Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1324 - CBX Winners Announced GameFAQs Contests

(continued from the following post - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77383901/921659436)

"At work" has the most extreme trends in this poll. The board vote is pathetically bad (under 1%) while the Power Hour was still very terrible (under 3%) and yet this didn't stop "At work" from ultimately reaching a maximum percentage of 16.48% in this poll. The night vote was a major step up from its terrible Power Hour, but even the night vote was still below average. The strongest time period was the morning vote, but this was followed up with an ASV collapse that is still roughly equal to its night vote. The SNV is even worse than the ASV, but still slightly better than what it was getting during the Power Hour.

"At work" had its lowest percentage of 0.54% at 12:05 AM. After that point, it gained a total of 15.94% to reach a maximum of 16.48% at 4:45 PM. Then it lost a total of 2.04% to finish with 14.44%. The trends that we saw from "At work" supports the theory of an After Work Vote (AWV). Beginning around 5:30 PM, "At work" began losing percentage at a much faster rate than usual and this drop off is directly correlated to "Home office / computer room" and "Living / family / game room" gaining percentage during the AWV period. As voters started coming home from work, there were far less people still at work to vote for "At work" in the poll, which explains the AWV collapse here.

"Public place" has a terrible board vote and Power Hour. The night vote and early morning vote were both below average. It performs best during the late morning vote and ASV, but drops off hard during the SNV.

"Other" has a bad board vote and Power Hour. For the rest of the poll after the Power Hour, it stays fairly consistent overall.

New FFVIIR trailer has shown up. Apparently people are pretty excited about it.

Cloud's chances to break 45% on Link look nice!

Now that our minds have been cleared of CBX, I would now like to ask:

Luigi vs. Bowser: who wins today?

Weegi time

Bowser easy.

Ulti wins since he gets to brag about Bowser winning for days

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Ulti wins since he gets to brag about Bowser winning for days

LOL days

He didn't stop bragging about Mario/Samus for 14 years

Minecraft playrate poll?

FF 7 remake hype!

I'd take Weegi, as well. Bowser's 51% on Alucard is... not that great. With that in mind, Luigi > Bowser = Yoshi makes far more sense to me than Luigi = Bowser > Yoshi.

Bump

I'd take Bowser, because I think Bowser and Luigi are pretty much equal to each other, but people that aren't that crazy over Nintendo/Mario would probably favor Bowser, and that's all he would need.

I like the 6th option for today's PotD >_>

We now have a game today with a playrate almost as high as SMB1.

Could Pinball or Minesweeper dethrone it?

I don't think anything would surpass Solitaire as far as default PC software. Minesweeper might come close to equaling it, but I don't think it would beat it.

Solitaire vs. Minesweeper: who wins in a contest match?!

Oh, and it just occurred to me why Terra was stronger than Kefka last contest -- because she's a hot video game female who has strengthened, just like Peach, Tifa, Aerith, and Chun-Li. Duh! Why didn't I think of that until now? But the question is... is Terra capable of beating Kefka in a direct match?

I was looking at my CBX x-stats again for the first time in a few months, and I found made two assumptions: one, Samus overperformed on Snake, and two, Sephiroth weakened when he entered the Legends bracket. But then I thought of possibly a simpler assumption to make: What if Tifa changed between the regular and legends brackets, rather than either Samus/Tifa being a fluke or Zelda strengthening sometime during the legends matches?

I crunched the numbers, and if we say that Tifa strengthened, Samus vs. Snake and Samus vs. Tifa falls into place pretty well. So does Tifa vs. Sephiroth and the x-stats in Sephiroth's division. Furthermore, this gives the Mario/Samus match plenty of room for expected rSFF. I know that KKP maintains that Zelda strengthened sometime between defeating Snake and losing to Cloud, but with the Tifa adjustment in mind, that could be evidence that Zelda may have been consistent. I'd post the latest x-stats, but I don't have time to get new ones out right now... maybe tomorrow or the next day. Edit: This theory doesn't work well with the Mario/Sephiroth match. Screw it all!

