Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1325

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Have we ever had a game release early in the year that did poorly in the GotY polls but would have done well if it was released later in the year? I've never really been sold on the idea that being released early in the year was a disadvantage.

Have we ever had any actual way to test this theory? For example, I suspect God of War would have gone 50-50 with Smash Ultimate if they were both released around the same time last year, but I have no idea how we'd determine the truth either way.

Advokaiser posted...

I disagree. I'd say the weakest years this decade in terms of strength were 2012, 2014, 2016, and maybe 2018. This was a fairly solid year from what I've seen.

From a GameFAQs perspective, this year has been pitiful near the top, and the rest hardly matters on a site that only plays a few new games per year, at most.

With another year completed, I can provide an update on the status of our vote totals.



This was our first year since 2009 where our vote totals dropped by less than 10% compared to the previous year. Before 2019, we had 9 straight years of vote totals dropping by more than 15% compared to the previous year, which I thought was probably unsustainable and would eventually level out at some point. We are not at the point where I can safely say for certain that vote totals have finally stabilized. I need to see at least 2 full years of fairly stable vote totals before I can make that call.

The wiki page on this subject has also been updated as well:

https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Site_Traffic

I think it would be difficult to test. But at the same time if there's no evidence, the original theory is pretty much just a blind guess.

I think the original idea that being released early in the year was a disadvantage because most winners came out later in the year. However, I think that's just a product of how GotY candidates tends to be released closer to the end of the year.

Yeah, we've seen plenty of early year releases win and dominate GotY, most recently Breath of the Wild.

Did I seriously see someone suggest any GTA could beat Link's Awakening 2019 on this site?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4150-south-division-round-2-golden-sun-vs-gta-san-andreas

Like full stop bro. That's just crazy town.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Did I seriously see someone suggest any GTA could beat Link's Awakening 2019 on this site?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4150-south-division-round-2-golden-sun-vs-gta-san-andreas

Like full stop bro. That's just crazy town.

Totally different case. Golden Sun > San Andreas was pretty much a Charizard > Bowser case, where the new game in the series came out exactly the same day as the match in question.

Yeah, San Andreas is the strongest game in the series, but in a modern scenario I find it really difficult to believe Link's Awakening (2019) is anywhere near the level of Super Mario RPG.

San Andreas isn't the strongest game in the series for "reasons" and it wouldn't beat any game people actually care about

Advokaiser posted...

Totally different case. Golden Sun > San Andreas was pretty much a Charizard > Bowser case, where the new game in the series came out exactly the same day as the match in question.

Yeah, San Andreas is the strongest game in the series, but in a modern scenario I find it really difficult to believe Link's Awakening (2019) is anywhere near the level of Super Mario RPG.

Golden Sun wins that poll on any day you run it. This site does not care one iota about Grand Theft Auto.

LOL at Kingdom Hearts 3 being omitted from GOTY poll. I mean it wouldn’t beat RE2 but it would be 2nd comfortably.

outer wilds on a ps4 list despite being a free Xbox game.

whoever made this poll is just a robot looking at metacritic.

put games in that are actual ps4 exclusives like Judgement and days gone alongside popular games where the fanbase is relevant like kingdom hearts 3.

MetalmindStats posted...

Have we ever had any actual way to test this theory? For example, I suspect God of War would have gone 50-50 with Smash Ultimate if they were both released around the same time last year, but I have no idea how we'd determine the truth either way.

From a GameFAQs perspective, this year has been pitiful near the top, and the rest hardly matters on a site that only plays a few new games per year, at most.

2019 is definitely stronger than 2016. RE2 would easily beat FFXV

Leonhart4 posted...

San Andreas isn't the strongest game in the series for "reasons" and it wouldn't beat any game people actually care about

... "reasons".

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super

That's not a bad result for GTA5 even if it doesn't live up to the tens of millions of copies it sold.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super

That's not a bad result for GTA5 even if it doesn't live up to the tens of millions of copies it sold.

