Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1328

Dark Souls just seems like a more Gamefaqs game to me, so I went with it.

I mean, you say that, but TLOU was pretty impressive in 2015.

Agreed with some of the other commenters that TLOU does feel a little forgotten in terms of “prestige” single player games (even though it was widely hailed as one of the best games of all time after release). This is very loose evidence but circa late 2019 I definitely saw DS higher in GOTD rankings in both digital and video publications/streamers/etc. I wouldn’t hang my hat on those being dispositive, but still worth considering.

I wonder too if TLOU takes a bit of a hit because GOW 2018 seemed to displace it as “the” single player, strong narrative story game of the generation/decade.

Didn’t really think through Skyrim - guessing consensus is that it’s a still buzzsaw on this site?

FWIW I have DS in the finals for my pass through the bracket but now I’m reconsidering because of Skyrim.

That Dark Souls is hard feels like more of a praise it gets from casuals, which has always been weird to me.

I think some of us expect Skyrim to be weaker due to Bethesda's reputation being in tatters. Doesn't help that Bethesda's game design, ESPECIALLY from Fallout 3 onwards has gotten a lot of criticism in light of such. Plus Skyrim has been re-released a lot and people might be tired of it, especially if Bethesda is using it as a crutch the way Capcom did with RE4.

I mean, you say that, but TLOU was pretty impressive in 2015.

Not a bad point, but honestly, 30% on Link to the Past doesn't sound out of reach for 40% on KH2. Plus things might have changed since then.

I don't feel like Fallout's fallout affects Skyrim all that much.

And it doesn't sound out of reach, but it projects a 55% win for TLOU. And the sequel is coming out not too long after their match is scheduled to take place. Heck, with all these delays, it might eventually take place on the release date.

Regardless, I would expect some sort of TLOU2 trailer to drop during the contest.

Again, not a bad point, but a lot of it is Bethesda as a whole, which does include Elder Scrolls. Especially as that's THEIR franchise whereas they bought the rights to Fallout from a struggling Interplay.

Someone like you who isn't particularly well-versed in the games might not see much of a connection between Fallout and Elder Scrolls, which is fine because who the heck knows how contest popularity works? Heck that's the fun of this whole thing! Just providing my take, that's all.

Maybe with characters, but with games, I'd be surprised if Fallout's fallout even affected Fallout that much.

I feel like Dark Souls has the benefit of age and appreciation on a site like gamefaqs vs TLoU which I replayed recently and its aged poorly.

If Sony had shown another gameplay trailer yesterday at the PS5 thing for TLoU2 i would have given the victory to TLoU.

I updated the BOP and here or the matches that are still (relatively) undecided.

Round 1
Hollow Knight - 17
Tales of Berseria - 15

Devil May Cry 5 - 17
DKC: Tropical Freeze - 15

Rocket League - 16
Dragon Ball FighterZ - 16

No one seems to have any idea how these three round 1 matches will go. They've been 50-50 from the start.

Round 2
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 16
Monster Hunter: World - 15
Bravely Default - 1

"Have the courage to think and act on your own. And have the courage to disobey."
Another dead even match but this one matters more.

Horizon Zero Dawn - 18
Borderlands 2 - 14

Fire Emblem: Awakening - 17
Bloodborne - 15

Awakening used to be ahead. Then Bloodborne came back. Fire Emblem Awakening is ahead again.

Undertale - 17
Shovel Knight - 12
Octopath Traveler - 3

Round 3
Grand Theft Auto V - 18
Persona 4 Golden - 13
Red Dead Redemption - 1

Persona 4 used to lead but GTA5 overtook Persona 4 and has now built a lead of its own.

Portal 2 - 14
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 10
Kingdom Hearts III - 7
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1

Portal 2 has always lead but RDR2 has made gains over KH3.

Round 4
Mass Effect 2 - 20
Resident Evil 2 - 11
Bloodborne - 1

Not really that close but I do see debate over who wins this one.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 14
Grand Theft Auto V - 10
Xenoblade Chronicles - 5
Persona 4 Golden - 3

GTA5 used to trail Xenoblade. I feel like GTA5 supporters have done good work singing its praises over the last few week. Disclaimer: If GTA5 blows up, it's not our fault.

The Last of Us - 15
Dark Souls - 15
Metal Gear Solid V - 1
Batman: Arkham City - 1

Dead even split for a division final.

Round 6
Elder Scrolls: Skyrim - 15
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 9
Pokemon HeartGold - 5
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 2
Persona 5 - 1

Skyrim isn't winning by enough? I've seen complaints about users who are downplaying Skyrim. But, Skyrim is still the favourite to reach the finals and always has been.

