Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1331

Walking Dead was bottom 5 in whatever value BGE2 stats have, although it was behind all sorts of Undertale shenanigans and RBY/Sonic 2, but unless Pokemon SFFed Sonic 2 to death then that's probably fair for Walking Dead.

It could easily be weaker now than it was back then.

That said, if Walking Dead vs. INSIDE is less than 55% for Walking Dead (or god help us an INSIDE win) then I'm ready to discuss Breath of the Wild vs. Doom.

yes I want to live in the world where DOOM is a top contender in this contest. That game rules.

Awakening doing worse against Human Revolution than direct extrapolation from 2015 has it doing against the more highly-regarded original can't bode well. There's certainly a possibility Human Revolution is stronger, but it's probably not by much.

Furthermore, going into a debated match in Round 2, we have the higher seed scoring a blowout win over a Call of Duty game, while the lower seed gets a fairly ho-hum beatdown against a not especially high-profile WRPG. Sound familiar?

Human Revolution is definitely the stronger of the two, also 2015 shenanigans. The original Deus Ex is only really more well regarded because of how unique it was when it came out.

Looks like the beatdowns have calmed down a bit with the Europe vote.

All those 80+% make BoTW look pretty average.
It's all fodder crushing, but BoTW was against fodder too.

Averia posted...

All those 80+% make BoTW look pretty average.
It's all fodder crushing, but BoTW was against fodder too.

Not at all, that’s what makes BotW’s 85% so scary. We saw The Outer Worlds look legit, it almost beat Sekiro and is a very GameFAQs game. Like RE7 it was underseeded. Plus there is a difference between 80 and 85 which is why DOOM is the talk of these matches.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Not at all, that’s what makes BotW’s 85% so scary. We saw The Outer Worlds look legit, it almost beat Sekiro and is a very GameFAQs game. Like RE7 it was underseeded. Plus there is a difference between 80 and 85 which is why DOOM is the talk of these matches.

Maybe I'm wrong but I still have a hard time seeing Outer Worlds being near Sekiro.
I know there was the PotD but it was low votals and 8 ways so I'm not convinced.

RE2 raised to 82%. The prospect of it losing to Doom seems less scary now.

Dunno why i decided to stick with FE to win 2 rounds. Seemed like a good idea at the time.

If The Outer World doesn't have to be too close to Sekiro to beat everything losing today with no troubles.

And if something (ie Outer Worlds being fodder) makes BotW look on par with some of the winning games today, then that should convince you that the something is not the case.

I think the game that actually loses out in these blowouts is DQXI. I cannot see Trails stomping these games even if it can beat them. DQXI probably squeaks to the division finals still though.

i doubt outer worlds does better than ni no kuni did on Sekiro 1 on 1.

Also, I do wonder if Byleth joining Smash actually hurt Fire Emblem a little bit. We know from last character battle how much Smash matters in these contests. It might not be much, but I could see Fire Emblem losing votes to a point where a close match would be flipped.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Human Revolution is definitely the stronger of the two, also 2015 shenanigans. The original Deus Ex is only really more well regarded because of how unique it was when it came out.

Looks like the beatdowns have calmed down a bit with the Europe vote.

I have a hard time seeing Human Revolution break 30% on Final Fantasy IV, but I'm not ruling out the possibility.

RE2 looking at 83%. Looks like DOOM will fall into the 85s too. Europe is driving RE2 up and DOOM down.

Some stats (based on results at 12:05 UTC):

For RE2 to beat DOOM, DR2 needs to get at least 59.51% on INSIDE

For FE:A to beat Bloodborne, Deus Ex needs to get at least 74.27% on CoD

For Bloodborne beat RE2, CoD needs to get at least 54.66% on DR2

For FE:A to beat RE2, Deus Ex needs to get at least 76.67% on DR2

For Bloodborne beat DOOM, CoD needs to get at least 63.28% on INSIDE

For FE:A to beat DOOM, Deus Ex needs to get at least 81.11% on INSIDE

Great news for Bloodborne. RE2 vs. DOOM should be a nailbiter but we'll see where the two end up - I don't think RE2 is done just yet.

You guys are thinking to much, Resident Evil 2 will at least get 60% on Doom.

Yeah I feel like FE:A's goose is cooked, if we can trust the stats.

Like I don't see Deus Ex quadrupling... anything, really.

RE2 has this half in the bag.

I just regret changing to RE2>Bloodborne!

