Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312 GameFAQs Contests

So I looked at the vote totals for each match, the split between Registered/Anonymous voters in each one. General takeaways I found:

1. There is a small correlation between the number of voters and the number of Anonymous voters. Higher Vote Totals = A Higher % of Anonymous Voters (by a little). However, as the vote totals only rise slightly as the contest goes on, this doesn't amount to much and it's honestly hard to tell if there's even a correlation.
2. There is a much bigger correlation between the length of the contest and the % of Anonymous voters. The longer the contest goes on, even despite the number of voters not necessarily increasing very much, a larger portion of them end up being Anonymous voters. The first two matches had less than 50% of the voters be Anonymous; by the end of the main bracket, the Anonymous voters generally made up about 53% of all voters.

So what does this mean? Well...the day of Cloud/Alucard and Crono/Bowser got the standard number of vote totals and 53.3% of voters were Anonymous. So the week break doesn't look like it's done too much damage to the natural contest momentum.

However! It affected Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu quite a bit. You may be surprised to hear that, despite the supposed rallies going on, those matches received less Anonymous Voters than the next day, both in the percentage and the raw amount. There were less Registered Voters as well. This implies that the week break affected the voter turnout for Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu...especially among Anonymous Voters, who likely weren't as aware of when the contest was coming back as the Registered Voters. So, theoretically speaking, there will be more Anonymous Voters when Mega Man and Pikachu have a rematch. And Mega Man is more popular among Anonymous Voters.

tl;dr - Stats predict that Mega Man has the edge going into his salty runback, as there will be more Anonymous Voters this time around.

i credit zelda's massive boost with me finally playing hyrule warriors and she is so goddamn fun to play as

KamikazePotato posted...

So I looked at the vote totals for each match, the split between Registered/Anonymous voters in each one. General takeaways I found:

1. There is a small correlation between the number of voters and the number of Anonymous voters. Higher Vote Totals = A Higher % of Anonymous Voters (by a little). However, as the vote totals only rise slightly as the contest goes on, this doesn't amount to much and it's honestly hard to tell if there's even a correlation.
2. There is a much bigger correlation between the length of the contest and the % of Anonymous voters. The longer the contest goes on, even despite the number of voters not necessarily increasing very much, a larger portion of them end up being Anonymous voters. The first two matches had less than 50% of the voters be Anonymous; by the end of the main bracket, the Anonymous voters generally made up about 53% of all voters.

So what does this mean? Well...the day of Cloud/Alucard and Crono/Bowser got the standard number of vote totals and 53.3% of voters were Anonymous. So the week break doesn't look like it's done too much damage to the natural contest momentum.

However! It affected Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu quite a bit. You may be surprised to hear that, despite the supposed rallies going on, those matches received less Anonymous Voters than the next day, both in the percentage and the raw amount. There were less Registered Voters as well. This implies that the week break affected the voter turnout for Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu...especially among Anonymous Voters, who likely weren't as aware of when the contest was coming back as the Registered Voters. So, theoretically speaking, there will be more Anonymous Voters when Mega Man and Pikachu have a rematch. And Mega Man is more popular among Anonymous Voters.

tl;dr - Stats predict that Mega Man has the edge going into his salty runback, as there will be more Anonymous Voters this time around.

good stuff

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

IS the Losers Round two matches per day?

Yes. For the first four rounds.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77205898

I'm a bit confused

It says This round finishes Friday..but th Losers round starts Saturday...does that Mean after toorrow match endinf on Friday..we don't get another poll until the next day?

Those times are confusing because This Current round started on Monday...not Tuesday PST.

When it says Tuesday does that mean Tuesday GMT European time? Because its not Pacific or Eastern Time.

40 vote cut by snake damn

DAvid Hayter trying to rally for Snake

Give it up man. You aren't Snake anymore...

But seriously one of my fav moments of any contest was when Hayter got Involved and said Draven looked like a Drag Queen.

As if there was any debate there was a stronger Zelda bias here than an FF bias...

Zeldas Gains will dry up when East Coast goes to sleep soon. This will be neck and neck for a while but Zelda should be getting a 250-300+ Lead by the time Europe wakes up.

MZero11 posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

tl;dr - Stats predict that Mega Man has the edge going into his salty runback, as there will be more Anonymous Voters this time around.

good stuff

indeed, good s***.

A Mega Man comeback would be amazing (and keep my bracket on life support).

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Sorry, I meant "turd because some people probably hate her so much right now."

IMO, Zelda is clearly the star now. She's leapfrogged Alucard, Pikachu, and anyone else.

