Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308 GameFAQs Contests
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I'm
going for it because I feel like I'll be more upset if I pick Sonic and
he loses than if I pick Zelda and she loses... it's like at least I
lived a little. I dreamt a dream. For your BK_Sheikah00. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
Considering what happened to the rest of the MGS cast, it's quite possible Snake's fallen since 2013. Snake (2013c) has a strength of 47.55 against Base Link. The Boss (2013c) has a strength of 29.49 against Base Link. Snake wins with 68.99% of the vote! All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
I
don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle?
But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket
the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if
it's just a one-off? Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
Snake has one pretty huge reason to hold on that literally nobody else in his series does |
TheOneAboveAll posted... I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once you want someone to have to do it twice? |
LeonhartFour posted... TheOneAboveAll posted...I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? yes so the novelization can include this: Crono: *panting* I've... I've finally done it. The tyrant has fallen, the false idol has crumbled, now the world will know... the true Hero of Time... Thanks, everyone... *Crono smiles at the distant figures of Alucard, Tifa, and Cloud* I. Hear. A. Sound.*Suddenly, the Song of Time begins playing and time reverses, healing Link* xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
TheOneAboveAll posted... I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? What are you talking about? Link will win the entire bracket and then be up agasint the winner of the "losers" bracket He'll most likely face Mario Twice or Mario once and Cloud the 2nd time. Although if Seph goes back in time we could have a boring Seph/Link final like 2006. But Cloud should prevail losers and face Link again only to lose again. |
I'm going for a freaky bracket where Tifa beats Cloud and Zelda beats Link and we have a Zelda > Tifa final. It would make me laugh. Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi |
ctesjbuvf posted... Zelda vs. Sonic is the only match where I can really see a potential NN defeat. Sonic looked decent in 2010.....until he faced Link. He looked like he would struggle to even beat Bowser 1v1 in 2013. I kind of agree and I think he's lucky allen put Seph in the main bracket and not Sonic(who deserved to go in based on N9 strength from past) |
Pikachu and MM could be really close. Wouldn't be surprised if Pikachu pulls off the upset. Tifa coming through to get me 9th on the leaderboard woo. I'll enjoy it the week this lasts cause my Tifa > Samus pick is going to permanently drop me off it lol. |
Yuri_LowelI posted... He looked like he would struggle to even beat Bowser 1v1 in 2013. he beat Bowser pretty handily actually although I wouldn't take anything from that match at face value |
also interesting poll to consider for Mega Man/Pikachu https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-3-runners-up-battle yes yes I know bonus match, doesn't count, etc. etc. etc. but it suggests Mega Man would beat Pikachu unless he gets like 95% of Mewtwo's votes |
Holy
crap, I completely forgot about that match. So not only did Mewtwo run
through elites and the N9 during that contest, he also put up 57% on
Pikachu for good measure. The fraudulence knows no ends! Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
Division 1 Ganondorf – 50.00% Vivi – 48.04% Dante – 43.60% Donkey Kong – 43.26% Chun-Li – 41.09% Leon Kennedy – 38.35% Tidus – 37.26% Spyro the Dragon – 36.02% Lightning – 29.98% Cuphead – 24.77% Yu Narukami – 24.13% Dragonborn – 24.02% Aya Brea – 23.59% Neku Sakuraba – 21.40% Victor Sullivan – 19.08% Chloe Price – 15.48% Division 2 Pikachu – 50.00% Yoshi – 45.20% Zero – 43.44% Knuckles the Echidna – 38.10% Kratos – 36.59% Wario – 34.53% Scorpion – 33.59% Zidane Tribal – 32.92% Master Hand – 26.96% Velvet Crowe – 26.55% Monika – 24.47% Shantae – 23.26% Noctis Lucis Caelum – 22.89% Primrose – 22.43% James Sunderland – 20.69% John Marston – 19.63% Division 3 Alucard – 50.00% Pokemon Trainer Red – 46.19% Sora – 45.36% Big Boss – 44.18% Princess Peach – 43.19% Crash Bandicoot – 41.64% Kefka – 40.56% Yuna – 40.38% Ridley – 38.29% Cecil Harvey – 38.16% Bomberman – 32.59% L-Block – 32.29% Ryo Hazuki – 28.05% Kazuma Kiryu – 25.50% Neptune – 22.80% Godot – 22.16% Division 4 Bowser – 50.00% Kirby – 46.14% Charizard – 43.45% 2B – 41.81% Terra Branford – 41.02% Ness – 38.70% Shadow the Hedgehog – 36.17% Phoenix Wright – 29.24% Ike – 28.86% Isaac – 27.42% Chris Redfield – 