Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308 GameFAQs Contests
- Team Aqua Elite (38)
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Safer_777 posted... As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase. Basically, you get a chance to predict just the Legends bracket once all the entrants are finalized. |
swordz9 posted... Ganon, Pikachu, Alucard, Bowser, Snake, Auron, Samus and Mario are gonna be my votes. I have yet to play a single Castlevania, Metroid or MGS game too congrats on going full LMS dude |
TooTooP3 posted... Is Tifa getting rallied again? I could be wrong, but the vote totals seem a bit higher than they usually are at this time. We are up about 1600 votes from yesterday but right about in line with Ganon/Vivi (i.e another close match). We are 300 or so down from MMX/Tifa and the rallies we think made a larger difference didn't happen until later in the day. Only the MMX rally was in swing around this point I think (edited 11/19/2018 11:11:39 AM) |
Safer_777 posted... As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase. That's not true, the Red vs Alucard and Bowser vs Kirby matches only got around 28k. |
TooTooP3 posted... Safer_777 posted...As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase. Well, SFF matches tend to get fewer votes anyway. |
LeonhartFour posted... LusterSoldier posted...Lara Croft had a terrible board vote against Metal Man too. It was a metal movement for the ages and we were all lucky to see it live. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
LeonhartFour posted... swordz9 posted...Ganon, Pikachu, Alucard, Bowser, Snake, Auron, Samus and Mario are gonna be my votes. I have yet to play a single Castlevania, Metroid or MGS game too I’m sure lots of other people vote for characters they don’t know for whatever reason especially this year where you’re forced to vote in all matches! Most of those are just straight anti-N9 votes though. It’s all I’ve got left |
I
was wondering how well a lol x-stats bracket would have done so far.
With it being five years since the last character battle and many
adjustments based on 2010 performances there’s no doubt we could see
crazy results. Anyway, the bracket was filled using the following rules. 1. All characters received their most recent adjusted x-stat value 2. New characters have an x-stat value of 0 3. The winner of a new character vs. new character match will be the higher seed The following matches were incorrectly predicted by the lol x-stats bracket. Round 1 Tidus > Donkey Kong Zidane > Knuckles Cecil > Crash L-Block > Kefka Aloy > D.Va Shovel Knight > Captain Toad Ryu Hayabusa > Simon Belmont Riku > Bayonetta Nathan Drake > Tails Round 2 Leon Kennedy > Tidus L-Block > Bomberman Ness > 2B Ike > Phoenix Wright Ryu Hayabusa > Geralt Riku > Pac-Man Master Chief > Nathan Drake Round 3 L-Block > Alucard Squall > Zelda Riku > Ryu Hayabusa Round 4 Vivi > Ganondorf L-Block > Pokemon Trainer Red Squall > Aerith Current Points: 181/240 (will be 197/256 after Tifa and Sephiroth win) Not too bad, all things considering. Like the gurus the x-stats bracket failed to predict Donkey Kong and Tails winning their four-pack. Also, the top half of division 6 was a mess with the bracket only getting 2/7 matches correct (the auto-win matches of Geralt > Rosalina and Pac-Man > Sans). New characters were pretty fair with two seeding upsets, 2B > Ness and Geralt adding to the mess of the top half of division 6 being our mistakes. The biggest busters so far are L-Block and Zelda. L-Block had a great x-stat value in 2013 meaning instead of losing in the first round he was predicted to win the entire division. However, L-Block sort of masks the issue with the division. Even if you make him auto lose to Kefka, Kefka will then defeat Alucard in round 3 and Red will win the division so you are only saving three points so far. Though you’ll likely save eight more with the Bowser > Red, instead of L-Block > Bowser pick in the loser’s bracket. Zelda on the other hand is the sole reason why this bracket lost 12 points and potentially more in future matches. Contests are usually won by picking one or two large upsets and keeping everything else standard. Going pro-Zelda and potentially pro-Ganondorf (as in take them to beat all non-Noble Nine characters) would essentially put this bracket into prize winning territory. Of course, that will only matter if Solid Snake is still the second strongest character which is looking doubtful (or your other upset pick was to take Mario as the second strongest character). Here’s what the remaining picks look like… Link > Vivi Mega Man > Pikachu Cloud > L-Block Crono > Bowser Solid Snake > Squall Sonic > Auron Samus > Tifa Mario > Sephiroth Pikachu > Vivi L-Block > Bowser Squall > Auron Tifa > Sephiroth Link > Mega Man Crono > Cloud Solid Snake > Sonic Mario > Samus Mega Man > Pikachu Cloud > L-Block Sonic > Squall Samus > Tifa Link > Crono Solid Snake > Mario Mega Man > Cloud Samus > Sonic Mega Man > Crono Mario > Samus Link > Solid Snake Mario > Mega Man Solid Snake > Mario Link > Solid Snake CBX - Today's Winners: Mega Man X and Sephiroth Score: 188/240 |
it's just the fact that you're bragging about your votes and games you've never played |
ZenOfThunder posted... so people can spend time with their families and if s*** goes down allen doesn't have to spend his thanksgiving doing damage control Also going from the atmosphere in this forum, I think a break would be much welcome. Some people are getting really stressed about this contest. |
the weird thing is that we were mostly pretty chill this year until Tifa/MMX I'm still kind of amazed that people are legitimately upset about that |
Yeah
I mean of all things to get upset about, 2 people close to each other
in strength having a close match is not the one you would expect people
to flip out about. And it's not like either character has a rabid
fanbase |
It's the hentai, man. Masturbation corrupts the mind and the soul. |
I mean that was a joke but people get irrational when the subject is sex. I don't consume hentai but I don't give a damn about it either. |
Who
said I was bragging about them? I just listed who I’m voting for in the
