Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315 GameFAQs Contests

squexa posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

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there's no reason why Mario/Samus can't threaten Link, at least in a Finals rematch.

Buwahahahaaha. I want what youre smoking man.

This could all be crazy talk, but I'm envisioning something like this:

Mario will likely go to the winner's finals against Link, where he will lose. Meanwhile, Samus is cleaning up the loser's bracket and the loser's finals will be a Mario-Samus rematch. At this point, I think Samus will very likely win since people want to see someone else challenge Link since there's no point sending Mario there again.

On a normal day, Link will probably win a Samus vs Link match, but will it really be a 60-40 SFF beating? Samus got 42% on Link in 2003, while Samus got 40% on Mario in 2005. We've seen Samus improve 8% against Mario this year and we've seen how well Super Metroid held up to Majora's Mask, so it wouldn't surprise me if Link-Samus is normally a 55-45 affair nowadays. Couple with the fact that Samus should be getting a bandwagon and people antivoting Link and I can see the final match being a lot closer than we'd expect.

Again, could be all crazy talk and Link can 60-40 everyone so who knows.

It is crazy talk because you’re using data from years that aren’t relevant and games that aren’t relevant. super Metroid is probably samus strongest game or one of her strongest games (probably flip between prime and super). MM would most likely get doubled by OOT.

My point is there’s no such thing as people “wanting someone else to win because they’re sick of the same people winning”

Mario most likely beats Samus again.

And Link isn’t going to be anti voted to such an extent that he lets Samus get more than 40 on him.

Let’s not talk about things that simply won’t happen.

What we want is cloud vs Mario/Samus and Zelda vs cloud and MM vs crono or crono v pikachu etcc. That’s the real interest of this contest.

Not to see who can break 40% on Link

Tbh only Cloud can. And even then that’s being hopeful.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

So why isn't Mario SFFing Samus this time around despite Odyssey behind him? Samus has had literally zero reason to boost.

We've lost so much votals since 2005, and I think the remaining base is much more likely to be the ones that would stick by Samus in spite of the Nintendo heiarchy.

It's the same thing that happened to Seph against Tifa, except that Mario is lucky that he was still able to assert enough power to avoid the result to flip.

And he’s had Odyssey

Honestly if Odyssey didn’t exist....he’d probably lose this.

And I mentioned this an hour ago but right now most of the sites traffic is towards the switch board and smash board.

More smash fans= more neutral view on the hierarchy.

Squall looks better.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

It is crazy talk because you’re using data from years that aren’t relevant and games that aren’t relevant. super Metroid is probably samus strongest game or one of her strongest games (probably flip between prime and super). MM would most likely get doubled by OOT.

ALttP destroyed Super Metroid in 2004 (74-26), but MM went 50-50 with Super Metroid in 2015. We know that ALttP and MM aren't that far apart, since ALttP barely beat MM in 2015. Sure, there could be some weird SNES-N64 SFF but the point is that Link and his series' ability to SFF Samus and her series is no longer as great as it used to be.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

And Link isn’t going to be anti voted to such an extent that he lets Samus get more than 40 on him.

This may or may not be true, but I just don't know why this is being taken near certainty. I'm pretty sure you assumed Mario SFF Samus to the ground as well before this match, but you can see how well Samus resists the SFF from Mario:

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Also how much is Samus expected to get on Mario Indirectly without SFF?

I'm guessing she wins 51-49 or loses 51-49 maybe 52-48 either way.

Obviously Mario should get over 58 with SFF

Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

squexa posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

It is crazy talk because you’re using data from years that aren’t relevant and games that aren’t relevant. super Metroid is probably samus strongest game or one of her strongest games (probably flip between prime and super). MM would most likely get doubled by OOT.

ALttP destroyed Super Metroid in 2004 (74-26), but MM went 50-50 with Super Metroid in 2015. We know that ALttP and MM aren't that far apart, since ALttP barely beat MM in 2015. Sure, there could be some weird SNES-N64 SFF but the point is that Link and his series' ability to SFF Samus and her series is no longer as great as it used to be.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

And Link isn’t going to be anti voted to such an extent that he lets Samus get more than 40 on him.

