Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1328

No more contest delays, please.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

Eventually we gotta update the link to the wiki. New URL was over a year ago.

(Posted this in the last topic)

Do you think Mario Kart 8 not being the Deluxe version will hurt it a little?

Battle Mode being added was huge. The port was way better.

Tag

I'd have thought this was one thing I could look forward to not being delated and it kinda still gets that title, but they sure try their best.

Uncharted 4 / Mario Kart 8 is one of the matches where both choices doesn't feel quite right to me and it's worth 3 points.

I had Uncharted 4 originally as i saw MK8 as just a middle of the road Nintendo game. Actually i had FF14>Uncharted>MK8. The board convinced me otherwise though. I doubt Uncharted 4 will have many people caring about it now.

So if The Last of Us 2 gets delayed due to the coronavirus, do you think people will be petty and childish enough to antivote the first game?

If RE3 is still coming out i see no reason why TLOU2 should be delayed.

U4 v MK 8 is gonna be a test for the rest of the bracket.

U4 is more in line with what most people on this site want, a single player action game with a strong plot. AND there's still a decent Sony presence on this site, and UC is one of the premier Sony franchises.

MK8 is a multiplayer racing game, which most ppl here dgaf about (I believe it's the only racing game in bracket) BUT, it's frickin Mario.

Basically what I'm saying is, does being frickin Mario/Nintendo override literally other aspect of the games in contention?

Games like Uncharted tend do a lot worse here than they would on most sites though.

Turd of the round might end of being Mass Effect 2 even for the simple fact it wont look good against fallout 4

SwiftyDC posted...

(Posted this in the last topic)

Do you think Mario Kart 8 not being the Deluxe version will hurt it a little?

Battle Mode being added was huge. The port was way better.

I don't think it will. I think voters will treat it as being a representative of both versions. Similarly DQ11 will still gets support from people who played the Switch version even though that is DQ11 S. Oddly enough, I think MK8 Deluxe might be weaker since people who played the original MK8 might not vote for it.

Does anyone have the adjusted x-stats from 2018?

AxemRedRanger posted...

Does anyone have the adjusted x-stats from 2018?

I've got individual division X-Stats. With how crazy the double elimination stuff went, it was hard to make full blown stats because results contradict each other at almost every turn.

Anyone have Bioshock Infinite > Batman?

Bioshock really took it to MGS3 back in 2015, but I feel like Batman's name value will pull indifferent votes.

plasmabeam posted...

Anyone have Bioshock Infinite > Batman?

Bioshock really took it to MGS3 back in 2015, but I feel like Batman's name value will pull indifferent votes.

Infinite ain't the original

Leonhart4 posted...

I've got individual division X-Stats. With how crazy the double elimination stuff went, it was hard to make full blown stats because results contradict each other at almost every turn.

Yeah, those would be good.

Yeah, I think Arkham City has fared better to the passage of time than Infinite.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I don't think it will. I think voters will treat it as being a representative of both versions. Similarly DQ11 will still gets support from people who played the Switch version even though that is DQ11 S. Oddly enough, I think MK8 Deluxe might be weaker since people who played the original MK8 might not vote for it.

Why wouldn’t they vote for it? Wii U sucked.

Division 1

Ganondorf – 50.00%
Vivi – 48.04%
Dante – 43.60%
Donkey Kong – 43.26%
Chun-Li – 41.09%
Leon Kennedy – 38.35%
Tidus – 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon – 36.02%
Lightning – 29.98%
Cuphead – 24.77%
Yu Narukami – 24.13%
Dragonborn – 24.02%
Aya Brea – 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba – 21.40%
Victor Sullivan – 19.08%
Chloe Price – 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu – 50.00%
Yoshi – 45.20%
Zero – 43.44%
Vivi – 38.32%
Knuckles the Echidna – 38.10%
Kratos – 36.59%
Wario – 34.53%
Scorpion – 33.59%
Zidane Tribal – 32.92%
Master Hand – 26.96%
Velvet Crowe – 26.55%
Monika – 24.47%
Shantae – 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum – 22.89%
Primrose – 22.43%
James Sunderland – 20.69%
John Marston – 19.63%

Division 3

Alucard – 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red – 46.19%
Sora – 45.36%
Big Boss – 44.18%
Princess Peach – 43.19%
Crash Bandicoot – 41.64%
Kefka – 40.56%
Yuna – 40.38%
Ridley – 38.29%
Cecil Harvey – 38.16%
Bomberman – 32.59%
L-Block – 32.29%
Ryo Hazuki – 28.05%
Kazuma Kiryu – 25.50%
Neptune – 22.80%
Godot – 22.16%

