Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1328
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@creativename Remember to get the updater configured for the start of the contest. Here's the important Poll ID milestones to know: 7915 - First Poll ID of contest, 4 matches per day 8011 - Start of 2 matches per day 8026 - Last Poll ID before the 6 day break begins 8027 - Contest resumes again with 2 matches per day 8039 - Start of 1 match per day 8041 - Final Poll ID of contest All matches in this contest have a start time of 8:00 PM EST. The first matches will start later today. Hopefully the contest doesn't get delayed again, after being previously delayed 2 times. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ! |
So I'm participating in:
dilateDChemist (edited 3/26/2020 2:21:27 AM) |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The only one of these I have even a shadow of doubt about is P4/RDR, and even then I'm pretty confident in RDR. Haha I ended up going with the opposites of all those. P4G I expect to ride the P5/P5R/Smash wave to victory over RDR. I'm thinking 53-47. Then I expect it to lose to GTAV by about the same margin. Tales does very well in polls, so I think the series vote will push it past HK (Indies do poorly in polls). I like MH because of the Smash/Series factor. Animal Crossing is smokin hot right now and this is NintendoFAQs Dark Souls couldn't crack 30% on LTTP. I feel like TLOU would approach 35%. ~Jacksonville Jaguars~ |
SwiftyDC posted... So I'm participating in: sign up for guest writeups for the Analysis Crew that goes for everyone |
The matches giving me pause right now: Fire Emblem 71 vs Overwatch - My gut says Overwatch, given Fire Emblem blows chunks, but that 2 seed has me questioning things. Is the latest game actually popular enough to warrant a 2 seed? Portal 2/RDR2 - Ggut says Portal, i heard a lot of mixed reviews about RDR2 compared to the original Batman/Bioshock Infinite - Batman was great, Bioshock is terrible, i want to pick Batman here, but I know a lot of people like those garbage Bioshock games. Then again, Bioshock has never done particularly well in contests Pokemon/NieR - I really want to pick Nier here, since it's an amazing game that I feel got the attention it deserved, over s***ty Pokemon rehash #481. Think I'll go with the upset, given how well doubting G/S/C in the last GotD worked out for me Witcher 3/Skyrim - Historical trends would probably comfortably take Skyrim here, but I think the Netflix series being so damn good might syphon some support. This is probably the closest thing to an actual GotD in the real world we're going to get in this contest, given how absolutely s***e BotW is to everyone but the most hardcore Nintendo nuthuggers "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Bioshock has never done particularly well in contests BioShock has done really well in contests Infinite I wouldn't hold the same expectations for (edited 3/26/2020 6:24:19 AM) |
also LOL anyone picking Overwatch to beat anything other than bad fodder |
Yeah, I feel queasy enough picking it to beat bad fodder. Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru. My bracket was soft... just like my heart! |
plasmabeam posted... P4G I expect to ride the P5/P5R/Smash wave to victory over RDR. Eh, people expected P3 to benefit from P4's popularity in 2015 and that didn't really happen. You'd have to be banking on a lot of people starting at P5 and then deciding to go back and play the other ones, which aren't readily available if you don't have a Vita or a PS2. plasmabeam posted... Tales does very well in polls Symphonia does well in polls. This is an important distinction to make...! plasmabeam posted... Animal Crossing is smokin hot right now and this is NintendoFAQs Same as above. Just because people are playing the new one doesn't mean it's going to give the old one a big boost if people didn't already like it to begin with. New Leaf was in 2015 and didn't exactly look good. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Fire Emblem 71 vs Overwatch - My gut says Overwatch, given Fire Emblem blows chunks, but that 2 seed has me questioning things. Is the latest game actually popular enough to warrant a 2 seed? I'd expect Three Houses to be the strongest and Awakening could probably win that too. Overwatch looked fine in goty polls, which is the best it can hope for, it's probably a good bit worse. I don't give it a chance there unless outside interference comes I suppose. Portal looked rather weak last contest, but good before that. I'd think it's more GameFAQs type of game. Batman is popular enough here to win that. If it was the original BioShock I'd be in doubt. I've been really torn on Nier/HGSS as well. Thinking Skyrim still wins that, but Witcher 3 does have a high ceiling. I wouldn't call it closest thing to actual GotD though. If you look at GotD across all sites, BotW is still overall favorite. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
