Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312 GameFAQs Contests
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Is
there any reason Sephiroth will get anywhere near Mario aside from the
fact that all the Noble Niners are (under)performing? (oh, wait...
Sephiroth is a Noble Niner, too!) "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 11/29/2018 12:47:41 PM) |
Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change. Cloud - 50 Zelda - 48.41 Pikachu - 48.40 Mega Man - 48.40 Solid Snake - 48.12 Crono - 47.02 Ganondorf - 44.82 Sonic - 44.46 Bowser - 42.42 Auron - 40.82 Alucard - 39.60 mnkboy907 posted... Why is Snake above Zelda? Because I put an / instead of an * in a line of Excel. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... Cloud - 50 throw it in the trash |
Sephiroth
looked pretty good in all his matches so far. And even though there was
a 10k-vote rally and LFF, Mario did lose to Vivi last contest. Plus
Sephiroth has destroyed Mario whenever they have faced in the past. That said, I have Mario low to mid 50s. |
100 Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! |
Averia posted... KamikazePotato posted...Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that. I'm pretty sure there would have been no significant rally for Link/OOT except against Draven. Link was the hero in that match, he would be the tyrant against normal characters. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
Zelda responds to the lead being cut to 100 with the largest update by either of them in over an hour |
KamikazePotato posted... Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that. Thanks for posting the two most annoying wishful thinkings in the same post 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
I mean all Snake needed was for Samus to hold Link down just a little bit to beat him. |
After that entire hour, it only ends up a 2 vote win by Snake. Zelda is doing the stalling she needs. i7 7700k, RTX 2070, 16gb DDR4 2666MHz Playing: Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4), Fallout 76 (PC) |
Another
large update for Zelda. If she carries on like this she either has a
minor rally or the voting pattern has swung enough where Snake will get
buried Her last 2 updates were 41 and 45 after averaging 26.9 votes the previous 10 updates (edited 11/29/2018 1:05:30 PM) |
Zelda by the hour: time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit 20:00 | 50.64% | +50 | +50 21:00 | 51.10% | +55 | +105 22:00 | 52.27% | +98 | +203 23:00 | 50.30% | +11 | +214 00:00 | 52.87% | +84 | +298 01:00 | 51.00% | +29 | +327 02:00 | 46.02% | -96 | +231 03:00 | 47.79% | -43 | +188 04:00 | 49.82% | -3 | +185 05:00 | 44.30% | -80 | +105 06:00 | 44.84% | -75 | +30 07:00 | 46.95% | -54 | -24 08:00 | 50.00% | 0 | -24 09:00 | 50.58% | +12 | -12 10:00 | 50.98% | +20 | +8 11:00 | 51.47% | +29 | +37 12:00 | 54.75% | +91 | +128 13:00 | 50.17% | +3 | +131 14:00 | 51.51% | +26 | +157 15:00 | 48.48% | -23 | +134 16:00 | 49.86% | -2 | +132 Snake needs to cut 3.67 votes per update to tie. Based on the last 2 hours, Zelda wins by 95 votes. Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 126 votes. Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 264 votes. |
This result is still so surreal to me. Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
Man this prooves that even if Snake wins he has no chance againt Link. He can barelly defeat Zelda. Eh. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
Safer_777 posted... Man this prooves that even if Snake wins he has no chance againt Link. He can barelly defeat Zelda. Eh. we've got a generation these days who thinks Link's name is Zelda Snake's still got a chance |
I am hyped for the Zelda/Zelda finals. |
Yeah, barring a Snake rally this is done. That update was all Snake falling away rather than Zelda spiking like previously |
so
i kinda wanna go to sleep, but also Zelda's lead isn't big enough for
me to comfortably go to sleep with, so i'm just gonna do the thing. sorry. |
With 30 updates left, Snake needs to cut 4.63 votes per update to tie. He needs about 53% of the remaining votes. |
tennisboy213 posted... With 30 updates left, Snake needs to cut 4.63 votes per update to tie. So essentially what you're saying he needs to turn into overnight Snake suddenly to win. Yeah, its not looking good. i7 7700k, RTX 2070, 16gb DDR4 2666MHz Playing: Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4), Fallout 76 (PC) |
just gotta get a rally going n_n |
150 vote difference now zelda's got this barring an immediate david hayter tweet You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
It's okay, Zelda doesn't win clutch matches A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Has Zelda ever had matches that could even be clutch? Or is that the joke? No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... Has Zelda ever had matches that could even be clutch? Charizard/DK in 2013 |
although
the statement was more about the Zelda series in general because they
usually win big if they win and they lose a relatively high percentage
of the time if their opponent can keep it close |
Holy
**** Snake is losing to Zelda? I know the NN isn't quite a thing
anymore but I did not expect Snake to lose to someone outside of the NN.
