Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1306 GameFAQs Contests
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We've also seen Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi > Bowser over the years. Stuff changes. Just not this one because Super Mario Odyssey is great. CBX - Today's Winners: Big Boss and Bowser Score: 154/208 |
Lopen posted... I agree with this. I said after round 2. Anyone who seriously believed in the field vs Draven after that massacre in round 2 were just being optimistic or delusional though. This is true. L-Block never actually finished in first until the last couple rounds. |
Poor Peach got really fed to a monster in round 1 it seems. Could have maybe made round 4 in other parts of the bracket Also this Kirby result isn't too surprising imo. I personally only backed him because I was so uncertain about the Charizard/Bowser match. Didn't want to back yet another division winner who had a very loseable match in round 2(thanks Sora) So this was an insurance hedge bet and yeah didn't come off Started from the bottom now we here (edited 11/16/2018 5:23:33 PM) |
SwiftyDC posted... Wow, Kirby is a fraud. Kirby Star Frauds You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
You know if Peach is suddenly a beast why not Rosalina Geralt > Auron let's go "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Janus5k posted... You know if Peach is suddenly a beast why not Rosalina honestly Mario characters in particular have looked really good this year when you break down the results so why not |
Janus5k posted... You know if Peach is suddenly a beast why not Rosalina Geralt would get crushed by Alucard, though, for better or worse. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
LeonhartFour posted... Lopen posted...I agree with this. I said after round 2. Anyone who seriously believed in the field vs Draven after that massacre in round 2 were just being optimistic or delusional though. I love that the only Snake that ever beat L was the Solid s*** sprite picture. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40 |
CaptainOfCrush posted... maybe the Pokemon have usurped his lovable cutesy creature role. Need a yarn Yoshi pic I guess...! Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! |
Janus5k posted... You know if Peach is suddenly a beast why not Rosalina because that makes Belmont and Pac-Man into Auron killers somehow too For your BK_Sheikah00. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
MoogleKupo141 posted... Janus5k posted...You know if Peach is suddenly a beast why not Rosalina I mean right now unless you think Kefka doesn't wipe the floor with Terra somehow this makes Peach a Kirby-killer. https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Here
are my thoughts on the matter. I think Bowser has the edge over Kirby
in 2010. Kirby's 46% on Sonic was good, but I think Bowser's 54% on
Sora was slightly more impressive at the time. (but it's very
debatable) 2013, though, I've got to give a slight edge to Kirby that
year. He got like 47% on Seph, while Bowser got 40% on...Sonic?
However, those were 3-way polls. I'm guessing that Kirby does much
better than Bowser in 3/4-way polls. So basically, Bowser's always been
equal to or greater than Kirby in 1-on-1 contests. As far as this year, ALL of the data pointed to Kirby beating Bowser. Even Kirby's worst looking performance (against Isaac) suggested that KIrby was stronger than ever and capable of beating a Bowser who didn't appear to be much stronger than in past contests. Was it rSFF? Maybe. It's possible that Luigi rSFFed Kirby in 2006, considering KIrby was higher in the x-stats in 2005, even after adjusting Bowser's division. However, KIrby's 2005 x-stat was derived through Kirby vs. Bowser, which was an SFF match in the first place, so it's hard to make a case that rSFF took place in Luigi vs. Kirby. But what if KIrby "SFFed" Phoenix (Phoenix crumbled in a poll against Mario before) and that Kirby actually should have gotten, say, 63% on Phoenix? With this in mind, if you put Bowser and Kirby equal to each other, 2B gets an expected 56% on Phoenix. And that means Ness gets about 52% on Phoenix or 53% on Ike. That seems very pretty reasonable, and thus Bowser > Kirby seems very possible. Daaaaaang. I firmly believed that Kirby overperformed against Phoenix last round before this match happened. If only I had done the calculations, I wouldn't have made that really dumb Oracle prediction that Kirby gets 54% on Bowser. Argh!!! That's gonna hurt. In my opinion.... Bowser's probably not rSFFing Kirby, but he probably is SFFing KIrby. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 11/16/2018 5:37:35 PM) |
tgs2 posted... Lopen posted...charmander6000 posted...show hidden quote(s)That's why Undertale was going to win, it did just enough to win. This means villains have been using my site as an instrument for their nefarious, evil purposes! Gasp... The horror. |
