Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1307 GameFAQs Contests

I mean it depends on if you think everyone else from Mario boosted a bit

It would explain Bowser > Kirby and Yoshi doing better on Pikachu than Zero

Crash is a little weird but it’s possible the remaster just gave him strength. We won’t know until the Cloud match at leasr

Geiki Ganger posted...

I guess we all agree Alucard's boost is from Smash Ultimate?

The Castlevania Netflix series has gotten a good amount of credit too.

I would side with Luigi these days, I think, but it’s a close call between him and Bowser. Yoshi’s the definite third at this point.

charmander6000 posted...

TooTooP3 posted...

Just checked the contest standings.

More people had Pikachu winning the division than Ganondorf? Interesting

Not exactly, those numbers are essentially how many people took a character from the top half of the division over the bottom half.

I'm pretty sure it's just correct picks vs incorrect picks, actually. The number by the winner's name being correct picks.

At some point you have to ask yourself what's the difference between a Nintendo boost and an everything else drop

Xeybozn posted...

Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.

Not really? Big Boss has obviously fallen hard--not only letting Crash get close to him, but also doing worse on Red than Sora did despite it being clear from every other match they've been in that the KH crew has fallen hard. Red... that's a slightly tougher read, because Red's 2013 path was aided by favorable SFF scenarios so we weren't necessarily sure he was strong to begin with. So he may not have fallen that far.

But then there's Kefka. Kefka barely outperformed Yuna on Alucard, which does seem kind of weird. In the context of the rest of the division, this suggests that Yuna hasn't lost much strength, possibly even gained strength since 2010 when she lost to... Zack Fair? The same Zack Fair that Kefka not only beat in 2013, but avoided LFF against well enough to win against what seemed like an equally strong opponent?

I guess that's just the power of SFF. Kefka easily beats Zack and Zack easily beats Yuna, but indirectly Kefka and Yuna are more or less equal.

...Huh. Come to think of it, Auron's looked damn good this contest as well. Maybe the win over Subby was a tad underwhelming but aside from Guile getting pasted by Kirby, fighting game characters have also looked oddly strong this year. Is it possible that FFX boosted somehow? That makes no sense. And if so, Donkey Kong you beast!

Tidus doesn't really look bad at all. DK just happened to be a lot stronger.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Xeybozn posted...

Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.

Not really? Big Boss has obviously fallen hard--not only letting Crash get close to him, but also doing worse on Red than Sora did despite it being clear from every other match they've been in that the KH crew has fallen hard. Red... that's a slightly tougher read, because Red's 2013 path was aided by favorable SFF scenarios so we weren't necessarily sure he was strong to begin with. So he may not have fallen that far.

But then there's Kefka. Kefka barely outperformed Yuna on Alucard, which does seem kind of weird. In the context of the rest of the division, this suggests that Yuna hasn't lost much strength, possibly even gained strength since 2010 when she lost to... Zack Fair? The same Zack Fair that Kefka not only beat in 2013, but avoided LFF against well enough to win against what seemed like an equally strong opponent?

I guess that's just the power of SFF. Kefka easily beats Zack and Zack easily beats Yuna, but indirectly Kefka and Yuna are more or less equal.

...Huh. Come to think of it, Auron's looked damn good this contest as well. Maybe the win over Subby was a tad underwhelming but aside from Guile getting pasted by Kirby, fighting game characters have also looked oddly strong this year. Is it possible that FFX boosted somehow? That makes no sense. And if so, Donkey Kong you beast!

Yeah, the Kefka situation is bizarre. I think another possibility is that Zack fell hard in 2013 (which isn't that implausible since other peripheral FFVII characters like Vincent also fell), which gave the false illusion that Kefka boosted.

The really weird thing is that Terra looks great this year in her match with Charizard, so believing Alucard is actually weak the whole time means believing that Terra is now considerably stronger than Kefka.

Yeah unless Alucard > Bowser, it's hard to argue Kefka > Terra anymore without bringing up some factor.

If you set Terra and Kefka as equals, Alucard is stronger than Bowser and Red beats Charizard with 53% of the votes.

squexa posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Xeybozn posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.