And this is why Link’s Awakening (which could very possibly beat SMRPG in a poll) doesn’t need to be anywhere close to SMRPG to beat any GTA game out there. 57% is a really good number.

Zelda remakes tend to be a lot more mortal than their original versions:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4585-best-of-2011-best-portable-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

I would give the original LA a shot at SMRPG but not the 2019 version.

That's not a contest setting bro. My whole point is if you put LA 2019 in a contest, it would be a proxy for the original and have absurd strength in a field it shouldn't even be allowed in in the first place.

It's possible. If I had to guess, I would guess it wouldn't. But, I don't think we really have any evidence either way regarding if a remake will proxy for the original in a contest.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, we've seen plenty of early year releases win and dominate GotY, most recently Breath of the Wild.

I just feel like there's a difference in stickiness, for lack of a better term, between games like BotW/Witcher 3 and RE2. Yes, people liked it quite a bit when they played it, but are enough of them really going to remember it almost a year later? That wasn't a problem for the first two, which were obviously the most beloved and remembered games of their respective years. RE2 is no obvious #1, and already has its remake status and it simply not being the type of game GameFAQs is predisposed to working against it. Not to mention the last time GotY was between an early-year release somewhat outside of GameFAQs' wheelhouse and a later-half game firmly inside it, the latter won.

Maybe I should rephrase my point, since phrasing it as an inherent disadvantage isn't necessarily accurate: I feel like early-year releases need to be better-received than late-year releases to be equally well-remembered, which isn't the case with RE2 versus Three Houses.

Friendly reminder that Three Houses came out in July

That's still 6 months after RE2's release, and thus much closer to the end of the year.

Three Houses doesn't benefit from recency bias at this point which was the point of saying being released early in the year hurts

Leonhart4 posted...

Three Houses doesn't benefit from recency bias at this point which was the point of saying being released early in the year hurts

Relative to RE2, it is.

It's not relative to RE2. It's relative to GOTY. If Three Houses wins, it won't be because of release dates.

UltimaterializerX posted...

That's not a contest setting bro. My whole point is if you put LA 2019 in a contest, it would be a proxy for the original and have absurd strength in a field it shouldn't even be allowed in in the first place.

id say it wouldn’t get the same strength as original.

like if you put the original LA against BOTW it does a respectable number. If you put remake it gets obliterated.

We should see in just a few minutes whether or not Link's Awakening will be more along the lines of what RE2 is doing today or if the game will be significantly weaker than the original.

Switch poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7830-

Three Houses off to a good start

Seems like the answer for Link's Awakening is "significantly weaker than the original". Three Houses would have already gotten trashed pretty badly by the original Link's Awakening, so the remake is another step down from whatever strength Three Houses would have in a contest.

LusterSoldier posted...

We should see in just a few minutes whether or not Link's Awakening will be more along the lines of what RE2 is doing today or if the game will be significantly weaker than the original.

im amazed LA remake is doing well at all. It’s a remake. OoZt 3d didn’t have Oot strength did it.

then again the switch lineup this year is weak as hell.

also how bad are sword and shield. Jesus.

LusterSoldier posted...

Seems like the answer for Link's Awakening is "significantly weaker than the original". Three Houses would have already gotten trashed pretty badly by the original Link's Awakening, so the remake is another step down from whatever strength Three Houses would have in a contest.

well yeah there’s nostalgia to LA.

and I think RE2 is safe for easy GOTY win here. I wa expecting Pokemon to win switch poll and maybe the fanboys would blindly vote for it. But that was 3 months ago. People hate that game it seems.

Also is the weakest lineup of Nintendo games ever in a GOTY poll for gamefaqs? Can’t recall another year where Nintendo had this many weak games.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Also is the weakest lineup of Nintendo games ever in a GOTY poll for gamefaqs? Can’t recall another year where Nintendo had this many weak games.

It's far from being the weakest line-up of Nintendo games in any GotY poll. Not when the Wii U exists. These would all be weaker line-ups of Nintendo games:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6567-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6198-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5377-

LusterSoldier posted...

