Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1334

Play Ori and the Blind Forest

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

Is it good?

I have! You should too!

Ori is good, I'm about 1/4 through it

I will when it goes on sale. So probably around summer.

I thought "Directed by HIdeo Kojima" was worth more than this!

pjbasis posted...

I thought "Directed by HIdeo Kojima" was worth more than this!

I heard some people calling Death Stranding an Uber Eats simulator.

Is that right?

Ori's great, Stick of Truth is good, and I thought Overwatch would win by more.

Advokaiser posted...

I heard some people calling Death Stranding an Uber Eats simulator.

Is that right?

Yes

LordOfDabu posted...

So I couldn't help but notice in the contest standings page that

2*user votes + anonymous votes

is not the same as adjusted votes. Is this because of users who registered after the deadline still being counted as "users" but only having their vote count as 1 vote?

@LusterSoldier is this your explanation also?

@LordOfDabu

I got a response from Allen himself on this issue in a PM. Here's what he had to say:

SBAllen posted...

The information that we are showing is correct, though, whereas it wasn't with the last contest. Whether their vote counts as 1 or as 2, they are still a registered user. Listing it the other day is actually less accurate. You can still easily do the math if you want to know how many registered users got counted as a double vote if you wish to do so.

So he acknowledged that the stats for the last contest weren't intended to be displayed the way they were. In any case, I have been calculating the registered/anonymous user stats based on how they were reported for the last contest. Since I'm mostly interested to see which matches will have a different winner as a direct result of the double votes compared to the raw vote.

Death Stranding was a game ahead of its time.

By like 3 or 4 months, really. Being a delivery person is quarantined America is pretty much what Death Stranding IS.

MechanicalWall posted...

Death Stranding was a game ahead of its time.

By like 3 or 4 months, really. Being a delivery person is quarantined America is pretty much what Death Stranding IS.

By all accounts from everyone I trust, the game is dog s***. I haven’t played it yet but I’m not looking forward to it.

Finally got to check the results.

Yay Ori!

Nice to see one of my upset picks come through for once. This was more me thinking Dragon Age was weak. No way Inquisition was as strong as Origins and that game wasn't that strong in the first place.

I do think Xenoblade/Splatoon 2 is a SFF match, but it does make me feel good about it reaching the division finals.

Didn't Ori get a sequel just recently?

Ori BOOST

UltimaterializerX posted...

By all accounts from everyone I trust, the game is dog s***. I haven’t played it yet but I’m not looking forward to it.

It's very very very much an acquired taste. If you're the kind of person that likes to bum around open world games or finds fun in the simple act of getting from point A to point B you might like it

Personally I loved the game but I'm well aware it's a really hard sell and I don't fault anyone for not liking it.

I played Death Stranding for about an hour at my friend's house, and the game is so janky and jarring and lame, I cant believe it came from the same person that gave us MGS5

It's literally Walking Simulator: MGS5 Edition.

Damn. Took Dragon Age and never thought twice lol. Ouch.

So i'm guessing FE is screwed here. There goes bracket.

Eh, I think FE as whole is just incapable of scoring very high blowouts against its opponents. Go and look at Awakening and Ike's performances. It feels as if 25-30% of GameFAQs just refuses to vote for that franchise even if it is against fodder. It'll be fine against Ori next round and still has a good chance against Xenoblade, who is facing a game that probably has zero strength on this site (I'm pretty certain the Inklings would do terrible in a character battle).

Woke up, checked the results. From the matches I got wrong I didn't even expected Ori to win. I thought Indie game that few care about against a massive franchise that people like. So damn.

I don't really know jack about Dragon Age but i thought it was a sure thing as well just from past evidence.

paulg235 posted...

It feels as if 25-30% of GameFAQs just refuses to vote for that franchise even if it is against fodder.

Remind me again, what was anything Fire Emblem-related supposed to totally blow out in the past? Here's everything you could possibly be referring to:

• Marth against The Prince of All Cosmos, 2007: Marth had to share the poll with DK and still scored ~65% directly.
• Marth against Nightmare, 2013: Nightmare was actually decent non-fodder once upon a time, and arguably got Last Place Factored here to allow Marth's ~65%.
• Ike against Guybrush, 2007: This 12-year-old fourway match is the best argument in favor of your point. Ike only scoring ~72% on Guybrush, as the only Nintendo character against 3 PC mains, is admittedly pretty bad. However, Guybrush's fanbase was infamously dedicated back in the day, and Ike's result here about lines up with Vincent's 80% in 2010.
• Ike against Spy, 2008: Ike's ~65% here compares favorably to Master Chief's 60% in 2010.
• Ike against Prinny, 2010: Prinny later avoided a tripling from Cloud in 2013, retrospectively legitimizing Ike's 62.5% here in a similar manner to Spy against Chief.
• Ike against Joel, 2018: Joel is the main player character of The Last of Us, which already proved its strength back in 2015. This match is far from the only case of a Generic McDude from a game people actually care about not being totally worthless.
• Path of Radiance against WWF No Mercy, 2010 / Awakening against Mario Maker, 2015: These both fall into the same boat, where hindsight is 20/20 - and Mario Maker was a major Mario game, while Path of Radiance was only worth 35% on Pokémon DPP at the time.
• Fire Emblem against Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2, 2010: THPS2 is still a very popular and well-liked game in the mainstream, at least by the standards of its time. It's not exactly the furthest reach to assume that it had a modicum of strength even on GameFAQs.

