Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1306 GameFAQs Contests

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Is Cayde-6 not the weakest member of the division now?

...is it Joel?

as long as Bowser doesn't go over 55.15% it'll be Cayde-6

otherwise it'll be poor Estelle

creativename posted...

Yes good post. This match was up in the air.

No, it really wasn't. They've had a match before and neither character has had a reason to move since 2005. This isn't Snake/Mega Man where one character got into Smash Bros before the other. Bowser and Kirby are the exact same they've always been, people just got fooled by 3/4-way matches because Kirby overperforms in those for very obvious reasons.

Pokemon also overperforms in multi-way matches for the same exact reason, which Leon has been calling for years.

UltimaterializerX posted...

No, it really wasn't. They've had a match before and neither character has had a reason to move since 2005.

They literally moved by enough for Kirby to win the match if the movement is in the other direction.

LeonhartFour posted...

I got more caught up in how strong it would make Ness and Shadow look personally

and the fact that this means Cayde-6 doesn't totally suck

Ness like all other Nintendo characters had reason to boost while Sonic characters have performed well.

Like if Bowser struggled with Charizard then maybe there was a chance he dropped in strength. Kirby always had a chance pre-contest, but he never did earn it over the contest.

I mean I could see this being a situation where the HIERARCHY prevails for whatever the reason, which should make Ganon/Pikachu pretty interesting (although Pokemon often exists outside the hierarchical structure to an extent)

I think it's why FFIX beat KH1 in 2015 personally

charmander6000 posted...

Ness like all other Nintendo characters had reason to boost

except for Ike apparently who gets left in the dust by Ness now

Lopen posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

No, it really wasn't. They've had a match before and neither character has had a reason to move since 2005.

They literally moved by enough for Kirby to win the match if the movement is in the other direction.

Nope. Currently 1.67%, which is not enough to overturn Bowser winning with 52.12%.

Ness currently gets 38% on Bowser. In 2013, he's projected to get 38% on Bowser.

I think the argument for HIERARCHY before the fact was weak considering we saw a 48-52 match between the two before. That doesn't smell of a match that's SFF dominated. That's not Mario 60-40ing Samus.

I mean, maybe it exists, but people didn't present that before the contest. Just beat their chest and grunted afterwards.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Nope. Currently 1.67%, which is not enough to overturn Bowser winning with 52.12%.

Don't be a twit you know what I meant (also if you responded when I made the post it was actually right then)

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

Well, I don't think the HIERARCHY always results in a lopsided SFF beatdown. Like I said, I think it helped FFIX beat KH1, and FFIX barely got 51%.

charmander6000 posted...

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

Of course he would have and it's moronic to think otherwise. 2005 proved this by such a hilarious degree.

charmander6000 posted...

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

I do too though? But a 52-48 clearly isn't a Mario vs Samus situation

KamikazePotato posted...

Ness currently gets 38% on Bowser. In 2013, he's projected to get 38% on Bowser.

what about Kirby

LeonhartFour posted...

Well, I don't think the HIERARCHY always results in a lopsided SFF beatdown. Like I said, I think it helped FFIX beat KH1, and FFIX barely got 51%.

FF9 did really well that contest, so even if the HIERARCHY mattered, I doubt it was by much.

UltimaterializerX posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

Of course he would have and it's moronic to think otherwise. 2005 proved this by such a hilarious degree.

lol, imagine thinking that.

Kingdom Hearts II also did extremely well that contest, so it could've mattered!

Dunno what happened to the series in the three years since then!

LeonhartFour posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Ness currently gets 38% on Bowser. In 2013, he's projected to get 38% on Bowser.

what about Kirby

Bowser (2013c) has a strength of 35.94 against Base Link.
Kirby (2013c) has a strength of 35.60 against Base Link.
Bowser50.47%27,235
Kirby49.53%26,725
Bowser wins with 50.47% of the vote!