25.19% Guile – 23.49% Gordon Freeman – 22.61% Joel – 21.74% Estelle Bright – 19.40% Cayde-6 – 18.56% Division 5 Zelda – 50.00% Aerith Gainsborough – 37.81% Squall Leonhart – 36.68% Fox McCloud – 35.77% Jill Valentine – 32.83% Waluigi – 32.19% Captain Toad – 30.26% The Boss – 29.30% Shovel Knight – 28.70% Garrus Vakarian – 26.39% Ramza Beoulve – 26.06% Metal Sonic – 25.48% Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67% D. Va – 20.37% Aloy – 19.18% Hat Kid – 17.69% Division 6 Auron – 50.00% Geralt – 46.86% Bayonetta – 46.04% Simon Belmont – 44.81% Vincent Valentine – 44.20% Pac-Man – 44.13% Ryu Hayabusa – 44.10% Sub-Zero – 43.29% Magus – 42.53% Rosalina – 41.21% Lucina – 34.56% Riku – 32.77% Shulk – 32.41% Claire Redfield – 29.21% Joker/Ren Amamiya – 27.12% Sans – 25.27% Division 7 Tifa Lockhart – 50.00% Mega Man X – 49.82% Luigi – 48.64% Mewtwo – 41.90% Frog – 37.33% Revolver Ocelot – 31.48% GlaDOS – 31.44% King Dedede – 31.17% Miles “Tails” Prower – 29.52% Geno – 26.81% Master Chief – 26.29% Nathan Drake – 25.55% Miles Edgeworth – 21.92% Isabelle – 19.28% Monokuma – 17.64% Goro Majima – 16.29% Division 8 Sephiroth – 50.00% Ryu – 39.74% Amaterasu – 38.63% Captain Falcon – 35.07% Lara Croft – 34.84% Albert Wesker – 29.72% Richter Belmont – 27.78% KOS-MOS – 27.76% Commander Shepard – 26.59% King K. Rool – 25.93% Ellie – 25.29% Lloyd Irving – 25.08% Aqua – 23.66% Metal Man – 22.37% Quiet – 16.98% Draven – 9.16% |
LeonhartFour posted... Draven – 9.16% lmao You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Holy crap, I completely forgot about that match. So not only did Mewtwo run through elites and the N9 during that contest, he also put up 57% on Pikachu for good measure. Apart from pikachu. Pokemon in general shouldn’t have any weight in regards to consistent strength. One minute squirtle is hanging with cloud the next hes not even nominated to be in the contest. Pokemon’s will come and go and have different strength due to bandwagoning. Mewtwo and charizard are good examples of a “let’s just vote for the sake of a Pokemon bandwagon” entrants. Now they’re just low midcard fodder. I guarantee for next character battle if we have a new entrant like a blastoise or someone from gen one that has never made it they’ll go on a run and beat some strong characters only to disappear next contest. |
Thanks for posting the full division stats! Fortune favors the bold. -Vergil |
just for fun here is what Sephiroth would have to get on each #1 finisher in order for someone to finish below Draven Ganondorf - 70.41% Pikachu - 76.67% Alucard - 79.33% Bowser - 75.40% Zelda - 74.11% Auron - 81.88% Tifa - 71.88% |
Is
it possible for something really stupid like
Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus
1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth
actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that
three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead
of something so cookie cutter. |
also for fun if the MMX/Ryu proportion from 2013 holds up (spoilers it probably doesn't because LOL Draven) then Tifa would be expected to get 46.60% on Sephiroth |
tgs2 posted... Is it possible for something really stupid like Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus 1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead of something so cookie cutter. Probably. Samus has proven to be stronger than Mario in contests indirectly. Depends how close Seph/Mario is If it’s a 51/49 in favour of Seph. I could see samus besting Seph by the same margin. But it’s a big if. I know sephiroth has looked impressive but This isn’t 2005 anymore. Mario is just on another level now. |
And some more fun with numbers! If Zelda = Sephiroth: Ryu gets 52.43% on Aerith Ammy gets 52.52% on Squall Fox gets 50.98% on Captain Falcon Lara gets 52.88% on Jill Waluigi gets 53.84% on Wesker Captain Toad gets 54.10% on Richter The Boss gets 52.63% on KOS-MOS Shepard gets 50.38% on Garrus Ramza gets 51.88% on Lloyd Metal Sonic gets 56.10% on Metal Man |
LusterSoldier posted... Enter Your Tiebreaker: Damn, I thought I overshot my main bracket tiebreaker by the millions. Overshot by about 500k, but that's a lot closer than I thought. Character Battle X Current Score: 200/256 Time to wake up, Link. |