It's far from being the weakest line-up of Nintendo games in any GotY poll. Not when the Wii U exists. These would all be weaker line-ups of Nintendo games:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6567-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6198-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5377-

but that’s one system. They had 3ds that year.

im talking Nintendo games in general across all systems.

mans Zelda TP is stronger than any of these games I bet.

Awakening was above the fodder-line and just slightly weaker than the original Xenoblade as of 2015 (both narrowly lost to DKC2), and there's a decent chance Three Houses is stronger than Awakening. So yeah, I don't think this is too bad for a 2010s game.

Xenoblade X beat MM3DS in 2015. Xenoblade X is gonna be a step down from Xenoblade so Three Houses probably beats anything from Nintendo 2015.

And of course Twilight Princess is stronger than these games. It's like a top 20 game. The number of 2010s games that would beat it could probably be counted on one hand.

Twilight Princess HD is another matter though!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6574-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year

AxemRedRanger posted...

Awakening was above the fodder-line and just slightly weaker than the original Xenoblade as of 2015 (both narrowly lost to DKC2), and there's a decent chance Three Houses is stronger than Awakening. So yeah, I don't think this is too bad for a 2010s game.

Xenoblade X beat MM3DS in 2015. Xenoblade X is gonna be a step down from Xenoblade so Three Houses probably beats anything from Nintendo 2015.

And of course Twilight Princess is stronger than these games. It's like a top 20 game. The number of 2010s games that would beat it could probably be counted on one hand.

Twilight Princess HD is another matter though!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6574-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year

I
yeah ok point proven. 2016 is much worse

holy hell FFXV won in 2016? How bad was that year lol

Regarding Metacritic on the platforms Outer Wilds has a huge majority of its reviews on it has an 85 so above KH3. But more than that it and Control are getting lots of awards while Kingdom Hearts is getting nowt. I was very glad to see it there and not come last! I hope it wins the indie poll though I have a feeling Disco Elysium will top it. KH3 may have come third or even second on brand recognition, but honestly I'd rather celebrate lesser known quality games.

Also I don't think this is a weak year for the Switch at all I just don't think it has a massive standout. Every one of these seems of reasonable strength. And I would say the same of the year 2016 too.

MK11 this time and still no KH3

Xbox One poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7831-

At least Mortal Kombat 11 made it into a poll, but the lack of KH3 sucks because it might have decent strength for this year (along with appealing to the GameFAQs audience).

RE2 made it into another poll again, so KH3 would have had a difficult time winning this poll even if it had been included here.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Regarding Metacritic on the platforms Outer Wilds has a huge majority of its reviews on it has an 85 so above KH3. But more than that it and Control are getting lots of awards while Kingdom Hearts is getting nowt. I was very glad to see it there and not come last! I hope it wins the indie poll though I have a feeling Disco Elysium will top it. KH3 may have come third or even second on brand recognition, but honestly I'd rather celebrate lesser known quality games.

Also I don't think this is a weak year for the Switch at all I just don't think it has a massive standout. Every one of these seems of reasonable strength. And I would say the same of the year 2016 too.

I don’t disagree Kh3 is a mediocre dissapointment of a game but surely it’s high profile enough to include. And have a seperate indie category.

Control is a much better game than KH3. But in the context of a gfaqs GOTY poll KH is just more relevant on this site and would get a ton more votes.

LusterSoldier posted...

Xbox One poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7831-

At least Mortal Kombat 11 made it into a poll, but the lack of KH3 sucks because it might have decent strength for this year (along with appealing to the GameFAQs audience).

RE2 made it into another poll again, so KH3 would have had a difficult time winning this poll even if it had been included here.

utterly stupid to include the same games really. Just have a multiplat category and exclusives. Granted Xbox exclusives wouldn’t add up to anything and you’d end up with s*** like crackdown in the poll but what are they going to do? Include RE2 in the PC poll too?