This may or may not be true, but I just don't know why this is being taken near certainty. I'm pretty sure you assumed Mario SFF Samus to the ground as well before this match, but you can see how well Samus resists the SFF from Mario:

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Also how much is Samus expected to get on Mario Indirectly without SFF?

I'm guessing she wins 51-49 or loses 51-49 maybe 52-48 either way.

Obviously Mario should get over 58 with SFF

I never said Samus couldn’t resist SFF from Link. I’m saying she won’t do it as well against Link as she is against Mario.
Mario is still getting some SFF advantage over her because she’s indirectly even or slightly stronger.

Link would get more. And he’s outright a stronger character to begin with whereas Mario isn’t. And never was historically. When Mario was getting bum rushed by Sephiroth Samus was beating the likes of Snake and going toe to toe with Cloud.

As I’ve said before. Without the Odyssey boost Mario probably loses today.

Games aren’t relevant when talking about characters with multiple games. Links strongest game isn’t MM. So it’s not really relevant. Super Metroid going close to MM has nothing to do With Sff. Both are hugely respected games.

SwiftyDC posted...

Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

If she had a few more prime/super esqu games she would. Of course she would.

She hasn’t had any real “Top” or Elite games ( and by that I mean GOTY contender on this site) since Prime 2. 3 wasn’t even that popular here. Mario has stayed relevant with two incredibly well received Galaxy games and Odyssey as well being more popular amongst mainstream Nintendo fans.

Samus is relying on her hardcore fans only. She’s only doing well because of SJW boost that seems to have helped virtually every female this contest.

I make the same argument with Fox

Fox has had nothing but turd for over 15 years. If he had Some absolute quality titles to his name he would be a N9 breaker himself. He’s a huge smash favourite. You look at any smash related polls over the past 10 years about who’s people’s fav and he consistently appears in the top 5 ahead of the likes of Mario and Link. But his popularity these days is down to smash alone. Which isn’t strong enough to do anything.

What does Tifa/Sephiroth predict here? A Samus win?

pjbasis posted...

What does Tifa/Sephiroth predict here? A Samus win?

Yes, but are you really pretending that Samus's board vote is as godawful as Seph's is?

pjbasis posted...

What does Tifa/Sephiroth predict here? A Samus win?

Samus with like 52% I think.

SwiftyDC posted...

Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

The hierarchy only goes so far. Zelda or Luigi don't beat Samus afterall. It's looking like if Samus breaks 55% against Mario indirectly it would be enough to hold on.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

If she had a few more prime/super esqu games she would. Of course she would.

She hasn’t had any real “Top” or Elite games ( and by that I mean GOTY contender on this site) since Prime 2. 3 wasn’t even that popular here. Mario has stayed relevant with two incredibly well received Galaxy games and Odyssey as well being more popular amongst mainstream Nintendo fans.

Samus is relying on her hardcore fans only. She’s only doing well because of SJW boost that seems to have helped virtually every female this contest.

I make the same argument with Fox

Fox has had nothing but turd for over 15 years. If he had Some absolute quality titles to his name he would be a N9 breaker himself. He’s a huge smash favourite. You look at any smash related polls over the past 10 years about who’s people’s fav and he consistently appears in the top 5 ahead of the likes of Mario and Link. But his popularity these days is down to smash alone. Which isn’t strong enough to do anything.

The Mario series would have to have an epic collapse for Samus to overtake him. That isn't happening anytime soon. And I don't see her overtaking him with MP4. There is a clear Nintendo hierarchy.

But if Zelda beats Mario next round then maybe? But that might be because Link and Zelda are from the same series.

charmander6000 posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

The hierarchy only goes so far. Zelda or Luigi don't beat Samus afterall. It's looking like if Samus breaks 55% against Mario indirectly it would be enough to hold on.

She might do after Prime 4.