Incidentally, the one time a Fire Emblem entrant was up against true turbofodder, Lucina easily exceeded 80% directly on Caim. All in, I find it much easier to believe that Deus Ex and South Park are both actually decent by fodder standards, which their respective previous results would also imply.

Safer_777 posted...

Woke up, checked the results. From the matches I got wrong I didn't even expected Ori to win. I thought Indie game that few care about against a massive franchise that people like. So damn.

Ori got a sequel with a 90 on Metacritic three weeks ago. Plus like Cuphead it was developed by an indie team but with the full backing of Microsoft including multiple E3 showcases for the series, it has a massive advantage over the various "true" indies.

I took Dragon Age to win and didn't think much about it, but given how well most indies have done, I'm not that surprised it won - it was always going to be at least close.

Okay I see.

Got a look at the geolocation results:

Xenoblade straight killing it in Europe. Well ahead of the site average in almost every country and all the majors, over 90% in Germany and Spain. Given that strong sales in Europe are the whole reason this game made it to North America in the first place that's not too surprising!

As irritating as Kojima's comments about North American critics were, Death Stranding does do better in South America and parts of Europe... But Overwatch is still winning in Japan which is amusing.

Ori vs. Dragon Age is the rare time where Africa, despite its low votals, is clearly distinct in favouring Dragon Age. Otherwise not much to comment on here other than Dragon Age winning in Canada.

Fire Emblem doesn't do as well in Europe but still wins comfortably there.

Really I made this post to go, "cor, Europe loves Xenoblade".

Never played Xenoblade but i like they actually got English actors for the cast. So nice to hear when all you normally get is the same Americans all the time.

Damn, after the first 15 minutes I've missed the entirety of the match until now, was really hoping for the DA comeback.

After what Indie stuff has done though it isn't hard to believe that it's losing.

Yeah, I think it's more likely that South Park and Deus Ex are actually decent fodder more than anything else, but we'll find out!

Got 26 points now.

You don't actually think Human Revolution would be able to avoid a doubling from DKC2 do you?

LinkMarioSamus posted...

You don't actually think Human Revolution would be able to avoid a doubling from DKC2 do you?

Why not exactly? Do you think Awakening has suffered some sort of sharp drop in the last 5 years?

I feel like it might have, but who knows?

davidponte posted...

Damn, after the first 15 minutes I've missed the entirety of the match until now, was really hoping for the DA comeback.

Don't look now....but Ori has been losing ground since 3 hours ago.

Poor Ori.

It wins in USA though so with low total votes this will not c hange.

Dragon Age needs to cut an average of 7.8 votes an update in order to comeback.

Seems extremely unlikely given how it has gone back to losing ground again

Well, it just cut 8 lol

it wont happen

Dragon Age pulling it off seems really unlikely. Should be close though. Things basically haven’t moved in 35 minutes.

Do we even have the votals for a game to plausibly make a 700 vote comeback 14 hours into a match without a rally

Amusing to see Stick of Truth chillin' over 40% among voters in Japan. I realize our Japanese voting bloc isn't exactly sizable, but that's still neat.

I mean it’s certainly possible, but Dragon Age would really need to step it up significantly and consistently for that to happen. America will be coming back soon so things are more or less in Ori’s favour.

Also yes Deus Ex would easily avoid a DKC2 doubling. We saw the original look reasonable twice. HR is probably comparable.

TheCodeisBosco posted...

Amusing to see Stick of Truth chillin' over 40% among voters in Japan. I realize our Japanese voting bloc isn't exactly sizable, but that's still neat.

IIRC they are mostly English speaking people living in Japan.

whoa ori down to 51% huh

Fire Emblem is striving hard for an exact doubling

pjbasis posted...

whoa ori down to 51% huh

More like 52, but yeah. Dragon Age cut a bit, but it’s been a stall-fest generally speaking now Ori has actually risen slightly.

Following the Sekiro talk on the previous topic, I actually recognize Ori but not that game lol.

Between Hollow Knight, Ori, and to a lesser degree Bloodstained looking better than people expected...I'm forming a theory that this is a good contest for Metroidvanias. Watch out for that Dead Cells > MGSV upset!

(MVF wasn't enough to get a Metroid game or Castlevania game into a contest, however, so I have my doubts...!)

HaRRicH posted...

Between Hollow Knight, Ori, and to a lesser degree Bloodstained looking better than people expected...I'm forming a theory that this is a good contest for Metroidvanias. Watch out for that Dead Cells > MGSV upset!

(MVF wasn't enough to get a Metroid game or Castlevania game into a contest, however, so I have my doubts...!)

At this point I would not be surprised if Dead Cells won.