Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1333

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Why? Less people would have played it or cared about it.

Undertale got massively anti-voted for what happened in 2015.

Otherwise it's a high tier indie like the Cupheads and Shovel Knights.

LusterSoldier posted...

It's rather impressive that Undertale managed to still lose to Octopath even among registered users with the massive bracket support for Undertale. 6849 brackets picked Undertale to win, but only got 4422 votes from registered users. This means that 35.44% of registered users with a bracket entry would have to vote against Undertale to end up with just 4422 votes from registered users. It's not a perfect assumption to make because not all registered users with a bracket would have voted on that specific day of matches, and there are dozens of other registered users are free to vote for either game without having to worry about their bracket as they didn't fill out a bracket.

People are willing to sacrifice their bracket to end Undertale.

Good times

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Undertale got massively anti-voted for what happened in 2015.

Otherwise it's a high tier indie like the Cupheads and Shovel Knights.

Yes it gets antivoted but its also getting a s*** ton of support from the peopel who played and enjoyed it. And a lot of peopel wouldn't have given this game that chance

The antivoting isn't as big as you think. ITs mostly focused to B8.

GTAV rising.

Even still. CUphead/GTAV just became a very very interesting round.

So I have Persona 4 winning this division and today doesn't make me feel worse about that.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Yes it gets antivoted but its also getting a s*** ton of support from the peopel who played and enjoyed it. And a lot of peopel wouldn't have given this game that chance

The antivoting isn't as big as you think. ITs mostly focused to B8.

Today's statistics actually show B8 supported it more than the anons.

Yeah, it's not anti-voting if you weren't going to vote for it in the first place.

My bracket had Undertale but I voted for Octopath, and I played Undertale.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

So I have Persona 4 winning this division and today doesn't make me feel worse about that.

We haven't seen Xenoblade in action

And Right now even though P4G is my favourite game in this division by a mile....Xenoblade is still favourite for me right now.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Today's statistics actually show B8 supported it more than the anons.

Which shows even more less antivotes. Its a vocal minority on B8.

charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, it's not anti-voting if you weren't going to vote for it in the first place.

Except you were. Undertale is not Baba is You. It's a well known game that even appeared on Smash and got a Switch port.

But 20% of this site say they outright won't play it because of 2015.

Rockstar building percentage over time isn't surprising.

But why is P4G gaining just as much? It's like the most Board 8 game there is.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Rockstar building percentage over time isn't surprising.

But why is P4G gaining just as much? It's like the most Board 8 game there is.

P4G lookin good I'm happy. Also this bodes well for Persona 5

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Except you were. Undertale is not Baba is You. It's a well known game that even appeared on Smash and got a Switch port.

But 20% of this site say they outright won't play it because of 2015.

And how many of that 20% (if it's even accurate) would have voted for a game they never heard over Octopath?

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Rockstar building percentage over time isn't surprising.

But why is P4G gaining just as much? It's like the most Board 8 game there is.

This isn't 2008 anymore when P4 was this incredibly niche but cult super hit.

P4G(and Persona 4) is a legit Game on this site. I

Also Royal Came out. So more PErsona fans on this site.

If you think P4G looks impressive...Wait for Persona 5 to Steam Roll its division

Basically it will do what a real #1 Seed should do. Clean up its division with consummate Ease.

I had the Cupset initially and changed my mind. I am really kicking myself

I have got to stop coming on this board for brackets and just go with my gut.

Holy s***!

Both PErsona 4 and RDR matches have the exact same % and Same EXACT votes.

lol

Undertale vs. Octopath Traveler
Registered Vote Result:
Undertale - 4422 (48.13%)
Octopath Traveler - 4766 (51.87%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Undertale - 3243 (43.23%)
Octopath Traveler - 4258 (56.77%)

Shovel Knight vs. Dragon's Dogma
Registered Vote Result:
Shovel Knight - 5992 (65.22%)
Dragon's Dogma - 3196 (34.78%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Shovel Knight - 4680 (62.39%)
Dragon's Dogma - 2819 (37.58%)

Devil May Cry 5 vs. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
Registered Vote Result:
Devil May Cry 5 - 5292 (57.60%)
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 3896 (42.40%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Devil May Cry 5 - 4272 (56.95%)
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 3228 (43.03%)

Super Mario Odyssey vs. Mortal Kombat 11
Registered Vote Result:
Super Mario Odyssey - 7929 (86.30%)
Mortal Kombat 11 - 1259 (13.70%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Super Mario Odyssey - 6387 (85.15%)
Mortal Kombat 11 - 1113 (14.84%)

Undertale does almost 5% better with registered users, but the only reason it wasn't higher than that is because of anti-votes from people who hated it for what it did in 2015. Bracket voting matters a lot more when it's 2 games that a sizable proportion of the bracket entry userbase hasn't played, so the game with better bracket support gets a lot of apathy votes. It's much different in the case of Undertale because a lot of users do hate it from 2015, so it can't pick up apathy votes quite as easily from users who haven't played either game.