I meant Ness against Kirby

what about Shadow against Kirby or Bowser

Let’s focus on the fact that Alucard is about to win a division

It took a long ass time but The Plan pays off

I mean it's a 60-40. Even if Samus is stronger in 2004 she's not overturning that.

If Mario only beat Samus 52-48 in 2005 though? Yeah why not argue Samus > Mario in 2004. A match within 5% being called set in stone is major moron status on pretty much any matchup because we've seen those deficits jump around time and time again for no reason at all

I mean we've seen the hierarchy flip just this year even

Auron would not have beaten Vincent ten years ago and this year he did

I haven't read everything in this topic but the reasonable explanation to me seems to be "mascots (ie. Kirby) overperform against well-loved but niche characters (ie. Phoenix)".

Kingdom Hearts 2 didn't rank much higher in the Statz than KH1 when all was said and done. They're about as far apart as they were in Game of the Decade where KH2 won straight out.

Ness gets 55.33% on Shadow in 2013. He got 53.26% this year. So Shadow does a little better this year on Bowser/Kirby.

Lopen posted...

I think there were theories that could work to pick Bowser > Kirby I just don't feel people really presented them

To me what's feeling most likely is there's a hierarchy in the Nintendo food chain that the diehard regulars to this Nintendo dominated site adhere to and as such Kirby is going to get flayed in SFF matches when vote totals tank like this year.

But no one argued that. That's just hindsight trying to make sense of something that doesn't really. I feel like most internally consistent arguments presented would have Charizard or Kirby winning here. Strangely Charizard was a pretty big underdog vs Kirby OR Bowser for reasons I don't entirely understand but whatever.

Clearly all that Charizard is a fraud rhetoric got to people. I mean it got to me too but you know me I love betting against Pokemon

I don’t think there’s any need for a hierarchy argument.

Kirby overperforms in multi-ways + a little SFF and waifu 2B is legit explain this just fine.

I wouldn’t say the Charizard is a fraud stuff was mere rhetoric. There was a basis for that.

If this hierarchy stuff is real though - what happens if Zelda faces Smaus? Could we see female bracket style wonkiness?

There’s also the idea I’ve seen that Zelda is boosting from Link not being in the main bracket, and may drop when Link he come to town. I don’t buy that yet though.

KamikazePotato posted...

Kingdom Hearts 2 didn't rank much higher in the Statz than KH1 when all was said and done. They're about as far apart as they were in Game of the Decade where KH2 won straight out.

Right. I'm not saying KH1 is stronger indirectly or anything. Just that in a situation like that, FF wins out because it's FF.

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=57

Also let it be known I'm actually the one who understood the Mario/Samus dynamic best despite Ulti's attempts to claim it as his

Ulti was calling for Mario with like 53%

But yeah Bowser/Kirby we didn't really have reason for that.

charmander6000 posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

charmander6000 posted...

show hidden quote(s)

Give it a rest Lopen, Ulti literally thinks Mario would have defeated Samus in 2004.

Of course he would have and it's moronic to think otherwise. 2005 proved this by such a hilarious degree.

lol, imagine thinking that.

Sorry but we had a match actually happen that proved me right, champ. I, much like facts themselves, don't care about your feelings.

Yikes, Kirby looks like ass and 2B looks super strong. This has been a very weird contest

creativename posted...

There’s also the idea I’ve seen that Zelda is boosting from Link not being in the main bracket, and may drop when Link he come to town. I don’t buy that yet though

eh people argued for that in 2005 too and it didn't really turn out to be true then either

Lopen posted...

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=57

Also let it be known I'm actually the one who understood the Mario/Samus dynamic best despite Ulti's attempts to claim it as his

Ulti was calling for Mario with like 53%

But yeah Bowser/Kirby we didn't really have reason for that.

Where does it say I called for 53%? I'm no where on that list.

KP, how did you determine Ness's 2013 x-stats value? Locke and CATS round 1 then SFFed by Luigi sounds like a tough path to get anything out of.

