Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320 GameFAQs Contests

creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

creativename posted...

show hidden quote(s)

@red_sox_777

Mario was the underdog against Cloud. Against Crono in 2003, he wasn't the favorite either - both characters had close to 50/50 support. He certainly wasn't anything like Link.

Zelda has never pulled off a single rally except for that Draven match - sure, part of it is that Zelda usually doesn't need rallies - but we saw nothing against Cloud or L-Block or Undertale. Draven provided the sense that an extremely powerful, outside, force was trampling the contest underfoot - and brought out the best in Link.

We’ve had many matches with intense dueling rallies.

As both entrants can’t be the favorites, the idea that favorites can’t rally is clearly false.

And how many times has a perceived favorite won after a rally battle?

I don’t know, must’ve happened at some point.

Depends what your even mean by favorite. Bracket/pre-contest favorite, or day before match favorite? These can be pretty different.

And given the number of very close rally battles we’ve had, the results could have been flipped easily. Just because a rallied favorite barely lost, doesn’t mean they couldn’t have won.

I'm defining favorite as the character that an outsider would perceive as the character that would be naturally more popular on Gamefaqs. I can't think of any cases where there was a strong favorite who won a rally battle.

red sox 777 posted...

I'm defining favorite as the character that an outsider would perceive as the character that would be naturally more popular on Gamefaqs. I can't think of any cases where there was a strong favorite who won a rally battle.

Depends how outsider we're talking here, but given that you called Mario not a favorite against Crono I'd have to say Frog fit the bill in all of his wins.

red sox 777 posted...

creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

show hidden quote(s)

creativename posted...

@red_sox_777

Mario was the underdog against Cloud. Against Crono in 2003, he wasn't the favorite either - both characters had close to 50/50 support. He certainly wasn't anything like Link.

Zelda has never pulled off a single rally except for that Draven match - sure, part of it is that Zelda usually doesn't need rallies - but we saw nothing against Cloud or L-Block or Undertale. Draven provided the sense that an extremely powerful, outside, force was trampling the contest underfoot - and brought out the best in Link.

We’ve had many matches with intense dueling rallies.

As both entrants can’t be the favorites, the idea that favorites can’t rally is clearly false.

And how many times has a perceived favorite won after a rally battle?

I don’t know, must’ve happened at some point.

Depends what your even mean by favorite. Bracket/pre-contest favorite, or day before match favorite? These can be pretty different.

And given the number of very close rally battles we’ve had, the results could have been flipped easily. Just because a rallied favorite barely lost, doesn’t mean they couldn’t have won.

I'm defining favorite as the character that an outsider would perceive as the character that would be naturally more popular on Gamefaqs. I can't think of any cases where there was a strong favorite who won a rally battle.

Why would an outsider think Cloud is stronger on this site than Mario in 2K2?

In any case that definition of favorite is so easily twistable it can’t be used.

Certain rally sources would be a lot more familiar with our community and contests than others.

And Link blows by 60%.

Welp, Zelda is failing at keeping this respectable enough to have a shot in the rematch or even get to the rematch...

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Welp, Zelda is failing at keeping this respectable enough to have a shot in the rematch or even get to the rematch...

Wth are you talking about?

Zelda will be closer now than a rematch.

She’ll doubled in a rematch easily.

If this is somehow Zelda keeping it as "close" as it is right now via rSFF, Cloud has a shot against both Mario and Zelda in the loser bracket. There's a non-zero possibility that Cloud is still #2 after the bomb he put up in 2013. Hilarious.

is Zelda gonna end up doing better or worse than Cloud here?

tgs2 posted...

If this is somehow Zelda keeping it as "close" as it is right now via rSFF, Cloud has a shot against both Mario and Zelda in the loser bracket. There's a non-zero possibility that Cloud is still #2 after the bomb he put up in 2013. Hilarious.

The thought of our #2 not being worth 40% on Link is just pitiful.

Calintares posted...

is Zelda gonna end up doing better or worse than Cloud here?

Much worse. Cloud drained links % throughout the Europe vote. Zelda won’t.