Not really? Big Boss has obviously fallen hard--not only letting Crash get close to him, but also doing worse on Red than Sora did despite it being clear from every other match they've been in that the KH crew has fallen hard. Red... that's a slightly tougher read, because Red's 2013 path was aided by favorable SFF scenarios so we weren't necessarily sure he was strong to begin with. So he may not have fallen that far.

But then there's Kefka. Kefka barely outperformed Yuna on Alucard, which does seem kind of weird. In the context of the rest of the division, this suggests that Yuna hasn't lost much strength, possibly even gained strength since 2010 when she lost to... Zack Fair? The same Zack Fair that Kefka not only beat in 2013, but avoided LFF against well enough to win against what seemed like an equally strong opponent?

I guess that's just the power of SFF. Kefka easily beats Zack and Zack easily beats Yuna, but indirectly Kefka and Yuna are more or less equal.

...Huh. Come to think of it, Auron's looked damn good this contest as well. Maybe the win over Subby was a tad underwhelming but aside from Guile getting pasted by Kirby, fighting game characters have also looked oddly strong this year. Is it possible that FFX boosted somehow? That makes no sense. And if so, Donkey Kong you beast!

Yeah, the Kefka situation is bizarre. I think another possibility is that Zack fell hard in 2013 (which isn't that implausible since other peripheral FFVII characters like Vincent also fell), which gave the false illusion that Kefka boosted.

The really weird thing is that Terra looks great this year in her match with Charizard, so believing Alucard is actually weak the whole time means believing that Terra is now considerably stronger than Kefka.

Yeah. That's true; we saw Vincent weaken and a lot of people just wanted to blame the pic sabotage. So Zack weakening makes sense, and in the context of his match with Kefka, we assumed a Kefka boost instead because Kefka won outright and our last impression of the character who was trying to take advantage of the SFF was one of strength. But really, why wouldn't Ryu Hayabusa be weaker?

It was both Vincent falling and getting sabotaged. 95% of brackets in the Guru had Auron over Vincent. That doesn't happen if people think Vincent was his normal self. Vincent also looked better this year than his loss to Phoenix Wright would suggest.

Except Vincent's only two opponents were Magus, who has a penchant for disappointing, and Auron, whose game looked like complete crap in 2015.

Although most of us still consider FFX to be within the upper midcard range right? Chrono Trigger and Mega Man X are probably just that strong.

FFX dropped just a little bit in 2015. Much like Tidus in 2018...and 2013...and 2010...it was given an early opponent seemingly tailor-made to make them look bad.

FF10 was about as strong as unrallied SSBM in 2015. That's about where it was supposed to be.

Do you think FFX or Melee would have beaten Chrono Trigger in 2009?

I've stated my reason for picking Chrono Trigger to win that division multiple times and will not do so again unless someone wants clarification.

Also I realized this year that Melee has won its division in every games contest except for GOTD surprisingly enough. Lol Brawl.

Do you think Bidoof or Nidoran F would have beaten Magikarp in 2013?

I've stated my reason for picking Magikarp to win that division multiple times and will not do so again unless someone wants clarification.

Also I realized this year that Magikarp has won its division in every games contest except for GOTD surprisingly enough. Lol Gyarados.

Alright the Noble Nine is old hat, we need the Not As Noble Nine to determine who the strongest non-N9 characters are

I got (in no particular order):

Zelda
Luigi
Bowser
Kirby
Ganondorf
Pikachu
Vivi
Tifa/MMX (depending on the day of the week)

And maybe Alucard, depending on how he continues to do.

I think putting Alucard near that list is a little too kind to him. I wouldn't take him to beat Auron, for instance. Dante - someone who's probably just outside the top 20 now - would be an excellent test for him.

Squall will end up higher than Auron book it!!

Games =/= Characters. Though usually with RPGs it's the games themselves that are stronger, so you'd think FFX dropping would be bad for its characters.

It dropped very little.

Bowser and Alucard both have the same percentage

https://imgur.com/a/aVraC1M

So does anyone have an explanation for how in the world the Boss almost beat Sub-zero in 2013? Might have some implications for both of our upcoming matches.

pjbasis posted...

At some point you have to ask yourself what's the difference between a Nintendo boost and an everything else drop

That’s how I’ve seen it.