Shovel Knight does almost 3% with registered users, but this is a match where Shovel Knight could benefit from apathy votes among registered users that have a bracket entry and haven't played either game in this match.

Yesterday's matches averaged 55.06% of the votes from registered users, which is similar to what we've seen throughout this entire contest so far. No evidence of rallying exists. The vote totals were unusually high with an average of 16688 raw votes per match, far surpassing the 15508 vote average from the RE2 match day. Vote totals from registered users reached an all-time high at 9188 votes per match, while anonymous users also saw an all-time high of 7500 votes on average.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

UltimaterializerX posted...

I had the Cupset initially and changed my mind. I am really kicking myself

I have got to stop coming on this board for brackets and just go with my gut.

GTAV will mostly likely edge it

But i'm glad thats as far as i have it going. Fraud #1 seed.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

GTAV will mostly likely edge it

But i'm glad thats as far as i have it going. Fraud #1 seed.

GTA is a garbage series anyway. Has been since 2!

GTA better be hoping its decisively above Cuphead, because I don't like it's chances in a nailbiter.

I personally am not confident that FTL is a stronger game than Ghost Trick.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

GTA better be hoping its decisively above Cuphead, because I don't like it's chances in a nailbiter.

Any decent strength game in this contest would be able to take down GTAV

_SecretSquirrel posted...

GTA better be hoping its decisively above Cuphead, because I don't like it's chances in a nailbiter.

GTA is clutch
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1351-west-division-round-2-donkey-kong-vs-tommy-vercetti
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2084-flood-division-round-1-kefka-vs-tommy-vercetti

15 years ago...

Posting this here again for anyone who thinks Undertale isn't antivoted

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6456-one-year-later-have-you-ever-played-undertale

And that's the people voting in potd that refused to ever touch it, probably a lot who played it and still antivoted it.

Antivoting is a thing here.

Gall posted...

dyssey > Ultim

Gall posted...

Shovel Knight gets a big win, and Undertale keeps it close enough where it surely wins without antivotes. As someone who took more than a few indie upsets, I’m wishing I’d taken a few more.
Blowout, rinse, repeat. That said, anyone calling Odyssey > Ultimate over this is way premature. The silver lining of the sad, sad DMC > DKC result is that we’ll get a read on Odyssey against non-fodder, non-SFFed competition.

For today:
Can GTA justify its 1 seed? With what we’ve seen so far, anything less than 80% won’t be good enough.
Will Cuphead get a win good enough to scare GTA?
Will Persona get another big win for the remakes? Will Red Dead look good enough where Persona has no shot in round 2?

How is everyone liking these daily check-ins? Should I go into more detail? Less? Should I make predictions for future matches, or look back at old ones? Any feedback is appreciated.

I really like your posts. more detail and look back would be appreciated imo

charmander6000 posted...

Just like Draven/Sans, GameFAQs got more exposure to Undertale from 2015 relative to the outsiders.

This makes the most sense to me of any theory people have given so far, on why Undertale did better with registered users. That they have more exposure to it than the anons.

Evillordexdeath posted...

I personally am not confident that FTL is a stronger game than Ghost Trick.

We'll see next round

But FTL has a much larger PC following. I think Ghost Trick is the strongest though

Every indie winner has tanked percentage all throughout the day, so I expect Cuphead to do the same.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

43584 458835 355766 451575

What's the deal here?

Also, Ghost Trick probably has the lowest playrate of any of these games.

I'm an Undertale anti-voter. I'm in that 20% that refuses to ever give it a chance. It's trivially obvious that it's a not zero group. But, I'm also a big fan of Octopath Traveler and would have voted that way regardless of what happened in 2015. So the fact that I'm an anti-voter is totally meaningless.

PC following has rarely helped anything here

Ok ok you are all convinced Undertale got Antivoted

Boo hoo

Big f***ing deal. Just let this f***ing cancer of a game Die already

creativename posted...

What's the deal here?

Those are the numbers that will be used for the url for the next few match pictures. After MetalmindStats's hint I was able to also figure out the pattern.

Leonhart4 posted...

