Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1311 - This is How the Noble Nine Dies GameFAQs Contests

Pokemon's boost happened when the original PokeGeneration hit college age and realized hating things for being 'kiddy' was really lame and liking things for being fun was cool and good.

I made a ton of friends in college over talking about Pokemon.

Ocarina of Time
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Final Fantasy VII
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Brawl

I wouldn't put Majora's Mask in when it barely edged out Super Metroid. I would take out Majora's Mask and Brawl and replace them with SMW and SMB3! Everything else is good, though! (and maybe there's room for FFVI instead of FFX?)

*sigh about the utter lack of non-Nintendo/Square*

Haste_2 posted...

Ocarina of Time
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Final Fantasy VII
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Brawl

I wouldn't put Majora's Mask in when it barely edged out Super Metroid. I would take out Majora's Mask and Brawl and replace them with SMW and SMB3! Everything else is good, though! (and maybe there's room for FFVI instead of FFX?)

*sigh about the utter lack of non-Nintendo/Square*

You're absolutely right. I don't know why I completely forgot SMW and SMB3 existed.

If Crono = Cloud, right now Alucard = Kirby. I really should just give up on Crono > Cloud but I can't helping looking for ways it might work.

Haste_2 posted...

Ocarina of Time
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Final Fantasy VII
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Brawl

I wouldn't put Majora's Mask in when it barely edged out Super Metroid. I would take out Majora's Mask and Brawl and replace them with SMW and SMB3! Everything else is good, though! (and maybe there's room for FFVI instead of FFX?)

*sigh about the utter lack of non-Nintendo/Square*

Well there's always the possibility that Super Metroid is just an elite as well. It's mostly just run into ALttP a lot. And I agree that X-stats say FFVI belongs, possibly more so than SMW and SMB3. (Plus this eases the burden of calling Super Metroid elite, since ALttP or no ALttP, FFVI did beat SM in fourways.)

Team Rocket Elite posted...

If Crono = Cloud, right now Alucard = Kirby. I really should just give up on Crono > Cloud but I can't helping looking for ways it might work.

If Cloud > Crono, then that puts Peach closer and closer to Kirby.

...I can't believe Peach was the character most screwed by bracket placement.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

If Crono = Cloud, right now Alucard = Kirby. I really should just give up on Crono > Cloud but I can't helping looking for ways it might work.

Only if you assume that Kirby didn't get SFFd/rSFFd/whatever in his match with Bowser. I find that hard to believe.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

If Crono = Cloud, right now Alucard = Kirby. I really should just give up on Crono > Cloud but I can't helping looking for ways it might work.

I'd take Kirby there without blinking?

Yeah, Kirby should be stronger than Alucard which is a point in Crono's favour. The problem is I am blatantly ignoring Bowser possibly SFFing Kirby and that the Euro vote is likely going to change things in Clouds favour over the next few hours.

It's a pink wave, man. As utterly stupid as the reasoning behind "why female characters are overperforming" post that someone, I think it might've been SND, made after Round 1, the actual conclusion was spot on. Female characters have looked stronger. Zelda and Tifa are looking like Noble Nine breakers; Aerith outperformed Squall on Zelda...just yesterday I claimed that this contest, and this latest Pikachu result, has vindicated Charizard for his "awful" 2013, while at the same time being forced to admit that he still looked atrocious in Round 1 this year against Terra.

My personal opinion is that Kirby is right at Bowser's level. So Crono barely edging out Cloud implies that Alucard gets 46% on Kirby and Bowser. Or, to put it another way, Alucard gets 54% on 2B if Crono = Cloud. Wow, maybe Crono does have a chance...in fact, a pretty serious chance. I take back what I said earlier.

C'mon Crono! Keep increasing that percentage!

red sox 777 posted...

Ocarina of Time
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Final Fantasy VII
A Link to the Past
Super Mario 64

I'd agree with a top 6. If we expand it to 10.....

Super Smash Bros. Melee
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Brawl

What in God’s name is Brawl doing on this list??

It’s not even top 20 now. Are you serious with that?

Tifa hasn't increased in strength.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5205-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-cirno-vs-chun
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259-character-battle-ix-division-7-final-samus-vs-l-block-vs

People just kind of ignored 2013.

I would exorcise it if I could. But it beat Melee, so I'm hard pressed to justify putting Melee on there and not Brawl.

Aeris is more or less the same too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5226-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-2-shepard-vs-tharja-vs
(this is back when Shepard was, like, good)

Terra always had the capacity to embarrass Charizard.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5168-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-kirby-vs-terra-vs

The two main female characters that have exceeded expectations are Chun-Li and Zelda. Zelda has obvious reasons to boost, and Chun-Li...no clue.

There's also Amaterasu looking really good.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Registered user result:
Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%

Without rallies, Chrono Trigger really does seem like it would have gotten 64-65%. That's in line with the result it got on FF10 which is normally close to equal to unrallied SSBM.

feels good man

Haste_2 posted...