Square and western stuff keeps dropping. Nintendo just keeps on Nintendo-ing.

KamikazePotato posted...

Alright the Noble Nine is old hat, we need the Not As Noble Nine to determine who the strongest non-N9 characters are

I got (in no particular order):

Zelda
Luigi
Bowser
Kirby
Ganondorf
Pikachu
Vivi
Tifa/MMX (depending on the day of the week)

And maybe Alucard, depending on how he continues to do.

Next Nine, bro. Next Nine.

Sub-Zero is one of those general mass-appeal characters that everyone recognizes, but hardly anyone would consider "a favorite". The broad theory thus far is that those characters do better in 1v1s and suffer in multi-way polls when a much stronger character is there to siphon away some of that general support.

squexa posted...

So does anyone have an explanation for how in the world the Boss almost beat Sub-zero in 2013? Might have some implications for both of our upcoming matches.

Zelda is a Noble Nine crusher

In a hypothetical 1v1 bracket where only Link is retired (everyone else including Cloud, Snake, and Mario are in the main bracket), which of the Noble 9 would you take Zelda to beat?

Do you sincerely consider her to win the bracket outright?

creativename posted...

2K4 Mario does not get 59.79% in 2K4 Samus, it just doesn’t happen. He was too weak. Not a good year for him.

You can't be certain of that though. You are making a lot of assumptions.

- Samus could not have boosted in 2005 as well
- SFF ability is inherently tied to contest strength

There is evidence to support both of these things are wrong.

creativename posted...

That’s not an irrelevant hypothetical - that is literally your claim. Just worded in a more pragmatic manner, to show how totally out there your claim is.

You're the one claiming Samus vs Mario in 2004 is "quite fuzzy." What does that mean exactly? I said they probably go like 54-46 or 55-45 and you didn't accept it, so to me that implies "quite fuzzy" is code for "I don't want to admit I was wrong about the matchup and am going to claim Samus squeaks out a win in 2004 and the Mario boost is why it wasn't competitive in 2005"

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?

Yeah I think in a normal match Sub Zero gets like 57 or 8 but throw Bowser in the mix and you get someone with name value siphoning votes

It’s how Scorpion got crushed by Pikachu

CaptainOfCrush posted...

In a hypothetical 1v1 bracket where only Link is retired (everyone else including Cloud, Snake, and Mario are in the main bracket), which of the Noble 9 would you take Zelda to beat?

Do you sincerely consider her to win the bracket outright?

I would take Zelda to win.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

In a hypothetical 1v1 bracket where only Link is retired (everyone else including Cloud, Snake, and Mario are in the main bracket), which of the Noble 9 would you take Zelda to beat?

Do you sincerely consider her to win the bracket outright?

I mean I'm trying to protect Squall's pride.

No matter how ridiculous we get she probably isn't usurping the Nintendo hierarchy against LMS. But I can see her beating Mega Man, Sonic, Sephiroth, Crono if he's not amazing now, Cloud if sucks, Snake if he sucks.

The first test will be to see just how bad or not Squall is compared to Aerith.

Match CXVII: (4) Zelda vs. (15) Aerith Gainsborough

Current Contest Performance

Zelda
Defeated Ezio Auditore da Firenze, 75.33% - 24.67%
Defeated The Boss, 70.70%, 29.30%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 63.32% - 36.68%

Aerith Gainsborough
Defeated Waluigi, 57.43% - 42.57%
Defeated Captain Toad, 59.99% - 40.01%
Defeated Fox McCloud, 52.70% - 47.30%

Analysis

Aerith’s reign of Nintendo destruction will end fittingly by a Nintendo character. While most people expected Zelda to win last round, I don’t think they expected the level of destruction she would put on Squall. These are Link-level performances she has put up over the last three rounds.

