Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1333

May I propose the Retro Indie Factor

Indie games that evoke visuals and gameplay encapsulating the times we grew up with (2D, platforming, bright color palettes) will generally be stronger than the indies that are more contemporary or niche. Hollow Knight, Bastion, Shovel Knight, Cuphead, and Ori have been our most impressive indie games, and they all hearken to those old SNES era platformer characteristics. vvvvvv could be an exception because it's just that weak or perhaps a little too old (it didn't catch the wave).

I don’t think P4G looked like a RDR beater necessarily. Now that is a hype round 2 match.

Dragon Age Inquisition looked good in GOTY, but has fallen lately. It is largely responsible for the current state of Bioware.

Lukewarm take: I would still easily take Undertale over Bastion or Ori.

KamikazePotato posted...

Lukewarm take: I would still easily take Undertale over Bastion or Ori.

I don't think that's a smart bet.

VVVVVV is a Commodore game basically. I think that's too old even for this site.

Trend charts:

Time | GTAV | Baba | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 71.61% | 28.39% | 465 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 77.16% | 22.84% | 3021 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 78.85% | 21.15% | 7982 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 79.18% | 20.82% | 3256 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 79.84% | 20.16% | 5213 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 80.78% | 19.22% | 4687 | (16:00-24:00)

GTA increases its percentage in every timeframe.

Time | Cuphead | XCOM | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 74.19% | 25.81% | 465 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 70.47% | 29.53% | 3021 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 70.21% | 29.79% | 7982 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 66.52% | 33.48% | 3256 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 66.85% | 33.15% | 5209 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 66.40% | 33.60% | 4687 | (16:00-24:00)

Cuphead is pretty consistent during the night timeframe and the day timeframe.

Time | P4G | FTL | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 77.02% | 22.98% | 470 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 77.74% | 22.26% | 3023 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 78.31% | 21.69% | 7982 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 78.95% | 21.05% | 3254 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 76.98% | 23.02% | 5208 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 76.90% | 23.10% | 4689 | (16:00-24:00)

Persona 4 has a strong night vote and dips a little with the day vote.

Time | RDR | Ghost | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 72.01% | 27.99% | 468 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 77.92% | 22.08% | 3021 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 78.46% | 21.54% | 7982 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 77.32% | 22.68% | 3254 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 79.84% | 20.16% | 5209 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 80.15% | 19.85% | 4690 | (16:00-24:00)

After a poor board vote, RDR gradually climbs throughout the match.

What you mean by "Board Vote"? is that any different from normal voting?

It's hard for me to see Octopath losing to Bastion.

GTA5 vs Cuphead trends will be funny. I wonder how long Cuphead leads for.

ShortReplies posted...

What you mean by "Board Vote"? is that any different from normal voting?

Board Vote refers to the first few minutes of a poll - it's usually when Board 8's tastes are best reflected in the poll because we're all voting immediately.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I don't think that's a smart bet.

As feel-good as Bastion and Ori's upsets are, next round probably proves that they were less about the games' strength and more about how bad their opposition was. Bastion especially is going to get opened up pretty badly - TWD did horribly in 2015 and we collectively ignored that.

Undertale isn't as strong as was expected, but just at a glance Octopath is the strongest game in the bracket that is the lower seed in its match, with the exception of maybe Bloodstained or Bravely Default.

Need to try Ori one of these days, I’ve heard good things for years and it’s on Switch now.

I’ve been enjoying the results of this contest so far! Nintendo and Indies dominating, my second-favorite game in the contest beat the Best. Game. Ever., and my favorite game in the contest is the obvious frontrunner.

Yeah, Bastion is going to be pretty weak. Ori/Undertale would be more interesting.

Dragon Age with its first stall.

Keep in mind KP that a much more played and loved switch RPG is looking like it is going to fail to double south park stick of truth here. Also I have seen the lower seeds for this entire bracket, that's not saying much even if it is true.

Here's a hot take: Awakening > Three Houses

"Okay, let's check how the matches are going!"

*checks*

HAHAHA! LOL Dragon Age! Go Xenoblade!