I wouldn't put Majora's Mask in when it barely edged out Super Metroid.

but then it also did this

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

Two straight Boswer cuts, by the way.

red sox 777 posted...

I would exorcise it if I could. But it beat Melee, so I'm hard pressed to justify putting Melee on there and not Brawl.

Brawl right now would lose to smash 4. Probably even smash bros 64. I would love a melee rematch because it would get doubled. That’s how weak it is now.
It beat Melee when brawl was at its peak popularity wise. But it’s not a historical game people remember. It’s an incremental fighting one. That wasn’t memorable at all.

Why wasn’t it nominated for the last game contest??

Think about that for a second. I’d be amazed if brawl is top 25 actually now.

Who said anything about increasing in strength? Tifa has never really looked bad, which is why it's a shame that she keeps running into Samus and Sephiroth.

I keep wondering how many times we have to get surprised by Final Fantasy females doing well. Well, okay, we weren't surprised by Yuna > Chief in 2013, even though it ranks as the biggest Round 1 upset of all time by sitewide prediction percentage. But we make excuses for Samus underwhelming against Tifa in 2006... really, you know what amazes me the most about Tifa this year? That she actually got a 3-seed. Tifa, Aerith, Rikku, Terra, they've all been underseeded most of the time, when they even make the contests. Tifa didn't in 2007, fresh off her amazing performance in 2006.

I have no idea what to think about SSBB. For the most part the GotD X-Stats were very, very good for predicting match results. Games largely maintained their strength across the time gap. SSBB falling would be a big exception to this but it does have reason to fall by quite a bit.

Yeah, Brawl feels like the kind of game to be popular with people who just hop onto the newest and hottest version. Now that it hasn't been that in quite some time, I can't imagine it'd have that kind of staying power.

It'd still be pretty strong just because it's Smash, but yeah.

LeonhartFour posted...

Haste_2 posted...

I wouldn't put Majora's Mask in when it barely edged out Super Metroid.

but then it also did this

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

Yet again, Leon's inability to see my posts leads to him bringing up something that's already been brought up in the topic!

I think Brawl still retains most of its strength. Even if the Smash fanbase has moved on, a lot of people have nostalgic memories of it.

I would actually take it to be indirectly stronger than Smash 4, which was really hurt by being a Wii U game (and, well, newer instead of older). Smash 4 would crush Brawl 1 v 1 though. Would easily be the biggest case of rSFF we'd ever see.

I think Smash 4 will drop off a lot once Ultimate obsoletes it pretty soon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

This poll is another reason I'm super curious about just how strong SSBB is right now.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

This poll is another reason I'm super curious about just how strong SSBB is right now.

This poll proves how incremental smash has become. Smash 4 was at its peak popularity back then. Give it three years smash ultimate will be.

The only constant is Melee. Which has genuine longevity and real strength.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SexThaNemesis posted...

bwburke94 posted...

show hidden quote(s)

There's no need for excuses anymore. Mega Man lost outright.

Mega Man had more votes though

Not from registered users it didn’t. And that’s a damning statistic.

And according to Black turtle. Pikachu got rallied. Even though it lost non registered votes.

So the definitive way to say someone lose with no rallies at all is registered votes

Mega Man still had more votes though

KamikazePotato posted...

I think Brawl still retains most of its strength. Even if the Smash fanbase has moved on, a lot of people have nostalgic memories of it.

I would actually take it to be indirectly stronger than Smash 4, which was really hurt by being a Wii U game (and, well, newer instead of older). Smash 4 would crush Brawl 1 v 1 though. Would easily be the biggest case of rSFF we'd ever see.

Smash 4 would have crushed a few years back. Not so much now.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

This poll is another reason I'm super curious about just how strong SSBB is right now.

I think that poll could be unreliable because it's not asking you which game is your all-time favorite. It's asking for "best all-time", which isn't the same thing as "all-time favorite". I talked about this difference in the poll question wording in the following post:

http://thengamer.com/stats/1251-1300/1277/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt1277%20Pg2.htm#77

Crono by the hour:

20:00 | 53.60%
21:00 | 54.73%
22:00 | 56.84%
23:00 | 57.16%
00:00 | 56.58%
01:00 | 53.33%
02:00 | 51.65%

It's interesting how the European vote starts dominating the poll about 3 hours earlier now that we start at 7 PM instead of midnight.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Not from registered users it didn’t. And that’s a damning statistic.

And according to Black turtle. Pikachu got rallied. Even though it lost non registered votes.

So the definitive way to say someone lose with no rallies at all is registered votes

Not really.

Say hypothetically a match between two characters goes 110-99 among registered users

It also goes like 250 - 300 among nonregistered without a rally, and 290-300 after the rally

You can lose by a ton among non registered voters, win among registered voters and have a rally bridge some of that gap among the non registered to flip the match.

