Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322 GameFAQs Contests
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xp1337 posted...
Is it possible this match result is so out of whack because of bracket voting, Maybe it was a lot more comforting to people to see Samus obviously going to lose to Mario the next round then risk a Snake/Mario clash. I have no signature |
It’s
a shame Mario couldn’t manage to pull it off against Cloud! I wouldn’t
have expected Cloud to pull that one off, though I guess after that
narrow win against Samus he had some sort of rally going against him,
haha. Total redemption after the 2013 contest against Vivi, tho! |
Zelda
way overperformed on Samus in that match. The strength gap between them
before Zelda boosted this year was probably somewhere between the 2006
match and the 2010 match where Samus broke 63%. |
ALAKA posted... xp1337 posted... Not really. If you extrapolate through Tifa like I mentioned, you ultimately end up with Samus being expected to get approximately 51% against Snake. ...Instead she ended up with 56.5%. It's just not realistic that bracket voting or strategic voting could account for that IMO. I'd be more willing to chalk up the Samus/Snake match as an outlier if you truly wanted to just explain it away. I'd be willing to believe a slight Zelda bandwagon coupled with a Samus overperformance/Snake underperformance in that match I think. Though KP is much more aware of the problems this would cause in Zelda's division so perhaps this doesn't check out as well as I might hope. xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
As
far as "problems" inside divisions go, that doesn't seem like a good
reason to adjust things. It's been 5 years since our last character
battle and we have way fewer voters now, we should expect there to be a
lot of change. The Legends and Losers brackets all seem pretty
consistent, with the Samus/Snake match standing out as wonky. But it
wouldn't seem half as strange as the Mario/Samus matches if we hadn't
discussed Mario/Samus endlessly for the past 13 years and have a lot of
theories about what's happening in Mario/Samus now. My suggestion: give Snake the average of his results through Zelda and Samus, and extrapolate Samus through Tifa. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
garetha200 posted... Zelda way overperformed on Samus in that match. The strength gap between them before Zelda boosted this year was probably somewhere between the 2006 match and the 2010 match where Samus broke 63%. Well Zelda overperformed in 2006 period, including her match with Aeris. I'm not even sure whether she'll beat Aeris in 2010 considering how bad she looked all contest and they finished almost right next to each other in the x-stats. congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
For
what it's worth, this is the first time Sheik has ever been the main
focus in a Zelda-match (though it is rotating). This is also the first
time Sheik has been used at all for Zelda since CJayC's era, when she
was a background character in two pictures against Samus in 2006: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb561-1.jpg http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb561-3.jpg I don't know if it's "sabotage" but it's weird and offputting. Sheik would be super-strong, no question, but also I don't vote for Sheik like I do Zelda because Sheik is a f***ing Smash beast while Zelda's like okay to play as in Smash. There's a cognative dissonance to see my all-time favorite fighting game character represent a princess I don't care so much about. I'd vote for Sheik in every match Zelda had this contest, whereas I don't think I've voted for Zelda since she faced Aerith. So, I guess for a similar comparison: does putting Nightmare in a Siegfried-match make Siegfried stronger or weaker? I recognize their shared LoZ:OoT history, but it doesn't feel natural in a way I think is different from the likes of sharing pics between Samus and Zero Suit Samus, Mario and Dr. Mario, etc. I dunno, just saying Sheik > Cloud > Zelda for me but I don't consider this a match for Sheik. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq (edited 12/12/2018 9:38:08 PM) |
What
if Samus/Snake was accurate, though, and that Samus/Tifa was the match
that was off (as in, Tifa overperformed)? I know that makes Samus
ridiculously strong, but I'm just throwing that possibility out there!
Isn't it funny how the only two opponents we have to measure Samus are
opponents where Samus previously had debatably wonky match results with?