I don't think we ignored Walking Dead - Bastion just didn't seem good enough to take advantage. I still don't think much of it.

Ori's probably better than South Park?

KamikazePotato posted...

As feel-good as Bastion and Ori's upsets are, next round probably proves that they were less about the games' strength and more about how bad their opposition was. Bastion especially is going to get opened up pretty badly - TWD did horribly in 2015 and we collectively ignored that.

I'm not sure about Ori. DA:I wasn't that bad in 2014:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5750-best-of-2014-game-of-the-year

On the other hand, TWD is straight up awful in terms of strength (with reason to decline since 2015) and Bastion isn't much better.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Keep in mind KP that a much more played and loved switch RPG is looking like it is going to fail to double south park stick of truth here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5748-best-of-2014-pc

Once upon a time, South Park wasn't that bad.

I will agree it's not a good look for Three Houses though.

Also I was very torn on WD - Bastion, because I love Bastion and it's super cheap so I assume most people have tried it tbh.

Also torn on Ori - DA. I think I had Ori for a long time then switched to DA.

LeonhartFour posted...

the franchise being stronger helps the individual games be stronger too

not to mention the big reason for Fire Emblem being stronger is directly in Xenoblade's path to begin with

What's in Xenoblade's path?

I expected Three Houses to be in the mid-60s here. I think South Park is halfway decent for a 15 seed, kinda like RE7 as a 16.

creativename posted...

What's in Xenoblade's path?

The other Fire Emblem game in the contest in today's batch of matches.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

May I propose the Retro Indie Factor

Indie games that evoke visuals and gameplay encapsulating the times we grew up with (2D, platforming, bright color palettes) will generally be stronger than the indies that are more contemporary or niche. Hollow Knight, Bastion, Shovel Knight, Cuphead, and Ori have been our most impressive indie games, and they all hearken to those old SNES era platformer characteristics. vvvvvv could be an exception because it's just that weak or perhaps a little too old (it didn't catch the wave).

First Law of GameFAQs Game Strength: A game is as strong as its release date is close to 1998.

Second Law of GameFAQs Game Strength: A modern game is as strong as its visuals make it look close to having been released in 1998.

I guess I'm just looking at Inquisition now and seeing something being completely exposed and I can't take its strength seriously at all. Props to Ori, but there's only so strong it can be. Inquisition did well in GotY, sold a bunch, is from a well-respected WRPG series, has the bracket votes, ect. It has EVERY advantage here and it's flopping.

If you told me pre-contest that the most impressive WRPG performance at this point in the bracket would be Fallout 4...

This performance by Xenoblade is for sure saying "I am winning this division and no one is stopping me."

first cut by Dragon Age

LeonhartFour posted...

The other Fire Emblem game in the contest in today's batch of matches.

To add to this, Fire Emblem Three Houses is on pace to be the best selling Fire Emblem game ever. So people expect it to be stronger than Fire Emblem Awakening which was pretty close to Xenoblade in 2015.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

This performance by Xenoblade is for sure saying "I am winning this division and no one is stopping me."

this performance is saying Nintendo SFF

MGS1 quadrupled Splatoon 1 in 2015 and I'm not sure the strength gap between 1 and 2 is enough to explain this other than by SFF because I don't think Xenoblade has hulked up to MGS1's level

Does Ori get recency boost? Its sequel came out like last month right?

Raka_Putra posted...

Does Ori get recency boost? Its sequel came out like last month right?

Yeah, I'm sure this is peak Ori strength.

KamikazePotato posted...

TWD did horribly in 2015 and we collectively ignored that.

I simply cannot understand this statement. I was fully aware of TWD being barely doubled by Uncharted 2 last contest,
but I just can't see that performance as "horrible". Actually that was the exact reason I picked TWD as the sure winner against Bastion.

Illuminate me with some stats to get some more perspective, because unless Uncharted 2 is actually fodder, I just don't buy it.

I hope that’s not a pattern for Dragon Age.

Yeah, Xenoblade wins this division. I’ve said this before but the moment I watched that last DE trailer (and saw that Nintendo was confident enough to lead a direct with it) I thought “I messed up didn’t I?”.