I mean hell when was Samus last mainstream popular title? Prime 3? That was 11 years ago and that game wasn’t anywhere near the level of a Galaxy or Odyssey. So we’re going back to Prime 1. 2002. It’s insane how she’s still so damn Strong.

Nobody cares about Luigi. He'll always take the L.

Bowser/Kirby/Ganondorf > Luigi. Respect the hierarchy.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I never said Samus couldn’t resist SFF from Link. I’m saying she won’t do it as well against Link as she is against Mario.
Mario is still getting some SFF advantage over her because she’s indirectly even or slightly stronger.

Link would get more. And he’s outright a stronger character to begin with whereas Mario isn’t. And never was historically. When Mario was getting bum rushed by Sephiroth Samus was beating the likes of Snake and going toe to toe with Cloud.

As I’ve said before. Without the Odyssey boost Mario probably loses today.

Games aren’t relevant when talking about characters with multiple games. Links strongest game isn’t MM. So it’s not really relevant. Super Metroid going close to MM has nothing to do With Sff. Both are hugely respected games.

We'll see how it goes. I think the entire question is how great is Link's SFF ability these days and whether he can still destroy Samus like he could in 2003 or whether Samus can keep it respectable. At the very least, his 68 on Pikachu should certainly make Samus tremble.

SwiftyDC posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

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Samus would never be able to beat Mario.

If she had a few more prime/super esqu games she would. Of course she would.

She hasn’t had any real “Top” or Elite games ( and by that I mean GOTY contender on this site) since Prime 2. 3 wasn’t even that popular here. Mario has stayed relevant with two incredibly well received Galaxy games and Odyssey as well being more popular amongst mainstream Nintendo fans.

Samus is relying on her hardcore fans only. She’s only doing well because of SJW boost that seems to have helped virtually every female this contest.

I make the same argument with Fox

Fox has had nothing but turd for over 15 years. If he had Some absolute quality titles to his name he would be a N9 breaker himself. He’s a huge smash favourite. You look at any smash related polls over the past 10 years about who’s people’s fav and he consistently appears in the top 5 ahead of the likes of Mario and Link. But his popularity these days is down to smash alone. Which isn’t strong enough to do anything.

The Mario series would have to have an epic collapse for Samus to overtake him. That isn't happening anytime soon. And I don't see her overtaking him with MP4. There is a clear Nintendo hierarchy.

But if Zelda beats Mario next round then maybe? But that might be because Link and Zelda are from the same series.

Dude... Mario only has like 52.5% on Samus now.

That’s nothing to do with hierarchy. It clearly shows Samus is getting closer. With NO games.

Mario games aren’t collapsing that’s not my point. But maybe let’s say ceiling for Mario has been reached

Where is Samus ceiling? Probably another 4/5 floors up.

Just look at it logically. Mario has had several AAA GOTY calibur games over the past 10 years. A recent one in Odyssey. Hugely popular on a hugely popular system. He’s Nintendo’s mascot. He’s Nintendo’s icon.

Yet he’s only doing 52% on Samus.

Think about that for a second.

Now if it was reversed and Metroid Prime 4 came out last year with glowing praise and hype and Mario has nothing and Samus was putting up this performance you’d say” well she got a prime 4 boost Mario hasn’t had any games just you wait until Odyssey comes out”

But that’s not the case.

SwiftyDC posted...

Nobody cares about Luigi. He'll always take the L.

Bowser/Kirby/Ganondorf > Luigi. Respect the hierarchy.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(3)Kirby_vs_(2)Luigi_2006

Always?

Didn't Kirby lose to Scorpion way back too?

No, it was Jill Valentine.

Mario just laying haymakers now.

SwiftyDC posted...

Didn't Kirby lose to Scorpion way back too?

Jill Valentine, but by 2006 we were pretty much at peak Kirby, that's the same Kirby that got 48% on Bowser in 2005.

Though to be fair if we are invoking the hierarchy Kirby is no where near the top. Zelda, Mario and Pokemon are clearly ahead

It's funny that a plumber is more popular than a cool space bounty hunter.

Maybe one day people will wise up.

