Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1309 GameFAQs Contests

X-stats have always been a hack for relatively close matches. We've honestly been burned by them enough to already know that's the truth.

they predicted Tidus/Shadow almost perfectly...!

Main benefit of x-stats is for people like Ulti who don't realize that getting over 45% on Sonic makes you strong.

I still like to think of X-Stats as a general approximation of how strong characters are (within 3-5% or so depending on SFF overlap and matchup) and definitely shouldn't always base things purely on math or else you get burned and thats assuming characters are relatively consistent which obviously isnt the case for lots of character this year

LusterSoldier posted...

Link versus Cloud posted...

Even though the overall average is that low, the average for round 4 was close to 30,000 per match wasn't it? Isn't that what we should be comparing the final 16 to since it will be bigger matches with 2 per day format like those? I was thinking something closer to the 900,000 range.

For the tiebreaker question, you need to put in a guess that does not factor in the registered user bonus. We were averaging about 20000 votes per match before the registered user bonus was applied to the raw votes. I guess the later rounds will probably have slightly higher vote totals, but I think it's pretty unlikely we'll average more than 23000 raw votes per match for the entire Legends/Loser bracket combined.

My recommended guessing range for the tiebreaker question is somewhere between 610000 and 700000.

Oh haha I didn't realize it wasn't including the bonus that makes more sense, thanks.

X-stats are a nice baseline but those numbers lack a lot of context.

The rare times I do well in these contests I generally look at past matches and see how debated characters did before and how their competition fared in other matches to get a rough guideline, basically reviewing the polls themselves rather than the actual x-stats. Other times like this contest I either go by gut or do a quick runthrough and forget to go through again and bomb.

X-stats are better at translating the past than predicting the future. There's a lot of good to be had by them, but there's not a person here who hasn't been burnt by them before and everyone realizes they're not some perfect way to lazily make our brackets.

Neither is looking at the BOP, neither is looking at the Guru favorites, neither is looking at geographical trends, and neither is looking at every past poll.

We've got a bunch of good-ass tools. X-stats are among them...but then, a hammer alone shouldn't build your house, and it definitely won't make your house uniquely better than the rest of your neighborhood.

LusterSoldier posted...

Polls for the next several days:

11/26/2018 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea. This one could be related to the Second Chance Contest.

Looks like it's not related to the Second Chance Contest, so we'll never know what percentage of the site filled out a bracket for that contest.

LusterSoldier posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

Polls for the next several days:

11/26/2018 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea. This one could be related to the Second Chance Contest.

Looks like it's not related to the Second Chance Contest, so we'll never know what percentage of the site filled out a bracket for that contest.

I prefer it like this
Seeing 60%+ people voting for "I don't care about the contest" is always discouraging

Nanis23 posted...

Seeing 60%+ people voting for "I don't care about the contest" is always discouraging

Every single contest related bracket poll has been like this, even going back to 2002. So it wouldn't be unexpected to see 60%+ people not interested in filling out a Second Chance Bracket.

so uh

how about that contest

Who's ready for Pikachu > Mega Man

I would like that.

My body is ready for Mega Man to 60-40 Pikachu.

https://i.imgur.com/K80RRlR.png

Here's a table that shows the year of the first meetings between each pair of noble niners, and which have yet to occur (hopefully I got everything right - this is 1v1 only, no bonus matches). We still need 8/38 pairings:

Chrono vs Cloud
Chrono vs Samus
Chrono vs Sephiroth
Cloud vs Mega Man
Link vs Snake
Mario vs Sonic
Mega Man vs Samus
Sephiroth vs Sonic

I was going to question why you said Link never met Link until I saw this "hopefully I got everything right - this is 1v1 only, no bonus matches"

His name is Crono dude

https://i.imgtc.com/hMfcSEL.png

This should work...

Chrono Trigger is the game.
Crono is the name.

Safer_777 posted...

Chrono Trigger is the game.
Crono is the name.

They only had 5 letters for the localized version. There is no logical reason for his name to be spelled differently. Also:

https://i.imgtc.com/14Dld0h.png

Why not put Rockman too?

Very cool chart.

looking forward to Kuraudo vs Chrono

scaryice posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Chrono Trigger is the game.
Crono is the name.

They only had 5 letters for the localized version. There is no logical reason for his name to be spelled differently. Also:

https://i.imgtc.com/14Dld0h.png

If you read the Katakana literally it's "Ku ro no" so technically it can go either way

Google translate just found the word that most likely word that makes sense in grammatical English but localization can change anything.

We'll probably get either Mega Man or Crono against Cloud.

I suppose Link vs. Snake could happen, but I really don't find it much more likely than Mario vs. Sonic.

Man, I really want to take Seph > Samus but I don't have the courageousness.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Man, I really want to take Seph > Samus but I don't have the courageousness.

I took all the upsets that I want. I figure if they happen I wanna be the one who gets the points for them, not someone else.

Plus I went very cookie in the first bracket and got burned by it, I might as well try to call the amazing results myself this time.

what time does the next match start?

SlugSh0t posted...

what time does the next match start?