People can come away from real life with different lessons. For me, I've seen people trash my town for millions of dollars of damage over losing a hockey game. If the worst thing people are doing is making angry message board posts over a contest match, that barely registers as a problem to me. In real life, people can be much, much worse than that.

KamikazePotato posted...

Mario>Samus is the most villainous result we've had in like, forever. Samus was reversing a 40-60 loss from 12 years ago, overcoming the Nintendo Hierarchy, overcoming bracket votes, and overcoming the Registered Voter Bonus which I will remind is equivalent to 400+ stuffed votes, overcoming rabid Mario ralliers literally going door-to-door asking people to vote. She came one update away from overcoming all that through raw strength alone. It's like an anime ending except the cheating villain won.

Mario is epic troll villain confirmed.

Story of an underdog hero who keeps besting adversity, only to barely lose to the cackling mafia plumber villain at the end.

Hail the Godplumber.

Calintares posted...

is Zelda gonna end up doing better or worse than Cloud here?

Zelda is already below Cloud's percentage on Link as of the most recent update.

Bandwagon plus SFF just makes a big mess out of the battle. I don't think we'll get much information out of this battle other than reinforcing the LAW.

Once this match is over, I'll try to see what happens to the overall result if the first several hours of votes were removed. That should give us an idea as to what the actual result would have been without the bandwagoned votes getting in the way.

Cloud/Zelda would give us a better idea as to how strong Zelda is compared to Link, but that requires Mario to lose. Even then, the result of Cloud/Zelda would be tainted if Zelda has retained her bandwagon after losing to Link and rallies can also make things more complicated.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Bandwagon plus SFF just makes a big mess out of the battle. I don't think we'll get much information out of this battle other than reinforcing the LAW.

I actually have a feeling that the bandwagon plus SFF actually makes this one of the most accurate direct results we'll ever get from an SFF match.

@paulg235
paulg235 posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Guys I did legitimately go door-to-door at work today and get my friends to vote. Probably got another 50 votes all told.

Watch out, KP will call you out for cheering for your favorite!

Was Metroid ever a thing in Europe btw?

Can't speak for the rest of Europe, but my only exposure to anything Metroid related was Mother Brain in the Captain N show and it took until 2006 for me to discover Samus in the first place. When I first saw her in Super Smash Flash, I legitimately thought she was some sort of Xbox/Halo character.

Granted, I was too young for the SNES era and didn't grow up with the N64 outside of Mario 64, 1080, Banjo and Pokemon Stadium.

How did you watch the Captain N show but were too young for the SNES era...?

Re-runs? But I find it weird that show would be on years later.

trogita posted...

Would Samus be #2 if there was an N64 Metroid game?

If it was a high quality hit game, probably. If it had been a classic, almost certainly.

But a Metroid game for the N64 probably wouldn’t have worked well. It couldn’t be a 2D side scroller, and I don’t think the N64 could have delivered a Prime like game. Didn’t have the graphics most likely.

red sox 777 posted...

Mario colluded with CJayC, who not only did nothing while the poll received on the order of 10,000 "rallied" votes in 2003, but extended the poll by 27 minutes so that Mario could finish. Wasn't Mario caught pushing a male/female poll on male-dominated places around the internet that actually voted in Mario vs. Crono?

That said, Mario does his job as contest villain very very well. That's why we hate him and that's why we love him. Good luck to Samus in round 4.

Oh man, I forgot the male/female poll stuff. Oh the memories and the insecure HTML.

Was that used for just one match? Was it used a few times or did CJayC figure out how to block redirect votes right after?

Do we know for sure it existed and wasn't a rumor? I remember hearing about it on the board but I never got to see the real thing.

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

red sox 777 posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Also, the male/female poll explains how Mario could bring in 10,000 extra votes but only pick up maybe 2,000 votes against Crono. That kind of rallying has a built in backfire rate.

I have no idea what the real code used looked like but there was absolutely no reason not to hook up both options to vote for the same character. That way there's no chance to backfire.

Let's be clear: We're not 100% positive that the random poll actually was hooked back into our contest.