Division 4

Bowser – 50.00%
Kirby – 46.14%
Charizard – 43.45%
2B – 41.81%
Terra Branford – 41.02%
Ness – 38.70%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 36.17%
Phoenix Wright – 29.24%
Ike – 28.86%
Isaac – 27.42%
Chris Redfield – 25.19%
Guile – 23.49%
Gordon Freeman – 22.61%
Joel – 21.74%
Estelle Bright – 19.40%
Cayde-6 – 18.56%

Division 5

Zelda - 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough – 37.81%
Squall Leonhart – 36.68%
Fox McCloud – 35.77%
Jill Valentine – 32.83%
Waluigi – 32.19%
Captain Toad – 30.26%
The Boss – 29.30%
Shovel Knight – 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian – 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve – 26.06%
Metal Sonic – 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67%
D. Va – 20.37%
Aloy – 19.18%
Hat Kid – 17.69%

Division 6

Auron – 50.00%
Geralt – 46.86%
Bayonetta – 46.04%
Simon Belmont – 44.81%
Vincent Valentine – 44.20%
Pac-Man – 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa – 44.10%
Sub-Zero – 43.29%
Magus – 42.53%
Rosalina – 41.21%
Lucina – 34.56%
Riku – 32.77%
Shulk – 32.41%
Claire Redfield – 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya – 27.12%
Sans – 25.27%

Division 7

Tifa Lockhart – 50.00%
Mega Man X – 49.82%
Luigi – 48.64%
Mewtwo – 41.90%
Frog – 37.33%
Revolver Ocelot – 31.48%
GlaDOS – 31.44%
King Dedede – 31.17%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 29.52%
Geno – 26.81%
Master Chief – 26.29%
Nathan Drake – 25.55%
Miles Edgeworth – 21.92%
Isabelle – 19.28%
Monokuma – 17.64%
Goro Majima – 16.29%

Division 8

Sephiroth – 50.00%
Ryu – 39.74%
Amaterasu – 38.63%
Captain Falcon – 35.07%
Lara Croft – 34.84%
Albert Wesker – 29.72%
Richter Belmont – 27.78%
KOS-MOS – 27.76%
Commander Shepard – 26.59%
King K. Rool – 25.93%
Ellie – 25.29%
Lloyd Irving – 25.08%
Aqua – 23.66%
Metal Man – 22.37%
Quiet – 16.98%
Draven – 9.16%

Now I can try (and have tried) to compile some X-Stats based on the double elimination phase, but it'll be all over the place!

So many of those X-stats results would have been hilarious.

Chun-Li > Tidus/Leon, DK/Dante being close, KOS-MOS > Shepard, Geno > Chief, Metal Sonic > Ezio, Simon > Vincent, Shantae > Noctis.

I think strong DK is here to stay as weird as that sounds...!

LeonhartFour posted...

I think strong DK is here to stay as weird as that sounds...!

FFIX is going to get a remake and DK will get a massive boost, as he is set to always remain at 44-45% on Vivi.

@creativename

If you have configured the match updater to start today, you'll want to postpone that by changing the starting Poll ID to 7914. The contest was delayed for a second time earlier this week to make room for a server migration move.

Okay, so here's the double elimination X-Stats giving everyone their best possible number, which is tricky, of course, because it outright contradicts other results. It's why using those to make X-Stats is tough! I'll leave in Solid Snake through Zelda and Solid Snake through Samus as an example:

Link – 50.00%
Cloud Strife – 40.73%
Mario – 40.53%
Samus Aran – 40.51%
Zelda – 39.87%
Solid Snake – 39.61%
Solid Snake – 35.26%
Crono – 35.25%
Pikachu – 35.18%
Mega Man – 35.10%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 34.73%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.56%
Sephiroth – 33.03%
Alucard – 32.26%
Bowser – 31.81%
Auron – 31.72%
Ganondorf – 28.06%

Snake/Zelda 55/45s Snake/Samus based on those numbers, which makes for a pretty wide disparity. Sonic is pretty consistent between Snake and Zelda in his two losses, which makes me think the oddity is Snake/Samus (yet again). For the record, Sonic through Snake/Samus is at just above 29%, which is, well, terrible, and it would make Auron look really bad, too.

