Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1314 GameFAQs Contests
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Based
on this result and the two MM matches, Link is projected to get 81% on
Ganon. He is performing better here than he did against Ganon! I guess anti-voting kept him from going higher in the Ganon match? |
Cloud
is also overperforming against Crono based on stats, so I guess
anti-voting really goes up depending on the size of the blowout. |
Yuri_LowelI posted... Calintares posted...how much difference does an OoT picture make vs a BotW pic? Netflix series gave Alucard relevancy again and may have boosted him to a new high. "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion" Always remember. "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Cloud is also overperforming against Crono based on stats, so I guess anti-voting really goes up depending on the size of the blowout. i honestly think crono overperformed on bowser. >_______________> |
SlugSh0t posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...Cloud is also overperforming against Crono based on stats, so I guess anti-voting really goes up depending on the size of the blowout. Why? |
SlugSh0t posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...Cloud is also overperforming against Crono based on stats, so I guess anti-voting really goes up depending on the size of the blowout. Or cloud is sffing crono a bit Why does Sff only exist for Nintendo franchises? Clearly a huge ton of people have played both. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... SlugSh0t posted...ZeldaTPLink posted...show hidden quote(s)Cloud is also overperforming against Crono based on stats, so I guess anti-voting really goes up depending on the size of the blowout. tuxedo bowser might have actually hurt him more than we think. Anyways.. I think there is some SSF here as well.. I won't be deny that. >_______________> |
I'm pretty sure tuxedo Bowser made me vote for him. |
I
could see Crono having more overlap with Nintendo characters than Final
Fantasy characters honestly. When you look at what type of character
he is he has a lot more in common with Link than Cloud. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Imo
what happens is that after a certain percentage stats are not just that
linear, especially when you consider popular characters like this.
Cloud has a hard time going much above 60% because everybody anti-votes
him to prevent Final Fantasy from winning again. Link also faces the
same problem albeit on a small scale maybe. |
Lopen your Noble nine theories have had a rough week maybe just accept the obvious sff from games released two years apart. Sir Chris (edited 12/2/2018 4:59:02 PM) |
Lopen posted... I could see Crono having more overlap with Nintendo characters than Final Fantasy characters honestly. When you look at what type of character he is he has a lot more in common with Link than Cloud. Maybe if Crono was in smash sure. He has no relevance to Nintendo now. FF was part of Nintendo in that SNES era. Lloyd Irving has more Nintendo Link Than Crono I’m not talking about the SNES era Nintendo fans anymore. It’s the modern ones GameCube and onwards era. And I’m not talking about FF. JRPGs in general Pretty much a huge % of Jrpg fans on this site has played both. So they’d have a common interest in Crono and Cloud (edited 12/2/2018 5:00:03 PM) |
Link pushing for the doubling... Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Crono has faced FFVII a few times and it hasn't ever really had any obvious SFF though No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
actually agree with Crono not being that closely linked to Cloud. He
probably has a little SFF with both Nintendo and FF. But limiting it too
company doesn't sound very accurate. |
Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2 Solid Snake vs. Auron Registered Vote Result: Solid Snake - 5372 (62.74%) Auron - 3190 (37.26%) Anonymous Vote Result: Solid Snake - 5171 (59.02%) Auron - 3591 (40.98%) Tifa Lockheart vs. Sephiroth Registered Vote Result: Tifa Lockheart - 4483 (52.37%) Sephiroth - 4078 (47.63%) Anonymous Vote Result: Tifa Lockheart - 4579 (52.25%) Sephiroth - 4184 (47.75%) After the unusual result of Snake doing better with registered users in the Zelda match, this result against Auron is more typical of the characters that have done great or poorly with registered users. Snake does almost 4% better with registered users here. Same fanbase matches can be wonky sometimes, and here's a result that is about as close as you can get to an identical result between registered and anonymous users. Tifa only barely does better with registered users, but not by much. Lopen thought this match might have the biggest difference between registered and anonymous users. Unfortunately, that is not the case here. As a result of the rather poor vote totals today (only about 600 votes ahead of Ganondorf/Mega Man and Alucard/Bowser), we've got a second straight day with more than 49% registered users. Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
hylianknight3 posted... A+ match pics across the board today. BUT SPRITES ARE PIC SABOTAGE 100% OF THE TIME I MEAN NO ONE ENJOYS THEM AT ALL @LordoftheMorons!!! Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
Wow.