May I suggest "troll" instead of "turd"? She's certainly busted more than a few brackets.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

DAvid Hayter trying to rally for Snake

Give it up man. You aren't Snake anymore...

But seriously one of my fav moments of any contest was when Hayter got Involved and said Draven looked like a Drag Queen.

where? don't see it on twitter or fb

The Owner of FF9 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

DAvid Hayter trying to rally for Snake

Give it up man. You aren't Snake anymore...

But seriously one of my fav moments of any contest was when Hayter got Involved and said Draven looked like a Drag Queen.

where? don't see it on twitter or fb

I was joking when Snake made a large cut. David doesnt care about MGS now Konami Forgot about him

By the way, I know it's been mentioned before but HOLY HNNG Hyrule Warriors character models are amazing. Zelda somehow looks even better than before.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

show hidden quote(s)

DAvid Hayter trying to rally for Snake

Give it up man. You aren't Snake anymore...

But seriously one of my fav moments of any contest was when Hayter got Involved and said Draven looked like a Drag Queen.

where? don't see it on twitter or fb

I was joking when Snake made a large cut. David doesnt care about MGS now Konami Forgot about him

His twitter feed would suggest that isn't true. He also came back for this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R47Vq2AAVAY

under 100 >_> snake doing it

CaptainOfCrush posted...

By the way, I know it's been mentioned before but HOLY HNNG Hyrule Warriors character models are amazing. Zelda somehow looks even better than before.

You would think so considering that its 90% of development for games like that. The Character Models.

Zelda looks like an actual fighter in Hyrule Warriors. I still like her TP design the best, In Hyrule Warriors they took that design and made her look ready to throw down.

KamikazePotato posted...

So I looked at the vote totals for each match, the split between Registered/Anonymous voters in each one. General takeaways I found:

1. There is a small correlation between the number of voters and the number of Anonymous voters. Higher Vote Totals = A Higher % of Anonymous Voters (by a little). However, as the vote totals only rise slightly as the contest goes on, this doesn't amount to much and it's honestly hard to tell if there's even a correlation.
2. There is a much bigger correlation between the length of the contest and the % of Anonymous voters. The longer the contest goes on, even despite the number of voters not necessarily increasing very much, a larger portion of them end up being Anonymous voters. The first two matches had less than 50% of the voters be Anonymous; by the end of the main bracket, the Anonymous voters generally made up about 53% of all voters.

Yes, I've noticed this too. The first 2 days of the contest were the only days that the matches had over 50% registered users, but they all had less than 27000 votes. Since then, no match has gotten below 28000 votes. Day 3 of the contest (with the Monika rally) was looking like it would have also gotten under 27000 votes too (and with over 50% registered users), but the rally could only barely put us above 29000 votes.

In the Mega Man/Pikachu match, it appeared we were on track for less than 27000 votes based on our vote totals after 12 hours and comparing them to Red/Alucard (our lowest voted match with a 7:00 PM EST starting time). The vote totals in Mega Man/Pikachu started picking up the pace relative to Red/Alucard after the 12 hour point and most of that was from the rally, but it also seemed like some of our regular voters before the break finally realized the contest was back again.

I estimated that we would probably get around 49% registered users in the match if the match stayed rally-free until the end, which translates to rough estimate of about 800 rallied votes. We actually finished with 46.91% registered users instead.

Snake Cutting That much in 20 mins bodes well for him.

The East Coast is going to bed Soon and Asia will neutralise Zeldas Lead to a minimum 200-250. Europe has to do the damage for Snake. And I mean Serious Damage.

If Snake pulls this off it will be the First time a Major Zelda character has lead and lost the match that didn't include a DDoS attack

Europe doesn't seem it will go heavily for Snake. He may be leading in the UK, but Zelda is leading in France and Germany which will dilute things.

Yeah, Zelda barely took a hit from Europe in her fight against the Boss, so this match is still a toss up.

Holy s*** Zelda, the SJWFF is real. I figured Snake would be weaker, but not this bad

Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 1

Cloud Strife vs. Alucard
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5676 (60.63%)
Alucard - 3685 (39.37%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6420 (59.98%)
Alucard - 4284 (40.02%)

Crono vs. Bowser
Registered Vote Result:
Crono - 5081 (54.28%)
Bowser - 4280 (45.72%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Crono - 5988 (55.94%)
Bowser - 4716 (44.06%)

Cloud actually does better with registered users, which is a huge surprise given that FFVII is generally weaker with registered users than anonymous users. Maybe Smash 4 has actually helped increase Cloud's support among registered users, which loves Smash to a greater extent than anonymous users.

