Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316 GameFAQs Contests

so does this mean no more immature sniping at people over mario/samus 2005?
or did samus have to win to stop that?

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That was 13 years. Jesus some people need to let it go.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

That was 13 years. Jesus some people need to let it go.

Character battles are serious business

AxemRedRanger posted...

so does this mean no more immature sniping at people over mario/samus 2005?
or did samus have to win to stop that?

Nah this match vindicates the people who thought Samus could win.

Any match that is 52-48 can turn around though.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Nah this match vindicates the people who thought Samus could win.

Not really. This match is less close in 2004 imo.

The concept of Samus being able to win has at least been proven but I think her best chance ever, barring a new hit metroid game, is going to be in a few days when these two rematch.

Does Mario lose without Odyssey?

Poor Samus, still an impressive result though.

For the record I was not saying Quiet would get a ton of design votes if she had a good pic as much as I believe her bad pixel crud hair in her match pic this year got anti-voted.

How confident are we all that Tifa>Sonic now?

Link versus Cloud posted...

How confident are we all that Tifa>Sonic now?

Of course she wins

Damn. I just checked for the first time since around the freeze last night.

Massive, impressive result for Samus.

Oh yeah and the next round of matches are....Pikachu vs Mega Man (AGAIN) and Crono vs Bowser (AGAIN!)
Spoilers Mega Man wins this time
Spoilers Crono wins again

We are going to get more matches to iron this out some more, but initial gut predictions for the new Top 10?

1)Link
2)Mario
3)Samus
4)Cloud
5)Zelda
6)Pikachu
7)Megaman
8)Crono
9)Snake
10)Tifa

3 guys sandwiched in between a match that ended closer than 51-49 huh? Bold.

Link versus Cloud posted...

We are going to get more matches to iron this out some more, but initial gut predictions for the new Top 10?

1)Link
2)Mario
3)Samus
4)Cloud
5)Zelda
6)Pikachu
7)Megaman
8)Crono
9)Snake
10)Tifa

From last night. My “top 10”

Link is top, we know that

Samus is above Mario (But will never ever beat him) but they are also close, we know that.

In other words Cloud is either above both or below both at 2 or 4, and there is no in between.

What may be in between is Crono.

Slight chance at rsff and #2 (but realistically no way), more than likely SFF as a whole. Which technically means (barring miracle Rsff) Crono could go anywhere from 3-5, and he maybe could split Samus and Mario depending on how he ends up on that slot.

Well.... at least for NN.

Because then there is Zelda and Pikachu!

Zelda could be anywhere from 2-6 overall, we know she’s for sure ahead of Snake Sonic and Pikachu.

Speaking of Pikachu. He’s surely ahead of Sonic and MM, almost guaranteed to be ahead of Snake, may he ahead of Crono. But I’d find it unlikely.

Then there is MegaMan. I can’t imagine a situation where Pikachu is ahead of Zelda, or even Crono, but I will admit to at least the slim possibility of it. Pikachu however is definitely behind Mario, Samus and Cloud...

Then there is Snake. All alone. Probably the clear #7 NN member. But at least he’s not....

Sonic and Seph. Excuse me while I cry. I wanna see these two have a match.

So, to do this the easiest way possible I’m gonna rank them based off their 2002 strengths (sans cheating) and give a ceiling and floor for the characters, instead of a concrete rank yet. Zelda and Pikachu just throw too many wrenches in to try

Link Ceiling 1, floor 1
Sephiroth ceiling.... 11, f***. Floor. Around 25
Crono ceiling 3, floor 8
Cloud ceiling 2, floor 5
Megaman ceiling 7 floor 10
Sonic ceiling 9 floor top 20
Samus ceiling 2 floor 6
Mario ceiling 2 floor 6
Snake ceiling 7, floor 10
Pikachu ceiling ceiling 6, floor 9
Zelda ceiling 2 floor 7

Yes, in the actual rankings I factored in the 1 in 10,000 chance Pikachu is stronger than Zelda somehow. Realistically her floor is 6

I'd give Pika way higher than 1 in 10000 of being stronger than Zelda.

Way I see it currently:

1. Link
-tier-
2. Mario
3. Samus
4. Cloud
-tier-
5. Pikachu
6. Mega Man
7. Zelda
8. Snake
-tier-
9. Sephiroth
10. Tifa
Crono
Sonic
Luigi
MMX
Bowser
Kirby
Alucard
Ganondorf
Zero
Yoshi
A bunch of other dudes

So really the idea of a noble nine doesn't fit right now. If I had to shoehorn someone into the top 9 I'd probably wedge Sephiroth or Crono in but both feel too weak to really be on a higher tier than most of the upper carders we have. They both seem really beatable. Heck I still feel like Kirby is probably a better fit than those two, Bowser beating him be damned.