Also, Ghost Trick probably has the lowest playrate of any of these games.

Playrate is irrelevant. Persona 4 Golden probably has less players than all of these games bar Ghost Trick.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I'm an Undertale anti-voter. I'm in that 20% that refuses to ever give it a chance. It's trivially obvious that it's a not zero group. But, I'm also a big fan of Octopath Traveler and would have voted that way regardless of what happened in 2015. So the fact that I'm an anti-voter is totally meaningless.

It's definitely a group, but why would anons anti vote more than registereds?

I think Undertale is just naturally weak, but stronger with the registereds who would be more exposed to it. You could say it's brackets, but that would be part of the exposure deal.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Playrate is irrelevant. Persona 4 Golden probably has less players than all of these games bar Ghost Trick.

Playrate is relevant when it's as low as Ghost Trick's is, and a lot of P4G voters who didn't play it are just treating it like regular Persona 4 in all likelihood so its actual playrate is the thing that's irrelevant.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Those are the numbers that will be used for the url for the next few match pictures. After MetalmindStats's hint I was able to also figure out the pattern.

What's the pattern? Is this some TRE industrial complex deep state secret LOL.

I believe XCOM 2 was overseeded by a fair amount here; I can't imagine it's worth jack to GameFAQs voters. With that in mind, I still expect GTA to win Cuphead's soul contract, especially if the latter continues to tumble like this.

I'd love to see Cuphead win, though. I have no beef with GTA, but Cuphead is pure gaming magic and in my all-time top ten.

creativename posted...

It's definitely a group, but why would anons anti vote more than registereds?

I think Undertale is just naturally weak, but stronger with the registereds who would be more exposed to it. You could say it's brackets, but that would be part of the exposure deal.

I do think the exposure factor is outweighing the anti-vote factor. But, I suspect bracket voters are the big reason Undertale did so well with registered voters.

creativename posted...

What's the pattern? Is this some TRE industrial complex deep state secret LOL.

I don't want to steal MetalmindStats's thunder so I'm leaving it up to him to decide when he wants to reveal how it works.

I too figured it out with the hint

106042

Clever!

XCOM
Baba
FTL

Ghost Trick

That's the pretty clear order of operations here

Undertale's base strength is pretty low as is, so any sort of anti-voting will definitely hurt it. It won't be as bad as Draven but I believe it's a measurable amount of voters.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

You had GTAV to win the entire Division? lol

Either way looking at it now. CUphead upset is a real possibility.

I still think Red Dead has the toughest opponent.

PErsona 4 is probably the slight favourite to win this fourpack. RDR 2 and GTAV 3rd.

Cuphead is a dark horse. But i doubt it gets past a JRPG favourite like PErsona if it beats up casual theft Auto.

Guru :
Grand Theft Auto V - 74 (52.11%)
Persona 4 Golden - 46 (32.39%)
Red Dead Redemption - 19 (13.38%)
Cuphead - 3 (2.11%)

ctesjbuvf posted...

Posting this here again for anyone who thinks Undertale isn't antivoted

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6456-one-year-later-have-you-ever-played-undertale

And that's the people voting in potd that refused to ever touch it, probably a lot who played it and still antivoted it.

Antivoting is a thing here.

It's a thing, but it's also being exaggerated. First you aren't taking into account the exposure it got leading to people playing it and liking it (new fans) and second anti-voters voting for a game they already like or care enough over a game they never heard or cared about aren't anti-voters.

charmander6000 posted...

It's a thing, but it's also being exaggerated. First you aren't taking into account the exposure it got leading to people playing it and liking it (new fans) and second anti-voters voting for a game they already like or care enough over a game they never heard or cared about aren't anti-voters.

Sure, but people have to vote in all 4 matches regardless, and that hurts Undertale more than it helps it for voters who were here in 2015 if the voter hasn't played either game.

I would absolutely take FTL over Ghost Trick and Baba is You

Feel very good about my P4 miracle run right now

Rockstar still climbing though! They might be able to squeeze out a P4 port!

charmander6000 posted...

It's a thing, but it's also being exaggerated. First you aren't taking into account the exposure it got leading to people playing it and liking it (new fans) and second anti-voters voting for a game they already like or care enough over a game they never heard or cared about aren't anti-voters.

I believe I never stated the second part.

I must also add that I don't actually think +20% of voters did so, but I'd be damn surprised if the antivoting didn't flip the result when it was that close. It's definitely a good part.

The exposure part is true, but OoT and FF are to some part antivoted from being previous winners, so there's also that.