Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1334

SMG2 just passed Amaterasu's percentage on Draven. Wow.

Last update by Mario was 91%.

By the way, random aside, but in my opinion today cements an opinion I've had for a while now:

Hollow Knight should be the favorite against FF15. All the high-level indie games are putting on big results. Stardew Valley and Hollow Knight are going to be similar strength and Stardew is tripling Destiny while FF15 tripled Edith Finch, and as bad as Destiny is it doesn't lose to Edith Finch. FF15's blowout against Edith Finch might actually be the least-impressive blowout in the contest. I see no reason to side with FF15 outside of banking on pure brand recognition.

The secret sauce behind mega man > charizard > zero was that whereas Pokemon usually had at least mild outside support back then (including 4chan when the result was trolly enough, which was the case in Squirtle > cloud; 4chan was also partly responsible for Kirby getting so close to sephiroth), mega man had a very notable support thread on 4chan rallying for him in that match.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Feeling very safe about witcher to the semis atm

I'm regretting not picking it to beat Skyrim. I was back and forth so much, because it's the most important match.

Ultimately, I settled on Skyrim because all of these needs to happen:

-Big Netflix boost
-Skyrim gets punished for Bethesda
-A developer rally by CDPR
-Skyrim has to get weaker naturally
-Undertale had to screw up the numbers

The main point is the last one. Skyrim is behind Mario 64, which lost to Undertale. If the gap is more like 55-45 instead of 60-40, then Witcher has a shot.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Galaxy 2 is going to Majora's Mask all over this bracket and inexplicably become the third-strongest Mario game.

Please let this happen.

When I first filled out this bracket I had SMG2 in the Finals before I saw the ME1>SMG2 poll.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

SMG2 just passed Amaterasu's percentage on Draven. Wow.

And just in this topic I was told Mario couldn't break 90%!

KamikazePotato posted...

By the way, random aside, but in my opinion today cements an opinion I've had for a while now:

Hollow Knight should be the favorite against FF15. All the high-level indie games are putting on big results. Stardew Valley and Hollow Knight are going to be similar strength and Stardew is tripling Destiny while FF15 tripled Edith Finch, and as bad as Destiny is it doesn't lose to Edith Finch. FF15's blowout against Edith Finch might actually be the least-impressive blowout in the contest. I see no reason to side with FF15 outside of banking on pure brand recognition.

Brand recognition will go a long way against lesser known games.

I can't see FF losing here, but it's probably going to look like s*** either way

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Feeling very safe about witcher to the semis atm

I wanna see Skyrim first.

But damn if I'm not scary of TW3.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I'm regretting not picking it to beat Skyrim. I was back and forth so much, because it's the most important match.

Ultimately, I settled on Skyrim because all of these needs to happen:

-Big Netflix boost
-Skyrim gets punished for Bethesda
-A developer rally by CDPR
-Skyrim has to get weaker naturally
-Undertale had to screw up the numbers

The main point is the last one. Skyrim is behind Mario 64, which lost to Undertale. If the gap is more like 55-45 instead of 60-40, then Witcher has a shot.

Keep in mind Skyrim was well established in late 2015, whereas W3 was less than a year old. Hell, I didn't even have a console that could play it at the time. W3 had MUCH more room for growth in these past 5 years.

I'm really wishing I pulled the trigger on Witcher over Skyrim. I just couldn't do it on the off chance Witcher was a bust

I did but the rest of my bracket is s*** so won't matter at all

Obra Dinn might be the weakest game in the bracket LOL. These blowouts are reminiscent of the silly Rivalries bracket.

The problem with picking Witcher 3 over Skyrim is there's a good chance Witcher 3 catches a rally from CDPR if it is in the finals. You probably need to pick it over BotW as well.

Big upset Witcher 3 beating AC:Odyssey.

Btw I said to the semis not in the semis. Skyrim is going to crush witcher. Just the better game tbh

I think Skyrim is boring and lame, for that reason I haven't bothered with Witcher, but I did greatly enjoy the Netflix series

ShortReplies posted...

Big upset Witcher 3 beating AC:Odyssey.

What

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I think people trying to position Galaxy as a threat to the witcher are really grasping at straws here. Compare Obra Dinn to AC Odyssey

Agree completely

Looking over the bracket, I don't think anything with any actual brand power has been on the losing side of an 85-15 other than MK11, and Mario Odyssey is probably the second or third strongest game in bracket.

Witcher 3 is 100% looking past SMG2 and is checking to see what Skyrim is gonna do.

If SMG2 is equal to Solid Snake. Obra Dinn gets 75.9% on Tanner.

I'm starting to worry about my Black Flag > Civilization pick.

Odyssey bombing much harder than I expected.

UltimaterializerX posted...

And just in this topic I was told Mario couldn't break 90%!

I mean, it's still not going to get it!

Dont worry at all, Strategy games? pffft GameFaqs doesnt like these.
Open world YaY
RPG YaY
Combat focused games YaY.

