Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1309 GameFAQs Contests
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The_Ctes posted... Seriously stop overusing the word fraud, it makes no sense. Fraud is a fraud. You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
That's probably the most true use of fraud since Mewtwo No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
As a reminder, this is what Cloud did last contest https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7359-finals-bracket-round-1-mega-man-vs-pikachu Got 74% against bad fodder, 3% less than he was projected to in 2010 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5237-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-cloud-vs-frog-vs Did a whopping 2% better on Frog than Luigi did https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5257-character-battle-ix-division-5-final-cloud-vs-squirtle-vs Got Pokemon'd. Cloud is a fraud. Even if he beats Mega Man or Pikachu (and he still very easily could, I'm mostly being dramatic with how confident I sound because it's more fun that way) he's not going to look good doing it. He is not invincible anymore. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Mega
Man whoopin that ass as the clock hit one hour just as I said he would
btw. Wonder how far he needs that lead to go out to survive Europe.
Should be interesting. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm so happy I bracket voted MM despite liking Pokemon more. |
The_Ctes posted... What is this even based on, I surely disagree (except maybe getting the Falcon result through SFF). But hey, we'll find out. Sephiroth got the same result on Amaterasu that Squall did back in 2013. Granted, that was back when Squall didn't suck. 70% on Wesker in a contest where Resident Evil has looked universally unimpressive is...well, unimpressive. Pikachu also did better on Scorpion than Sephiroth did on Captain Falcon, and I probably take Scorpion there. It's definitely not an easy match to call. Ryu is the outlier, not the norm. Frankly that result doesn't jive with a single other thing Sephiroth did this contest. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... 70% on Wesker in a contest where Resident Evil has looked universally unimpressive is...well, unimpressive Jill Valentine looked fine actually. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Guys! You're forgetting Final Fantasy Protagonist Factor (unofficial term regarding choking performances by FF main characters)! The only --and I mean the only-- thing that Cloud has going for him is his presence in Smash. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
I think 250 votes would be a safe(ish) net for Mega Man. Tifa came back from 450 but Pikachu isn't Tifa in the night. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Hey guys. Does anyone know the link for the second chance bracket? It's not on the results page with all the other links. Also... Lopen posted... Mega Man: Oh, you think the Type Advantage is your ally. You merely adopted the Type Advantage. I was born in it, molded by it. that made me lol Character Battle X Current Score: 200/256 Time to wake up, Link. |
Cloud already lost to a Pokemon. Fraud should be reserved for fluke wins we don't expect to see repeated. Actually, it shouldn't be reserved for anything because it's getting lame. Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
The Owner of FF9 posted... Hey guys. Does anyone know the link for the second chance bracket? It's not on the results page with all the other links. Luster found it but it's not working, gotta wait for Allen to fix it. |
The link to view your Second Chance bracket is here (but it doesn't work right now): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_2c_mybracket This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
Oh dear. Character Battle X Current Score: 200/256 Time to wake up, Link. |
Sephiroth being on past Squall level sounds right. |
Lopen posted... KamikazePotato posted...70% on Wesker in a contest where Resident Evil has looked universally unimpressive is...well, unimpressive I thought she looked better before Fox failed to show up in the Aeris match. She doesn't look terrible or anything but I kind of expected more considering her pedigree. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Cloud already lost to a Pokemon. Fraud should be reserved for fluke wins we don't expect to see repeated. The fraud joke has been unfunny for quite a while I'd say ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png |
What joke? I think if people are saying that Cloud has a 0% chance to lose to opponents he should be scared of, it's a pretty decent time to bust out the word. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I feel like we established that Draven is the One True Fraud, so it's not appropriate to use the term anymore. Character Battle X Current Score: 200/256 Time to wake up, Link. |
I
dont think Cloud is a guarantee to get anywhere, which is why I
seriously considered Crono against him. But he's been at risk to lose to
non-Link Noble 9ers for eight years. Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
Always good to see my bad jokes appreciated by someone other than me once in a while No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
think Cloud is one of the harderst N9ers to predict their strength
here. He could beat anyone not called Link or lose to anyone not called
Sephiroth. |
After
seeing Tifa, Sephiroth, and hell even Aeris, I have maximum faith in
Cloud to hold the line. Random other FF characters tanking doesn't
matter when FFVII has looked pretty much completely fine the whole
contest. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Another comparison on Sephiroth: Sephiroth (2010c) has a strength of 44.65 against Base Link. Ryu (2010c) has a strength of 33.02 against Base Link. Sephiroth63.02%53,628 Ryu36.98%31,464 Sephiroth wins with 63.02% of the vote! This is an extremely accurate projection. Ryu lost to Cloud who lost to Link. Sephiroth lost to Snake who lost to Cloud. No SFF. Sephiroth 60-40ing Ryu isn't this impossible result that indicates a return to form. It mostly indicates that he's not going to suck worse than he did in 2013. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 11/26/2018 5:25:16 PM) |
KamikazePotato posted... but Pikachu isn't Tifa in the night. Yeah I know. Backlog:
Splatterhouse 3 (GEN). Last finished: Splatterhouse 2 (GEN).