Here's a wild thought:

If our first Character Battle was in 1996, Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man are by far the strongest characters in the field.

Samus boosting probably has more to do with the Nintendo fanbase being more exposed to Metroid through the Prime Trilogy rereleases and Super Metroid (IIRC it was a big VC game on the Wii U since it was like, thirty cents. Don’t laugh at me) so she’s probably less weak to SFF compared to years past

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Here's a wild thought:

If our first Character Battle was in 1996, Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man are by far the strongest characters in the field.

Again....Lttp did exist and so did LA and is stronger than any MM/Sonic game. Link would still beat MM and Sonic. But they’d be close matches. Mario would be clear fav though.

OoT just put Link on a God like status because that game was links first 3D game. His 2d games aren’t niche. Even by that point I’m pretty sure Zelda series outsold the sonic series. It definitely outsold the MM series.

VeryInsane posted...

Samus boosting probably has more to do with the Nintendo fanbase being more exposed to Metroid through the Prime Trilogy rereleases and Super Metroid (IIRC it was a big VC game on the Wii U since it was like, thirty cents. Don’t laugh at me) so she’s probably less weak to SFF compared to years past

Tifa besting Seph all of a sudden would also point to Females just having more weight and Power.

Now Samus always had power for a woman. By far the strongest female in contest history but now she has the feminine vocals backing her. It explains why she’s able to get so close to Mario.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Well, despite the confusing SJWFF affecting these result, I take solace that Tifa needed a hentai rally to win a nailbiter against MMX. I don't understand this Zelda boost though, BotW was the worst main Zelda game besides 2 AND skyward Sword

Not understaind a boost because you dislike a game?

I'm not a HGUE fan of BOTW but clearly it was insanely popular and still is the most current and relevant Zelda game to date as well as the populairty ofSwitch right now thats boosted most other Nintendo characters.

Also this is coming from a person who couldn't stop whinign about Brawl losing to MM and how Anti Brawl fans and Pro Melee fans antivoted it to stop it from winning GOTD

Brawl sucked and MM beating Brawl was the best result to happen in GFaqs contest history. WE've had bandwagons from outsiders gving Draven and Undetale Wins but nothign would have been worse than BRawl winning GOTD. Nothing. Absoliute fraud of a game that didn't even make it into the following BGE contest.

Brawl > Undertale

Come at me!

Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2

Link vs. Pikachu
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 6405 (67.19%)
Pikachu - 3127 (32.81%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 7319 (70.65%)
Pikachu - 3041 (29.35%)

Cloud Strife vs. Crono
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5456 (57.24%)
Crono - 4076 (42.76%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5782 (55.81%)
Crono - 4579 (44.19%)

While the Link/Ganondorf match really didn't give us too much information on how registered voters feel about Link, we're getting a much better idea in this match with Pikachu doing about 3.5% better with registered users. Traditional Nintendo has generally had an edge with registered users over Pokemon in this contest, such as we saw with Charizard/Bowser. Pikachu seems to be an exception to the rule as Pikachu did better with registered users in the match against Yoshi.

Cloud did about 1.5% better with registered users in this match, which was a surprise given all things Chrono Trigger has a pretty strong early vote. Though as we've seen many times before, the early vote is not indicative of how the final registered/anonymous user results will turn out.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Here's a wild thought:

If our first Character Battle was in 1996, Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man are by far the strongest characters in the field.

Crono would surely be up there as well, and Kefka would likely be at least Sephiroth level, assuming he was still the favorite from FF6 instead of Terra/Locke/Celes.

Tifa isn't really that much stronger than she was in the past. Sephiroth has just tanked pretty hard over the years. He is projected to lose to Luigi and Mega Man X as well.

SwiftyDC posted...

No, it was Jill Valentine.

I honestly think had Jill been in RE2 and RE4 she would be f***ing killing it right now.

Such an underrated character that should be a lot more popular than she is

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Here's a wild thought:

If our first Character Battle was in 1996, Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man are by far the strongest characters in the field.

Crono....
Hell, Link and Samus are still towards the top.