4 hours and 10 min from now.

thanks

Well I do my half-yearly check-in at GameFAQs and what do you know! A contest! And it's not being overran by rabid League of Legends hordes or subjugated by a Reign of Poke-terror. In fact, looking through the results, what stands out to me is how normal the results are. Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda - just think what Link's gonna do when he's let loose!

Kotetsu534 posted...

Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda

augh my heart

Has anyone found the link to the match pics yet, or have they not been uploaded? I know Luster is usually pretty good at finding these things early.

Match CXXI: (1) Link vs. (4) Ganondorf

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Link - 2013
Round 1: 72.67% against Isaac (15.36%) and Tingle (11.97%)
Round 2: 60.05% against Raiden (22.09%) and Yoshi (17.86%)
Round 3: 44.02% against Draven (44.65%) and Commander Shepard (11.34%)

Ganondorf
Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40%
Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09%
Defeated Dante, 56.40% - 43.60%
Defeated Vivi, 51.96% - 48.04%

Analysis

After a break we are back and now the big hitters are here. Ganondorf’s reward for winning his division is to face Link, a bit cruel. We all saw what happened in 2004 where Link SFF Ganondorf so badly that he ended up with a lower direct percentage than CATS. The only debate in this match is whether or not Link can repeat that feat.

Despite Breath of the Wild I feel Link will not reach those numbers. While Link has built some distance between himself and the number two in this site, the rest of the field has gotten closer to him. Before it was only Cloud and Sephiroth that could break 40% on him, now I can see around half a dozen characters that could break 40% before SFF and a lot more that could avoid getting doubled. Link is still the dominant force, but he isn’t quite that dominant.

This has also weakened his ability to SFF Nintendo characters. In 2013, Tingle held up rather well though you could argue that he benefitted from joke votes. Yoshi went from 18.26% in 2004 to 22.93% in 2013. I still expect quite a beating, just not as badly. At least for Ganondorf he’ll have the loser’s bracket to save his (adjusted) x-stat value.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Link > Ganondorf

charmander6000’s Prediction: Link wins, 85.74% - 14.26%




Match CXXII: (8) Mega Man vs. (7) Pikachu

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Mega Man - 2013
Round 1: 55.28% against Magikarp (31.98%) and Geno (12.74%)
Round 2: 56.67% against Jill Valentine (23.08%) and Kratos (20.25%)
Round 3: 40.21% against Charizard (40.17%) and Zero (19.62%)
Round 4: 33.32% against Samus Aran (38.48%) and Pokemon Trainer Red (28.20%)

Pikachu
Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59%
Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59%
Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20%
Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44%

Analysis

I’ve been getting that close, but not enough vibe in this match. Pikachu had a great contest so far and has placed himself into the conversation of being the strongest non-Noble Nine character. While other Pokemon characters were unsurprisingly brought back down to Earth, Pikachu maintained his performances from 2010 and 2013. Sadly, when I look at his performances against Yoshi and Zero, I can see Mega Man doing at least just as good as Pikachu did.

One idea that has been floating around since 2005 was that Pikachu and the other division winners have had time to build momentum while the Elite Eight characters are starting off cold. I don’t think that’s going to be true outside of rare cases like Charizard in 2010 or even Geralt here where they were already getting a bandwagon effect. Plus, the six-day break has likely killed any minor momentum the characters may have built. If there is some kind of an effect, I could see it effecting the winner of this match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man > Yoshi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 53.63% - 46.37%

LeonhartFour posted...

Kotetsu534 posted...

Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda

argh my quad

There we go.

So, who else took Zelda over Sonic?

I think Zelda > Snake is possible. I see Sonic 60-40ing her and it's not because Sonic is that much stronger than Snake.

Zelda > Sonic is the favourite in the BOP. I ended up going for it as well.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Zelda > Sonic is the favourite in the BOP. I ended up going for it as well.

People are definitely overcompensating for Zelda's boost and/or Squall's fall. Sonic will win that.

Yeah, Zelda was brought back down to Earth after Aerith, but I'd still give her a good chance at the upset.

It also helps Sonic that Knuckles/Shadow/Tails performed well in the contest. We'll get a better look after Sonic/Auron.

Safer_777 posted...

Chrono Trigger is the game.
Crono is the name.

Sonic's the name.

Speed's my game.

i hope megaman loses

scaryice posted...

https://i.imgtc.com/hMfcSEL.png

This should work...

Wait... Are you telling me Mario vs. Sonic has never happened before?

Not that it would be close, but still! Imagine that match back in 2008!

Correct. It has never happened. There's never even really been a good chance for it to happen because they're usually not in the same section of the bracket.

BTW, do we have the next matches' pics available?

@LusterSoldier

Do you know what the next poll ID is?

Or if anyone else knows they can answer.

Advokaiser posted...

BTW, do we have the next matches' pics available?

I don't know. I'm sure they've been uploaded by now, but I can't find them through URL guessing. It seems like we will have to wait for the next matches to start so we can figure out the exact URL structure for the later match pictures.

creativename posted...

@LusterSoldier

Do you know what the next poll ID is?

7358

We are also restarting the contest with 2 matches per day.

Should be 7358 and 7359

LusterSoldier posted...

creativename posted...

@LusterSoldier

Do you know what the next poll ID is?

7358

We are also restarting the contest with 2 matches per day.

Thanks.

Is my site loading slowly for anyone else? Or is it just me?