Still sad to see only 3 women here. Aren't there any other strong female characters? But to tell the truth most video game characters are males anyways.

Lopen posted...

I'd give Pika way higher than 1 in 10000 of being stronger than Zelda.

Way I see it currently:

1. Link
-tier-
2. Mario
3. Samus
4. Cloud
-tier-
5. Pikachu
6. Mega Man
7. Zelda
8. Snake
-tier-
9. Sephiroth
10. Tifa
Crono
Sonic
Luigi
MMX
Bowser
Kirby
Alucard
Ganondorf
Zero
Yoshi
A bunch of other dudes

So really the idea of a noble nine doesn't fit right now. If I had to shoehorn someone into the top 9 I'd probably wedge Sephiroth or Crono in but both feel too weak to really be on a higher tier than most of the upper carders we have. They both seem really beatable. Heck I still feel like Kirby is probably a better fit than those two, Bowser beating him be damned.

Crono is way too low

he would beat the likes of MM Pikachu and Sonic with ease

He got 54.88% on Bowser and lost easily to Cloud dude.

Pika or Mega are going to speedbump him imo.

Lopen posted...

He got 54.88% on Bowser and lost easily to Cloud dude.

Pika or Mega are going to speedbump him imo.

You think Pika and Mega make it close to Cloud?

Safer_777 posted...

Still sad to see only 3 women here. Aren't there any other strong female characters? But to tell the truth most video game characters are males anyways.

Ellie had a chance till they SJWd her....
Lara probably is everywhere else except this site.
Bayonetta would be if millions didn’t consider her a literal cancer now.

Kitana, Cammy, Chun Li, Sophitia, maybe Cortana? All other other strong females are probably either individual Pokémon, or fighter characters.

Lopen posted...

I believe her bad pixel crud hair in her match pic this year got anti-voted.

The bad pixel crud hair is an issue with every character with hair in MGSV, tbh. I'm replaying it now and the hair is basically the same as Skyrim's hair on cows and mammoths. Pretty bad to look at these days.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

You think Pika and Mega make it close to Cloud?

I think Cloud being in the third tier and competitive with Mega Man and Pika is more likely than Crono beating Mega and Pika easily. Crono hasn't really done a lot to warrant much faith in him unless you think really highly of Bowser.

We'll see in a few days though.

Lopen posted...

He got 54.88% on Bowser and lost easily to Cloud dude.

Pika or Mega are going to speedbump him imo.

We'll find out soon enough.

snake_5036 posted...

The bad pixel crud hair is an issue with every character with hair in MGSV, tbh. I'm replaying it now and the hair is basically the same as Skyrim's hair on cows and mammoths. Pretty bad to look at these days.

Yes but you can at least properly crop out the image. Quiet's pic this year looked like it was done in MS Paint.

Og Zelda's ceiling is #2, then Snake's is #3

Lopen posted...

Not really. This match is less close in 2004 imo.

Sounds possible on the heels of Prime and Sunshine.

But I don't really know what the stats said.

I think this year had more signs for Samus doing well in Tifa and Zelda going crazy. Hell Chun Li too. The Girl Power sugoi~ factor is real.

Samus's fame in 04 was basically dispatching Sonic easily and putting a up a good number on Cloud. Sonic projected as weak that year through Ryu though.

The STATS said Samus blows Mario up in 04, a stats humiliation which stats purists have pinned on 05 Mario seemingly being stronger than 04 Mario, but I feel like Samus 18 is stronger than 04 or 05 Samus anyway.

Samus may be stronger now, but relative to Mario she's slightly weaker. In 2004 she was expected to get 56% against Mario while here she was only expected to get around 52%.

She was likely stronger in 2003 too, but her x-stat was hidden by Link/Samus SFF.

No pics yet?

CRAZY prediction - not only does Mega Man win this time, he will win with 52-53%

We love underdogs

You're using a SFF match to get her expected percentage on Mario which isn't necessarily going to be reliable. Although the intuitive approach would be that Seph is indirectly stronger than Tifa which only helps Samus's case more measuring that way since Mario would ve expected to win outright if Seph > Tifa. But yeah I wouldn't say "she's slightly weaker" is a given. Unfortunately we get Tifa/Samus 2 instead of Tifa vs Mario or Seph vs Samus which would really clear everything up but yeah

Lopen posted...