I guess the early antivote crowd isn't disproportionately made up of
registered users. That's really weird to me. Seems counter intuitive
but that's pretty rock solid evidence No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... Wow. I guess the early antivote crowd isn't disproportionately made up of registered users. That's really weird to me. Seems counter intuitive but that's pretty rock solid evidence could it have to do with people forgetting to log in before voting? "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion" Always remember. "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
Advokaiser posted... Link pushing for the doubling... I wonder if Mega Man would have done any different. Probably much Worse considering how bad he is in Europe. Would most likely get doubled with ease. |
im317 posted... Lopen posted...Wow. I guess the early antivote crowd isn't disproportionately made up of registered users. That's really weird to me. Seems counter intuitive but that's pretty rock solid evidence Do people actually log out? Like only time I ever log out is when my cookies expire and it makes me log in again |
Thank you Cloud. Now rise up! LM |
Lopen posted... Wow. I guess the early antivote crowd isn't disproportionately made up of registered users. That's really weird to me. Seems counter intuitive but that's pretty rock solid evidence I also went back and calculated Tifa's percentage with registered and anonymous users with the board vote and at the end of the first hour. The results showed the early anti-vote crowd doesn't consist mainly of registered users. During the first 5 minutes: Registered users - 55.03% Anonymous users - 60.19% At the end of the first hour: Registered users - 56.16% Anonymous users - 54.57% After that point, Tifa lost percentage for the rest of the match among both registered and anonymous users. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
LusterSoldier posted... I also went back and calculated Tifa's percentage with registered and anonymous users with the board vote and at the end of the first hour. How do you do this exactly? Is it just an estimate based on some sort of theory or is there some sort of way to figure out how many registered voters have voted at a specific point in the match? No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Crono is fairly independent from both Nintendo and Square so he avoids SFF better than most. Overlap still exists though. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Lopen posted... How do you do this exactly? Is it just an estimate based on some sort of theory or is there some sort of way to figure out how many registered voters have voted at a specific point in the match? Raw vote totals over the course of the match can be obtained from the source code of this page: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/map?id=7369 (you can change the poll ID to check other matches) After viewing the source code, you have to look under the section for var pollChart_total to see the raw vote totals. Each data point represents a 5 minute update, starting from the 5 minute mark in the match. The first data point for both characters is the raw vote totals at the end of the board vote, but finding the vote totals for the end of the first hour is a bit tougher. The number shown inside of the quotation marks (such as 1543708800000) is a Unix timestamp, and you can convert them into an actual human readable timestamp by inputting it onto a website such as this one: https://www.epochconverter.com/ Note that the Unix timestamps in the source code with the raw vote totals have to be adjusted forwards by 5 minutes. Although Unix timestamp 1543712100000 corresponds to 7:55 PM (if you input this into a converter), this actually refers to the 8:00 PM update instead. That's what I meant when the Unix timestamps in the GameFAQs source code have to be adjusted forwards by 5 minutes. Once I have the raw vote totals for the end of the board vote and Power Hour, these can be inputted into a spreadsheet along with the adjusted vote totals from creativename's updater to calculate the registered/anonymous results. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! (edited 12/2/2018 5:30:19 PM) |
KamikazePotato posted... Crono is fairly independent from both Nintendo and Square so he avoids SFF better than most. Overlap still exists though. Overlap exists for everything. My point is it’s much higher for Crono cloud because 1) They are two of the most popular JRPGs on the site with the most playrate of any jrpgs most likely 2) % of fans of CT and FF7 are higher than % of fans who love both FFX and SOTN for example. When you get matches like Phoenix Wright vs KOSMOS The % of people who have played both is probably hugely significantly less than people who have only played one or neither. So overlap is probably very insignificant. |