remaining R1 matches since the contest is going on break for a week. I
don’t see how it came off as bragging. I don’t have anything contest
related worth bragging about other than being one of the few who took
Geralt winning 3 matches (but I took him over Auron too so...) |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... Antivotes will probably keep Ganondorf over 15%. Surely Link didn't have that always-wins reputation in 2004. In 2004, Link just lost the previous contest while in 2018... oh no. This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
Link hasn't won in 8 years and the Link fans are just licking their chops. That Ammy/Draven match was just the Link fans voting for Ammy everyone will be worth 10% or less on Link in the X-Stats book it |
Yeah
Ganon probably breaks 15 at least, Link's blowout power wasn't quite
the same in 2010 and 2013 even against lesser Nintendo characters. |
I am voting Link in every match and I'm not even feeling bad for it. |
He probably doesn't SFF anyone as hard as Ganon though. Almost no one prefers Ganon to Link. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to BKSheikah, the winner of the Best Year in Gaming contest. |
UltimaterializerX posted... Exodecai posted...So.... does Ganondorf break 15% on Link? In 2004 he couldn't even do that.... I would be surprised if he is that low. With the low votals it is pretty hard to get blow out. |
Besides, don't forget that the last time we saw Link was when he was the hero the site needed, against Draven 5 years ago (The bonus match doesn't count) 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
ZeldaTPLink posted... I am voting Link in every match and I'm not even feeling bad for it. I think I'd vote him over everyone remaining except Snake |
Seriously, I think Sephiroth is one of the stars of the round. 60%+ on Ryu is wild. Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link. Ryu (2013c) has a strength of 32.50 against Base Link. Sephiroth58.22%31,413 Ryu41.78%22,547 Sephiroth wins with 58.22% of the vote! Based purely on stats it's not a HUGE overperformance, but in the context of Ryu dunking on everyone in his side of the division, it's definitely impressive. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I anti-voted Tifa for what she called Barret in FF7. |
yes we know you tell us that every time Tifa has a match |
People
talk about Zelda getting a potential Link proxy boost from him not
being in the bracket. I wonder if any of the FF7 crew are getting boosts
from no Cloud presence (edited 11/19/2018 12:02:02 PM) |
There are no proxy boosts. There never have been. There never will be. [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] |
I
love how it turns out FF7 is actually still strong, it's just that
everyone finally realized how bad a character Vincent really is. |
It's
weird to me that people still think proxy voting is a thing like this
is the first time Link and Cloud have been removed from the main
bracket. |
MegaWentEvil posted... I anti-voted Tifa for what she called Barret in FF7. All this time I thought it was Barret's quote Uh 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
so
does this destroy the "sephiroth is clearly the weakest noble niner"
dialogue that some people were saying earlier in the contest? You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
Well, I never really believed he was, but yeah, I have a hard time thinking Sonic 60/40s Ryu, at the very least. |
After 9 hours, Tifa's lead finally breaks 800. |
This result is pretty close to what Sephiroth was expected to get in 2010, so maybe he just didn't drop like we thought. Which means Ammy is just great but I kinda like the idea of her overperforming due to killing Draven "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Ryu Hayabusa – 44.10% Yeah, I think there is a good chance that is true. Maybe Magus and Vincent being low on the list could make sense, but Sub-Zero's placement here is definitely off. If that was a 2002 match, how many people here pick Samus? MAYBE two? To tell you the honest truth, I would have picked Samus over Mario back in 2002! But back then I didn't know that Mario was that popular and thought he wouldn't be able to touch Cloud, and I thought Samus would be able to contend with Link... "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Janus5k posted... This result is pretty close to what Sephiroth was expected to get in 2010, so maybe he just didn't drop like we thought. Well, Ryu has a reason to be a little stronger these days because of Smash, but either way, this seems to speak well of the fact that FFVII at least hasn't dropped off any further. |
For
anyone wondering, Tifa is indeed being rallied. Mostly from Reddit;
I've seen a thread about voting for Tifa in the FFRK subreddit at least. This is a signature FC: 0173-1597-8318 |
oh that's ExTha's doing again I'm pretty sure |
can crono beat cloud? i see ppl saying crono is stronger now but cmon its like mario/samus all over again. >_______________> (edited 11/19/2018 2:08:47 PM) |
I
had Crono > Cloud, but to be fair my bracket was made under the
assumption that FFVII would be weaker. I also have MMX > Sephiroth. CBX - Today's Winners: Mega Man X and Sephiroth Score: 188/240 |
MrFirestar posted... For anyone wondering, Tifa is indeed being rallied. Mostly from Reddit; I've seen a thread about voting for Tifa in the FFRK subreddit at least. Not like she even needed the rally. |
Just noticed it says "Next battle in 1 hour" lol Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. |
Oh man imagine if the next matches went up by accident |
Bonus matches...? "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Might have been nice to have random poll with losers to help evaluate who are the true frauds. |
A match between the loser and the semi loser for 2nd place in the division would be cool Like X vs Luigi or Yoshi vs Zero or even Squall vs Aeris Warning: I'm literally VeryInsane. |
This match makes Allen's decision to take Sephiroth out of the Noble Nine look even worse tbh! "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
He should have put Sonic in Sephiroth's position (and Sephiroth against Cloud). |
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