Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1334

Subnautica is pretty good.

I'm actually surprised that you guys haven't even heard of it.

I've heard about it, but to the average GameFAQers it it's definitely going to illicit a 'literally what' reaction. It's arguably lower profile than Inside and Obra Dinn which at least got some award buzz

Subnautica is pretty and it was fun to goof around a few minutes on it, but I'm not crazy about crafting and it gets pretty scary underwater.

Subnautica sold 5 million copies, who means absolutely nothing.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Speaking of which, Papers, Please is a game I would have really liked to have seen here. I think it could have been an upset special against the right opponent like Ori was.

There's a big difference between a Metroidvania and a "dystopian document simulator" on GameFAQs. Papers, Please probably could have scored an upset in the right match, but it wouldn't have come close to beating DA: I for example.

Well of course when it's up against Skyrim. Might be some SFF there.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HjO739bGNE (click to expand) 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx-VuKkySF4 

Sorry to those who like this game but this looks incredibly stupid to me.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx-VuKkySF4 

So are these people stupid or are they play-acting because they know they're on camera?

UltimaterializerX posted...

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx-VuKkySF4 

So are these people stupid or are they play-acting because they know they're on camera?

With these things it's usually both

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGn1CQaflEU 

These people are clearly acting.

Any other strong indies left to look out for?

LusterSoldier posted...

Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Splatoon 2
Registered Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 6934 (77.95%)
Splatoon 2 - 1962 (22.05%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 5803 (79.60%)
Splatoon 2 - 1487 (20.40%)

Overwatch vs. Death Stranding
Registered Vote Result:
Overwatch - 5098 (57.31%)
Death Stranding - 3798 (42.69%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Overwatch - 3826 (52.48%)
Death Stranding - 3465 (47.52%)

Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest
Registered Vote Result:
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 4276 (48.05%)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 4623 (51.95%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 3513 (48.18%)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 3778 (51.82%)

Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth
Registered Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 6022 (67.69%)
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 2875 (32.31%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 4677 (64.15%)
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 2614 (35.85%)

Even with Splatoon being very low on the Nintendo hierarchy as a relatively new series, it still does better with registered users. And by over 1.5% for that matter.

Overwatch does almost 5% better with registered users, backing up the results of the 2018 contest where D.Va did over 7% better with registered users.

Dragon Age/Ori has nearly equal results between registered and anonymous users, with Ori doing only slightly better among registered users.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses is another big winner among registered users, by about 3.5% over anonymous users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

I added this to the site menu. Is the "Registered Vote Trends" tab supposed to be blank? Do you have this for the last contest?

lordjers posted...

Any other strong indies left to look out for?

If you went by fanbase size / play rate then even years later Rocket League should win the entire contest.

It might win 1 round.

darn it ME3 stop stalling out and tanking percentage

my Oracle is pretty great right now

lordjers posted...

Any other strong indies left to look out for?

Celeste?

Hbthebattle posted...

Celeste?

Celeste should already be the favorite against Rayman, though god help us if Celeste were to threaten HeartGold.

HGSS can flop due to being a remake.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

HGSS can flop due to being a remake.

Oh, I'm hoping that makes the difference against Automata, but I don't think Celeste is in a good spot to take advantage of that.

creativename posted...

I added this to the site menu. Is the "Registered Vote Trends" tab supposed to be blank? Do you have this for the last contest?

It's not supposed to be blank, though I did some hourly trend charts for the previous contest. You can see this right here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868

Those trend charts show how the percentage of registered user votes changes over the course of the match. I didn't do trend charts for every single match, but for select matches to get some insight into the difference between weekday/weekend trends and even some special match situations like rallies and the DST change. I even made trend charts for the purpose of determining if outside rallies had any effect on the match, which is visible when the percentage of registered user votes has been suppressed (very visible in the last 3 hours of Tifa/MMX, for instance).

I have been wanting to make some trend charts for this contest, but haven't gotten around to do that yet.

Generally and as far as i know, in most polls i have seen and i have seen a lot, Witcher 3 beats Skyrim. It beats it among both the casual audience and the hardcore audience, so unless a rally or something weird happens, Witcher 3 should be able to win against Skyrim, its a 60-40 matchup, ofcourse Skyrim could pull an upset but hence the name i said, an Upset!.
We can also add to that:
Witcher 3 won more awards than Skyrim.
Witcher 3 is rated higher than Skyrim everywhere in every gaming database on the internet.
Witcher 3 got mentioned more times in game of the decade lists.
Witcher 3 had the TV Series to help it as well.
CDPR are more loved than Bethesda who recently became infamous among gamers.