In 2005 Tifa overperformed on Samus (and possibly 2013, too) and
people still debate on whether Samus/Snake 2006 wasn't accurate,
either.... That's why we need to see Samus vs. Cloud! So the idea is that Zelda was fairly consistent all the way through Zelda vs. Sonic. And then Zelda increased in bandwagon strength through Mario/Zelda and Link/Zelda and now we have a stronger Zelda against Cloud. It actually sounds pretty logical. I don't think I would change KKP's placement of Zelda and Snake. Still, I wonder if Sonic really is weaker than Luigi.... granted, I like how Tifa and MMX are given some credit for their strength. And Luigi is placed above Bowser and Yoshi, which I think is correct. Sephiroth's performance were really inconsistent. His matches against Captain Falcon and Ryu suggest the stronger Sephiroth, but his performances on Mario, Amaterasu and Wesker suggest the weaker Sephiroth. What's funny, though, is that even the weaker Sephiroth that KKP uses is still above Sonic. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
xp1337 posted... I'd be willing to believe a slight Zelda bandwagon coupled with a Samus overperformance/Snake underperformance in that match I think. For the record, the stats did end up with Snake looking like he underperformed a little. Match is closer to 55-45 than we we got. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Haste_2 posted... Still, I wonder if Sonic really is weaker than Luigi.... Sonic is probably underrated in the stats simply because it would be kind of nuts to see him decline so much, but he did bad in every match so there's not much I can do for him. Sephiroth's performance were really inconsistent. His matches against Captain Falcon and Ryu suggest the stronger Sephiroth, but his performances on Mario, Amaterasu and Wesker suggest the weaker Sephiroth. Sephiroth was the most inconsistent character in the main bracket. He simultaneously made different parts of his division look amazing and terrible. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/12/2018 9:43:37 PM) |
Kinda
weird he underperformed on Mario but overperformed on Falcon? Seems
kind of weird given those are both smash characters. Obviously Mario has
his own very popular series, but that's never been a significant issue
for Seph before. Wacky stuff. |
Mario surpassed the 300-vote barrier on Cloud. I don't think Zelda's going to be able to match that tonight. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
From this point until the end yesterday, Cloud rose 1.26% Mario's lead at this point was 296 votes. Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Worth
pointing out Zelda rose 0.6% against Mario from this point to the end
of the poll which would suggest Cloud will have a harder job
chasing/gaining today than yesterday, all things being equal. We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
ShatteredElysium posted... Ok so with Zelda pulling ahead it looks like I might maintain 3rd depending on how many have her winnings the losers final (I feel that can't be many). And I can always hope that the 2 people above me might not be prize brackets. Do you have a different name on the leaderboard? PLAYSTATION 4: Best Console Ever | ROCKSTAR: Best Developer Ever Trolling (v.): Posting an opinion that differs from yours |
INTERWEBUSER posted... ShatteredElysium posted...Ok so with Zelda pulling ahead it looks like I might maintain 3rd depending on how many have her winnings the losers final (I feel that can't be many). And I can always hope that the 2 people above me might not be prize brackets. Yes. Lukejalil. I was leading until Mario lost, had Mario in my bracket. Have nothing today so kind hoping for the lowest percentage winner. A Cloud win probably drops me a decent chunk. A zelda win will drop me hardly nothing, maybe not even at all (edited 12/12/2018 11:56:22 PM) |
Cloud
was doing better in both NA and Europe than he is thus-far. I'm liking
Zelda's chances but we'll see. FFVII has been CLUTCH this contest. "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
Yesterday Mario stopped the bleeding right around 6am EST. Lets see if the same happens today. |
Hahaha Zelda Lose already you worthless s*** wololo |
Nanis23 posted... Hahaha Zelda Don't worry either way, we get a loser that will lose again ! |
*checks the poll for the first time in a while* OH NO If I only consulted the Gossip Stones like BKSheikah, instead of listening to Tingle, maybe I could have been the 2017 Guru Champ! |
hylianknight3 posted... *checks the poll for the first time in a while* |
Link versus Cloud posted... Doesn't seem like it. Samus could conceivably avoid SFF and break 40% in a final, due to anti-votes/bandwagon. She’d be a clear favorite over Cloud. Surprised to see people saying Cloud would win or its a toss up. Samus’ performance on Snake May have been wonky, but she should still be able to outdo Cloud on Snake. I’d say Snake/Cloud is very hard to call. (edited 12/13/2018 4:04:50 AM) |
Imagine having a lead change nobody us talking about wololo |
UltimaterializerX posted... KamikazePotato posted...Samus has proven herself to be stronger than Mario in every match that doesn't involve facing Mario and dealing with the hierarchy. That 57% on Snake is better than anything Mario could hope to accomplish. Indirectly? Hell, she was stronger than Mario *directly* their last match if you don’t count double votes (who knows if we get those next time). Unless her next game is horrid and hurts her somehow, I’d say she’d be the 1v1 favorite vs. Mario. Their history should also play in her favor, making her more sympathetic. I think if we had a Linkless bracket, people would think Samus “deserved” to win. |
Nanis23 posted... Imagine having a lead change nobody us talking about Link: (yawning) So Zelda, you're finally back for the "final battle" Cloud: Actually sir, my name is Clo... Link: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR NAME IS!!! It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest |
Go my Cloud ~Phoenix Nine~ ~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~ |
Even
though Mario winning twice would have been amazing and would've made me
finish on the leaderboard, man does it feel great to see Cloud work his
way to the finals. In a contest where everyone took almost every chance
to laugh at Final Fantasy, Cloud is making his way to be number #2 even
today. Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
Not surprised by Cloud pulling it off after Tifa beat Luigi. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Cloud deserves some music. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8EmsS36yXTs ~Phoenix Nine~ ~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~ |