Splatterhouse: Wanpaku Graffiti (NES). Friday the 13th (C64).
Splatterhouse (ARC). |
Tifa
and Aeris have been static in strength for years. I don't think their
results indicate anything regarding Cloud or Sephiroth. Tifa probably
beats Luigi every year since her contest debut. Heck, Tifa was (more or
less) the one to expose Sephiroth in 2010 and show that he was mortal. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
60% on Ryu also doesn't strike me as some amazing result. Bowser got 59% on Ryu back in the day. Sephiroth got 61% on Mario. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
60%
on Ryu is fine. 2005 Bowser vs Ryu isn't really what I'd call a result
that you'd replicate from year to year. Using it to smear a 60% on him
is misleading. Sonic only got 57% on Ryu one year before that. Samus
only got 57% on him two years before that. Mega Man only got 59% on him
the year after that. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
In fact, let's look at Sephiroth's projected results against all his 2018 opponents in 2010 and 2013. 2010 Sephiroth vs. Wesker: 73.52% Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon: 68.76% Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu: 68.80% Sephiroth vs. Ryu: 63.02% 2013 Sephiroth vs. Wesker: 69.48% Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon: 63.47% Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu: 62.27% Sephiroth vs. Ryu: 58.22% 2018 Sephiroth vs. Wesker: 70.28% Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon: 64.93% Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu: 61.37% Sephiroth vs. Ryu: 60.26% He looks slightly better than he did in 2013, but not by much. The notion that Sephiroth has had some big return to form is a false narrative stemming from our pre-contest expectations that FF7 might do even worse than it did in 2013. People breathed a sigh of relief when Sephiroth didn't tank further but he's only marginally better. And just for funsies: he loses to both Pikachu and Mega Man in the 2013 stats. For extra funsies: if you think all stats are dumb and should be ignored, Cloud already lost to a Pokemon. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
With
the way this is going for Ganondorf, is it possible he falls below 20%
before the match is over? He's been giving up percent for awhile now. You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
Lopen posted... 60% on Ryu is fine. 2005 Bowser vs Ryu isn't really what I'd call a result that you'd replicate from year to year. Using it to smear a 60% on him is misleading. Sonic only got 57% on Ryu one year before that. Samus only got 57% on him two years before that. Mega Man only got 59% on him the year after that. Ryu isn't as strong as he in the past. He looked iffy in 2010 and 2013. It's fine but if people overestimating what the result means. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Using
2010 Ryu is exactly what makes Sephiroth look only slightly weaker than
in 2010, or maybe even not because Chun-Li looked a lot better and/or
if you do believe in a Smash boost (which has definitely been a thing
for sure). Even though you say that is an extremely accurate projection,
the raw x-stats have Seph going a bit lower on Ryu. You can make
basically the exact same projections with Falcon, since Cloud faced him
in 2010 as well and it adds up, so you're definitely giving Falcon less
credit than you should. This is again before considering how
Nintendo/Smash has looked this contest. Also, at no contest would Squall have put up the numbers Seph did this contest, Seph is surely not on past Squall level. If Pikachu can catch a good rally, then yeah, Cloud should be scared. Squirtle had a really strong rally and that match had a third entrant. Plus, Pokemon was destroying that contest. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to BKSheikah, the winner of the Best Year in Gaming contest. |
I would say Ryu looked more like he was having even more of a return to form this year than Sephiroth did though. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Link can't even quadruple Ganondorf. Link is a fraud. Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality. |
That's
Sephiroth, though. Cloud beat Snake who beat Sephiroth in 2010. If
Cloud took a similar fall to Sephiroth since 2010, Cloud should still be
able to challenge Samus and beat Mega Man. 2013 may say Sephiroth is
stronger than Cloud but to me that comes off as a red flag that
something is going wrong with the 2013 stats. This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
OrangeCrush980 posted... Link can't even quadruple Ganondorf. Link is a fraud. Contest Frauds and Discussion. You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
So
I guessed the adjusted x-stats do consider FFVII getting anti-votes,
since they have Sephiroth doing noticeably better against Clould's
opponents. Checked and saw they also have Cloud doing noticeably better,
so it makes sense I suppose. But since Sephiroth faced the same two
opponents this contests and there's no reason to think that the FFVII
anti-voting has weakened from 2010, it's the raw x-stats that should be
used if you want to make a fair comparison. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to BKSheikah, the winner of the Best Year in Gaming contest. |
Uhh Pikachu is cutting fast Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! |