creativename posted... And about what are people entering as the tiebreaker? i'm going with 2300000, based on this luster post: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78481886/935960447 Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
I've
got a feeling Xenoblade might take Divison 4 now. I never played the
original but that latest trailer did make it look really good. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Is the latest game actually popular enough to warrant a 2 seed?Yes lol If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
I
also will personally argue that in W3 v Skyrim that SFF will work in
Witcher's favor. Based on what I've seen across various board on this
site, Witcher is almost universally considered to be the new peak of
WRPGs and will look really good next to Skyrim specifically. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
I
know arguing with Black Turtle is pointless, but Breath of the Wild
sounds like one of the last Zelda games deserving of that description. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
LusterSoldier posted... https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3425- Absolutely insane how much the total users on this site has dropped over the years. Just looking at those polls: 2009: 107,940 total votes 2010: 72,951 2012: 43,504 2016: 20,504 2019: 11,548 Not sure if that is utter mismanagement running this site or more options causing users to look elsewhere, probably a bit of both. FFRK ID: 24F2 - Tyro DVG |
Matches that worry me most (crucial matches that worry me mostest in bold): Round 1: Halo Reach/Life is Strange Devil May Cry 5/Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze Rocket League/Dragon Ball FighterZ Uncharted 4/Mario Kart 8 Round 2: Monster Hunter: World/ Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice Final Fantasy XIV/Mario Kart 8/Uncharted 4 Round 3: Grand Theft Auto V/Persona 4 Golden Xenoblade Chronicles/Fire Emblem: Three Houses Round 4: Grand Theft Auto V/Xenoblade Chronicles/Fire Emblem: Three Houses -- Nothing really worth worrying after that, IMO. It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. |
Well, today's poll is interesting when it come to this contest. dilateDChemist |
That round 4 match is going to the bottom pick. |
Zenithian Legend posted... Absolutely insane how much the total users on this site has dropped over the years. Just looking at those polls: GameFAQs is known for being a site with text guides for old games. Much like newspapers, a majority of the loss is simply the natural decline of a dying way to ingest information. There is probably still a little more that could have been done to mitigate that loss. Heck, I feel like it hasn't been THAT long since HTML guides finally became a thing. I noticed some games have links to video guides but it's not enough. If I need help on how to get past something in a newer game I tend to go to YouTube first. "That was unnecessarily dramatic". - NY Mets motto (courtesy of InnerTubeHero) |
shane15 posted... That round 4 match is going to the bottom pick. Sorry, I don't understand what you just said... It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. (edited 3/26/2020 12:54:39 PM) |
Dear God, Division 4 is killing me... It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... The matches giving me pause right now: Fire Emblem easily. I think Kingdom Hearts III crushes the lower half of that division. KH3 is being undervalued because it didn't appear in last year's GotY polls. Don't sleep on it. Batman, but I struggled with this one too. Pokémon easily. Too much Nintendo/casual appeal. Witcher 3 because of the Netflix boost and Switch port. ~Jacksonville Jaguars~ |
