Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1319 GameFAQs Contests

Mario is winning in the UK, so this overnight could be a little painful for Samus. If you look at last match though, her percentage had already pretty much bottomed out by this point and come morning, she rose 0.70% from there until the end of the match. And she is winning in both the US and Canada right now, which matches that. I think Mario is pretty cooked here, with most of his hopes hanging on later voters not being as contest-aware as earlier voters and not switching their vote because Mario won round 1.

red sox 777 posted...

OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.

Favorites can’t rally?

Mario was the underdog all those times he clutched out a win?

Zelda fans are absolutely the rally type, and CT fans don’t have any place to get significant support outside GameFAQs itself.

creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.

Favorites can’t rally?

Mario was the underdog all those times he clutched out a win?

Zelda fans are absolutely the rally type, and CT fans don’t have any place to get significant support outside GameFAQs itself.

OoT fans =\= Zelda fans. That’s just one game.

creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.

Favorites can’t rally?

Mario was the underdog all those times he clutched out a win?

Zelda fans are absolutely the rally type, and CT fans don’t have any place to get significant support outside GameFAQs itself.

Mario was the underdog against Cloud. Against Crono in 2003, he wasn't the favorite either - both characters had close to 50/50 support. He certainly wasn't anything like Link.

Zelda has never pulled off a single rally except for that Draven match - sure, part of it is that Zelda usually doesn't need rallies - but we saw nothing against Cloud or L-Block or Undertale. Draven provided the sense that an extremely powerful, outside, force was trampling the contest underfoot - and brought out the best in Link.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Samus you're going the wrong way.

She’s leading in America. She’ll be fine

And you know, Undertale, unlike Draven, got its rally from a large number of sources. It started on Tumblr but also drew significant strength from Reddit and Twitter, and from a lot of different people on each platform. It was.....organic. From our point of view it might have felt like a sure thing, but I don't doubt the UT ralliers themselves saw themselves as underdogs - and many on this site too.

Draven was getting all his rally support from a single thread on the League of Legends subreddit. There was no buildup, no crescendo with big comebacks in the last few hours of the poll, just the thread went up and the poll was nuked. No fun allowed for anyone else. And then they even DDOSed the site. So that produced blowback, and Link is, after all, a true hero. This kind of battle is, in some sense, his purpose.

But um, I'm also not convinced CT was actually stronger than OOT in 2015. OOT was probably getting anti-voted as the champion, and that means it's going to put up less impressive performances in matches where it wins by a lot, due to the anti-votes. It's why Cloud and Sephiroth have struggled to put up blowouts for a decade.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Samus you're going the wrong way.

She’s leading in America. She’ll be fine

And so did Megaman yesterday

red sox 777 posted...

But um, I'm also not convinced CT was actually stronger than OOT in 2015. OOT was probably getting anti-voted as the champion, and that means it's going to put up less impressive performances in matches where it wins by a lot, due to the anti-votes. It's why Cloud and Sephiroth have struggled to put up blowouts for a decade.

Yeah, I suppose OoT could have brought the goods when things actually got real, which due to the bracket structure, wasn't going to happen until the finals.

But the way OoT just rolled over and died against Undertale in the finals makes me really believe it would have lost to whatever on the top half of the bracket made it there, except maybe FF7 due to similar former champion status.

Mario/Sonic and Crono/Sephiroth could be solid bonus matches. If we could have four, might as well include Cloud/Mega Man and, I don't know, Pikachu/Tifa?

60 votes in it.

Mario....you can do this. Please.

Die hierarchy die

People still voting for Samus is actually quite annoying now.

I'm actually on the leaderboard now after getting Crono and Samus right.

I have Cloud and Samus winning today and then Mario tomorrow, so I can't get full points, but most people probably don't get that. Might end there!

Man this is making me regret my last minute fanboy picks worth two rounds of points in Squall>Zelda and Pikachu>Yoshi. On the other hand, Tifa winning the division was the same.

Good god this is so tight.

War made a point about later voters being more likely not to care about reversing the result and will just vote Mario again. What do you guys think?

I didn't make a point of that, I was just giving you a path of hope (even though you shouldn't need one for a match this close!), that in terms of raw votes if Mario does what he did last time, that'd be enough to win.