Looking at this division again I think ME2 does win but doesn't get far above 55% or so for the rest of the contest. I do wonder if it could SFF Fallout though.

That DOOM Eternal boost.

DOOM below 86% now, its match with RE2 basically looks like DR2 vs. INSIDE.

Not that helpful! Maybe DR2 squeaks it.

so INSIDE is gonna be last in the X-Stats right?

Obra Dinn would be my current guess, possibly Trails. Fortnite will be down there too. INSIDE could also still be slightly ahead of Edith Finch. I think that’s a reasonable bottom five, maybe Baba is You gets in there but I hope not!

Lightning Strikes posted...

Great news for Bloodborne. RE2 vs. DOOM should be a nailbiter but we'll see where the two end up - I don't think RE2 is done just yet.

PSA: Do not bite your nails during a nailbiter, as the virus can hide underneath your nails.

re: the disparity between DOOM's GOTY appearance and the current results, I think it's safe to say that DOOM stumbled out of the gate with the poorly implemented multiplayer, and it probably took a while for people to catch on to how good it was. Doesn't surprise me in the least that it's gone up in strength, especially with all the attention Eternal is getting while everyone is cooped up in their houses with nothing better to do.

I think I remember people liking DOOM a lot from the start.

So literally every game with the potential to upend ME2 performed better than it this round, right? Fallout 4, Horizon Zero Dawn, RE2, DOOM, and Bloodborne all look like they're gunning for it.

If you hold Mass Effect 2 constant between 2015 and now, RE7 gets ~28% on Metal Gear Solid 3, which doesn't seem so out there. Especially RE7 getting like 44% on Mother 3, that's believable.

I wish RE2's next match was closer to Friday for maximum boostage though.

KamikazePotato posted...

So literally every game with the potential to upend ME2 performed better than it this round, right? Fallout 4, Horizon Zero Dawn, RE2, DOOM, and Bloodborne all look like they're gunning for it.

I mean, they all faced games that are way weaker than RE7, so that'll happen!

I can't see ME2 not weakening since 2015. Andromeda really trashed the series. I was honestly a bit surprised it got the 1 seed over The Last of Us and Super Mario Odyssey.

However, regarding Fallout 4, I wonder if there would be many general RPG fans who would say that Fallout 4, while generally well regarded if disappointing, as being better than Mass Effect 2. That is why I think SFF might happen. However, there will also be just Fallout/BGS fans and potential ME antivoters to consider.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I can't see ME2 not weakening since 2015. Andromeda really trashed the series. I was honestly a bit surprised it got the 1 seed over The Last of Us.

However, regarding Fallout 4, I wonder if there would be many general RPG fans who would say that Fallout 4, while generally well regarded if disappointing, as being better than Mass Effect 2. That is why I think SFF might happen. However, there will also be just Fallout/BGS fans and potential ME antivoters to consider.

Literally any argument you can have for Andromeda hurting Mass Effect you could have for Fallout 76 hurting Fallout, maybe even moreso

LiquidOshawott posted...

Literally any argument you can have for Andromeda hurting Mass Effect you could have for Fallout 76 hurting Fallout, maybe even moreso

I had originally meant to put this in my last post but forgot so apologies:

Fallout 76 has the convenient excuse of being a multiplayer side game, even though it is pure trash. So it won't necessarily hurt main Fallout games directly. As far as we can tell, Fallout is still an active concern for Bethesda, and they are still improving Fallout 76. Andromeda on the other hand straight up killed Mass Effect and while they made some initial improvements they quickly abandoned it, cancelled the DLC, and shut down the studio. That is a whole series issue much worse than what 76 did to Fallout.

Sadly the "EA Games (they killed Mass Effect)" video seems to be gone. :(

I get that logic but I still don't subscribe to it.

How have they not ported the trilogy to modern consoles yet? Seems like a no brainer. Everything gets ported.

EA had a no remasters policy for a long time, but then they made Burnout Paradise Remastered.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

For FE:A to beat Bloodborne, Deus Ex needs to get at least 74.27% on CoD

Pre-contest I would never have imagined a result like this

But at this point, one of the stories of this contest has been anything with a name brand and a pulse absolutely obliterating fodder. We just saw games like Horizon, Doom, Dragon Quest break 80 on their opponents, and few people pegged those games as being able to lay that kind of smackdown.

So it's possible that Deus Ex could triple Blops just based off being relatively high profile and well liked at the time and CoD antivotes.

KamikazePotato posted...