Last time we saw him in a proper 1vs1 match he was beating Sephiroth. I guess it kinds of makes sense. The MGS series is in a very bad situation...a lot of fans were unhappy with MGSV which solid snake was not even the protagonist of while Zelda had a game many consider to be one of the best ever made. next match is going to suck, both Tifa and Seph will probably lose. Hopefully they put up a good fight. ... |
Match CXXVII: (2) Samus Aran vs. (3) Tifa Lockheart Previous/Current Contest Performance Samus Aran - 2013 Round 1: 68.51% against Sandbag (18.86%) and Isaac Clarke (12.63%) Round 2: 61.85% against Knuckles the Echidna (21.33%) and Catherine (16.82%) Round 3: 41.70% against Tifa Lockheart (33.81%) and L-Block (24.49%) Round 4: 38.48% against Mega Man (33.32%) and Pokemon Trainer Red (28.20%) Round 5: 18.06% against Draven (49.13%) and Solid Snake (32.81%) Tifa Lockheart Defeated Geno, 73.19% - 26.81% Defeated Mewtwo, 58.10% - 41.90% Defeated Mega Man X, 50.18% - 49.82% Defeated Luigi, 51.36% - 48.64% Analysis Here’s a rematch no one really wanted. In 2013 Samus had no issue defeating Tifa and while in 2006 she needed a comeback to win, that was more due to the Zero Suit Samus picture than anything else. There’s a lot of discussion as to where Samus ranks within the Noble Nine outside that she would clearly lose to Link and Mario. From what I’ve seen so far, she has a great chance at being the third strongest overall, but she’ll need to prove it. Tifa did well to reach the championship bracket, but her performances against Mega Man X and Luigi shows that she isn’t a Noble Nine breaker, at least not at the level where she could defeat Samus. Her match against Luigi has likely killed off any chance that she could be stronger than Cloud or Sephiroth, but that was always going to be a long shot. charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus Aran > Mega Man X charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus Aran wins, 57.31% - 42.69% Match CXXVIII: (7) Mario vs. (1) Sephiroth Previous/Current Contest Performance Mario - 2013 Round 1: 69.47% against Duke Nukem (20.12%) and Fawful (10.41%) Round 2: 41.09% against Vivi (41.27%) and Ganondorf (17.64%) Sephiroth Defeated Albert Wesker, 70.28% - 29.72% Defeated Captain Falcon, 64.93% - 35.07% Defeated Amaterasu, 61.37% - 38.63% Defeated Ryu, 60.26% - 39.74% Analysis Sephiroth has been a monkey on Mario’s back during the early to mid contests and this will be his best chance at overcoming that mental block. Mario wasn’t exactly decent in 2013, sure he lost to Vivi due to Ganondorf and rallies, but at the same time he would have underperformed by quite a lot. Vivi has since proven himself in this contest and while I feel the board may now consider Mario to be the number 2 it’s more due to no one else stepping up. Sephiroth looked okay in his matches, nothing to suggest that he dropped in strength, but nothing that Mario couldn’t replicate except maybe his performance against Ryu. Sephiroth’s best chance at winning is to hope that the characters in the main bracket have received a boost. I still don’t quite believe it, but it would suggest why the Elite 8 characters have relatively underperformed. charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Sephiroth charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario wins, 55.31% - 44.69% CBX - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Sonic |
17:00 | 50.57% | +7 | +139 Snake needs to cut 5.79 votes per update or get ~54% of the remaining votes to tie. Based on the last 3 hours, Zelda wins by 127 votes. Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 153 votes. Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 139 votes. (edited 11/29/2018 2:05:26 PM) |
Snake needs to contact his friends by codec for tips on defeating Zelda, fast. Last
finished: Splatterhouse 3 (GEN). Splatterhouse 2 (GEN). Splatterhouse:
Wanpaku Graffiti (NES). Friday the 13th (C64). Splatterhouse (ARC). |
How stronk does Zelda look right now? I anticipated that even with the MGS decline it would knock him down from #2 to top 5 rather than to barely top 10. If he is still borderline top 5 and on the same level as Cloud, Mario, Samus that means Zelda could be the potential #2. Its also possible Snake has just tanked hard and he might be below Megaman/Sonic/Crono now and that Zelda is still well below Samus/Mario/Cloud. LeBron "Stannis" James - The one true king of the NBA |