Solitare would win - everyone loves the bouncing cards when you win.

https://i.imgtc.ws/RiknZmd.png

what an upset

Upsetting in more ways than one

Hmmm... I'll set the idea of Tifa boosting in the legends bracket to the side. There's not enough data to have a good analysis on it, though it is compelling because it better explains why Tifa beating Sephiroth and I don't have to assume Samus overperformed on Snake. Plus, it would mean Mario rSFFed Samus, which might make sense. But there's a huge amount of data it affects, though it kind of fits KKP's theory that Sephiroth really does suck hard and that he overperformed on Ryu. Ammy, Captain Falcon, and Wesker all seem a little low, but then again, these x-stats are not connected to Tifa at all.

It still bothers me, though.... Mario got 59% on Sephy. Cloud got 60% on Alucard. (Cloud narrowly beat Mario, as a reminder) It's hard for me to wrap my head around these two results. Sephiroth being on BOWSER's level when the other FF7 characters did so well is just.... crazy. Putting Sephiroth vs. Ryu aside, Sephiroth got 61% on Ammy, 65% on Captain Falcon, and 70% on Wesker. Could Bowser pull that off? Maybe he could get close... perhaps Ammy could be on par with Ness. But Captain Falcon has been at least on Ness's level from 2008 and on.... Wesker could be that weak, I guess.

Hmmmm...ahhh, maybe Mario got a bit of a boost from Oddysey in his first match, but the excitement wore off afterwards! Maybe Mario overperformed by 2-3% on Sephiroth? That's my best guess at this point. I think this makes more sense than Sephiroth weakening in the Legends bracket.

Hmmmmmm....if we extrapolate Sephiroth from Sephiroth/Tifa, Mario gets about 55.5% on Sephiroth. Adjusting Sephiroth accordingly allows for more reasonable measurements to Ammy/Falcon/Wesker. Interesting. Maybe I should stick with the original Legends Tifa adjustment.... perhaps I'll post some of the new x-stats in a couple days.

I'm of the opinion that the Legends bracket artificially boosted all the characters who weren't Legends in it a bit. At least in theory, it makes sense, since the bracket separation and Legends labeling could have led to the non-Legends being viewed as underdogs, and some people hoping for these champs to be upset supporting them.

Also, Mario overperforming on Sephiroth makes zero sense considering Sephy was Mario's kryptonite every time the two previously met, and Odyssey was already a year old by the time of Mario's first match. It makes more sense to me to call Tifa as the overperformer of the bunch - especially since Tifa could have rSFF'd her way to a win against Sephiroth even if her strength was otherwise the same as before the Legends bracket.

So did Tifa catch a bandwagon?

Pretty sure Cloud was rallied against Mario.

Where's the option for polls as part of GameFAQs Contests?

Well, last contest we had the matches and the polls of the day separately.

Oddysey was a year old by then? I thought it was released October 2018, not October 2017. Whoops! In that case, Mario overperforming wouldn't make much sense then. I guess Sephiroth just weakened in the Legends bracket then. But yeah, some of the main bracket winners definitely could have boosted. Tifa may have boosted, and likewise Pikachu and, most likely of all, Zelda. Maybe Auron, given his iffy performances on Vincent and Geralt. Alucard and Bowser seemed pretty normal. Ganondorf was weaker, if anything, though of course the pic was to blame.

Favorite console Zelda poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-

Advokaiser posted...

Well, last contest we had the matches and the polls of the day separately.

And that's probably going to be a thing going forward in future contests. There's only a slight vote total penalty for regular polls that happen during a contest, due to the regular poll being pushed slightly farther down on the page because of the contest voting form.

God damn. I know people didn’t like skyward sword as much but fewer votes than AoL?

That makes for an interesting poll

Which is your fav Zelda?

adventure of link
Four swords adventures
Phantom hourglass
Spirit tracks
Skyward sword
Hyrule warriors

I put in HW for a laugh. Wouldn’t be surprised to see HW get more votes than SS.

Utterly embarrassing for a mainline console Zelda.

What I’ve seen from this poll is how strong OoT really is with nearly 3-4 major Zelda games in WW,MM,TP and BOTW all leeching from it and it’s still putting up ridiculous numbers.

WW is not the joke it was 10 years ago.

BOTW still legit GOTD. Can’t see smash beating it.

Wind Waker wasn't a joke 10 years ago either. It just got stuck in a fourpack with its absolute worst non-Zelda opponent in Melee. It did well for itself the next year in GOTD.