I'm sorry but in a fair contest i see very slim chances for Skyrim to beat Witcher 3.

lordjers posted...

Any other strong indies left to look out for?

Meat Boy is going to win two rounds.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

HGSS can flop due to being a remake.

I feel like Pokémon HG/SS is a piece of 90's that snuck into the tournament. That alone could give it some strength.

I took Rayman Legends > Celeste. Celeste should do well and could have won some matches, but Rayman Origins has cred too and I kept hearing people say Legends is Origins with another great game on it.

Now, I liked Origins better than Legends, but I also played Origins with a friend VS Legend solo, so I dunno how representative my experience really is. Whatever happens, I don't think Rayman's gonna look bad a la Tales of Berseria or Dragon's Dogma. I imagine this'll be more like the DA:I/Ori match.

MoogleKupo141 posted...

Meat Boy is going to win two rounds.

My man.

I expect Rayman to get stomped. Point me to a good Rayman poll result.

I'll wait.

Celeste is going to demolish Rayman. I genuinely have no idea why that match is in any debate whatsoever.

[I should note here that I love Origins and Legends both to pieces]

I suppose Celeste wins this, its more known and got some publicity in the Game Awards show, a lot of people watch that.

Disco Elysium is an indie that has won a bunch of awards and got high praise, but im sure it will lose to Kingdom Hearts 3 a game considered weak and disappointing by a lot. Disco Elysium is a PC exclusive game so far, and not only that its also RPG old style story driven point click gameplay. There is no way in hell this game wins. Although even without playing it im very sure its better than Kingdom Hearts 3. LOL.

ShortReplies posted...

Disco Elysium is an indie that has won a bunch of awards and got high praise, but im sure it will lose to Kingdom Hearts 3 a game considered weak and disappointing by a lot. Disco Elysium is a PC exclusive game so far, and not only that its also RPG old style story driven point click gameplay. There is no way in hell this game wins. Although even without playing it im very sure its better than Kingdom Hearts 3. LOL.

Disco Elysium got screwed by being stuck on PC. if it were on everything it probably could have threatened a very hilarious upset

LusterSoldier posted...

It's not supposed to be blank, though I did some hourly trend charts for the previous contest. You can see this right here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868

Those trend charts show how the percentage of registered user votes changes over the course of the match. I didn't do trend charts for every single match, but for select matches to get some insight into the difference between weekday/weekend trends and even some special match situations like rallies and the DST change. I even made trend charts for the purpose of determining if outside rallies had any effect on the match, which is visible when the percentage of registered user votes has been suppressed (very visible in the last 3 hours of Tifa/MMX, for instance).

I have been wanting to make some trend charts for this contest, but haven't gotten around to do that yet.

Added to the last contest links.

The "Registered Vote Trends" tab for the other one just shows up as blank for me.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub#

Do you mean it's not supposed to be blankk as in there's data there, or that it's empty because you haven't got around to adding anything there? Can anyone tell me if they can see data there?

It's only empty because I haven't gotten around to adding stuff there.

creativename posted...

Added to the last contest links.

You're better off linking directly to this page instead:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

That takes you directly to the actual voting splits.

Leonhart4 posted...

I expect Rayman to get stomped. Point me to a good Rayman poll result.

I'll wait.

Here's Rayman crushing an indie darling right here!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5209-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-squall-vs-rayman-vs

But more seriously, yeah, after reviewing I forgot Rayman looks bad in most polls -- that's valid. Still, here's Celeste's best poil:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7468-best-of-2018-indies

Is barely beating Dead Cells better than Rayman Legends? I mean we'll see, I'm not sure of it though. It's easy to pick on RL's system-based losses...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5375-best-of-2013-playstation-3
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5377-best-of-2013-wii-u
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5378-best-of-2013-xbox-360

...while Celeste excelled in an indie-based win mentioned earlier, but systems-wise Celeste fell hard too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7463-best-of-2018-switch

I'll be rooting for Celeste but it's in the air for me.

I'd be very surprised if Celeste dropped that match. There are different tiers of indies, and while Celeste isn't gonna be in the Hollow/Shovel Knight tier it should be just a little below that. Way way higher than the Insides and Obra Dinns of the world, that 6 seed didn't come from nowhere.