Full results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yHeZ2oCBFRB5Trf8mxMfoYL71lxa1ecAMEvGnVE_o_w/edit?usp=sharing

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Round 2
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 16
Monster Hunter: World - 15
Bravely Default - 1

"Have the courage to think and act on your own. And have the courage to disobey."
Another dead even match but this one matters more.

huh, didn't expect this to be a hotly debated match!

i have monster hunter: world btw.

darn I picked GTAV as a sleeper pick

now that it's the favorite I almost want to switch and pick against it

I shoved GTA5 in the div final as an insurance pick.

it'd be interesting if they ran that "how often do you visit gamefaqs" poll during this pandemic

this is my third time visiting this site today (I usually visit around once a day)

LeonhartFour posted...

also Smash 4 for 3DS and Smash 4 for Wii U are technically different games

I would anti-vote the 3DS version in a heartbeat because that thing is a mess to play

Theyre the same games in terms of how this contest works. ITs like saying Skyrim switch version is technically different from Skyrim 360. I mean sure it is. But its the same game. More so in Smash case.

LeonhartFour posted...

darn I picked GTAV as a sleeper pick

now that it's the favorite I almost want to switch and pick against it

Pick against it

Ignore these fav picks

GTAV is not making the final.

GTAV... a sleeper pick?

It's the deceiving "obvious" choice that could potentially kill several casual brackets if the JRPGs surpass it.

It's basically San Andreas vs. Golden Sun all over again.

Well, it's actually 2015 but on a more unpredictable scale.

Having P4G or 3H in the Quarterfinals just looks weird.

Advokaiser posted...

GTAV... a sleeper pick?

It's the deceiving "obvious" choice that could potentially kill several casual brackets if the JRPGs surpass it.

I mean as a sleeper pick on B8 since we usually go against GTA these days

I don't really care about what the average casual bracket has

GTA V is easily going to be the consensus pick overall for its division, and probably Top 5 prediction for the overall championship.

Here, it's an underdog because we've GTA underperform so many times that we know better.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

GTA V is easily going to be the consensus pick overall for its division, and probably Top 5 prediction for the overall championship.

Here, it's an underdog because we've GTA underperform so many times that we know better.

And yet none of its competition for the division crown inspires a lot of confidence. So maybe this is GTA's year!

Like I said, a killer virus will drive the casuals to our site and vote GTA out of boredom.

I have GTAV losing to Xenoblade in the divisional finals.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I have GTAV losing to Xenoblade in the divisional finals.

same

SwiftyDC posted...

Having P4G or 3H in the Quarterfinals just looks weird.

SMRPG in the 2015 semis looked weird, as well.

Advokaiser posted...

SMRPG in the 2015 semis looked weird, as well.

Eh, that's not quite the same.

How do you think the votal will be affected by the Corina virus? Have you increase your tiebreaker?

I've already locked in my bracket nearly 2 weeks ago, and I don't want to change my tiebreaker because that would change the submission time of my bracket and make it harder to appear on the leaderboard during the contest.

But I would certainly recommend increasing your tiebreaker if you haven't finished your bracket yet. Previously, I had recommended a range of 1900000 to 2300000, but I will revise this and increase the range to 2100000 to 2500000.

We are already seeing higher vote totals in the regular polls this month compared to the polls from February. The average is only about 700 votes higher, though.

Leonhart4 posted...

Eh, that's not quite the same.

Why not?

Because Super Mario RPG is, well, a Square RPG with Mario in the title. The only reason it was considered strange to see it so deep is because of all the competition it would've had to beat to get there. Mario RPG isn't some niche game and had already proven to be quite popular in previous appearances.

three houses isn't some niche game either.

i get your point that it's different from SMRPG but yeah.

I mean, Fire Emblem is still a second tier Nintendo series. Three Houses is definitely raising the series profile, but yeah, it's not the same as Mario RPG, which has literally all the ingredients needed to be popular on GameFAQs.

The only thing surprising about Super Mario RPG's run was how generally dominant it was, but that entire contest was the Super Nintendo asserting itself.

Advokaiser posted...

GTAV... a sleeper pick?

It's the deceiving "obvious" choice that could potentially kill several casual brackets if the JRPGs surpass it.

It's basically San Andreas vs. Golden Sun all over again.

Well, it's actually 2015 but on a more unpredictable scale.

As the person who pushed Golden Sun > San Andreas the most, GTA5 is stronger than San Andreas and Golden Sun is stronger than all the JRPGs in that division

KamikazePotato posted...

As the person who pushed Golden Sun > San Andreas the most,...

Yeah, I still remember only freaking 11% of the site went with i--

Golden Sun is stronger than all the JRPGs in that division

Hmm… I was about to say that this was a stretch but it may not be. Golden Sun is kinda niche, though.

