Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1309 GameFAQs Contests
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So we totally ignore LFF from the SNES poll? Ok then 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Nanis23 posted... So we totally ignore LFF from the SNES poll? Ok then Oh, no, I've acknowledged that too. But even in 1v1s, CT has never lost to an SNES game, though it was close with ALTTP. "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. |
well every game is getting LFF'd |
So
I've been reading the stats topic from the Link/Cloud 2010 final today.
There were a lot of people arguing that Link was a 99% lock to win any
contest going forward, that only a perfect storm of highly unusual
circumstances could stop him. Well, it's more than 8 years later, and
Link hasn't won a single additional contest in his own name. The best
victory he's had since was a GOTD contest, and that was almost 8 years
ago. 2011 was the last time Link/LoZ won anything in any format.
Link's win percentage since that Link/Cloud match is 50% at best, and 0%
at worst, depending on how you want to count the different formats. But we can say that rarely, if ever, have people in this topic been more wrong than the people who said Link had a 99% chance of winning any contest. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
red sox 777 posted... There were a lot of people arguing that Link was a 99% lock to win any contest going forward, that only a perfect storm of highly unusual circumstances could stop him. Sounds like they were entirely correct! "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima BKSheikah won Guru, but you know that. |
man red sox really can spin any narrative |
Yeah, I still stand by my 99% chance. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
...... Do people have a different definition of 99% or something? The probability of something big enough happening to dethrone Link is obviously way way higher than 1%. Even before 2010 that was true but after he's hardly won anything at all. If you mean Link has a 99% chance of winning unless something happens to make him lose, well that's obviously true. And completely tautological. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
what are Link's odds of winning if no unusual outside circumstances occur? and Link's "hardly won anything at all" because this is literally only the second Character Battle we've had since 2010 |
oh man Pikachu just showed up on the Thanksgiving Day parade watch out Mega Man Macy's parade boost incoming |
LeonhartFour posted... man red sox really can spin any narrative Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
LeonhartFour posted... what are Link's odds of winning if no unusual outside circumstances occur? Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
considering
Link has only lost 3 times in 16 years and only one of them has come as
a result of the character being naturally stronger those would be
unusual circumstances |
I
mean if Link loses you can always call it unusual, so Link's winrate in
"normal" circumstances is not particularly interesting or coherent.
Link's winrate across all contests is obviously way below 99% and if we
ran 100 more contests, he would not win anything close to 99 of them. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
all right I guess you're just not going to give a straight answer |
Your
question can't be answered unless you can give a definition of unusual
that isn't tied to outcomes (since Link losing can be unusual by
definition). September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
you know what question people are trying to ask but you just choose to be evasive for whatever the reason what are the chances someone has enough natural strength to beat Link this year? |
LeonhartFour posted... you know what question people are trying to ask but you just choose to be evasive for whatever the reason 20%? Link won 6 out of 7 character battles that didn't involve anything super weird, and it's been a long time since the last time we've seen him in action, so 20% seems fair. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
In 2007 L-Block was the only character to get a rally strong enough to defeat Link (1/127 chance) In 2013 Draven, Mewtwo and Solid Snake got rallies strong enough to defeat Link, though the later two was only a result of Draven, but let's keep them (3/242 chance) The other 7 contests had no rallies strong enough to defeat Link (0/577 chance) Even if you throw in characters that might be legitimate stronger than Link (Cloud, Sephiroth, Solid Snake, Crono), I still stand by my 99% chance of Link victory. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 (edited 11/22/2018 8:26:22 AM) |
That's not the question. We're talking about the chance of the field beating Link, not any single particular character. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
That is the entire field in terms of rallying, am I missing someone? CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
What do you mean by L-Block having a 1/127 chance of beating Link? And hint, try doing your analysis for Cloud. If you end up with Cloud having a 98% chance of winning the contest, you're doing something wrong. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! (edited 11/22/2018 8:32:40 AM) |
I mean there was a 1/127 chance of any character that could defeat Link through rallying, if you only consider 2007. It's similar for all characters, rallying is unlikely outside of small ones in close matches which Link typically won't be part of one. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