ctesjbuvf posted... Even though you say that is an extremely accurate projection, the raw x-stats have Seph going a bit lower on Ryu. You can make basically the exact same projections with Falcon, since Cloud faced him in 2010 as well and it adds up, so you're definitely giving Falcon less credit than you should. I'm not sure where you're getting those stats. Using raw still puts Sephiroth's result this contest at 2% lower than it should be, and 2010 Cloud is projected to get like 57-58% on 2018 Sephiroth using Ryu and Falcon. That's not 'a bit' lower. This is again before considering how Nintendo/Smash has looked this contest. This is another false narrative. Here's the Nintendo characters that looked appreciably stronger this contest: Donkey Kong Zelda Weak fodder who had a reason to boost just from exposure Here's the ones that looks about the same: Everyone else Nintendo did good in Round 1 but afterwards they did about okay. Smash didn't cause some universal Nintendo boost. It mostly just made chumps like King. K Rool look like they were worth more than nothing. Also, at no contest would Squall have put up the numbers Seph did this contest, Seph is surely not on past Squall level. Well, yeah. I'm just using it as an example that it's an unimpressive result. Well, yeah. I was just using it as an example that his result against Ammy wasn't impressive. Lopen posted... I would say Ryu looked more like he was having even more of a return to form this year than Sephiroth did though. This is a good point, but I'm on the fence about how much his earlier results imply. He mostly beat up fodder, and fodder is variable. To bring up Amaterasu again - Ryu is projected to barely beat her. (seriously, what is up with that dog) Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 11/26/2018 5:53:20 PM) |
hell yeah, pikachu time beginning >_______________> |
https://media.giphy.com/media/oiF80fmRHn1rq/giphy.gif Character Battle X Current Score: 200/256 Time to wake up, Link. |
"My problem is that I push Mega Man away and then hate him for leaving." Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi |
Smash
sure boosted basically all characters that were not in Smash before but
is now. Maybe Ryu looking like he made some kind of return is partly a
cause of that. We saw it happen to Snake and Sonic all those years ago, I
find it hard to believe it shouldn't help Cloud. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to BKSheikah, the winner of the Best Year in Gaming contest. |
KamikazePotato posted... Nintendo did good in Round 1 but afterwards they did about okay. Smash didn't cause some universal Nintendo boost. It mostly just made chumps like King. K Rool look like they were worth more than nothing. The theory of a universal Nintendo boost wasn't because of Smash 4, but rather Nintendo's resurgence on the site with the release of the Switch. The 2013 contest happened during a time when Nintendo was at rock bottom after the site abandoned the Wii and never fully embraced the Wii U. So there was reason to believe in a universal Nintendo boost. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
ctesjbuvf posted... Smash sure boosted basically all characters that were not in Smash before but is now. Maybe Ryu looking like he made some kind of return is partly a cause of that. We saw it happen to Snake and Sonic all those years ago, I find it hard to believe it shouldn't help Cloud. Snake is a phenomenon that will never be replicated. Sonic has retained none of the (very temporary) strength he gained from his Smash announcement Smash. Brawl came out in 2008 and it was probably the worst year Sonic has ever had. I would entertain the notion of Cloud and Ryu had been announced much more recently, but that was like, 3 years ago. The shininess has worn off. If nothing else - Mega Man today is showing how much a Smash inclusion means if you're already an established character. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 11/26/2018 6:03:43 PM) |
The Owner of FF9 posted... https://media.giphy.com/media/oiF80fmRHn1rq/giphy.gif Pika-pika chu-chu, pika-pika chu-chu... Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
I
don't think it's fair to compare someone like Mega Man who is a
Nintendo character in all but technicality to a guy like Cloud (or Solid
Snake, the name you're conveniently leaving off) No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I edited Snake back in the post! I forgot to address him! I might be proven wrong, but I've stuck to my guns on this one for months. I don't think Smash matters for characters that are already highly-established. Sonic is the same, Mega Man is fighting for his life against Pikachu, and Ryu just got brought down to earth by Sephiroth. Cloud will benefit a bit more because he is very non-Nintendo, but it's just not the same as it would have been if he was announced back in 2008. Snake's announcement was an event. Cloud's was a surprising addition, but he was still like..the 5th third-party character to be included in Smash. It's not as special, and unlike Snake back in the day, he doesn't have as much untapped potential. Not on GameFAQs, where FF7 is extremely well-known by basically everyone. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Hell yeah. My Link, my Ganon, and my Mega Man background. I only pull rank with pics once per contest and I did it with that Link picture. Coolest he's ever looked. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
I
honestly think the biggest benefit of Cloud in Smash is he might get a
lot less anti-votes just because people will stop treating him as the
enemy since he's a fun fighter in the game they like. Let's get Master Chief in Smash next please No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
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