Didn’t it redirect to this site after you filled the form?

After seeing there's no chance of Zelda changing the LAW voters let Mario get past her in the losers final

Mario has no chance either.

I've done some analysis, and the outcome of Cloud vs. Mario tomorrow may depend on the following:

If Samus vs. Snake is accurate, as well as Tifa/Sephiroth, Mario beats Cloud with 53.74%
If Mario vs. Zelda is accurate, Cloud beats Mario with 51.63%

This is assuming Crono 2018 = Crono 2013 and Sub-Zero 2018 = Sub-Zero 2013.

(I wouldn't be surprised if both calculations are bad, though)

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Mario has no chance either.

I know but we knew that pre contest

I feel a lot of Zeldas votes came from people thinking maybe she could get it done/get it close due to a bandwagon

Anyway I've got Cloud > Snake then Mario > Cloud for the final two losers matches. Only one can come off but I hope one does at least

at this point i wonder if Link vs. Nintendo would result in Link winning.

Is Link really heartless enough to double his own waifu?

Link is sick of all the service he's performed to the royal family of Hyrule over the decades. What do they do for Hyrule? Sit back and wait for the legendary hero to save them. Well, the legendary hero deserves to be king, and he's going to take that throne by force!

Generally Link never approached 50% when the field got non foddery in 4 ways so it stands to reason that combinations of 2 or 3 characters could beat him rather easily.

More evidence we need team battles with Link being anchored by Tanner or something.

Haste_2 posted...

I've done some analysis, and the outcome of Cloud vs. Mario tomorrow may depend on the following:

If Samus vs. Snake is accurate, as well as Tifa/Sephiroth, Mario beats Cloud with 53.74%
If Mario vs. Zelda is accurate, Cloud beats Mario with 51.63%

This is assuming Crono 2018 = Crono 2013 and Sub-Zero 2018 = Sub-Zero 2013.

(I wouldn't be surprised if both calculations are bad, though)

What happens if 2018 Crono is a little better than 2013 Crono?

tennisboy213 posted...

Haste_2 posted...

I've done some analysis, and the outcome of Cloud vs. Mario tomorrow may depend on the following:

If Samus vs. Snake is accurate, as well as Tifa/Sephiroth, Mario beats Cloud with 53.74%
If Mario vs. Zelda is accurate, Cloud beats Mario with 51.63%

This is assuming Crono 2018 = Crono 2013 and Sub-Zero 2018 = Sub-Zero 2013.

(I wouldn't be surprised if both calculations are bad, though)

What happens if 2018 Crono is a little better than 2013 Crono?

I would assume Cloud does better by the amount that you think Crono has boosted.

Cloud crushing Mario would be really sweet, especially after that Samus match.

Oh...I see Link came to town overnight (Europe)
Boring Link voters

Rip any chance of Zelda putting a surprise at the rematch

red sox 777 posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

red sox 777 posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Also yeah I'm not 30 yet so I'm going to go cry in a corner because Crono lost now.

You're not 30 yet?? How young were you back in 2002?

No, better question: How did someone that young end up such a Crono superfan?

EDIT: I'm also a Crono superfan. I didn't realize until after I posted this that I'm not 30 yet either. Man, I feel old.

I think my first vote in these things was Mario/Cloud. I think I was rallied from Planet Gamecube. I vaguely recall using Gamefaqs for an OOT walkthrough a couple years before that. After discovering these contests I realized they were much more fun than actually playing video games. As for Crono, um, Crono is just awesome.

You found contests more fun than games even as a kid?

I mean I like contests, but I’d definitely give them up before I gave up games. And I loved games even more as a kid.

How old were you when you played CT? Did you play it on SNES or emulator?

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Do we know for sure it existed and wasn't a rumor? I remember hearing about it on the board but I never got to see the real thing.

Hmm. I remember either seeing screenshots or looking at the code for a form, but those could be false memories.

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Mario has no chance either.