Here's one more stat.

Brackets correctly calling Pikachu seeing his division: 2281 (31.59%)
Brackets correctly calling Pikachu over Mega Man: 1411 (19.54%)

1411/2281 = 61.86% among brackets that correctly had this matchup predicted in their initial bracket. That's not quite as high as the second chance bracket, but it's still pretty high! I don't think there's any denying that Pikachu was the favorite all along, or rather, if Mega Man was the "favorite", it's only because he had a 100% chance of reaching that match while his opponent could theoretically be any of 16 characters, some of which he'd be favored against (especially the 1-seed of the division, Zero. ) 31.59% isn't bad for a prediction percentage for R4, though, so let's say it's fairly likely it had the plurality. Percentage loss does suggest that Pikachu has been favored in all five matches.

It's a flaw of thinking to wonder why prediction percentages can be so low late. Sure, there are the sure things that keep ridiculous percentages forever, but if you're an 80% favorite in each of your matches, you'll be down to about 41% by Round 4. Even a 90% fave would drop below 50% after round 7 from the cumulative effect of having 10% bled off each round.

And those are still heavy favorites. If you're only a slight favorite in multiple matches, you can get bled down awfully quickly. A 60-40 favorite in every match would be down to 7.78% prediction percentage for round 5.

Pikachu beat Mega Man? Holy crap! And Alcuard is hitting that percentage—we are through the looking glass here.

Also, Bowser feels redeemed. Everyone was down on him, but look at him go. Unless Crono sucks, who really knows!

Yuri_LowelI posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Say what you want it's nice to have matches that are decided in the first hour, every once in a while.

But weve had that for 80% of the matches in the contest. Without Geralt or Tifa. It would have been one boring ass Contest with the odd close match. This contest didnt even come alive until Tifa Beat X. And now weve had a great Legends match with MM and Pikachu.

This is the end game now. Close Matches is what his contest board strives for.

I know that, the post was half sarcastic.

I think Crono is doing enough to lose to Cloud but make it close enough to put the rematch in question.

All part of my plan.

@creativename

Today's match pictures (to be added to the gallery):

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/cloud-f-ange.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/alucard-f-zen.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-f-ange.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-f-nick.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/cloud-b-ange.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/alucard-b-ulti.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-b-menji.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-b-ulti.png

To those saying that pikachu was rallied and is therefore worse than shown- mega man was rallied very hard. A reddit post was at the top of the mega man shbreddit from 9 am eastern until hours after the contest ended and had well over 200 upvotes, none of the Pokemon rally attempts on Reddit had even a third of that many upvotes. I think rallies probably hurt pikachu more than they helped him, especially because multiple people on the Pokemon subreddit said they voted for mega man.

That said, pikachu did get a late rally that helped push him over the top at the end.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77244521
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/240025-pokemon-lets-go-pikachu/77244606

Here are some threads about mega man vs Pikachu match from off-board

So how is Cloud projected to do against Big Boss based on this?

imthestuntman posted...

To those saying that pikachu was rallied and is therefore worse than shown- mega man was rallied very hard. A reddit post was at the top of the mega man shbreddit from 9 am eastern until hours after the contest ended and had well over 200 upvotes, none of the Pokemon rally attempts on Reddit had even a third of that many upvotes. I think rallies probably hurt pikachu more than they helped him, especially because multiple people on the Pokemon subreddit said they voted for mega man.

That said, pikachu did get a late rally that helped push him over the top at the end.

Pikachu definitely had the larger rally over Mega Man from what I can see.

Registered/Anonymous vote results for the final 7 hours of votes

Mega Man vs. Pikachu
Registered Vote Result:
Mega Man - 791 (50.03%)
Pikachu - 790 (49.97%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mega Man - 1348 (47.15%)
Pikachu - 1511 (52.85%)

So this confirms that Pikachu had the larger rally in this match, because Mega Man would have done better with the anonymous users if there had been no rally at all. Mega Man also had rallies of his own, but they were concentrated earlier in the day (between 9:00 AM and 2:30 PM).

@hombad46 posted both the Pikachu and Mega Man rallies and confirmed the Pikachu one had more views but the Mega Man one had more people involved and interacting

Take that info as you will

While these numbers are obviously different from what they were at the end of the match, the current numbers for my reddit rallies are

Mega Man:
2.3k views
213 upvotes
50 comments

Pikachu:
3.7k views
64 upvotes
22 comments

LinkMarioSamus posted...

So how is Cloud projected to do against Big Boss based on this?

64.71% right now.

Who the hell made that Cloud picture? There's artifacts all over his hand and sword hilt

Basically around what Mario got on Big Boss in 2010. Given how bad MGS has looked this contest, probably just further verification that Cloud is much weaker now.