After legitimizing herself against Fox, Aerith will probably give us the best look at what Zelda is capable of and I think some people are going to be left disappointed. Squall didn’t look good this contest, he didn’t even look that good in 2013 and thus Zelda exposed him like her other opponents. Aerith and Final Fantasy VII has performed well so far. Zelda should be able to easily outdo her 2006 performance, but if she’s pushing a doubling like a few people expect then Solid Snake better watch out.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zelda > Aerith Gainsborough

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zelda wins, 62.27% - 37.73%




Match CXVIII: (1) Geralt vs. (3) Auron

Current Contest Performance

Geralt
Defeated Rosalina, 56.03% - 43.97%
Defeated Simon Belmont, 52.19% - 47.81%
Defeated Bayonetta, 50.88% - 49.12%

Auron
Defeated Lucina, 65.44% - 34.56%
Defeated Vincent Valentine, 55.80% - 44.20%
Defeated Sub-Zero, 56.71% - 43.29%

Analysis

Congratulations to Geralt for running the gauntlet and making the division finals. After three matches, we still don’t quite know where he ranks, it really depends on where you think his opponents rank. Of course, without a rally, which is still quite possible for him, especially after Pandora’s box was open during Tifa/Mega Man X he should have no chance at winning here.

While it looks as if Auron has lost a step his performances seem to suggest it was only a small one and that he is still a character with strength. In a best-case scenario Geralt could be in striking distance, but you would have to really stretch your belief. Geralt’s best chance at winning is through a rally.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Auron > Bayonetta

charmander6000’s Prediction: Auron wins, 58.36% - 41.64%

Based on today's match, it doesn't seem like we are seeing a boost in vote totals from switching over to 2 matches per day. We did see this boost in the 2015 contest, but maybe a boost like that was more likely to occur in a Games Contest where people might be more likely to abstain from the early rounds because of all the games they might not have played before. It's probably more likely someone abstains from a match featuring 2 games they haven't played compared to a match featuring 2 characters they don't recognize.

We did see a boost in vote totals during the Years contest when switching to 1 match per day, but the Years contest was pretty much a Team vs. Team Games Contest.

squexa posted...

So does anyone have an explanation for how in the world the Boss almost beat Sub-zero in 2013? Might have some implications for both of our upcoming matches.

Hype > Actual games. Even though she wasn't in the game in question, MGS characters might've been a bit stronger in 2013 because of MGSV hype. And not being in MGSV might have actually been better, because it meant that it wasn't counterbalanced by an MGSV pic.

Hey there Zelda...

let's go zelda

do something ridiculous

Today feels like a day off compared to the other three

Zelda...

Zelda vs Cloud, who wins ?

Given his poor board vote Geralt is going to look respectable after this.

ya go geralt

Go go my Geralt

Auron went up after the freeze, so maybe Geralt got the benefit of the bracket vote.

Averia posted...

Zelda vs Cloud, who wins ?

Would have picked Zelda pre contest.

So damn proud of Geralt.

100% in my country for Geralt and Aerith! Yeah I am the only who voted of course.

Go Geralt. He’s looking pretty respectable after all. Other match is a snoozer for sure though. First time I ever voted Aerith I think, but I’d have preferred to only vote in Geralt/Auron so hopefully that stupid restriction never returns for a contest again

14 people fell off the Top 50. Cb7799, DoctorJimmy133, BradyFumbled, scaryice, Advokaiser, pronouncemyname, ZenOfThunder, GoldSlime35, VegetarianKefka, AxemRedRanger, SamusOverCloud, VeryInsane, LittleFinger22 and LusterSoldier did not have Alucard and Bowser winning yesterday.

29 people got one wrong and went up in rank. TheBiggerWiggle, SpikeDragon, Captain_Sorzo, XIII_rocks, art_of_the_kill, KeepinItFresh, pirate109, iGenesis, Outer_space, Zylothewolf, Mr_Monkford, Cody11533, TeamRocketElite, Xeybozn, Vegink, Lukejalil, Underleveled, Gyarados, Fart, TylerF, Nanis23, gitanil, Seanchan, Osfan, PreseaCombatir, PSI_NESS, pyresword, Camden and psaltery only got 8 points but they all improved their position on the leaderboard.

7 people didn't get any points but survived. Former first place Steevo_234, former third place haloiscoolisbak, ALAKA, hylianknight3, foxhead84, Safer_777 and davidponte had enough points that taking the day off was not enough to knock them from the leaderboard.

No one on the Top 50 scored full points.

Brandalia was the highest ranked person to score full points. They went from around 93rd to 17th place!