shane15 posted... I've got a feeling Xenoblade might take Divison 4 now. I never played the original but that latest trailer did make it look really good. Xenoblade is my second-favorite RPG of the past 10 years, but I never even considered taking it over FE3H. Fire Emblem is a household name at this point. Xenoblade is still niche. LeonhartFour posted... Eh, people expected P3 to benefit from P4's popularity in 2015 and that didn't really happen. You'd have to be banking on a lot of people starting at P5 and then deciding to go back and play the other ones, which aren't readily available if you don't have a Vita or a PS2. P5 was the series' breakout game though, and Joker in Smash brought a new level of relevancy to the series. Also, for what it's worth, I've played RDR but haven't played P4, and yet I'm voting P4 solely because of how much I loved P5. Symphonia does well in polls. This is an important distinction to make...! Recent Tales games have killed it in "Which upcoming game are you looking forward to" polls. Obviously not the same as a contest scenario, but that tells me GameFAQs users love the series. I think the Series Factor will be enough to help Berseria beat an indie game like HK. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7623-which-of-sundays-newly-announced-titles-are-you-most-looking https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6015-which-scheduled-october-release-are-you-most-looking-forward Same as above. Just because people are playing the new one doesn't mean it's going to give the old one a big boost if people didn't already like it to begin with. New Leaf was in 2015 and didn't exactly look good. Hard to gauge New Leaf's strength when it gets SFF'd by Mario World. Also got triple-SFF'd in a 2013 GotY poll. I like to take chances on untested entities. That's how I nearly won in '05 when I took Vincent to win the Devil Division. ~Jacksonville Jaguars~ (edited 3/26/2020 1:28:47 PM) |
plasmabeam posted... P5 was the series' breakout game though No, that was Persona 4. And people playing as Joker in Smash isn't going to make people want to vote for Persona 4 plasmabeam posted... Hard to gauge New Leaf's strength when it gets SFF'd by Mario World. Also got triple-SFF'd in a 2013 GotY poll. I like to take chances on untested entities. I mean you realize it got tripled SFF'd because it isn't good, right? the original Animal Crossing couldn't even beat World of Warcraft this is like that whole "Mega Man X must have SFF'd Isabelle!" no Isabelle just sucks and nobody actually cares about her how much SFF do you really think Mario World is putting up on an Animal Crossing game? not a lot, I imagine also fun fact most Tales fans don't like Zestiria so that should tell you how worthless those polls are and the competition in those polls is absolutely dreadful (edited 3/26/2020 1:34:49 PM) |
LeonhartFour posted... also fun fact most Tales fans don't like Zestiria so that should tell you how worthless those polls are Glad Berseria just happens to be the game that's universally seen as redeeming the Zestiria plotline then! |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Glad Berseria just happens to be the game that's universally seen as redeeming the Zestiria plotline then! but the point is that those polls mean absolutely nothing because they come out before the fanbase has a chance to play it and hate it and again it's up against absolutely dreadful competition almost all of those games would be bottom feeders in this contest (edited 3/26/2020 1:37:05 PM) |
LeonhartFour posted... but the point is that those polls mean absolutely nothing because they come out before the fanbase has a chance to play it and hate it Yeah I know, but the irony in your post was just too perfect not to point out. |
LeonhartFour posted... No, that was Persona 4.Idk how one defines 'breakthrough', but P5 is inarguably on a completely different level of success. Multimillions in sales, mainstream acclaim from TGA, Smash etc. I agree that it's hard to know how much if that success will translate into strength for P4. Personally, I'd argue that if it does well it will have less to do with P5 and more to do with the site continuing to shrink, leaving only the core RPG loving weebs left. If you're only on
this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on
to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
that's not really irony it wouldn't have meant any more if it were Berseria in that poll instead |
P5
was allowed to have a new level of success thanks to P4's breakthrough,
much like how FFVIII outsold FFVII and MGS2 outsold MGS1. That game
isn't nearly as big of a deal if the JRPG community didn't latch onto
P4. (edited 3/26/2020 1:40:29 PM) |
Idk about anyone else, but I'm specifically voting against P4G in every match, because it shouldn't be in the contest. At least HG/SS and RE2 got complete overhauls. P4G is just the 'definitive edition' of Persona 4. My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XIV XV |
"Witcher 3 got a Switch port" is not a good argument in favor of it against Skyrim... Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
Idk,
I mostly agree, but based on sales and reception, I'd say there was a
much bigger RELATIVE jump from P4 -> P5 than FFVII -> FFVIII.