I know but we knew that pre contest

I feel a lot of Zeldas votes came from people thinking maybe she could get it done/get it close due to a bandwagon

Anyway I've got Cloud > Snake then Mario > Cloud for the final two losers matches. Only one can come off but I hope one does at least

It did for the first 30 mins. Then they realised they lost and stopped voting

Zelda was 50% at the freeze. 47 after half hour. Look at her now

QJD1381 posted...

Is Link really heartless enough to double his own waifu?

If this wasn’t a final and Zelda wasn’t being bandwagoned link would have most likely tripled her

I hate to miss the end of a legendary contest rematch, but it looks like Matio/Samus was fun. As a Mario-voter both matches, are we past the point of asking SB for recounts for close matches? Don't think I've seen him speak on any of the closest ones so far.

Not Wylvane is a national treasure.

HaRRicH posted...

I hate to miss the end of a legendary contest rematch, but it looks like Matio/Samus was fun. As a Mario-voter both matches, are we past the point of asking SB for recounts for close matches? Don't think I've seen him speak on any of the closest ones so far.

Not Wylvane is a national treasure.

Why would you need a recount? Sb allen isn't manually counting the votes lol

Tired: Draven won because he had more votes.

Wired: Draven won because of a DDoS.

Inspired: Draven won because hanging chads were not properly tabulated.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

People can come away from real life with different lessons. For me, I've seen people trash my town for millions of dollars of damage over losing a hockey game. If the worst thing people are doing is making angry message board posts over a contest match, that barely registers as a problem to me. In real life, people can be much, much worse than that.

This. So much this. I know that I'm going to beat the s*** out of the next person I come across wearing a Mario costume. I've not had a good fight in years!

I honestly can understand rooting for a video game character much more than rooting for a soccer team
At least the character has personality (sometimes), it's game gave you good times, and has a face to the name
In Soccer, you have 11 players + bench, the manager etc, they always change, after 10 years it's very unlikely that most of them stayed the same, the clothes change, the brand they advertise change, it's like a complete different thing, and people are still a fan of that "team"
What exactly are they fans of...I don't know

At least in Europe, soccer teams are considered part of the city/town, and a lot of fans grew up supporting a particular team. I guess it's the pride of a local community.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

tgs2 posted...

If this is somehow Zelda keeping it as "close" as it is right now via rSFF, Cloud has a shot against both Mario and Zelda in the loser bracket. There's a non-zero possibility that Cloud is still #2 after the bomb he put up in 2013. Hilarious.

The thought of our #2 not being worth 40% on Link is just pitiful.

It turns out, the #2, is actually s***.

Just like the GameFAQs community is s*** for not voting for *checks index card* "Noctis Lucis Caelum".

*crumples up index card and throws it in the trash, hell no I'm not recycling that s***, what do I look like, a nerd?*

I think the permutations I need to maintain 1st are

Link > Zelda
Mario > Cloud
Zelda > Mario
Link > Zelda

Just a Mario win tomorrow may be enough depending on if anyone within 8 points of me has Mario winning both matches. I'm sure someone has it though, same ss someone within reach probably has Cloud winning

I an fairly certain I didn't set a tiebreaker so I'd lose that

I feel with Zelda not keeping it anywhere near close, I am more likely not to win than win

ShatteredElysium posted...

I think the permutations I need to maintain 1st are

Link > Zelda
Mario > Cloud
Zelda > Mario
Link > Zelda

Just a Mario win tomorrow may be enough depending on if anyone within 8 points of me has Mario winning both matches. I'm sure someone has it though, same ss someone within reach probably has Cloud winning

I an fairly certain I didn't set a tiebreaker so I'd lose that

I feel with Zelda not keeping it anywhere near close, I am more likely not to win than win

Do you know what the two people in front of you have?

There isn't anybody in front of me, I'm currently in 1st.

I can check the Guru to see what a few people behind me have but it isn't accurate because if it was, XIII would be winning with 396 right now. It looks like no guru bracket can catch me unless theres some double Cloud win that I didn't check far enough down to find out. I'm fairly certain XIII's bracket isn't correct though on the Guru

You can check if you have a tiebreaker.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_mybracket

Just above your bracket it will say your score and tiebreaker.