Strategy NOOOOOOOOOOO

88%!

Civilization 5 (2015g) VS Assassins Creed 2 (2015g)

Civilization 5 has a strength of 16.72.
Assassins Creed 2 has a strength of 18.64.

Assassins Creed 2 wins with 55.15% of the vote!
A win of 6,270 with 60,875 total votes cast.

Civ 5 isn't strong but it's probably the type of game that won't fade over time so I think it was always in the running.

junk_funk posted...

I'm starting to worry about my Black Flag > Civilization pick.

Odyssey bombing much harder than I expected.

Same. This match only says so much about the Civ match, but what it does say isn’t good.

LusterSoldier posted...

This is an event that I never thought would ever happen, but we have only recently started getting votes from North Korea in our polls. This was the first ever poll to get votes from North Korea:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7901-

I've noticed that the state by state results seem to be messed up lately. For example, it says no one from Colorado voted in Overwatch vs Death Stranding. Every poll seems to have several states with no votes and several with 100-0 results.

Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Splatoon 2
Registered Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 6934 (77.95%)
Splatoon 2 - 1962 (22.05%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 5803 (79.60%)
Splatoon 2 - 1487 (20.40%)

Overwatch vs. Death Stranding
Registered Vote Result:
Overwatch - 5098 (57.31%)
Death Stranding - 3798 (42.69%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Overwatch - 3826 (52.48%)
Death Stranding - 3465 (47.52%)

Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest
Registered Vote Result:
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 4276 (48.05%)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 4623 (51.95%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 3513 (48.18%)
Ori and the Blind Forest - 3778 (51.82%)

Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth
Registered Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 6022 (67.69%)
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 2875 (32.31%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 4677 (64.15%)
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 2614 (35.85%)

Even with Splatoon being very low on the Nintendo hierarchy as a relatively new series, it still does better with registered users. And by over 1.5% for that matter.

Overwatch does almost 5% better with registered users, backing up the results of the 2018 contest where D.Va did over 7% better with registered users.

Dragon Age/Ori has nearly equal results between registered and anonymous users, with Ori doing only slightly better among registered users.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses is another big winner among registered users, by about 3.5% over anonymous users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

There's a reason Black Flag has a much higher seed than Odyssey. It's better regarded both by the average gamer and by most AC fans. I wouldn't worry too much about the ACIV CIV 5 match

If anything I think some people are overstating just how much AC's stock has fallen and how many antivotes it might attract.
Obviously it's not as well thought of as it was back in the halcyon ACII days, but it's not going to attract the kind of derision Dota or Fortnite or even CoD might (case in point, AC has two entries in the contest while CoD only has one at a 15 seed)

I would chalk this ass whooping up more to Witcher being a beast than anything else

That post made me realized I mixed up the AC games when I made my Oracle prediction. It would have been nice if I didn't screw up so I could go higher on Witcher 3.

Trend charts:

Time | Xenoblade | Splatoon | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 75.11% | 24.89% | 454 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 78.41% | 21.59% | 3252 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 77.31%| 22.69% | 8201 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 80.08% | 19.92% | 3374 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 79.49% | 20.51% | 5363 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 78.00% | 22.00% | 4892 | (16:00-24:00)

Xenoblade manages to go over 80% during the Euro vote.

Time | Overwatch | Stranding | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 55.19% | 44.81% | 453 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 57.62% | 42.38% | 3254 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 55.77% | 44.23% | 8201 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 53.91% | 46.09% | 3374 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 56.28% | 43.72% | 5362 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 55.93% | 44.07% | 4892 | (16:00-24:00)

Death Stranding has a bit of an uptick during the dead of night vote, but the match is pretty stable otherwise.

Time | Inquisition | Ori | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 47.15% | 52.85% | 456 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 46.04% | 53.96% | 3258 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 47.24% | 52.76% | 8201 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 47.63% | 52.37% | 3374 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 50.99% | 49.01% | 5364 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 48.02% | 51.98% | 4892 | (16:00-24:00)

Inquisition outright wins the morning vote, but can't really mount up a comeback charge otherwise.

Time | Houses | South Park | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 68.64% | 31.36% | 456 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 68.27% | 31.73% | 3256 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 66.88% | 33.12% | 8201 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 65.50% | 34.50% | 3374 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 66.58% | 33.42% | 5362 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 66.09% | 33.91% | 4892 | (16:00-24:00)

Not much movement here, especially after the Power Hour.

Too many people worried about AC Odyssey spelling doom for AC Black Flag and not enough people remembering that The Witcher had a highly successful Netflix series since the last time we saw it in action.

swirIdude posted...

Too many people worried about AC Odyssey spelling doom for AC Black Flag and not enough people remembering that The Witcher had a highly successful Netflix series since the last time we saw it in action.