I'd sooner take Celeste in a doubling than see Rayman win that one.

I would agree that broadly speaking across gaming communities Celeste is among the most revered of indie titles...perhaps that top echelon, perhaps not, but it's up there. We'll see how much of its audience is here against a fellow acclaimed platformer.

Nintendogs posted...

I feel like Pokémon HG/SS is a piece of 90's that snuck into the tournament. That alone could give it some strength.

Please recall if you will, the original GSC's performance in the last GotD, and adjust accordingly for the decline of the mainline Pokemon games, and the fact that its a shot for shot remake.

I can't see Celeste being anywhere near as strong as the Metroidvanias, but it should be more than enough to destroy Rayman. I had no idea they were still making Rayman games....

I went with Rayman simply due to brand recognition. But to the game's credit, it's awesome. It's not some run-of-the-mill platformer, it's fan-f***ing-tastic, and deserves to be in this contest.

Of course, Celeste is also awesome, and I love both games dearly. But when it came down to it, more people just know the Rayman name, so that's what I went with.

MechanicalWall posted...

This is true. A lot of people hopped back onto AC when Origins massively shook up the formula.

AC was probably at its worst reputation-wise in the mid-2010s with Unity and Syndicate, not right now with Origins and Odyssey

Nah it was at it's worst in 2014 when whatever AC came out that year was a buggy, unfinished mess. I remember seeing the memes everywhere.

HaRRicH posted...

I would agree that broadly speaking across gaming communities Celeste is among the most revered of indie titles...perhaps that top echelon, perhaps not, but it's up there. We'll see how much of its audience is here against a fellow acclaimed platformer.

Yeah, I think you're giving Rayman way too much credit.

MechanicalWall posted...

Disco Elysium got screwed by being stuck on PC. if it were on everything it probably could have threatened a very hilarious upset

Yeah, I'm not that ballsy to say Disco can win that, but I do look forward to it totally exposing KH3.

I haven't played Disco but I've heard good things. That being said, I would gladly sacrifice points to see KH3 get knocked out like that.

UltimaterializerX posted...

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGn1CQaflEU 

These people are clearly acting.

Welcome to reaction videos. They are always just over the top. I don't know why people love them so much tbh.

Also, AC Odyssey is a great game. As is Origins. And while Witcher is obviously very strong on its own, I think there's probably some SFF situation here too.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, I think you're giving Rayman way too much credit.

I picked Celeste, but Rayman doesn’t need that much. Here it is fighitn mid-to-strong level competition:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7463-best-of-2018-switch
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year

there’s not as wide a gap as you’re suggesting!

Indie games historically perform terribly in Game of the Year polls. Hollow Knight is in that same poll and was quadrupled by Octopath, and I think most people here would give Hollow Knight the advantage in a 1 v 1 setting.

LusterSoldier posted...

It's only empty because I haven't gotten around to adding stuff there.

You're better off linking directly to this page instead:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

That takes you directly to the actual voting splits.

Changed the link.

I agreee! Indies don’t hold up in big GotY polls

I think Rayman would have a similar effect in polls. It gets pulped by MGSV, Mario 3D World, GTAV, and other games it has no chance against. We’ve never seen 1v1 Rayman, or whether it’s getting SFF’ed by the other games on its platform, and from what i see, it has enough votes to make this a match.

Those GotY polls can be misleading, as they make almost everyone look bad except the 2 or so big hitters. Both Rayman and Celeste do hilariously bad on those because even if people like them they're not putting them above something like Smash Ultimate or God of War or Last of Us or whatever.

I picked Celeste first, then switched to Rayman, then Celeste and finally decided on Rayman. For the longest time I thought Celeste was a dating sim or something, I mean... that name lol. But then it turned out to be a platformer. When people go for indies, I think it's sort of the simplicity that's the main attraction, or some trip to days of old, or some rest from those AAA games. Turns out Rayman Legends offers everything of that, all while looking better (some people just like prettier graphics in the end, "retro" fans included). Rayman is also a platformer so perhaps "Same Genre Factor" is on its side (unless Metroidvania is heavily favored). Seems to me that Rayman Legends gets more Youtube hits as well.

But people here seem confident with Rayman. Hollow Knight, Bastion and Ori have all kicked my ass in this contest so perhaps I'm way off!

Celeste is a fairly recent and very well-liked indie. I don't see anybody ever talk about Rayman Legends. Celeste wins easy.