Ganondorf is boned no matter what you do because he got Link round 1 and got Bacondorf sprite against Mega Man in round 2, so basically he and the entire division gets undervalued. I might try to make a set of X-Stats just based off of the best possible value for each character. It'll be way off in some places, but eh, better than nothing, I guess!

Of course, the counter to what you did with normal Snake is that Sonic > Sephiroth just feels really weird.

...On the other hand, Alucard/Sephiroth being close and the implication that Crash beats Ryu now is insane.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Of course, the counter to what you did with normal Snake is that Sonic > Sephiroth just feels really weird.

...On the other hand, Alucard/Sephiroth being close and the implication that Crash beats Ryu now is insane.

Well, Seph looks bad, at least by his standards, no matter what you do. He actually looks better measuring through the loss with Mario than the loss to Tifa. That Ryu result feels really off, too, like Snake/Samus does. I don't know what happened there.

And Alucard was really good in 2018 (Netflix boost...?)! He got almost 40% on Cloud.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

KOS-MOS > Shepard

KOS-MOS didn't even have any real TJF pictures through her entire 2018 run. She got a cupcake fourpack to compensate, and she's still ahead of Shepard!

Also, just as I've been saying, Primrose is barely behind Sans if you set Pikachu equal to Auron, and everyone knows Pikachu would blow Auron away.

I dunno about "blow away." Pikachu would win, but it'd probably be like 55/45.

Yeah, what I meant is that it wouldn't be particularly close, not to imply that Pikachu would shoot well into the 60s or anything like that.

All this talk about Persona 4 Golden and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being weaker because of the version in question reminds me how ridiculous it was to omit the 3DS version of Smash 4 for 2015.

Anyway, people who would vote for Mario Kart 8 will probably just assume the Deluxe version is implicitly included.

As far as Persona 4 Golden... Eh... It's by far the strongest game of one of the most utterly dead consoles on the site, so... I guess it balances out? How strong can the strongest Vita game be? Enough to antivote GTAV in JRPGFAQs? That match's practically a coin-flip. A coin flip that directly affects the rest of the field's results.

Advokaiser posted...

Anyway, people who would vote for Mario Kart 8 will probably just assume the Deluxe version is implicitly included.

Eh, that's fine. It's basically the same game, and it's probably more widely played than the original at this point. Plus, MK8 is still a game that came out this decade.

P4G's a bit of a different situation. It has more reasons to be weaker than the original than MK8 would (since it's not being advertised as "Deluxe" in the first place).

also Smash 4 for 3DS and Smash 4 for Wii U are technically different games

I would anti-vote the 3DS version in a heartbeat because that thing is a mess to play

okay here are the X-Stats based on what I posted earlier (although I did tweak a couple of those numbers again before doing this)