*wakes up, checks poll* ... https://media.giphy.com/media/qmEboC2VVjBgQ/giphy.gif My guru is saved! MZero, to the extreme "2017 Guru champ BKSheikah is racist against cute Pokemon." - Luster |
NowItsAngeTime posted... TsunamiXXVIII posted...Haste_2 posted...show hidden quote(s)Bowser takes the lead! But I wonder if he can hang on? My bracket would like that, but not my Oracle pick. How would looking at 2B, a totally new character, be using stats in any way? |
KamikazePotato posted... I'm going to officially call it now: this match is the biggest case of rSFF we've ever seen. Kirby did nothing but wreck everyone on his way here. Bowser had some good performances but nothing like what Kirby busted out. If you assume that Bowser=Kirby, Ness gets like 60% on Ike. I'm inclined to agree with you. I actually have Bowser in my bracket, but I was consistently more impressed with Kirby all contest and began to feel like he could pull off an upset here. 2B continues to look more impressive with every passing round too, damn. Also, I highly doubt Bowsette had any impact. That's like saying Pikachu overperformed on Zero because of the "open mouth Pikachu" meme. Actually, I'd have an easier time believing the latter, because at least that meme didn't die before the contest. Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. (edited 11/16/2018 5:58:23 PM) |
I
have this weird feeling that Kirby vs Bowser is going to be the biggest
differential between registered result and non-registered result we've
seen yet No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I assume you are excluding Monika in that? This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
Excited for the Bowsette/Tifa final as the hentai subreddit makes the ultimate decision between old and new. |
Excluding obvious rally beneficiaries in general yeah, of which Monika would be the only one so far No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Pikachu overperformed because of Ash Pedriero Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality. |
Full marks to Ulti for calling exactly this, by the way. Even if it makes zero sense. "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
Division 1/2, Round 4 Ganondorf vs. Vivi Registered Vote Result: Ganondorf - 5136 (53.30%) Vivi - 4500 (46.70%) Anonymous Vote Result: Ganondorf - 5736 (49.71%) Vivi - 5803 (50.29%) Zero vs. Pikachu Registered Vote Result: Zero - 4050 (42.02%) Pikachu - 5588 (57.98%) Anonymous Vote Result: Zero - 5287 (45.82%) Pikachu - 6252 (54.18%) Pretty large split on Ganondorf/Vivi. While Ganondorf did about 3.5% better with registered users, Vivi managed to barely win the anonymous user vote. Rally spillover might have affected things here since both matches yesterday only got 45.51% registered users, which is much lower than normal for this contest. Seems like there might have been a decent amount of rally spillover from the rally attempts for Tifa. Pikachu puts up another huge performance with registered users, doing nearly 4% better with registered users. Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Averia posted... Let's not rewrite the past, plenty of people believed the rallies could be stopped. Averia you are right about this. It's 20-20 hindsight now, we all believe now that it was obvious Undertale was going to win after round 1/2. But at the time, it was very uncertain GJ BK_Sheikah |
ZeldaTPLink posted... But yeah I get it. Very good point. Kirby has been fairly solid since 2005 (ironically, the close loss to Bowser), but he does seem to overperform when there are more contestants in the match. UltimaterializerX posted... ShatteredElysium posted...I mean Bowser has been stronger than Kirby in every recorded xstat we have. We're surprised by this result I think because of what Kirby has done this contest but maybe we shouldn't be given all the past results we have Again, Ulti manages to take something that has nothing to do with him and makes it all about him and things he hates. I bet all the Bowser voters are Hillary fans who think Shadow of the Colossus is "true art", too. ExThaNemesis posted... Full marks to Ulti for calling exactly this, by the way. Even if it makes zero sense. Don't encourage him! "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. |
TEN PEOPLE at 158. 9 of them made the leaderboard. I am the one who got left off. FMLLLLL "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
it's okay I'm going to miss the first five matches this round at bare minimum |
ONE PERSON away from the leaderboard siiiighhh. I will hopefully get 2/2 tomorrow. If Tifa beats Luigi I'll get on there no doubt. "undertale hangs out with mido" - ZFS Not changing this sig until CM Punk returns to the WWE |
Go away Red. You need to end up lower than this so Princess Peach can be the #2 in the division. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Just want to say that if Ulti said that, it would be the furthest thing from the truth! |