He got 54.88% on Bowser and lost easily to Cloud dude.

Pika or Mega are going to speedbump him imo.

Is 54.88% on Bowser that much worse than 54.8% on Yoshi?

Bowser this year? Probably

Speedbump was a bit strong though. I'm not expecting a blowout but I think they should be thought of as a clear favorite by a few percent.

Match CXXXVII: (7) Pikachu vs. (8) Mega Man

Current Contest Performance

Pikachu
Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59%
Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59%
Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20%
Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44%
Defeated Mega Man, 50.11% - 49.89%
Lost to Link, 31.59% - 68.41%

Mega Man
Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11%
Defeated Ganondorf, 60.03% - 39.97%

Analysis

Didn’t we see this match before? Given how close the match was it wouldn’t take too much to flip it. Of course, we could just as easily see Pikachu win by more. So, what are the factors that could change the match? The smallest change is the fact that the characters have swapped positions. While the fact that humans are more likely to pick the top/left option is true, these options are so well known it is unlikely people will just pick randomly. The picture could also be a factor, one character getting a cooler picture could be enough to tip the scales.

The largest factor is just plain randomness. Despite getting similar vote totals each day different people do vote and perhaps today they may slightly favour Mega Man. Pikachu also has the benefit of rallying which he used in his previous match, will they return again to vote in the same match? Probably.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man > Ganondorf

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pikachu wins, 50.11% - 49.89%




Match CXXXVIII: (5) Crono vs. (4) Bowser

Current Contest Performance

Crono
Defeated Bowser, 54.88% - 45.12%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 43.27% - 56.73%

Bowser
Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61%
Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45%
Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81%
Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14%
Lost to Crono, 45.12% - 54.88%
Defeated Alucard, 51.24% - 48.76%

Analysis

While Pikachu/Mega Man can be overlooked due to how close it was, this match shows the flaw of the loser’s bracket. Three out of the four matches in this round are rematches and while in sports that could lead to different results in voting situations large changes are unlikely.

The gap between Crono and Bowser is just too great for randomness to change the result. If you want to use Cloud/Alucard to predict this match it would suggest Crono would only get 53.07% instead of 54.88%, whether Bowser gets closer to that result remains to be seen.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Bowser

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 54.88% - 45.12%

Why are so many people thinking Mega Man wins here? Pikachu has the pervert hentai fans in his corner, pervy hentai characters have been unbeatable this week

Moonroof posted...

No pics yet?

They generally don't go up until closer to an hour before the match, but guessing the URL of any given day has been a challenge in itself.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Why are so many people thinking Mega Man wins here? Pikachu has the pervert hentai fans in his corner, pervy hentai characters have been unbeatable this week

Mhm.. I don't know, Mega Man's blaster is very popular in some circles, dude.

Surskit posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Why are so many people thinking Mega Man wins here? Pikachu has the pervert hentai fans in his corner, pervy hentai characters have been unbeatable this week

Mhm.. I don't know, Mega Man's blaster is very popular in some circles, dude.

Mega Man is a child sicko

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Surskit posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Why are so many people thinking Mega Man wins here? Pikachu has the pervert hentai fans in his corner, pervy hentai characters have been unbeatable this week

Mhm.. I don't know, Mega Man's blaster is very popular in some circles, dude.

Mega Man is a child sicko

Does the concept of age really apply to robots? I mean, Metal Man is probably the youngest character in the contest if you consider he was probably built months before the events of Mega Man 2, but I don't think he's the character that would get Chris Hansen sent after anyone.

mega man is a man, duh. a Man, even.

man I didn't think BT could somehow become worse than he already was but he has proven me wrong by how buttfurious he continues to be about Tifa/MMX

Oh right, X-Stats from yesterday:

Link – 50.00%
Pikachu – 31.59%
Mega Man – 31.52%
Yoshi – 28.56%
Zero – 27.45%
Knuckles the Echidna – 24.07%
Kratos – 23.12%
Wario – 21.82%
Scorpion – 21.22%
Zidane Tribal – 20.80%
Ganondorf – 20.36%
Vivi – 19.56%
Dante – 17.75%
Donkey Kong – 17.62%
Master Hand – 17.03%
Velvet Crowe – 16.77%
Chun-Li – 16.73%
Leon Kennedy – 15.62%
Monika – 15.46%
Tidus – 15.17%
Shantae – 14.70%
Spyro the Dragon – 14.67%
Noctis Lucis Caelum – 14.46%
Primrose – 14.17%
James Sunderland – 13.07%
James Marston – 12.40%
Lightning – 12.21%
Cuphead – 10.09%
Yu Narukami – 9.83%
Dragonborn – 9.78%
Aya Brea – 9.61%
Neku Sakuraba – 8.71%
Victor Sullivan – 7.77%
Chloe Price – 6.30%

LeonhartFour posted...

man I didn't think BT could somehow become worse than he already was but he has proven me wrong by how buttfurious he continues to be about Tifa/MMX

"SJWFF"

I still want to know why there's two F's

Lopen posted...