charmander6000 posted... I mean there was a 1/127 chance of any character that could defeat Link through rallying, if you only consider 2007. But there's 127 characters, so the odds of none of them succeeding would be (126/127)^127. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
Probability is dumb in this kind of thing. |
red sox 777 posted... Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. red sox 777 posted... Link won 6 out of 7 character battles that didn't involve anything super weird Is super weird like unusual? Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
red sox 777 posted... I mean if Link loses you can always call it unusual, so Link's winrate in "normal" circumstances is not particularly interesting or coherent. Link's winrate across all contests is obviously way below 99% and if we ran 100 more contests, he would not win anything close to 99 of them. I think we need SBAllen to test this. 4 character contests a year for 25 years. Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality. |
Again,
I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka
beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all
characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to
be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests)
it's closer to 1/300. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
charmander6000 posted... Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. What? So you're saying a 1/127 chance has happened in 2 out of 9 contests? September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
HaRRicH posted... red sox 777 posted...Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. Something like that, but it's Leonhart's terminology that he's insisting on, not mine. As I said, I consider the whole concept incoherent unless someone can put together a better definition. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
you know what people mean because you knew which contests were the exceptions without me having to say so (edited 11/22/2018 9:04:34 AM) |
red sox 777 posted... charmander6000 posted...Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. ~1/300, but yes. Looks like we've been (un)lucky. CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
Too many advanced metrics Whiskey Nick on his cell phone "Every man's heart one day beats its final beat." -Warrior |
I have some opinions for future contests. 1)Best character that has appeared in Smash franchise. 2)Best video game company. 3)Worst video game(only games that are eligible are the ones that have under 50 score in Metacritic) Which you would prefere? So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
"worst" anything is a bad idea |
i don't think i ever want a contest that's going to be 90% nintendo vs. nintendo matches and link is still eligible to win it Born to lose, live to win! |
LeonhartFour posted... "worst" anything is a bad idea What about worst GameFAQs user Maybe I would be able to win something for once in my life 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Character of the decade 2B for champion? CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 |
@charmander6000 I actually like this idea. Characters that have debuted from 2010 to 2019! So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
charmander6000 posted... Character of the decade @MetalmindStats this could be a good next project? drooling while eating |
Nanis23 posted... LeonhartFour posted..."worst" anything is a bad idea You might win a match or two but there are too many luminaries who will take the title from you. "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima BKSheikah won Guru, but you know that. |
Safer_777 posted... @charmander6000 I actually like this idea. Characters that have debuted from 2010 to 2019! Hmm... Linkle? |
charmander6000 posted... red sox 777 posted...charmander6000 posted...show hidden quote(s)Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. The easier explanation is that your arbitrarily chosen number of 1/300 is off, not that we've been ridiculously unlucky to have that chance hit twice in 9 times. I submit the evidence, the best we have, suggests the probability of this kind of event is around 2/9. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
@ZeldaTPLink Yeah! Link with t***! I support this! So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
The
probability of a 1/300 event hitting twice in 9 tries is around 1/3000.
Very strong evidence against this being the true probability of such
an event happening. Further proof is that no one here acts surprised anymore when there is a big rally. But if people really believed it was a 1% chance, people would be a lot more surprised. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
I'm not sure of much in a Character of the Decade contest, but I'm certain Linkle doesn't win. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
I
am trying to think who would be strong. Guess 2B or something? I mean
do we have any character in this contest that is after 2010 and has some
power? So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
Venom Snake "We'll tell the customers that the features promised are in a place outside of Heaven now" -- GransonEx |
Even
a character of the decade contest for the previous decade doesn't have
much for strong characters. There's the FFX and KH casts, Dante, Kratos,
and...? All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. (edited 11/22/2018 3:54:46 PM) |
2B, apparently Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
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