We're talking a tripling of sales and an overall much larger mainstream
profile. FFVI -> FFVII (worldwide, not just in the US) feels more
appropriate; yes that's severely overstating it in terms of scale, but
like P4, FFVI sold well worldwide, was a critical darling, and had a
large cult following, but FFVII was a big jump up in sales and profile. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
@Seanchan posted... GameFAQs is known for being a site with text guides for old games. Much like newspapers, a majority of the loss is simply the natural decline of a dying way to ingest information. Great points! I definitely agree YT is a major catalyst for the decline. I'd be curious to see how traffic has varied for similar sites (assuming there are any). I'm not really sure how Gamefaqs could have better incorporated video into the site to stay modern (for lack of a better term), and it's probably too late now. I also considered another reason; that being how games do a lot more hand-holding now with in-game tutorials that go way beyond what the 8-bit era through the PS1/N64 era instruction manuals provided. <Insert "Back in my day..." reference here> FFRK ID: 24F2 - Tyro DVG |
Yeah
Leonhart is right. Persona 4 gave the series a foothold and P5
capitalised on it. Without Persona 4 who knows what would've happened to
the series. |
Oh,
it's probably more apt because P5 will be stronger than P4 in terms of
contest strength, but P4's success is what allowed P5 to get more
mainstream traction. I wouldn't call FFVI's following "cult" regardless
though. FFVII just had the opportunity to introduce the series to a
brand new audience because of its debut on Playstation. I guess it just depends on how you define "breakthrough." If you're just talking about the biggest commercialized, mainstream success, then yeah, P5 is it. But if you're talking about the game that made people by and large take notice of the series, that's P4. People were at least aware of the series' existence because of P4, even if they didn't play it (which became increasingly difficult to do if you didn't have a PS2 or a Vita). (edited 3/26/2020 2:00:02 PM) |
Last minute jitters probably ruined my bracket. dilateDChemist |
SwiftyDC posted... Last minute jitters probably ruined my bracket. I'm 100% gonna change something in the new few hours and start moaning about it when i get it wrong. |
i
dont think the average gamer was all that aware of Persona before
Persona 5. P4 didnt get anywhere remotely near the amount of attention
from mainstream gaming media that P5 did. (i mean, hell, P5 got a custom
made trailer for Joker in smash in what was arguably the biggest gaming
event of the year) nowdays you can indeed say most people know what it is at least. the cult following of P4 did play a large part in allowing P5 to be succesful. but Persona 5 was the series real breakout in every sense (commercial success, recognizability, acclaim, etc) |
I
feel like P4 got a lot of attention just from Giant Bomb's endurance
run 10 years ago alone. LPs made games that would be relatively niche in
other eras get to be more widespread in terms of name recognition. |
It's
true we can quibble over what counts as 'breakthrough' and it's not
worth arguing too much about that aspect. I certainly agree that P4
provided P5 the platform it needed (i mean it got two billion spinoffs
after all, that's certainly a big step up for the series), I just
personally think P5 'overperformed' with that platform and did way
better than could have been expected with P4's setup. Ultimately though, I agree with your assessment that P4 won't get THAT much of a splash back from P5, though I feel it'll get a little bit and be a bit stronger than 2015. How someone has P4's matches going has less to do with P5 and more to do with the systemic question of, "Can a high quality JRPG with a sizable cult following overpower some of the best selling and highest rated games of their time". Personally I'm inclined to take P4 over the Rockstar games, though I certainly don't feel good about it. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
Struggling not to commit Bracket Seppuku at the last minute. Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru. My bracket was soft... just like my heart! |
In
terms of widespread lasting appeal, was there a jrpg stronger than
persona 4 released between 2007 and, uh, persona 5? (Assuming you don’t
count Undertale) I don’t think there was. That’s partly a massive indictment of the genre but yeah. [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO Advokaiser NO PEACE] |
Currently have FFXIV > U4 in Round 2. Someone talk me off the ledge. dilateDChemist |
SwiftyDC posted... Currently have FFXIV > U4 in Round 2. Mario Kart could beat both. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Mario Kart could beat both. I had MK8 since Day 1, but if the mass majority of the voters are intelligent, Mario Kart is not GOTD material IMO. dilateDChemist |
hylianknight3 posted... Struggling not to commit Bracket Seppuku at the last minute.The only change I made was going with Animal Crossing instead of SF5. I don't care if I'm wrong. f*** Street Fighter 5. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
UltimaterializerX posted... The only change I made was going with Animal Crossing instead of SF5. That's not bracket sepukku imo. Street Fighter V has lost to a Digimon game and to Zero Escape in a poll. The likes of Destiny and Hearthstone might provide a match to it. (edited 3/26/2020 2:47:03 PM) |
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