Also, Breath of the Wild is actually doing better now than it did when this poll was held shortly after its release (mostly at MM's and WW's expense), which is a good sign for its long-term strength.

LeonhartFour posted...

Also, Breath of the Wild is actually doing better now than it did when this poll was held shortly after its release (mostly at MM's and WW's expense), which is a good sign for its long-term strength.

Yeah I agree. Which is why for me as of right now it’s #1 for GOTD. Smash is clearly #2. But smash’s popularity will wane as time goes on and BOTW won’t. Plus 1v1 Zelda just beats out nintendo comp.

And I agree with WW to an extent but I think the HD rerelease gave it more of a boost. WW is a lot stronger now than it was before while games like TP are weaker.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Plus 1v1 Zelda just beats out nintendo comp.

Well, not always. Brawl did beat TP in GOTD, but I would favor BOTW now. I think it's generally more beloved, and I think Smash overall isn't as popular as it was back then (largely due to the immense hype train Brawl generated).

LeonhartFour posted...

Also, Breath of the Wild is actually doing better now than it did when this poll was held shortly after its release (mostly at MM's and WW's expense), which is a good sign for its long-term strength.

At least it seems to prove that it didn't overperform in 2017 when it was less than 3 months due to being the newest game at the time. If anything, it's actually gotten stronger because the playrate would be higher now.

Favorite Konami game series poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7611-

Ya go my Castlevania.

A little surprised to see Suikoden beating Silent Hill, though.

Advokaiser posted...

Ya go my Castlevania.

A little surprised to see Suikoden beating Silent Hill, though.

Hardly a surprise on GameFAQs.

I'd be more surprised that Yugioh is beating Silent Hill

Then00bAvenger posted...

I'd be more surprised that Yugioh is beating Silent Hill

Oh wow, I didn't see that one!

Metal Gear actually lost to Castlevania in yesterday's poll. Hard to say how much of it was Castlevania actually getting stronger since 2003 and how much of it was Metal Gear simply dropping off.

In the 2003 version of this poll, Metal Gear won pretty easily over Castlevania and that was before MGS3 came out.

Metal Gear is dead and Castlevania has the Netflix boost. That kind of combination of circumstances is what was necessary to make such a drastic change in GameFAQs hierarchy.

Makes me wonder how close Alucard could get to Snake these days. (If only the xstats website had data from recent contests!)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7360-finals-bracket-round-1-cloud-vs-alucard

Probably somewhere in the low-to-mid 40s.

Symphony of the Night looked like it was close in strength to MGS1 in 2015. And while MGS2 through 4 (and probably even 5) all obliterate every other game in the Castlevania series, Castlevania's generally just a larger, more diverse franchise.

Yeah, I'd wager a lot of that is just the deadness of MGS as a whole, and the fact that there hasn't been a a really well liked one in over a decade now.

Facebook poll: Who would be your best guide? Navi vs. Aku Aku.

https://imgur.com/7f16idV

Currently Aku Aku at 62%. 3500 votes cast.

Advokaiser posted...

Facebook poll: Who would be your best guide? Navi vs. Aku Aku.

https://imgur.com/7f16idV

Currently Aku Aku at 62%. 3500 votes cast.

Aku Aku is a legend

Playrate poll for EarthBound:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7617-

I'm rather surprised that Microsoft Flight Simulator is doing much better in today's poll than I originally expected.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7623-

Microsoft Flight Simulator seems like a game that should finish in last place, but it's currently ahead of 5 other games right now.

Yesterday, we got a poll related to Microsoft's press conference shortly after the press conference ended. The poll started at 5:45 PM EST and ran for only 6 hours, 15 minutes. It's one of the shortest running polls during the entire history of the PotD. The only other poll that could have ran for less than 6 hours is the following poll - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2603-

Based on the high vote totals of the other polls around that time, it's quite reasonable to assume the above poll could have pulled off around 16000 votes in less than 6 hours (probably even less than 5 hours).

Did you see how beautiful Microsoft Flight Simulator is? That's worth 6%.

This is a very interesting poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7630-

A "favorite video game father" poll.

no big boss huh

Barret > Jecht, I can live with that.