Bowser performs about 1.6% better with registered users, but Crono's good support among registered users would otherwise prevent this match from being an even greater split between registered/anonymous users.

These 2 matches are one day removed from the return of the contest following the break, but both of these matches had a lower percentage of registered users despite not having any notable rallies during the match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

Dear God.

Man this site has such FF bias and just refuses to vote for those poor Nintendo characters huh

I'd be annoyed at Zelda doing so well against a character I like a lot more but honestly the sheer novelty of Zelda suddenly being god hasn't worn off for me.

squexa posted...

Yeah, Zelda barely took a hit from Europe in her fight against the Boss, so this match is still a toss up.

That’s the Boss. This is snake.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

squexa posted...

Yeah, Zelda barely took a hit from Europe in her fight against the Boss, so this match is still a toss up.

That’s the Boss. This is snake.

It's certainly possible the Boss has different trends from Snake, which is why I said this match is a tossup, but if we're trying to infer trends here, Zelda vs another MGS character is reasonable imo.

Zelda seems to be done playing around.

Welcome to KwootFAQS

Very tragic.

She come to town

Aaaand already above 200. Snake’s falling hard right now.

ZeldaFAQs has never been quite so literal

So at the very least, the proxy theory is dead, unless we believe Snake's a midcarder now.

Glad I was here for the death of the Noble Nine

UltimaterializerX posted...

I don’t care one bit about the LOL x stats. Solid Snake can’t beat Mario. Don’t @ me.

Snake now can't. Snake in the beginning of the decade? Yeah, probably. He beat Sephiroth in 2010, and Seph was always ahead of Mario (though this year might be Mario's chance)

Speaking of midcarders, how much does Simon Belmont put on Sonic right now?

It's the end of an era.

I am very happy I picked Zelda to win two matches in the winner’s bracket.

Snake’s support collapsed against Nintendo, and Sonic is more or leas in the same boat anymore. Not to mention BEAST of the Wild.

"Zelda should slow down soon, East Coast is gonna be sleeping, this is Snake's time to make a move"

Zelda: "Lol"

i wish it was true for snake's sake, though

Advokaiser posted...

How much does Simon Belmont put on Sonic right now?

40.53% right now.

Yoblazer asked people’s favorite feels good calls. If Zelda wins twice this will be right there with Starcraft > Halo for me.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

show hidden quote(s)

IS the Losers Round two matches per day?

Yes. For the first four rounds.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77205898

I'm a bit confused

It says This round finishes Friday..but th Losers round starts Saturday...does that Mean after toorrow match endinf on Friday..we don't get another poll until the next day?

Those times are confusing because This Current round started on Monday...not Tuesday PST.

When it says Tuesday does that mean Tuesday GMT European time? Because its not Pacific or Eastern Time.

Yeah, they're using UTC (or GMT if you prefer). It starts at midnight in that time zone.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Advokaiser posted...

How much does Simon Belmont put on Sonic right now?

40.53% right now.

Awesome!

Maybe people still think you play as Zelda.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I am very happy I picked Zelda to win two matches in the winner’s bracket.

Snake’s support collapsed against Nintendo, and Sonic is more or leas in the same boat anymore. Not to mention BEAST of the Wild.

Great call, regardless of the outcome. And I thought I was being daring by taking Zelda over Sonic lol.

And yeah I guess this is what happens when Zelda gets Breath of the Wild and Snake gets f***ing pachinko machines.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Snake’s support collapsed against Nintendo, and Sonic is more or leas in the same boat anymore. Not to mention BEAST of the Wild.

If Snake still looks bad against Auron or Sonic, then we can put the blame on Snake collapsing rather than losing some of his support from facing a Nintendo opponent.

I have Zelda beating Snake in the rematch cause I had it close and expected people to flip on rematches often enough to flip really close ones

Going to be annoyed if I get it backwards

Lopen posted...

I have Zelda beating Snake in the rematch cause I had it close and expected people to flip on rematches often enough to flip really close ones

Going to be annoyed if I get it backwards

It'll take a lot of silliness for you to get it backwards, since I think Zelda would have to beat Snake and either lose to Sonic or be stronger than Samus/Mario indirectly.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

I don’t care one bit about the LOL x stats. Solid Snake can’t beat Mario. Don’t @ me.

Snake now can't. Snake in the beginning of the decade? Yeah, probably. He beat Sephiroth in 2010, and Seph was always ahead of Mario (though this year might be Mario's chance)

Nope.

I don't give a damn about stats. We've been here before.

Zelda losing to Sonic wouldn't surprise me that much