I mean, Black Flag will be appreciably better because it's considered to be the last good game before the series went off the deep end. People had given up on AC by the time Odyssey came out.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Civilization 5 (2015g) VS Assassins Creed 2 (2015g)

Civilization 5 has a strength of 16.72.
Assassins Creed 2 has a strength of 18.64.

Assassins Creed 2 wins with 55.15% of the vote!
A win of 6,270 with 60,875 total votes cast.

Civ 5 isn't strong but it's probably the type of game that won't fade over time so I think it was always in the running.

Civ 6 doesn't have many fans , but I think it's cool game . Anyone knows why it's not popular ?

I thought people sort of ungave up with Origins. That one and Odyssey are good.

MoogleKupo141 posted...

I thought people sort of ungave up with Origins. That one and Odyssey are good.

This is true. A lot of people hopped back onto AC when Origins massively shook up the formula.

AC was probably at its worst reputation-wise in the mid-2010s with Unity and Syndicate, not right now with Origins and Odyssey

MoogleKupo141 posted...

I thought people sort of ungave up with Origins. That one and Odyssey are good.

I'm sure some people did, but I think the damage had already been done by that point for a lot of people.

I suspect the turning point for AC on this site was the release of Unity in 2014. That was really the first true dud in the series. It didn't help that Unity was released around the same time as Rouge. The difference between Unity and Rouge is that Unity was for PS4/Xbox One, while Rouge was for PS3/360. Rouge found itself greatly overshadowed by Unity, but releasing 2 AC games in one year certainly didn't do that series any favors among this site's userbase. Then the 2015 game Syndicate was also a subpar entry in the series.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps4/772633-assassins-creed-unity
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps3/826286-assassins-creed-rogue
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps4/894434-assassins-creed-syndicate

KamikazePotato posted...

Hollow Knight should be the favorite against FF15. All the high-level indie games are putting on big results. Stardew Valley and Hollow Knight are going to be similar strength and Stardew is tripling Destiny while FF15 tripled Edith Finch, and as bad as Destiny is it doesn't lose to Edith Finch. FF15's blowout against Edith Finch might actually be the least-impressive blowout in the contest. I see no reason to side with FF15 outside of banking on pure brand recognition.

I'm on board; you're making a ton of sense. Indies have looked great, and Ori just proved that a 2D indie platformer can beat a big budget RPG - not just look respectable, but actually win with a little breathing room. Is Dragon Age in the same boat as Final Fantasy XV? Probably not, but then again, I imagine Hollow Knight is at least a step above Ori as well.

Assassin's Creed: Odyssey vs The Outer Worlds, who you got?

Big Bob posted...

Assassin's Creed: Odyssey vs The Outer Worlds, who you got?

Outer Worlds

I had Hollow Knight winning 2 rounds originally. Kicking myself for changing it.

And yeah, I took Civilization as an upset and am trying to use this result to drum up some confidence, but I can't. I don't even remember this "AC Odyssey" existing.

At the very least it doesn't make AC look good even if the badness won't necessarily carry over to Black Flag. (I have Civ 5 as well)

Added Leon's trend charts to my site menu.

Was Ori the match we lost the last perfect on?

If Witcher 3 is doing this, I expect Skyrim to absolutely beast against...[checks bracket] What in the hell is a Subnautica? Is this a game people are actually familiar with? Is it an indie darling, or is that going to be an absolute turbofodder thrashing?

CaptainOfCrush posted...

ME3 sure did erase those 30 seconds of worry.

And mama mia, the Italian Stallion is pushing for star of the round AGAIN.

LOL. Giga Bowser after killing Donkey Kong (or Mega Man?), "If he dies, he dies." "I must break you."

Luigi after Mario cuts Bowser, "He's not a machine! He's a turtle!"

Mario to the koopa people after beating their hero, "If I can change, and you can change, everybody can change." "Yo Peach, I did it!"

Bowser, "There ain't gonna be no remaster."

actually looking ahead at the next division Dragon Age's flop suddenly has me worried about KH3

Big Bob posted...

Assassin's Creed: Odyssey vs The Outer Worlds, who you got?

I'm not so high on Witcher to think that it seriously threatens BotW

Witcher's main obstacle is Skyrim, which in round 1 is going against Subnautica, ie literally what. I would take ACO to at least 60-40 that s***, so Skyrim is going to have to basically break 90 to seriously convince me it's taking Witcher down. If you believe that W3 v ACO has SFF involved then I still think Skyrim has to at least match or be slightly below Witcher here.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Speaking of which, Papers, Please is a game I would have really liked to have seen here. I think it could have been an upset special against the right opponent like Ori was.

Papers, Please is fascinating and I appreciate what it brings to the medium, but to vote for it over any other game would be like confessing they don't like a game as much as their job.

creativename posted...

If Witcher 3 is doing this, I expect Skyrim to absolutely beast against...[checks bracket] What in the hell is a Subnautica? Is this a game people are actually familiar with? Is it an indie darling, or is that going to be an absolute turbofodder thrashing?

Google says it's a sandbox diving game.