Ok sure

Samus has had the lead for like 8 hours at this point. She won the first half and Mario needs to reverse that to win. Samus is absolutely the favourite here and it's horrifying

don't worry, nothing will matter when zelda beats link 12 hours from now and a bunch of meant-to-be zero brackets rush to the top of the leaderboard

Three cuts in a row.

So Samus will win the next update by 20

Nanis23 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

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Samus you're going the wrong way.

She’s leading in America. She’ll be fine

And so did Megaman yesterday

hey just wanted to let you know that i'm too busy to do the rallies today so if you want to do it go ahead.

Yeah, on one hand, people wanting a reverse result has in large numbers probably voted by now. But I'd assume Samus is easier to get small rallies for and make a push for.

Mario looks to be taking the lead eventually under normal circumstances, but I have a hard time believing no one would push for Samus somewhere.

4 vote difference.

Anytime now.

Wow where did this come from

This is Mario's most consistent run of the match

XIII bout to do it for B8

TheKoolAidShoto posted...

XIII bout to do it for B8

Not a chance. Stuff this cool never actually happens

Mario now in the lead.

Lead change is great.

Hopefully Mario can manage to actually build something before Samus starts making a push.

Yesss Mario you manificent son of a b****
Keep leadinggg

f***ing GO

KamikazePotato posted...

Moonroof posted...

There was massive f***ery in that Seph Tifa match.

No proof of this. Basically lines up with Samus/Mario's results once you take the Nintendo hierarchy into account, which we know for a fact exists. And if an FF7 hierarchy exists, it goes in Sephiroth's direction, not the other way around.

The problem with taking Tifa/Seph at face value (beside the hentai rally f***ery) is how bad that makes Ryu look, who has no reason to have dropped that much in strength.

Looks like he got a shroom.

What is up with all those people rooting for Mario

What kind of person roots for the hierarchy. You f***ing elitists.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

What is up with all those people rooting for Mario

What kind of person roots for the hierarchy. You f***ing elitists.

Like I said, I 100% would normally want Samus to win. But this is maybe winning the guru/maybe contest vs. Typical mediocrity.

I root for Mario in any match he is in, always have.

I have to think the Samus hentai rallies have more juice in them than anything Mario can put together. That has been the trend of every close match this contest, whoever has the deeper well of votes will win. Look at X/Tifa, MM/Pikachu 1, Zelda/Mario, Crono/MM.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Moonroof posted...

show hidden quote(s)

There was massive f***ery in that Seph Tifa match.

No proof of this. Basically lines up with Samus/Mario's results once you take the Nintendo hierarchy into account, which we know for a fact exists. And if an FF7 hierarchy exists, it goes in Sephiroth's direction, not the other way around.

The problem with taking Tifa/Seph at face value (beside the hentai rally f***ery) is how bad that makes Ryu look, who has no reason to have dropped that much in strength.

Yeah, exactly. This is why I believe in Zelda bandwagon and perhaps a bit of rSFF in Zelda/Mario (it's in line with tge hierarchy). Not saying Samus/Mario has none of it, but everything before the legends bracket looks ridiculouslt wonky if you take Tifa/Seph at face value, even moreso if you think Seph is higher in that hierarchy today.

Well, Samus is not letting Mario run with it.

We tied up errybody.

10 hours left. Straight shootout to the finish.

Ahhhhhhhh

Idk what that Mario surge was earlier.

Mario in the lead again

Here's hoping this is a minor Samus surge coming from Mario taking the lead and he will bury her after the while. Probably not too likely.

Okay, that was quite the update.

Why are there so many close matches this contest
I know low votals, but this is % wise

Since no one gave an answer of how big her lead needed to get to outpace "Mario Clutch" (clearly more than 200), I'll ask this then.

How long does Samus need to stall to to have the advantage the rest of the day?

Mario was building a lead last time until the last 5 or so hours, where Samus cut the lead a little bit.

Mario with another more serious gain.

The past few times that happened, Samus slowly removed it again.

Edit: I can't get past I'm looking at a 13 vote gain and thinking that's good in a close match.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Mario was building a lead last time until the last 5 or so hours, where Samus cut the lead a little bit.

Damn....4 hours.... that sucks.