this contest because it got less nominations than LBW. A handheld zelda gsme

Kotetsu534 posted...

Zelda beat Simon Belmont (in 2010) and Tails and Bomberman (in 2013). Assassin's Creed II beat ICO in GOTD.

Probably more noteworthy is that Ezio went up against Zelda twice in 2010 and 2018 - first time he got 38%, 2nd time 25%.

I remember the latter fondly because I was among those using it to call Zelda being a total monster post-BotW early. If only that had been reflected in my bracket!

Everyone should have known to never take a Sonic game over an SMB.

Trend charts:

Time | New Vegas | Stanley | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 74.69% | 25.31% | 407 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 77.79% | 22.21% | 2998 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 79.97% | 20.03% | 7478 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 77.51% | 22.49% | 3202 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 79.69% | 20.31% | 4726 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 80.57% | 19.43% | 4539 | (16:00-24:00)

New Vegas manages to bounce back from a slow start.

Time | DS3 | Dishonored | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 70.02% | 29.98% | 407 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 71.78% | 28.22% | 2998 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 70.07% | 29.93% | 7478 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 69.39% | 30.61% | 3202 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 69.55% | 30.45% | 4726 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 69.25% | 30.75% | 4534 | (16:00-24:00)

Not much movement at all after the first hour.

Time | BOI | Nioh | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 48.89% | 51.11% | 407 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 43.08% | 56.92% | 2999 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 44.75% | 55.25% | 7477 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 41.35% | 58.65% | 3204 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 42.82% | 57.18% | 4724 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 43.78% | 56.22% | 4536 | (16:00-24:00)

Nioh does its best work at night.

Time | GoW | Talos | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 82.31% | 17.69% | 407 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 82.52% | 17.48% | 2997 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 85.19% | 14.81% | 7479 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 84.17% | 15.83% | 3202 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 84.98% | 15.02% | 4726 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 86.53% | 13.47% | 4536 | (16:00-24:00)

GoW starts slow but builds up strength as the match goes along.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Everyone should have known to never take a Sonic game over an SMB.

I've learned nothing from 2004

Today's trend charts are gonna be fun to see tomorrow.

Fallout: New Vegas vs. The Stanley Parable
Registered Vote Result:
Fallout: New Vegas - 6512 (79.71%)
The Stanley Parable - 1658 (20.29%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fallout: New Vegas - 5193 (78.65%)
The Stanley Parable - 1410 (21.35%)

Dark Souls III vs. Dishonored
Registered Vote Result:
Dark Souls III - 5877 (71.93%)
Dishonored - 2293 (28.07%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dark Souls III - 4287 (64.97%)
Dishonored - 2311 (35.03%)

The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth vs. Nioh
Registered Vote Result:
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 3624 (44.36%)
Nioh - 4546 (55.64%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 2724 (41.27%)
Nioh - 3876 (58.73%)

God of War vs. The Talos Principle
Registered Vote Result:
God of War - 6919 (84.69%)
The Talos Principle - 1251 (15.31%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
God of War - 5642 (85.48%)
The Talos Principle - 958 (14.52%)

Massive split between registered and anonymous users as Dark Souls III does about 7% better with registered users.

Binding of Isaac does about 3% better with registered users and the other 2 matches are much closer.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

If Dark Souls 1 also gets that much unique support from registered voters, that'll be a difference-maker in close matches.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Everyone should have known to never take a Sonic game -

Shortened slightly for accuracy

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm never changing my bracket in lockdown day again.

I've heard this one before!

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Everyone should have known to never take a Sonic game over an SMB.

Oh god damn everything

People that think Heavy Rain is worth any measure of strength are probably the most currently delusional group in this topic. The game would easily lose to most of the indies polluting the bracket. Indies have small dedicated fanbases, noone gives a s*** about a C-Tier studio game that added absolutely nothing to gaming.

Heavy Rain would beat FTL, clearly.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

People that think Heavy Rain is worth any measure of strength are probably the most currently delusional group in this topic. The game would easily lose to most of the indies polluting the bracket. Indies have small dedicated fanbases, noone gives a s*** about a C-Tier studio game that added absolutely nothing to gaming.

it's an overused joke, but...

This guy won a guru contest.

I'm more curious to see a mini tournament of all the first round losers than the predictable final 16

I don't think you need to have strength to beat something like The Talos Principle.

I still feel good about Sonic Mania > Super Meat Boy. I'd take Ys over Slay the Spire without thinking, so for Sonic's percentage to be only 4-5% worse, it still should be the favorite. Really, you could say both Sonic/SMB are doing poorly.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I can't help but think "GrapefruitQueen" is some idiot's idea of a joke to make fun of the guy that actually died. They really need a way to just remove usernames like that from the site entirely.

Considering that user got banned almost immediately after posting on Board 8, yes.

The sad part is that some of the accounts in that pic could all be the same person. This site does have some pretty stupid trolls.

Currently Ys VIII needs to be able to get 57%+ on Slay the Spire for Sonic Mania > Super Meat Boy

I would honestly take Slay the Spire over Ys straight-up. SMB/Mania is going to be ugly.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I would honestly take Slay the Spire over Ys straight-up. SMB/Mania is going to be ugly.

So why is Slay the Spire not going to be Hearthstone bad?