I think this year had more signs for Samus doing well in Tifa and Zelda going crazy. Hell Chun Li too. The Girl Power sugoi~ factor is real.

Samus's fame in 04 was basically dispatching Sonic easily and putting a up a good number on Cloud. Sonic projected as weak that year through Ryu though.

The STATS said Samus blows Mario up in 04, a stats humiliation which stats purists have pinned on 05 Mario seemingly being stronger than 04 Mario, but I feel like Samus 18 is stronger than 04 or 05 Samus anyway.

Wow. You’re *still* going to cling to this? I truly thought this match would put this stuff to bed and we wouldn’t have to talk about it much again.

“Stats purists”. You are tilting at windmills. This crap was never about “stats purity”, it was about a disagreement in logic. This statement reveals your entire perspective of this debate is twisted. You are attacking a position that nobody gives a crap about.

I’ve said before how Samus is our most stable character, and if waifu factor has helped her it is to keep her stable, nothing more.

I’ve also said before that I think SFF is wonky, sensitive and unpredictable. I think this match and Link/Ganon more or less confirm that.

Frankly I think the best argument for Mario winning in 2K4 is none of what you claim. It would be that the 2K5 result itself made Samus more sympathetic. Thus lowering Mario’s rSFF powers.

But a 51.6ish% victory can clearly be flipped depending on year. You’d be in denial to not accept that.

The “Samus can’t beat Mario” notion is now done. Gone forever. Kaput. Assigned to the dustbin of history. Completely dismissable at this point.

I do not believe she ever *will* be able to beat Mario - but if Mario has a big game that flops while Samus has some GOTY classic on a hit console like BOTW was, yes, she could win. Again - I doubt this actually happens.

I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Crono – 45.01%
*Crono – 43.27%
Bowser – 40.62%
Alucard – 39.61%
*Bowser – 39.05%
Kirby – 37.48%
Pokemon Trainer Red – 36.59%
*Kirby – 36.04%
Sora – 35.93%
Charizard – 35.30%
Big Boss – 35.00%
Princess Peach – 34.22%
2B – 33.96%
*Charizard – 33.93%
Terra Branford – 33.33%
Crash Bandicoot – 32.99%
*2B – 32.65%
Kefka – 32.13%
*Terra Branford – 32.04%
Yuna – 31.99%
Ness – 31.43%
Ridley – 30.33%
Cecil Harvey – 30.23%
*Ness – 30.22%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 29.38%
*Shadow the Hedgehog – 28.51%
Bomberman – 25.82%
L-Block – 25.58%
Phoenix Wright – 23.76%
Ike – 23.44%
*Phoenix Wright – 23.05%
*Ike – 22.54%
Isaac – 22.27%
Ryo Hazuki – 22.22%
*Isaac – 21.41%
Chris Redfield – 20.46%
Kazuma Kiryu – 20.20%
*Chris Redfield – 19.67%
Guile – 19.08%
Gordon Freeman – 18.36%
*Guile – 18.35%
Neptune – 18.06%
Joel – 17.66%
*Gordon Freeman – 17.65%
Godot – 17.56%
*Joel – 16.98%
Estelle Bright – 15.76%
*Estelle Bright – 15.15%
Cayde-6 – 15.08%
*Cayde-6 – 14.50%

The asterisks are based on the Cloud/Crono direct match, just for fun.

LeonhartFour posted...

Zidane Tribal – 20.80%
Ganondorf – 20.36%
Vivi – 19.56%

seems legit

redrocket posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

man I didn't think BT could somehow become worse than he already was but he has proven me wrong by how buttfurious he continues to be about Tifa/MMX

"SJWFF"

I still want to know why there's two F's

What is SJWFF?

(Yes I know what SJWs are, sadly)

creativename posted...

I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.

Sure you do because there's no reason to expect any matchup to flip over 10% from year to year without a significant release or factor specific to one of the characters to point to.

Let it be known I predicted this meeting within 1% too, if we're keeping score.