I can't deny that there's likely SFF at play here, but for the moment I'm just basking in the experience of Xenoblade pushing 80% on a game people actually care about.

Remember yesterday, when 3/4 games put up similar numbers on absolute trash-level fodder games? Who takes Ghost Trick to compete with Splatoon 2?

KamikazePotato posted...

Lukewarm take: I would still easily take Undertale over Bastion or Ori.

With or without anti-vote factor?

Micro-gain for Ori. Just when I need to sleep!

well if we're going to have our first legit comeback this looks like it could be it

KamikazePotato posted...

Remember yesterday, when 3/4 games put up similar numbers on absolute trash-level fodder games? Who takes Ghost Trick to compete with Splatoon 2?

I mean, Splatoon isn't really that big here, but I think it says something that the reveal for Smash Ultimate was centered around the Inklings, being the swerve into Smash and subsequently being the first new entrant confirmed.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tfjcsMvN8M (click to expand) 

Advokaiser posted...

With or without anti-vote factor?

Undertale's anti-votes are just part of its inherent strength. What you saw against Octopath is what you're gonna get in any other scenario.

I know it’s not really worth anything, but Splatoon 2 looked like hot trash in the only poll it really had on the site. It was a poll full of Nintendo titles, but still it literally barely beat the likes of Mario & Rabbids and Golf Story and it’s not like it shares much of anything gameplay wise with any of the other Nintendo titles in that poll

Advokaiser posted...

I simply cannot understand this statement. I was fully aware of TWD being barely doubled by Uncharted 2 last contest,
but I just can't see that performance as "horrible". Actually that was the exact reason I picked TWD as the sure winner against Bastion.

Illuminate me with some stats to get some more perspective, because unless Uncharted 2 is actually fodder, I just don't buy it.

Uncharted 2 isn't fodder but it's not strong.

The Xstats for 2015 are sketchy (when are they not?) but Walking Dead placed 123rd out of 128.

LeonhartFour posted...

The other Fire Emblem game in the contest in today's batch of matches.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Three Houses when you said Fire Emblem.

swordz9 posted...

I know it’s not really worth anything, but Splatoon 2 looked like hot trash in the only poll it really had on the site. It was a poll full of Nintendo titles, but still it literally barely beat the likes of Mario & Rabbids and Golf Story and it’s not like it shares much of anything gameplay wise with any of the other Nintendo titles in that poll

That's a bit misleading. Those Nintendo titles included BotW and SMO. Other than Xenoblade 2, every other game got obliterated:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch

creativename posted...

Oh, I thought you were talking about Three Houses when you said Fire Emblem.

That is what I was talking about, yes.

Good update for Ori there to push the lead back out.

Personal take: if this holds, Dragon Age is the turd of the round barring extreme weirdness in one of the upcoming matches. It has absolutely 0 excuses to drop this one.

KamikazePotato posted...

Uncharted 2 isn't fodder but it's not strong.

The Xstats for 2015 are sketchy (when are they not?) but Walking Dead placed 123rd out of 128.

Finally, a convincing number.

These polls shows us that americans are the majority, and being dumb and clueless like almost all american are, we can see awful results already (like Splatoon 2 losing to Xenoblade, FTL losing to Persona and Read Dead (haha) losing to Ghost Trick)

Pfft.

Wow didn't expect to be wrong about Overwatch.

Didnt think gamefaqs cared about this sort of game.

pjbasis posted...

Wow didn't expect to be wrong about Overwatch.

Didnt think gamefaqs cared about this sort of game.

we don't! we just care about Death Stranding even less!

Xenoblade is going to work it next round

@creativename

The direct link to the poll results page from the match updates on your site no longer works. I'm talking about the link on pages such as this one:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=7943&num=2

GameFAQs has gone through several URL changes for the poll results page over the years, but previous versions of the poll results URL would always redirect to the current URL. Here is my proposal for a URL format that you can use on all match update pages:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/[poll ID]-

Note that the hyphen at the end of the URL is required, because this URL format will not work properly: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7943