Division 7/8, Round 4 Luigi vs. Tifa Lockheart Registered Vote Result: Luigi - 5054 (50.60%) Tifa Lockheart - 4934 (49.40%) Anonymous Vote Result: Luigi - 5041 (45.13%) Tifa Lockheart - 6129 (54.87%) Sephiroth vs. Ryu Registered Vote Result: Sephiroth - 5893 (59.01%) Ryu - 4094 (40.99%) Anonymous Vote Result: Sephiroth - 6983 (62.51%) Ryu - 4188 (37.49%) Luigi/Tifa has nearly a 5.5 point split between registered and anonymous users, with Luigi outright winning the registered user vote. This match also has 47.21% registered user votes out of the overall raw vote totals. This percentage of registered user votes is not out of line with other non-rallied matches. I still don't rule out that some rallied votes came in for Tifa. Even removing 300 anonymous votes from Tifa would bring that match down to about a 4 point split between registered/anonymous users and change the match to have 47.89% registered user votes. Sephiroth did much better with the anonymous user vote, with a 3.5% difference between registered/anonymous votes. Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Square characters have tended to do much better with the anonymous vote this year anyway. |
Even
Tifa/Mewtwo was only about a 2.5% difference and that had no rallying.
Luigi/Tifa was a very huge split of about 5.5%, comparable to Zelda's
round 1 match and still less than Pikachu's first 2 matches (exactly
6.4% on both). Tifa's not a character that will completely collapse
with the registered user vote, so part of that huge registered/anonymous
split could be attributed to some rallied votes. Still don't think the
match had more than 500 rallied votes. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... TheOneAboveAll posted...I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? Its just a bad structure for a tournament. The point of double elimination is that you need to lose twice to be out. If you lose once in the finals to someone who has already lost, there is usually a reset. LeBron "Stannis" James - The one true king of the NBA |
Mario > Samus always and forever. Called it. Told you so. Vindicated. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
Yuri_LowelI posted... This isn’t 2005 anymore. Mario is just on another level now. What evidence do we have for this? People keep saying it but where have we actively seen it? "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
LeonhartFour posted... nobody cares Last stats topic proved that people actually still do and defend the cult language to the death. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
sorry I see no evidence that topic ever existed |
Link versus Cloud posted... LeonhartFour posted...TheOneAboveAll posted...show hidden quote(s)I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? How do you even do this though? Run the same poll again the next day? That would be stupid. (edited 11/19/2018 6:52:23 PM) |
Also,
the thing is that you have to predict everything beforehand, so the
script for the bracket would be weird because some people would have
Link just winning in the finals and ending it there and some people
would have Link losing once and forcing a rematch, which would result in
more possible points and some people would potentially have no pick to
make. |
ShatteredElysium posted... How do you even do this though? Run the same poll again the next day? That would be stupid. I could see the re-run getting much lower vote totals due to a lot of voters thinking it's the same poll that they already voted in. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now? My rough guess although I feel something screwy is gonna happen with samus, sonic and zelda. Link Mario Snake Cloud Samus Crono Sephiroth Megaman Zelda Sonic Bowser Tifa Megaman X Pikachu Auron Truly if there is evil in this world. It lies within the heart of mankind. - Dhaos |
fallenstar posted... So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now? Auron shouldn't be anywhere near these guys imo. At the very least, I'd take Yoshi, Luigi and Kirby over Auron. As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?). congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
Probably something like this: Link Mario Samus Aran Cloud Strife Solid Snake Sephiroth Crono Zelda Mega Man Sonic the Hedgehog Pikachu Ganondorf Bowser Tifa Lockheart Mega Man X This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
I think Vivi beats Bowser. Kirby is probably as strong (or stronger) indirectly, too. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
squexa posted... As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?). For Crono, we could look at Frog's performance this contest and compare it to a similar opponent from 2010: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7326- https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3757- Frog did do a little bit better against Luigi compared to Bowser in 2010, though the 2010 match was a day match that would have boosted Bowser slightly as Frog has a terrible ASV. Yet I would take Bowser > Luigi (though they're very close), which means that Frog 2018 should be pretty similar to Frog 2010. At best, Frog 2018 is only very marginally stronger than Frog 2010. Assuming Luigi 2018 = Bowser 2010, then Frog 2018 gets 52.16% on Frog 2010. Not much of an improvement there. Magus is tougher to evaluate because his result against Vincent was almost all on Vincent dropping. Probably the only FFVII character that I would say for sure has dropped, where as the rest of the FFVII crew seems to have retained their strength quite well (even Sephiroth) Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven? Raytan7585 is better than me at redditFAQs |
