Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1333

There comes bracket, then.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Bastion
VVVVVV

Switch these two probably. Walking Dead is very weak and "only" 70-30 against Fallout looks really good now.

I'll play.

Shovel Knight
Cuphead
Hollow Knight
Bastion
Bloodstained
VVVVVV
Undertale
FTL
What Remains of Edith Finch
Baba is You
INSIDE

HaRRicH posted...

On the other hand, no:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3448-division-1-round-1-duck-hunt-galaga-ninja-gaiden-smb-1

Somewhere in-between.

Dude SMB/Duck Hunt is like one of the most nostalgic items ever.

Right on about SMB/DH! But barely beating DH when SFF'd by SMB1 -- arguably the worst pairing DH could face -- isn't impressive.

The ultimate point is Hayabusa has a distinct but minimal Nintendo background. It helped Hayabusa against Master Chief. I just wanted to frame the size of this Nintendo clutch-factor Hayabusa could have.

HaRRicH posted...

Right on about SMB/DH! But barely beating DH when SFF'd by SMB1 -- arguably the worst pairing DH could face -- isn't impressive.

The ultimate point is Hayabusa has a distinct but minimal Nintendo background. It helped Hayabusa against Master Chief. I just wanted to frame the size of this Nintendo clutch-factor Hayabusa could have.

I was referring to SMB/DH as a single unit, so someone voting for Duck Hunt is still voting for SMB/DH, even if its B side. Actually I think been paired with SMB may have helped DH in this poll, as it reminds users it's part of that pack. Help against NG that is, not against SMB. Duck Hunt alone would get blown up by Ninja Gaiden 1vs1.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Here’s my current thinking for the current indie ranking

My take, including Undertale plus some 'technically not indies':

Shovel Knight
Hollow Knight
Cuphead
Bloodstained
Undertale
Bastion
VVVVVV
The Walking Dead
Life is Strange
FTL
Baba is You
What Remains of Edith Finch
INSIDE

I'm still not fully convinced about Cuphead's strength from this showing. Is there any reason a functional PC exclusive tactical strategy game would even be on the same level as an action RPG with a devoted fanbase that GameFAQs users are still playing to this day, or a well-liked JRPG widely considered a highlight of its moderately popular series on JRPGFAQs?

XCOM is the number 2 turn-based strategy/SRPG series behind Fire Emblem. It has a devoted and large community, and decent play on here. We actually saw Enemy Unknown crush FTL and win a (weak) poll in 2012.

Lightning Strikes posted...

XCOM is the number 2 turn-based strategy/SRPG series behind Fire Emblem.

Valkyria Chronicles would beat any XCOM game.

Lightning Strikes posted...

XCOM is the number 2 turn-based strategy/SRPG series behind Fire Emblem.

this is more of an indictment of SRPGs than anything else

Can GTA justify its 1 seed? With what we’ve seen so far, anything less than 80% won’t be good enough.
Will Cuphead get a win good enough to scare GTA?
Will Persona get another big win for the remakes? Will Red Dead look good enough where Persona has no shot in round 2?

Coming into this contest off of the 2018 character battle, I was expecting blowouts to be rare, and therefore a sign of remarkable strength. With another day of three games flirting with 80%, my current working theory is that a blowout this high is a sign of a game worth something matching up against a game worth nothing.
For reference, the games that have had 75-80% put on them so far suffer from either extremely low playrates (Outer Worlds, Edith Finch, Trails, Danganronpa, Inside, today’s three), heavy antivote magnetism (Fortnite, Black Ops), or being a genre GameFAQs doesn’t care about (Tekken, Dota, Mortal Kombat). Therefore, I don’t think these blowouts will be transitive to later rounds in the slightest.

So, for the rest of round 1, I’ll assume blowouts against fodder are the norm, and focus on matches with non-fodder opponents as the ones we can learn the most from. And thankfully, today gives us 2 such matches, with higher seeds that are headed for a debated round 3 showdown. The 3 seed, Xenoblade, has Splatoon 2, while the 2 seed, Three Houses, has Stick of Truth. Neither should get a blowout, but which will look better?

Match pics?

I also meant to mention that XCOM 2 got a Switch port announced just a few days ago!

Lol it happened again.

Hot damn Ori's board vote!

not looking good for Death Stranding

Ori's here and he's HOPPING MAD

LeonhartFour posted...

not looking good for Death Stranding

Give it an hour and it might do something.

Ori!!!

lol stranding

Ori looking good.

Xenoblade tripling something is a beautiful thing to behold.

Dead Stranding by the looks. Shame, good thing I didn't risk it in the spread betting!

should’ve gone with that ORIFEAR

glad to see Three Houses with the tripling early on

I had no idea what to think of South Park though

This is a good start for Ori if you have it winning, but considering the trends of Indie Games vs. Western Games the lead probably needs to be bigger than this to be at all safe.

Shame South Park is being fed to a strong Nintendo entry. Would’ve liked to see how it faired against something like Death Stranding or Ori

Don't even know what Ori is so this is a massive surprise to me

Ori is holding steady and Death Stranding is at least bringing the percentage down

Man, remember when Overwatch vs. Death Stranding was the toss up of this day?

Ori dropping...

Death Stranding closing in, and ORI HOLDING ON!

yeah Inquisition is about to take the lead

I think Dragon Age wins over Ori, and pretty solidly in the end at that

Overwatch/Death Stranding is a weird one and a headache man I never thought about that match at all what the f*** IS it

Gogogo Ori

Ugh didn't think Overwatch would be worth anything here though.

FE just lost the last minute to South Park... goodbye my bracket?

Overwatch looks like it got the bracket votes there. I've seen this song and dance before!

This round seems interesting.

well Ori went on quite a run there right before the freeze

also Three Houses has already dropped to just above a doubling

I don't know how to feel about it!

and maybe Death Stranding isn't totally out of it!

Ori was dropping but then rose quite a bit at the end there. Next update will tell all. I’m thinking Dragon Age but really hoping Ori, and I didn’t pick it!

Death Stranding has a lot of haters, it won't win.

Five minute analysis: Glad I'm on the Xenoblade train. I think I would take Splatoon 2 over a lot of what got blown out yesterday. A franchise that started on the Wii U, but released a new game so it built on that base without the Wii U stink.

I hate seeing Splatoon 2 get clobbered like this. It may not be as forward-thinking as the original, but it's still a top-notch sequel.

Great to see South Park looking respectable though, Stick of Truth rules.

Not sure I'm liking my 3H > XBC pick at the moment!

Oh FE recovered.

Dragon Age...

RIP Death Stranding

Looks like Ori will probably hang on, though

Huh, all the games in the lead pushed out further ahead.

Go Ori - couldn't happen to a game more deserving of scalping a big title!