I don't think KH3 really fits on any of the remaining categories. So unless something new shows up, KH3 looks like it got snubbed. I guess that is one disadvantage of having an early year release. It doesn't matter if you retain your strength or not if you don't show up on the polls.

but yeah even if KH3 would have utterly flopped (and it's highly likely it would have) it still should have been represented so we could see it for ourselves

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7550-with-three-months-gone-what-is-your-pick-for-the-best-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7643-halfway-through-2019-what-is-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year

That first result is more than good enough to deserve a shot at the GotY polls. I guess getting snubbed from the mid year poll was a sign.

It's not worth much but Three Houses did better on Mario Maker 2 in the GotY poll than RE2 did in the mid-year poll.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7550-with-three-months-gone-what-is-your-pick-for-the-best-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7643-halfway-through-2019-what-is-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year

That first result is more than good enough to deserve a shot at the GotY polls. I guess getting snubbed from the mid year poll was a sign.

It's not worth much but Three Houses did better on Mario Maker 2 in the GotY poll than RE2 did in the mid-year poll.

that was when MM2 was arguably at its peak. People dropped off that game hard. Look at Luigi. I feel like if this poll was done back in November Luigi would have easily beaten Pokemon.

Didn't have any free time yesterday, so catching up:

-The thing with remakes' strength mostly relies on how much they add to the original experience. Like, let's not forget that TP HD and WW HD are not remakes, but remasters, and those barely change anything at all. They are basically ports and have no relevance whatsoever. Link's Awakening and RE2 are clearly a fairly different experience that make the game stand on its own.

-People are underestimating how incredibly hated Sword/Shield were before release.

-Maybe Allen excluded KH3 after FFXV's fiasco? Or because he wanted to put lesser-known games in the spotlight? I don't know... Actually, I'd really like to see a match-up between those too. Who ya got?

-I don't really believe in recency bias unless it comes from a hyped game. Same for games that came out early in the year – they can be sleeper hits and become strong over time. If a game is a hit, it will stay in people's minds. Just look at Sekiro: It was talked about a month or two after it came out and then it seemed to disappear, yet it has been performing very decently in this year's polls.

Regarding LA's remake strength...

Advokaiser posted...

BotW vs. LA (2019):

Sounds about right.

What fiasco with FFXV? It won GOTY!

That's a fiasco alright - weakest GOTY of the decade in strength, quality and general reception enabled pretty much because 2016 lacked big RPGs and Action Adventure games. To be really brutal about it it pretty much won through genre bias.

Anyway I do agree KH3 should have been in the PS4 poll specifically at the expense of CTR. It's a remaster, no need to have it. But I'm fine to drop a game that would probably come third (maybe even fourth behind Outer Worlds) for better games, yeah. There is merit in curating the options to cull lower quality games with more name recognition. I just don't think the CTR is the game to replace it and KH3 did still get good enough reviews so it had a fair reason to be there.

Also honestly Allen should have removed RE2 or just not done separate PS4 or Xbox polls, the only (timed) exclusive in either is Death Stranding.

Lightning Strikes posted...

To be really brutal about it it pretty much won through genre bias.

I mean, yeah

Pokemon Sun/Moon was the runner-up after all

Absolutely. Though at least 2016 was a big year for Pokémon.

I was curious so I had a look and the only games to reach top 3 in the past decade that aren't RPGs or third-person action adventures (most of which are basically RPGs) are Smash Bros Ultimate, Super Smash Bros. 4, Cuphead (by virtue of stronger exclusives knocking each other out) Bayonetta 2, Borderlands 2 (which is RPGish) and Super Mario Galaxy 2.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Anyway I do agree KH3 should have been in the PS4 poll specifically at the expense of CTR. It's a remaster, no need to have it.

As we've had for the last 3 years of GotY polls, there should be a Remasters/Remakes poll this year, so CTR didn't really have a need to be in the PS4 poll when it could have been held back for the Remasters/Remakes poll.