I've ordered the indie games going to Round 2 by the percentage they won with:

Minecraft - 75.71% (versus Dota 2)
Stardew Valley - 71.17% (versus Destiny)
*CURRENTLY* Super Meat Boy - 69.29% (versus Slay the Spire) *CURRENTLY*
Cuphead - 68.28% (versus XCOM 2)
Shovel Knight - 64.4% (versus Dragon's Dogma)
Hollow Knight - 62.81% (versus Tales or Berseria)
Bastion - 52.25% (versus The Walking Dead)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 51.91% (versus Dragon Age: Inquisition)

Three of them so far have earned a doubling and one has even got a tripling under their belt...pretty good numbers, given some of our expectations beforehand. Six of these eight winners were the higher seed in their matches (Bastion and Ori were the exceptions)...but while there are some surprises in here, these victories aren't too earth shattering either.

Real quick, gauging the indies that lost too:

Undertale - 46.71% (versus Octopath Traveler)
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 43.47% (versus Nioh)
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night - 40.9% (versus Borderlands 2)
VVVVVV - 28.28% (versus Fallout 4)
What Remains of Edith Finch - 25.35% (versus Final Fantasy XV)
FTL: Faster Than Light - 22.23% (versus Persona 4 Golden)
Baba is You - 20.73% (versus Grand Theft Auto V)
The Stanley Parable - 20.6% (versus Fallout: New Vegas)
INSIDE - 13.94% (versus DOOM)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 12.75% (versus Super Mario Galaxy 2)

Eight of these ten games that lost so far were the lower seed (Undertale and The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth being the exceptions) and two of them had to face former GotY-winners (Bloodstained and Edith Finch), so many of these losing makes some sense in that regard. We also went in with some pretty low expectations of indie games and didn't know how common blow-outs would become in this contest, so having a few punch us in the jaw early on gave us a lot of INDIE FACTOR coverage that might not necessarily be justified with indie games currently swinging a 8-10 record at the moment. Still, that ain't too bad given their uniqueness and lack of marketing!

Consensus seems to be Celeste and Rocket League are probably advancing to Round 2 while the rest may not...we'll see which list they and any others join It looks like what would have been a lot of people's pick for top indie game here fell way short while a few other indie games have generally done better than expected.

With respect to indie games being more varied than just "Indie: check yes or no," hopefully this helps set some expectations for this culture of games we're looking at.

Ori's indie too, isn't it?

Leonhart4 posted...

So why is Slay the Spire not going to be Hearthstone bad?

Slay the Spire isn't a competitive card game, so...it's not at all comparable?

Hbthebattle posted...

Ori's indie too, isn't it?

I thought it was originally made by Microsoft, but from Ori's website: "Blind Forest | Ori. Ori and the Blind Forest is an unforgettable debut for indie developer Moon Studios. Ori and the Blind Forest tells the tale of a young orphan destined for heroics, through a visually stunning action platformer crafted by Moon Studios for Xbox One and PC."

So...I'll edit it in, good call.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Slay the Spire isn't a competitive card game, so...it's not at all comparable?

I mean, it's still just a card game.

Leonhart4 posted...

So why is Slay the Spire not going to be Hearthstone bad?

It’s a Roguelike rpg that uses cards for battle, totally single player. Not Hearthstoneesque at all.

what I'm getting out of this is that more people should play Ys VIII

Leonhart4 posted...

I mean, it's still just a card game.

And Ys is an RPG series that gets destroyed by Tales.

HaRRicH posted...

Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair - 16.87% (versus Resident Evil 2)

Not really sure if I would call Danganronpa 2 indie. It's niche but still made by a fairly established studio.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

And Ys is an RPG series that gets destroyed by Tales.

Right. Hollow Knight would probably beat Sonic Mania but it would also beat Super Meat Boy!

MoogleKupo141 posted...

rpg that uses cards for battle, totally single player

This almost sounds like Slay the Spire could have the strength of Final Fantasy 8 -- watch out Persona 5, here comes the meat!

Leonhart4 posted...

Right. Hollow Knight would probably beat Sonic Mania but it would also beat Super Meat Boy!

Ahem Hollow Knight is a Metroidvania, so it is obviously equal to Castlevania.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4215-best-of-2010-best-downloadable-console-game

Looks like Super Meat Boy definitely beats Hollow Knight...!

squexa posted...

Not really sure if I would call Danganronpa 2 indie. It's niche but still made by a fairly established studio.

I was going off this article...

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2018-09-11-zero-escape-and-danganronpa-creators-team-up-to-launch-new-indie-studio

...but it sounds like that studio was made after DR2 and that DR2's studio has been around since 1984, so good call. I'll edit it out.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Ahem Hollow Knight is a Metroidvania, so it is obviously equal to Castlevania.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4215-best-of-2010-best-downloadable-console-game

Looks like Super Meat Boy definitely beats Hollow Knight...!

I like the cut of your jib.

Also, Scott Pilgrim VS the World totally robbed Super Meat Boy with its movie fame and I would enjoy a rematch between them!

WhiteLens posted...

Considering that user got banned almost immediately after posting on Board 8, yes.

The sad part is that some of the accounts in that pic could all be the same person. This site does have some pretty stupid trolls.

Wait, GrapeFruitKing is dead?

HaRRicH posted...

I thought it was originally made by Microsoft, but from Ori's website: "Blind Forest | Ori. Ori and the Blind Forest is an unforgettable debut for indie developer Moon Studios. Ori and the Blind Forest tells the tale of a young orphan destined for heroics, through a visually stunning action platformer crafted by Moon Studios for Xbox One and PC."

So...I'll edit it in, good call.

Microsoft published the game, but it was developed by an indie studio

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Microsoft published the game, but it was developed by an indie studio

Ori is an indie theres not room for debate. Small studio who did what they wanted with no restrictions. MS picked it up as publisher.