there are some areas where the numbers are obviously off but it doesn't matter

@creativename can post these on the site if he so chooses

I also have the Best Year in Gaming X-Stats if you want those too

1. Link – 50.00%
2. Cloud Strife – 40.73%
3. Mario – 40.53%
4. Samus Aran – 40.51%
5. Zelda – 39.87%
6. Solid Snake – 39.61%
7. Crono – 35.25%
8. Pikachu – 35.18%
9. Mega Man – 35.10%
10. Sonic the Hedgehog – 34.73%
11. Tifa Lockhart – 34.63%
12. Mega Man X – 34.51%
13. Luigi – 33.69%
14. Bowser – 33.08%
15. Sephiroth – 33.03%
16. Alucard – 32.26%
17. Yoshi – 31.80%
18. Auron – 31.72%
19. Zero – 30.56%
20. Kirby – 30.53%
21. Aerith Gainsborough – 30.15%
22. Pokemon Trainer Red – 29.80%
23. Geralt – 29.73%
24. Sora – 29.26%
25. Squall Leonhart – 29.25%
26. Bayonetta – 29.21%
27. Mewtwo – 29.02%
28. Charizard – 28.75%
29. Fox McCloud – 28.52%
30. Big Boss – 28.50%
31. Simon Belmont – 28.43%
32. Ganondorf – 28.06%
33. Vincent Valentine – 28.04%
34. Pac-Man – 28.00%
35. Ryu Hayabusa – 27.98%
36. Princess Peach – 27.87%
37. 2B – 27.66%
38. Sub-Zero – 27.46%
39. Terra Branford – 27.14%
40. Magus – 26.98%
41. Vivi – 26.96%
42. Crash Bandicoot – 26.87%
43. Knuckles the Echidna – 26.81%
44. Ryu – 26.25%
45. Jill Valentine – 26.18%
46. Kefka – 26.17%
47. Rosalina – 26.14%
48. Yuna – 26.05%
49. Frog – 25.85%
50. Kratos – 25.74%
51. Waluigi – 25.67%
52. Ness – 25.60%
53. Amaterasu – 25.52%
54. Ridley – 24.70%
55. Cecil Harvey – 24.62%
56. Dante – 24.47%
57. Wario – 24.30%
58. Donkey Kong – 24.28%
59. Captain Toad – 24.13%
60. Shadow the Hedgehog – 23.93%
61. Scorpion – 23.63%
62. The Boss – 23.36%
63. Captain Falcon – 23.17%
64. Zidane Tribal – 23.16%
65. Chun-Li – 23.06%
66. Lara Croft – 23.02%
67. Shovel Knight – 22.89%
68. Lucina – 21.92%
69. Revolver Ocelot – 21.80%
70. GlaDOS – 21.78%
71. King Dedede – 21.59%
72. Leon Kennedy – 21.52%
73. Garrus Vakarian – 21.04%
74. Bomberman – 21.03%
75. Tidus – 20.91%
76. L-Block – 20.83%
77. Riku – 20.79%
78. Ramza Beoulve – 20.78%
79. Shulk – 20.56%
80. Miles “Tails” Prower – 20.45%
81. Metal Sonic – 20.32%
82. Spyro the Dragon – 20.21%
83. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 19.67%
84. Albert Wesker – 19.63%
85. Phoenix Wright – 19.35%
86. Ike – 19.09%
87. Master Hand – 18.97%
88. Velvet Crowe – 18.68%
89. Geno – 18.57%
90. Claire Redfield – 18.53%
91. Richter Belmont – 18.35%
92. KOS-MOS – 18.34%
93. Master Chief – 18.21%
94. Isaac – 18.14%
95. Ryo Hazuki – 18.10%
96. Nathan Drake – 17.70%
97. Commander Shepard – 17.57%
98. Monika – 17.22%
99. Joker/Ren Amamiya – 17.20%
100. King K. Rool – 17.13%
101. Lightning – 16.82%
102. Ellie – 16.71%
103. Chris Redfield – 16.67%
104. Lloyd Irving - 16.57%
105. Kazuma Kiryu – 16.45%
106. Shantae – 16.37%
107. D.Va – 16.24%
108. Noctis Lucis Caelum – 16.11%
109. Sans – 16.03%
110. Primrose – 15.78%
111. Aqua – 15.63%
112. Guile – 15.54%
113. Aloy – 15.29%
114. Miles Edgeworth – 15.18%
115. Gordon Freeman – 14.96%
116. Metal Man – 14.78%
117. Neptune – 14.71%
118. James Sunderland – 14.56%
119. Joel – 14.38%
120. Godot – 14.30%
121. Hat Kid – 14.11%
122. Cuphead – 13.91%
123. John Marston – 13.81%
124. Yu Narukami – 13.54%
125. Dragonborn – 13.48%
126. Isabelle – 13.35%
127. Aya Brea – 13.24%
128. Estelle Bright – 12.84%
129. Cayde-6 – 12.28%
130. Monokuma – 12.22%
131. Neku Sakuraba – 12.01%
132. Goro Majima – 11.28%
133. Quiet – 11.22%
134. Victor Sullivan – 10.71%
135. Chloe Price – 8.69%
136. Draven – 6.05%

I'll work on an X-Stats bracket in a bit.

what’s the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of “one of the best games ever + most influential” and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

Well now I'm upset we didn't get CECIL TO ROUND 3 as the 16 seed in Dante's division.

....Yes I know Ganondorf is obviously underrated DON'T CARE.

yeah I'm thinking about doing some adjustments where I basically set Ganondorf equal to Bowser/Sephiroth and seeing if that balances things out

I imagine it'll look a lot closer to correct at any rate

McGee4Ever posted...

what’s the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of “one of the best games ever + most influential” and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

bit if both.

think about the type of game dark souls is. Its going to be popular. But not that popular. I doubt many people on gfaqs have even beaten it