ALttP sold a ton, and SM is still Samus’s Strongest game.

It is interesting to think who else would be here though.

I can’t imagine Snake would yet.

Fox wouldn’t yet.
The earlier FF games didn’t sell well yet.

Best guess is Crono, Mario, Yoshi, Bowser, Link, Crash, Sonic, Kirby, Sub Zero, Ryu, Samus, Duke, DK in some order.

Obvious MegaMan, X and maybe Zero too.

But certainly the first 2.

Also, in 1996 there is literally no way MM>X.

NONE!

So Mario isn't exactly destroying Samus here

But Samus is just so cool compared to Zelda

I mean...does Zelda have any shot? I need Mario to lose big time.

XIII_rocks posted...

So Mario isn't exactly destroying Samus here

But Samus is just so cool compared to Zelda

I mean...does Zelda have any shot? I need Mario to lose big time.

If Zelda wins I’m winning the contest....

So I pray she does. But I can’t see it.

Captain_Sorzo posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Here's a wild thought:

If our first Character Battle was in 1996, Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man are by far the strongest characters in the field.

Crono would surely be up there as well, and Kefka would likely be at least Sephiroth level, assuming he was still the favorite from FF6 instead of Terra/Locke/Celes.

Disagree on Kefka, but you're right on Crono. I do think that ChronoTrigger took a few years to get its insane popularity, though.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Tifa besting Seph all of a sudden would also point to Females just having more weight and Power.

You could argue that Tifa was pretty close to Sephiroth in 2013, this isn't anything new.

XIII_rocks posted...

So Mario isn't exactly destroying Samus here

But Samus is just so cool compared to Zelda

I mean...does Zelda have any shot? I need Mario to lose big time.

56% on Sonic and she can beat Mario?

So You think Snake could take Mario as well now?

Cmon people stop overhyping Zelda.

Honestly, Crono probably wasn't all that popular until emulation became popular. The game did sell rather poorly.

charmander6000 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Tifa besting Seph all of a sudden would also point to Females just having more weight and Power.

You could argue that Tifa was pretty close to Sephiroth in 2013, this isn't anything new.

Indirectly. Im talking 1v1

charmander6000 posted...

Honestly, Crono probably wasn't all that popular until emulation became popular. The game did sell rather poorly.

And never came it in Europe until 2006 I think

Most Europeans played it on emulator before.

charmander6000 posted...

Honestly, Crono probably wasn't all that popular until emulation became popular. The game did sell rather poorly.

Over a million copies.

And we are talking THIS site. What others game back then would even bring you to anything like a FAQ site.

FinaIFantasy posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Honestly, Crono probably wasn't all that popular until emulation became popular. The game did sell rather poorly.

Over a million copies.

And we are talking THIS site. What others game back then would even bring you to anything like a FAQ site.

This is a good point. It’s why FFVII was so popular and jrpgs in general have more weight on this site than most.

FinaIFantasy posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Honestly, Crono probably wasn't all that popular until emulation became popular. The game did sell rather poorly.

Over a million copies.

And we are talking THIS site. What others game back then would even bring you to anything like a FAQ site.

Most of them were from Japan, I think it only sold around 300k outside of Japan by 1996

Like there's no doubt Crono would have some strength, but Chrono Trigger was more of a slow burner than instant classic.

charmander6000 posted...

Like there's no doubt Crono would have some strength, but Chrono Trigger was more of a slow burner than instant classic.

I didn’t even hear about Chrono Trigger until I first came to this site around 2001 looking for an FF8 Guide.

And I had a SNES since 93. Then again I did live in UK.

Samus has been Stalling Mario for the past Hour

Even a minor rally could swing things for Samus.

Let’s start wih Tumblr since that will die out soon

This may seem to defy SFF logic of the past, but it looks like to me that it's not Mario that's rSFFing Samus. Instead, Tifa was the one who rSFFed Sephiroth. The x-stats in Sephy's/Tifa's divisions make more sense that way....to me, at least.

I'm pretty sure Tifa's win just proves that Vyse isn't a fraud.