Though if anyone thinks Ness looks too high on Bowser this year, note Earthbound's increase in strength over time:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1615-division-16-round-1-earthbound-vs-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1640-division-16-round-2-doom-vs-final-fantasy-iii-vi
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6143-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-metal-gear-solid-vs-earthbound

Ness isn't going to boost proportionately to his game or even remotely close to it since Smash was already providing a pretty good floor but it probably has helped him a bit.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Where does it say I called for 53%? I'm no where on that list.

Analysis Crew archives.

AxemRedRanger posted...

KP, how did you determine Ness's 2013 x-stats value?

Probably used his 2010 value.

AxemRedRanger posted...

KP, how did you determine Ness's 2013 x-stats value? Locke and CATS round 1 then SFFed by Luigi sounds like a tough path to get anything out of.

Probably ripped it straight from 2010, where he had a straight path.

Some characters don't seem to ever change. Ness is apparently one of them!

No one actually likes Kirby beyond "well he's cute."

ExThaNemesis posted...

No one actually likes Kirby beyond "well he's cute."

Screw you man

Lopen posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Where does it say I called for 53%? I'm no where on that list.

Analysis Crew archives.

You mean the 51.59% prediction post where I'm blatantly quoting SephG's pick as a joke?

I once picked Magus to beat Crono in the analysis crew. Means jack s***.

ExThaNemesis posted...

No one actually likes Kirby beyond "well he's cute."

What that's not enough?

Lopen posted...

Screw you man

If you guys liked him more maybe he wouldn't be laying one of the biggest eggs in contest history today.

Proof is in the pudding.

Janus5k posted...

What that's not enough?

I mean clearly not if he's getting eviscerated by Bowser.

Going off of mine and Extha's last post, the implication is that the "oh it's cute" voters are more easily lost when up against real competition.

edit: Ok nevermind Extha somehow made 2 more posts while I was typing this.

Lopen posted...

I mean it's a 60-40. Even if Samus is stronger in 2004 she's not overturning that.

If Mario only beat Samus 52-48 in 2005 though? Yeah why not argue Samus > Mario in 2004. A match within 5% being called set in stone is major moron status on pretty much any matchup because we've seen those deficits jump around time and time again for no reason at all

We’ll never know, but it is certainly conceivable Samus beats Mario in 2K4.

Mario wasn’t impressive in 2K4 (even in 2K3 he let Shadow get 45%, though maybe that was a Sonic proxy thing). The entire Mario crew was beasting it up in 2K5.

Mario was very likely flat stronger than Samus in 2K5. In 2K4 he very likely wasn’t, so maybe he doesn’t get the SFF edge. Or he uses rSFF to make it very close, but loses.

I could see him beating her in 2K4 too. But surely nobody thinks it would’ve been anything like 60/40?

I could also see him straight losing in 2K4 though. The Mario boost was very large.

pyresword posted...

Going off of mine and Extha's last post, the implication is that the "oh it's cute" voters are more easily lost when up against real competition.

edit: Ok nevermind Extha somehow made 2 more posts while I was typing this.

I mean Kirby has beaten "real" competition and never gets blown out by anyone anyway

Yeah I think this is revisionist history. Kirby has done great against strong competition before. It's when he faces a strong Nintendo character that the Hierarchy apparently does him in.

UltimaterializerX posted...

You mean the 51.59% prediction post where I'm blatantly quoting SephG's pick as a joke?

I once picked Magus to beat Crono in the analysis crew. Means jack s***.

Means your predictive skills are a bad joke which is what I said.

You never really explained Mario vs Samus or ever called for a beatdown so you're not the real expert on it. That's me. I also stopped bringing that match up like 12 years ago.

oh wait I just realized that the wider pictures this round means Tifa's jugs will actually be on display this time

Luigi no chance

If you go by raw x stats, 2K5 Mario gets 56% on 2K4 Mario.

If you assume stronger Mario has more SFF power, things start to get nerve wracking for 2K4 Mario.