Link
Division 1 winner

Pikachu
Division 2 winner

Zelda
Division 3 winner

Samus Aran
Division 4 winner

Solid Snake
Division 5 winner

Mario
Division 6 winner

Crono
Division 7 winner

Cloud Strife
Division 8 winner

Division 1

(1) Mega Man
(16) Draven

(8) Leon Kennedy
(9) Garrus Vakarian

(5) Vivi
(12) Lloyd Irving

(4) Magus
(13) Kazuma Kiryu

(6) Dante
(11) Geno

(3) Squall Leonhart
(14) Godot

(7) Wario
(10) Velvet Crowe

(2) Sora
(15) Hat Kid

Division 2

(1) Alucard
(16) Cayde-6

(8) Chun-Li
(9) Miles "Tails" Prower

(5) Yuna
(12) Commander Shepard

(4) Vincent Valentine
(13) Guile

(6) Frog
(11) Nathan Drake

(3) Ganondorf
(14) Aloy

(7) Zidane Tribal
(10) Metal Sonic

(2) Yoshi
(15) Estelle Bright

Division 3

(1) Luigi
(16) Goro Majima

(8) Lucina
(9) Riku

(5) Jill Valentine
(12) King K. Rool

(4) Princess Peach
(13) Sans

(6) Ness
(11) Master Chief

(3) Fox McCloud
(14) Metal Man

(7) Scorpion
(10) Albert Wesker

(2) Kirby
(15) Dragonborn

Division 4

(1) Mega Man X
(16) Quiet

(8) Revolver Ocelot
(9) L-Block

(5) Ryu
(12) Lightning

(4) 2B
(13) Noctis Lucis Caelum

(6) Amaterasu
(11) KOS-MOS

(3) Charizard
(14) Neptune

(7) Shadow the Hedgehog
(10) Phoenix Wright

(2) Aerith Gainsborough
(15) Yu Narukami

Division 5

(1) Bowser
(16) Neku Sakuraba

(8) Shovel Knight
(9) Ramza Beoulve

(5) Kefka
(12) Joker/Ren Amamiya

(4) Ryu Hayabusa
(13) Primrose

(6) Waluigi
(11) Isaac

(3) Big Boss
(14) Gordon Freeman

(7) The Boss
(10) Ezio Auditore da Firenze

(2) Zero
(15) Isabelle

Division 6

(1) Tifa Lockhart
(16) Victor Sullivan

(8) GlaDOS
(9) Tidus

(5) Knuckles the Echidna
(12) Ellie

(4) Sub-Zero
(13) D.Va

(6) Ridley
(11) Richter Belmont

(3) Mewtwo
(14) James Sunderland

(7) Captain Toad
(10) Ike

(2) Pokemon Trainer Red
(15) John Marston

Division 7

(1) Sephiroth
(16) Monokuma

(8) Lara Croft
(9) Shulk

(5) Rosalina
(12) Monika

(4) Pac-Man
(13) Aqua

(6) Kratos
(11) Ryo Hazuki

(3) Simon Belmont
(14) Miles Edgeworth

(7) Captain Falcon
(10) Spyro the Dragon

(2) Auron
(15) Aya Brea

Division 8

(1) Sonic the Hedgehog
(16) Chloe Price

(8) King Dedede
(9) Bomberman

(5) Crash Bandicoot
(12) Chris Redfield

(4) Terra Branford
(13) Shantae

(6) Cecil Harvey
(11) Claire Redfield

(3) Bayonetta
(14) Joel

(7) Donkey Kong
(10) Master Hand

(2) Geralt
(15) Cuphead

(6) Cecil Harvey
(11) Claire Redfield

so Cecil has the statistical advantage but RE2make gives Claire a good chance. Perfect.

Cecil Never Wins

McGee4Ever posted...

what’s the feeling on Dark Souls? I feel like its reputation has been thoroughly on the side of “one of the best games ever + most influential” and it has a fairly dedicated fan base (and DS1 is the least divisive of the Soulsbournes). Feel like it has a real run in it or is the audience just not here on the site?

it definitely has an audience on this site but it's hard to say how big it is. i have it losing to skyrim but it could very well lose before that.

Dark Souls loses to TLOU or Skyrim take your pick

I have Dark Souls beating both due to potentially mis-placed faith it might have gained in stature. It was only a four-year old game last we saw it, now it's one of the most influential games of the past two or so generations.

Dark Souls was already pretty influential in 2015!

Yeah I just somehow feel as if it might have gained even more in stature since, but who can really say?

I get the impression that TLOU got more respect as a GOTD contender over the years. Dark Souls on the other hard felt like it was only popular because it was hard. I'm probably miles off the mark though as i never played DS and only played a few hours of TLOU.

I do think Dark Souls is the kind of game that got a lot of traction over the years.

If anything I've heard less and less about The Last of Us as time has gone on, although it is definitely a "Game of the Decade". But survival horror vs. Metroidvania RPG in a debatable match on GameFAQs, which seems better?