So literally every game with the potential to upend ME2 performed better than it this round, right? Fallout 4, Horizon Zero Dawn, RE2, DOOM, and Bloodborne all look like they're gunning for it.

I still think ME2 will get past FO4 at least, but I think it's in serious trouble versus the others. My ME2 remark from last night made a bit of a stir, so I'll explain myself a little more.

Whoever wins RE2 vs. DOOM is going to be propped up by either RE3Make or DOOM Eternal, both of which are particularly good halo effects to have. This is also the exact opposite situation Mass Effect is in, since Andromeda is still an open wound years later and the series has been dead since. Plus, even considering how fodderific INSIDE and Danganronpa are, these beatdowns are damn impressive; flying well above 80% isn't something that just happens.

Then there's Horizon and Bloodborne, both of which decked their anti-vote magnet opponents even more than expected. I'd take Black Ops over Fortnite in a heartbeat, so I'm more impressed with Bloodborne - which also, unlike anything Mass Effect, has only increased in stature over the years instead of going in the other direction.

I agree that RE7 was underseeded, but I don't think it was by that much. While RE7 might be propped up a little by the remake hype too, it looked abysmal in its GotY polls and I don't see an old-fogey website like this caring about the VR factor. So, I'm really not impressed with ME2's performance.

Finally, Shepard limping to the finish line versus King K. Rool, after winning against Aerith a few years prior, is still fresh in my mind.

It just seems like several perfect storms are brewing in this division, while Mass Effect 2 doesn't even have an umbrella. I'd love to be proven wrong for the sake of my bracket, though. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

I said this before the match, but there's only so badly a game like Resident Evil is going to get beat unless it's up against something like Zelda or Smash. I have ME2 winning the division and I predicted nod-60s.

I'm more concerned about ME2 because of what its future opponents are doing and not so much because of what it did.

Lightning Strikes posted...

I had originally meant to put this in my last post but forgot so apologies:

Fallout 76 has the convenient excuse of being a multiplayer side game, even though it is pure trash. So it won't necessarily hurt main Fallout games directly. As far as we can tell, Fallout is still an active concern for Bethesda, and they are still improving Fallout 76. Andromeda on the other hand straight up killed Mass Effect and while they made some initial improvements they quickly abandoned it, cancelled the DLC, and shut down the studio. That is a whole series issue much worse than what 76 did to Fallout.

Sadly the "EA Games (they killed Mass Effect)" video seems to be gone. :(

open question to the topic: do any of you actually like Mass Effect 2 or any of the Fallouts less because of Andromeda or 76?

I don’t think a bad game later in a series has ever made me sour on a game I already liked. If anything, 76 has made me appreciate how good New Vegas was even more.

I think it's a subconscious effect to some extent? Like your mindset towards the series as a whole changes

You read the words "Mass Effect" and you're like "awesome, there's a series that I like". Then Andromeda comes out, (and 3 disappoints some people too) and suddenly it's something a bit closer to "meh, Mass Effect". The whole thing loses its luster. And remember, people don't put that much thought into their votes. They're likely to go with their instinct rather than go out of their way to separate their feelings for "Mass Effect 2" from their feelings for "Mass Effect".

Maybe I'm wrong. Obviously, rationally, it's a little silly to have a lesser opinion of ME2 because of Andromeda (I do think though that, to some extent, Mass Effect 1 seems a better game in hindsight because it introduces characters that only became great later, so they don't work totally in isolation) but I'd say it does happen to some percentage of voters. And, again, voting in this poll simply isn't a big enough deal to really agonise over a choice or interrogate your feelings.

Fans move on. Let's say you were super active in the Mass Effect community after 2, but after the twin shots of 3 and Andromeda you start to feel more dejected and become apathetic at best towards the series. You leave the series looking for an alternate series and fandom to feel the void, and you find, say... another sci-fi WRPG series like Fallout. Or Horizon.

MoogleKupo141 posted...

open question to the topic: do any of you actually like Mass Effect 2 or any of the Fallouts less because of Andromeda or 76?

No, but as far as general voters go, there's two things to consider:

1. Many people will be voting for games they've never played, so reputation matters.
2. People's opinions aren't as ironclad as they'd like to admit. In many instances someone is willing to roll with public opinion about something they don't care much about, or is willing to overlook flaws if a positive reputation or HYPE exists, but that all goes out the window when it becomes fashionable to admit that the game and/or series has problems. The biggest example is probably 2D Sonic, which is almost certainly weaker due to the numerous bad 3D games making Sonic as a whole lose its reputation as a Big Deal.