After
what happened to Tifa, I wouldn't be surprised if Bowsette boost really
is a thing. Porn might impact some more matches if someone tries to
rally that way. |
Yesterday's X-Stats: Division 1 Ganondorf – 50.00% Vivi – 48.04% Dante – 43.60% Donkey Kong – 43.26% Chun-Li – 41.09% Leon Kennedy – 38.35% Tidus – 37.26% Spyro the Dragon – 36.02% Lightning – 29.98% Cuphead – 24.77% Yu Narukami – 24.13% Dragonborn – 24.02% Aya Brea – 23.59% Neku Sakuraba – 21.40% Victor Sullivan – 19.08% Chloe Price – 15.48% Division 2 Pikachu – 50.00% Yoshi – 45.20% Zero – 43.44% Knuckles the Echidna – 38.10% Kratos – 36.59% Wario – 34.53% Scorpion – 33.59% Zidane Tribal – 32.92% Master Hand – 26.96% Velvet Crowe – 26.55% Monika – 24.47% Shantae – 23.26% Noctis Lucis Caelum – 22.89% Primrose – 22.43% James Sunderland – 20.69% John Marston – 19.63% |
Evillordexdeath posted... I think that Kirby has always done better in multi-way polls, so something like a "sore thumb factor" seems reasonable. Oh crap. I totally forgot about that theory. Seems quite reasonable. Pokemonz do better in multi-ways too, he might be like them somehow. |
POkefEar |
also the good news about this Red/Alucard result is that Godot won't be the weakest character in this division well as long as Alucard stops tanking percentage |
also for some fun comparisons in the divisions between related characters Tidus gets 59.77% on Lightning Vivi gets 68.80% on Lightning Lightning gets 60.66% on Aya DK gets 58.37% on Spyro Sully gets 59.43% on Chloe Yoshi gets 61.80% on Wario Yoshi gets 70.18% on Master Hand Zidane gets 65.23% on Noctis |
Who would have called Teedus and Spyro being a toss up in this contest? Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40 |
I
still don't buy it is. I'm not believing Chun vs Ganondorf until I see
Chun-Li deliver against something on the paygrade of where that would
STATS her at No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
and if Ganondorf = Pikachu: Yoshi gets 52.15% on DK Dante gets 50.18% on Zero Leon gets 50.33% on Knuckles Kratos gets 50.78% on Spyro Chun-Li gets 59.13% on Scorpion Tidus gets 55.82% on Zidane Lightning gets 61.82% on Noctis Velvet gets 54.55% on Narukami James Sunderland gets 62.59% on Chloe |
Almost all those results look plausible to me. Pika vs Ganondorf barnburner in the making??? No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
What does DK get on Chun-Li? Because 2013 stats say she gets 46.91% on him! https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... What does DK get on Chun-Li? According to these stats, she gets 47.49%, so pretty close! |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Nanis23 posted...UltimaterializerX posted...show hidden quote(s)Oh look, Bowser has the same exact lead on Kirby that he had in 2005. As I said, Kirby has had zero reason to close this gap. Where is your mom from? Lopen posted... Fun fact if Kirby moves the % in the other direction the same amount Bowser did in the positive direction on the so called "no reason to doubt this match result changing ever" match he wins. Yes good post. This match was up in the air. |
if you picked the winner correctly then the result was obvious Tifa > X therefore was obvious |
I think there were theories that could work to pick Bowser > Kirby I just don't feel people really presented them To me what's feeling most likely is there's a hierarchy in the Nintendo food chain that the diehard regulars to this Nintendo dominated site adhere to and as such Kirby is going to get flayed in SFF matches when vote totals tank like this year. But no one argued that. That's just hindsight trying to make sense of something that doesn't really. I feel like most internally consistent arguments presented would have Charizard or Kirby winning here. Strangely Charizard was a pretty big underdog vs Kirby OR Bowser for reasons I don't entirely understand but whatever. Clearly all that Charizard is a fraud rhetoric got to people. I mean it got to me too but you know me I love betting against Pokemon No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
well I feel like Bowser would've beaten Charizard in a fair fight in 2010 too but maybe that's just me |
I think people just got too caught up thinking 2B had to be weak or Phoenix Wright had to be strongish. CBX - Today's Winners: Big Boss and Bowser Score: 154/208 |
I got more caught up in how strong it would make Ness and Shadow look personally and the fact that this means Cayde-6 doesn't totally suck |
LeonhartFour posted... I got more caught up in how strong it would make Ness and Shadow look personally Is Cayde-6 not the weakest member of the division now? ...is it Joel? https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Alucard's been pulling away the last few hours. If he doesn't do something overnight, he could be in big trouble. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
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