Ahhh okay. Thanks for explaining that. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yuri_LowelI posted... 1) They are two of the most popular JRPGs on the site with the most playrate of any jrpgs most likely Sure but it's all armchair theory. Practice has never shown any sort of disproportionate results between FFVII and Crono Like SFF requires the result to be significantly different if the two meet than indirectly. That's never really proven to be the case though. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! (edited 12/2/2018 5:39:44 PM) |
Cloud is bleeding percentage like crazy for the last half hour. Heck, Crono just cut in the last one. It's like Cloud had a weak 5 minutes but a strong power hour, and now it's Crono who is stronger. |
Lopen posted... Yuri_LowelI posted...1) They are two of the most popular JRPGs on the site with the most playrate of any jrpgs most likely No but the difference isn’t huge. I’m not saying crono/cloud is Link/Mario. But with how low the votals are on this site now than ever I think Sff has to be more relevant than any other contest. |
And then Cloud gains a big update. Nvm. |
Measuring
through Alucard and Bowser says Crono should get 45%. This isn't
something we really need to explain away as random variation makes as
much sense as anything. Hell Bowser rSFFing Crono's Nintendo fanbase
element like he may have done Kirby makes as much sense. I'm just saying SFF between Crono and Cloud isn't "obvious" cause we've never really seen evidence for it before. I'd argue we've seen more evidence over the years for Castlevania and FF SFF or Crono and Nintendo SFF tbh. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yeah Cloud is overperforming by 1% now. That difference is basically noise. |
C'mon Link, get that double! You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
This result sucks. You better go and put 46% on Link again, Cloud. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
red sox 777 posted... This result sucks. You better go and put 46% on Link again, Cloud. Hahaha. Honestly. Cloud will be doing well to put 43% on him. They won’t even face each other until Thursday I think. One day before smash. |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Yeah Cloud is overperforming by 1% now. That difference is basically noise. Night vote. Day vote. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Zelda – 50.00% Solid Snake – 49.68% Sonic the Hedgehog – 42.16% Auron – 38.52% Aerith Gainsborough – 37.81% Squall Leonhart – 36.68% Geralt – 36.10% Fox McCloud – 35.77% Bayonetta – 35.46% Simon Belmont – 34.52% Vincent Valentine – 34.05% Pac-Man – 34.00% Ryu Hayabusa – 33.97% Sub-Zero – 33.35% Jill Valentine – 32.83% Magus – 32.77% Waluigi – 32.19% Rosalina – 31.75% Captain Toad – 30.26% The Boss – 29.30% Shovel Knight – 28.70% Lucina – 26.62% Garrus Vakarian – 26.39% Ramza Beoulve – 26.06% Metal Sonic – 25.48% Riku – 25.25% Shulk – 24.97% Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67% Claire Redfield – 22.59% Joker/Ren Amamiya – 20.89% D. Va – 20.37% Sans – 19.47% Aloy – 19.18% Hat Kid – 17.69% |
LeonhartFour posted... Zelda – 50.00% What even is a Hat Kid? Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
A little girl that wears a hat in a game with a very bad camera |
And next Samus Aran – 50.00% Mario – 48.05% Tifa Lockhart – 41.07% Mega Man X – 40.92% Luigi – 39.95% Sephiroth – 39.16% Mewtwo – 34.42% Ryu – 31.13% Frog – 30.66% Amaterasu – 30.25% Captain Falcon – 27.47% Lara Croft – 27.28% Revolver Ocelot – 25.86% GlaDOS – 25.82% King Dedede – 25.60% Miles “Tails” Prower – 24.25% Albert Wesker – 23.28% Geno – 22.02% Richter Belmont – 21.76% KOS-MOS – 21.74% Master Chief – 21.59% Nathan Drake – 20.99% Commander Shepard – 20.82% King K. Rool – 20.31% Ellie – 19.81% Lloyd Irving – 19.64% Aqua – 18.53% Miles Edgeworth – 18.01% Metal Man – 17.52% Isabelle – 15.84% Monokuma – 14.49% Goro Majima – 13.38% Quiet – 13.30% Draven – 7.18% |
UltimaterializerX posted... What even is a Hat Kid? https://imgtc.com/i/u893f31.gif LeonhartFour posted... Geno – 22.02% Truly something to behold. (edited 12/2/2018 6:45:59 PM) |
Wow we went full circle with Riku vs Ramza Warning: I'm literally VeryInsane. |
LeonhartFour posted... And next Buahahahaha |
LeonhartFour posted... And next Uh oh... Character Battle X Current Score: 256/352 "I will ... never be a memory..." |
Is
it really that unbelievable, Sephiroth got like 53% against Kirby in
what was more or less a legit match, it's one of the reasons why I went
with MMX > Sephiroth in my bracket. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Crono |
The Owner of FF9 posted... LeonhartFour posted...And next If Mario wins it will at least prove rSFF once and for all (either because Samus > Mario or Sephiroth > Tifa indirectly) CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Crono |
ninkendo posted... A little girl that wears a hat in a game with a very bad camera It's a girl? Wow. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Advokaiser posted... ninkendo posted...A little girl that wears a hat in a game with a very bad camera Clearly, this is the Samus moment for the younger generation. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40 |
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