There's no way i'd take Golden Sun over Persona 4 or Xenoblade,

Well, 2010 Golden Sun was, anyway. The series has probably fallen off since then but back in the day it was popular. The series is consistently underrated on B8 despite showing more strength than its contemporaries - like, 2010 Persona 4 gets demolished by Golden Sun.

KamikazePotato posted...

Well, 2010 Golden Sun was, anyway. The series has probably fallen off since then but back in the day it was popular. The series is consistently underrated on B8 despite showing more strength than its contemporaries - like, 2010 Persona 4 gets demolished by Golden Sun.

Isaac still did fairly decent in 2018. With GameFAQs being a site that thrives on nostalgia from old Nintendo stuff, I think Golden Sun would probably still do pretty well here, relatively speaking.

I think Xenoblade gets really overvalued here, but I think it's partly because B8 as a whole loves it so much.

KamikazePotato posted...

Well, 2010 Golden Sun was, anyway. The series has probably fallen off since then but back in the day it was popular. The series is consistently underrated on B8 despite showing more strength than its contemporaries - like, 2010 Persona 4 gets demolished by Golden Sun.

Remember when Golden Sun was supposed to be in the 2009 contest, but someone decided that Fire Emblem should replace it, despite being against Melee? That was really dumb, especially since knowing more about Golden Sun's strength would have been handy for GS vs. SA.

Yeah Xenoblade is either my #1 or #2 favorite game depending on which day of the week you ask me, but if it wins the division I'd be pretty surprised. It wasn't that great in 2015 and while it's probably a bit stronger now it, at the very least, has no business beating Three Houses.

I remember B8 making the wrong decision all but 1 or 2 of the Add/Remove suggestions. Smash 64 getting removed for Soul Calibur was insanity.

By the way...

I'm tempted to pick Tales of Berseria over FFXV.

I feel like Velvet > Noctis may be looked at like a "whatever" kind of result (especially since characters =/= games), but FFXV Barely edged out Pokémon Sun/Moon at its prime, while Berseria has become the most respected Tales of game since Vesperia.

Advokaiser posted...

By the way...

I'm tempted to pick Tales of Berseria over FFXV.

I feel like Velvet > Noctis may be looked at like a "whatever" kind of result (especially since characters =/= games), but FFXV Barely edged out Pokémon Sun/Moon at its prime, while Berseria has become the most respected Tales of game since Vesperia.

Do it you wont

LeonhartFour posted...

Isaac still did fairly decent in 2018.

Eh, that depends on whether you think Kirby SFF'd him or not. I'm increasingly inclined to agree with the SFF theory, but if not, you get an inexplicable decline from 22% on Steroid Snake to 29.5% on Kirby - and in general, letting Kirby break 70% on you isn't exactly a mark of strength. That being said, I do think I'd take Golden Sun over Xenoblade in a contest match.

A mainline Final Fantasy game that won Game of the Year losing to a second-string Tales game that isn't nostalgic for most of this site?

Sure, why not. I'm not taking it but I'm not going to be surprised if FF15 craps the bed.

(Hollow Knight beats Berseria though)

MetalmindStats posted...

Eh, that depends on whether you think Kirby SFF'd him or not. I'm increasingly aligned to agree with the SFF theory, but if not, you get an inexplicable decline from 22% on Steroid Snake to 29.5% on Kirby - and in general, letting Kirby break 70% on you isn't exactly a mark of strength. That being said, I do think I'd take Golden Sun over Xenoblade in a contest match.

I mean, I wasn't suggesting he'd keep all his strength over that five year period, but I'd wager he's still a low midcarder/high fodder character.

KamikazePotato posted...

I remember B8 making the wrong decision all but 1 or 2 of the Add/Remove suggestions. Smash 64 getting removed for Soul Calibur was insanity.

Yeah, B8 was silly about a few of those. I tried to get Turtles in Time in over Battletoads, and people were like, "no way dude," which made no sense! Turtles in Time would've done way better!

I did get Mortal Kombat II in over Super Street Fighter II though!

For some reason, I'd be willing to take Berseria > FFXV (in case it happens), but definitely not Hollow Knight > FFXV (also in case it happens). Maybe because of possible rSFF.

LeonhartFour posted...

I mean, I wasn't suggesting he'd keep all his strength over that five year period, but I'd wager he's still a low midcarder/high fodder character.

That's the thing, though: other Nintendo JRPG characters have kept all their strength over those five years, or even seemingly improved in the cases of Ness and Shulk. Isaac failing to do the same if you take his results at face value is pretty inexplicable, considering Dark Dawn had already happened (and directly led to a decline) in between 2010 and 2013.

Shulk and Ness had pretty good reasons to improve from 2013 that aren't related to their game of origin.

I don't know that I trust Bowser's division in general though. Some of those numbers just don't line up unless Kirby SFF'd Phoenix and/or Isaac.

Or Bowser rSFF'd Kirby...!