If Snake can't beat Zelda his entire bracket career is pointless anyway Just hope he will do better in the losers bracket 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
We'll find out next round! https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Anyone found signs of a noteworthy rally? These
minor spelling errors were brought to you by an ipad having no real
feedback to enable me to know when i mistype and my own laziness. |
I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. It’s not enough though. We’re trying to get more. |
Moonroof posted... I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. It’s not enough though. We’re trying to get more. I wanted this to be real and actually thought for a moment "it might be.." then I read the username 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Link versus Cloud posted... How stronk does Zelda look right now? If we keep the relationship between Auron and Aerith constant she is expected to get 51.24% against Sonic. Auron is probably weaker now, but regardless her performance against Aerith places Zelda in the lower noble nine region. Could Snake have dropped that much? Possibly. Regardless this likely won't place her as the number 2 though she should give any character a scare (before SFF). CBX - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Sonic |
Nanis23 posted... Moonroof posted...I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. It’s not enough though. We’re trying to get more. I’m serious. We’re up to 93 now. You’re just jealous I’m ahead of you in the leaderboard. |
Moonroof posted... Nanis23 posted...Moonroof posted...show hidden quote(s)I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. It’s not enough though. We’re trying to get more. Are you admin of an msg forum or something Started from the bottom now we here |
Moonroof posted... I have 87 friends https://i.imgtc.com/VJR7HtP.jpg You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
Moonroof posted... Nanis23 posted...Moonroof posted...show hidden quote(s)I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. It’s not enough though. We’re trying to get more. Oh you passed me? now I feel even worse for taking Bowser over Crono f*** my life 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
I hope you learned your lesson. Currently up to 99 btw. |
With 18 updates left, Snake needs to cut 7.72 votes per update to tie. He needs ~55% of the remaining votes. |
You know what though I want something like Moonroof said to happen SO MUCH I just want to believe it Like, I dunno, Steiner or someone asking the whole Discord to hold their vote for the last minute in a close match, and then boom, 150 votes comeback It will never, ever happen, but it can be f***ing cool 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Nanis23 posted... You know what though If it’s ever gonna happen... How about... NOT THIS MATCH!!! Can we not ruin our Crowning Moment in contests? Thx. |
Link versus Cloud posted... How stronk does Zelda look right now? KamikazePotato posted... Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change. Zelda is legitimizing her result against Squall and Aeris today. Other N9 members are going to have to bring their A-game from here on out. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
111 people! |
Moonroof posted... 111 people! And it still won't be enough But go ahead and hype your n_n 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
KamikazePotato posted...
What are these numbers based on? 2013 adjusted stats vs base Cloud? Also why aren't Samus and Mario on there? Seeing this result, my intuition says that Zelda will beat Sonic and then lose to Mario and then Samus. But who knows maybe she can get some hierarchy based rSFF in those match-ups too. LeBron "Stannis" James - The one true king of the NBA |
13 updates left Snake needs 111 people per update to win 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
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