The_Ctes posted... Even though Mario winning twice would have been amazing and would've made me finish on the leaderboard, man does it feel great to see Cloud work his way to the finals. In a contest where everyone took almost every chance to laugh at Final Fantasy, Cloud is making his way to be number #2 even today. It sort of brings some credibility back to this site. I like Nintendo but the f***ing drone mentality and new generation switch fanboys annoy the hell out of me. Link is clearly number 1 and I accept that but Link/cloud finals area tradition. It’s nice to see some things remain the same. |
At
this point, Mario still had a lead of over 100 votes. Rallies are
always possible, but Cloud looks in good position at the moment. Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Yeah, and I don't think there's the same push for Zelda now as was in her first run. Cloud probably has this. Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. (edited 12/13/2018 5:08:08 AM) |
If Cloud beats Zelda, would he be the hero of the contest (or at least of the Noble Nine)? Zelda hasn't lost a single matchup aside from Link, so I don't know if Cloud putting an end to Zelda's bandwagon would put him in a honorable spot. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Cloud
is the hero. Link is the guy who just goes through the motions while
steamrolling everyone. Mario is the villain. Samus is the tragic
heroine. Zelda is a Mary Sue. ~Phoenix Nine~ ~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~ |
LusterSoldier posted... Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later @LusterSoldier That’s interesting. Does your projection of how many registered voters we would have finished at, take into account that the first half of the match probably has more registered users? I think maybe not many have talked about Cloud rallying, is that the entire notion of FF7 rallying past freakin’ Mario is so absurd that it hasn’t sunk in yet. Though I think a lot of it would be a lack of rallying for Mario, as the people that would normally rally him probably saw him as the villain this time. |
creativename posted... Does your projection of how many registered voters we would have finished at, take into account that the first half of the match probably has more registered users? Of course it does. I've done some hourly registered voting trend charts for select matches this contest and looked up the trend chart that looks most similar at the 12 hour point in comparison to the hourly chart I did for Cloud/Mario. At the 12 hour point, we had 50.50% registered users in this match. The closest comparison was Yoshi/Pikachu with 50.59% registered users at the same point in the match. The trend charts can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868 Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Cloud just demolishing right now. I think Mario was actually gaining at this point yesterday. |
yeah this is over seems Zelda (even this juiced up bandwagoned version) is still weaker than mario indirectly. she relied on a bit of SFF to beat him. |
I don't think it was SFF, I think her bandwagon just slowed once people saw she couldn't beat Link either. Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi |
BTW,
why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly
plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little
more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an
anti-vote magnet. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Zelda busted out her biggest update since 2:40 AM, and all she got out of it was a stall. Ouch. Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Any
bandwagon for Zelda died completely after she got crushed by Link tbh,
this is not a surprising result. If she ever had a bandwagon, there is
no better way to lose that momentum than losing the way she did. Surskit Hi! I like shorts! They're comfy and easy to wear! |
Advokaiser posted... BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet. It's just a part of contest lore. His 2002 match against Cloud involving the Planet Gamecube rally, that led to Crono being a hero who tried to "avenge" Cloud but falling just short. Mario/Crono II (2003) was another big part of the lore. The match started early (CJayC would let matches start early if the previous match was clearly decided back then) and Crono led after 24 hours. However the match continued and Mario took the lead and won in "overtime" as the match ran until midnight. That's what made the Mario/Crono rivalry truly iconic (especially since Mario ended at 50.05% both times) and it also intensified Mario's villain cred. And it's stuck with him ever since. It has nothing to do with how he's portrayed in games or reality. It's all contest lore stuff. I think it was mentioned way back, but it's part of the kayfabe of the contests. xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? (edited 12/13/2018 6:03:21 AM) |
Omniscientless posted... Any bandwagon for Zelda died completely after she got crushed by Link tbh, this is not a surprising result. If she ever had a bandwagon, there is no better way to lose that momentum than losing the way she did. I voted Cloud because she disappointed me wololo |
xp1337 posted... Advokaiser posted...BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet. Ohhh, I see. Thanks. I knew that Mario/Crono was an epic rivalry on this site, but I still have a lot to learn about contests lore, especially involving characters. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Advokaiser posted... BTW, why is Mario perceived as the villain? He's a happy, family-friendly plumber who everyone knows and many people love. Cloud may be a little more suitable of that title due to his personality and being sort of an anti-vote magnet. It's what happens when a bunch of wrestling nerds run the stats topic BKSheikah, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Checking
in on the geolocation map again... yeaaaah this looks a lot like
Mario/Cloud, except Cloud basically being up slightly across the board. xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
Still no votes for D.F. (Mexico City) Do you need to activate an option on the settings for you to be registered under certain country/state? Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Honestly,
it's because people are still angry Mario defeated Crono in 2003.
Outside of beating Samus a couple of days ago Mario has been very
non-controversial for 15 years. CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake |
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