TheOneAboveAll posted... Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven? In the raw stats, yeah, unless Ganondorf holds up like a champ. He'd have to get at least 29.59% to avoid it. thankfully Chloe is the one character I'm okay with being below Draven |
LeonhartFour posted... TheOneAboveAll posted...Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven? Aw, crap, now I want to vote for Ganondorf. |
Well, we'll likely use Ganondorf vs Pikachu/Mega Man for xstats. congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
LusterSoldier posted... squexa posted...As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?). The thing about Magus is that he still looks boosted through Auron, but of course the big question is whether Auron also fell. congrats to BKSheikah the BYIG guru |
squexa posted... fallenstar posted...So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now? Yeah should probably be Luigi for my 15th given how i have tifa and X there and how close they all are together. Frog did do a little bit better against Luigi compared to Bowser in 2010, though the 2010 match was a day match that would have boosted Bowser slightly as Frog has a terrible ASV. Yet I would take Bowser > Luigi (though they're very close), which means that Frog 2018 should be pretty similar to Frog 2010. At best, Frog 2018 is only very marginally stronger than Frog 2010. Assuming Luigi 2018 = Bowser 2010, then Frog 2018 gets 52.16% on Frog 2010. Not much of an improvement there. Yeah despite the supposed Crono boost. I feel he is really about the same place he was in 2010. I feel like only Link and Mario really boosted and everyone else just dropped a bit. Magus/Auron is probably mostly Auron falling. Truly if there is evil in this world. It lies within the heart of mankind. - Dhaos |
LeonhartFour posted... And some more fun with numbers! A disturbing amount of these actually make a lot of sense. The only things that really stand out as questionable are Captain Toad and Ramza BKSheikah, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
When
the contest went away a few hours ago, it caused the regular poll on
the homepage to experience a brief spike in vote totals after the last
matches ended. This is visible in this hourly vote chart for the final
12 hours of the poll: Time | Votes 13:00 | 446 14:00 | 389 15:00 | 399 16:00 | 374 17:00 | 382 18:00 | 387 19:00 | 366 20:00 | 463 21:00 | 443 22:00 | 373 23:00 | 361 24:00 | 304 The spike in vote totals appeared to last for about 2 hours before dropping off again. I guess a lot of people were checking the homepage expecting to see a contest match, which could explain the spike. It'll be interesting to see the vote totals of the regular polls during the break when there's no contest matches running. The regular polls during the contest averaged only 9599 votes, compared to 10377 votes for the final 30 regular polls before the start of the first match. The presence of the contest matches caused a 7.5% reduction in vote totals for the regular polls during the contest. This could be explained by the regular polls being pushed slightly farther down on the homepage. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! (edited 11/19/2018 9:23:39 PM) |
LeonhartFour posted... also interesting poll to consider for Mega Man/Pikachu Fair enough, but on the other hand, Pokémon got over half the vote against Mega Man. Not to mention Pikachu just looks stronger than ever before. tgs2 posted... Is it possible for something really stupid like Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus 1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead of something so cookie cutter. Yeah, it's possible. Wouldn't surprise me; a lot of people think Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario. I actually had that in my second chance bracket initially, but decided to go with Mario > Sephiroth instead. LeonhartFour posted... also for fun That...actually seems reasonable! Tifa's held up well to Sephiroth before, and lolhentai could make it even closer. "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. (edited 11/19/2018 9:33:08 PM) |
xp1337 posted... LeonhartFour posted...TheOneAboveAll posted...show hidden quote(s)I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off? I think it's more likely Link wins the first round and loses the second? I'm thinking about putting Link > Crono, Link > Snake, then Crono > Link for the grand final. September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
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