Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1303 GameFAQs Contests

MMX won that hour by 8 votes.

65% on John Price vs 61% on Zack Fair

Round 1 in 2010 is more than enough to put it to rest imo. No need to do things like compare 2010 to 2004

LeonhartFour posted...

Division 6

Geralt – 50.00%
Bayonetta – 49.12%
Simon Belmont – 47.81%
Pac-Man – 47.09%
Ryu Hayabusa – 47.06%
Rosalina – 43.97%
Riku – 34.97%
Sans – 26.96%

What a wild division to see so many characters that close to each other. And LOL Riku for not being one of them.

john price is totally untested he could be a monster you don’t know

Lopen posted...

Round 1 in 2010 is more than enough to put it to rest imo.

I've given the edge to Classic since he got in Smash, but that's a silly thing to say given all we've seen throughout the history of these contests. You're putting the debate to bed based on a single R1 match?

Eh, Lopen is right though. I never felt that X was on par with MM, he was probably at worst #12 on the site, and was unquestionably a top 15 character though.

I'd argue that single R1 match and the start of Ryu vs MMX vs Draven were way more evidence than the other side of the fence had, really. The rest is just all trying to explain SFF splits we've historically seen and not seen with Mega Man stuff and jumping between years and it's just muddy. Just take the most direct stuff we've seen with minimal BS to account for and the difference between the two has been fairly pronounced.

Like you can twist an argument for MM = X but I feel like you wouldn't be trying that if not for the name and the design. But Mega Man fans aren't dumb and there is a difference between the characters.

Lopen posted...

65% on John Price vs 61% on Zack Fair

Round 1 in 2010 is more than enough to put it to rest imo. No need to do things like compare 2010 to 2004

You keep focusing on this one match involving a character with very few other appearances.

Mega's 61% on Zack was actually Round 2, the same round that X got 61% on Red. Who is clearly stronger than Zack.

I think the real conclusion to be drawn here is that Price wasn't nearly as bad as we thought he was! Of course, I have to use past tense because 2015 Games was proof enough that CoD fell hard.

Red in 2010 was equal to Ocelot, who is absolutely weaker than Zack.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Red. Who is clearly stronger than Zack.

The same Red who got 50.16% on Revolver Ocelot that year?

Nope.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I've given the edge to Classic since he got in Smash, but that's a silly thing to say given all we've seen throughout the history of these contests. You're putting the debate to bed based on a single R1 match?

then how about being worth 62% on Ocelot?

of course people got to claim Link SFF'd him the round after but it's looking more like he didn't SFF him at all

Can someone explain to me what the point of a losers bracket is? I have link beating mario in the normal final but then I have Mario winning that and losing to link again

Why bother having a final final?

Surely the last match should be winner(link) vs a bonus character? I would like to see a non exclusive video games character or something.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Can someone explain to me what the point of a losers bracket is? I have link beating mario in the normal final but then I have Mario winning that and losing to link again

Why bother having a final final?

Surely the last match should be winner(link) vs a bonus character? I would like to see a non exclusive video games character or something.

Its pretty standard double elimination style bracket making. You see it very commonly in sports and esports tournaments.

Are people really trying to say 2010 Red > Zack? Wow.

also it's looking like Red 2013 was the fluke

I expect Alucard to expose him next round

The EU vote won't be as effective once the UK officially leaves it.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Can someone explain to me what the point of a losers bracket is? I have link beating mario in the normal final but then I have Mario winning that and losing to link again

Why bother having a final final?

Surely the last match should be winner(link) vs a bonus character? I would like to see a non exclusive video games character or something.

Its pretty standard double elimination style bracket making. You see it very commonly in sports and esports tournaments.

Yeah I know but in an esports there’s close matchups and there’s chance to avenge some losses

I just don’t see the point of it.

I like the idea of a losers bracket without link but the final final match is a bit pointless.

Can someone explain why MMX = Tifa (as this current result is showing) would conclusively disprove MMX = pre-Smash 4 MM?

I mean we don't have a good reading on Tifa either, since she always run into Sephiroth and Samus. I recall she put up 44% on Sephiroth in 2010 and 45% on Samus in 2013. There could be shenanigans there from SFF/TJF or whatever, but these seem to me like reasonable pre-SFF numbers for normal MM to put up.

I'm seeing this match more as confirmation that Tifa's legit than MMX being a giant fraud.

LeonhartFour posted...

also it's looking like Red 2013 was the fluke

I expect Alucard to expose him next round

Red had everything going for him in 2013. Pokemon was at an all time high especially in previous times with charizard and squirt mile absolutetly bossing everything.

Now red is just a higher end mid carder at best.

Charizard was not bossing anything in 2013 - he was embarrassing himself. Every other Pokemon entrant did the bossing.

squexa posted...

Can someone explain why MMX = Tifa (as this current result is showing) would conclusively disprove MMX = pre-Smash 4 MM?

I mean we don't have a good reading on Tifa either, since she always run into Sephiroth and Samus. I recall she put up 44% on Sephiroth in 2010 and 45% on Samus in 2013. There could be shenanigans there from SFF/TJF or whatever, but these seem to me like reasonable pre-SFF numbers for normal MM to put up.

I'm seeing this match more as confirmation that Tifa's legit than MMX being a giant fraud.

Tifa is getting a lot of female casual votes. Same with Aeris.

The problem with the losers bracket in this contest is that one point of them in tournaments is to avoid rematches, not deliberately set them up again.

Like the loser of Mario/Div8/ vs. Div7/Samus would face whoever won the losers match of Link/Division 1 vs. Mega Man/Division 2.

Bacon is just bad at bracketing, so he took an idea that works and made it dumb and bad by not getting how it actually works.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Bacon is just bad at _____, so he took an idea that works and made it dumb and bad by not getting how it actually works.

Sounds like Bacon as usual then.

I do think Mega Man from any year SHOULD be able to beat Tifa without much trouble, but I was also itching to take a Tifa > Sonic upset for years after she amazed everyone in 2006. She's strong so who knows.

Once again, I do think Classic has the edge in strength now (unsure if it was always so), but I'd probably still gamble on the X upset if they ever actually ran into each other.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

While the effect of Europe is limited. A 51.5-48.5 match is exactly the kind of close match where it might matter. With that said, Mega Man fans have successfully outrallied a Pokemon in the past. Tifa likely loses if it is close at the end.

What match was that?

And people extolling about how 'important' the EU vote is are just as crazy as anyone claiming the predominantly Mega Man South America vote would be.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5261-character-battle-ix-division-9-final-mega-man-vs-zero-mmx-vs

Mega Man and Charizard got into a rally war at the end. Mega Man won.

So Player 2 is beating MMX/Tifa, huh.

Lame.

Lopen posted...

im317 posted...

X really needs to keep building this lead. has me worried about taking Mega Man on a run after he loses to Link.

X and Mega Man aren't the same guy. No real reason to doubt Mega Man here. The theory of X = Mega Man has always been a bit of a stretch if you actually look at match results.

no i mean if X is to weak to beat Tifa then my taking Mega Man to make match #148 is probably at least one bridge to far.

Here's some example of night vote turnarounds that have happened so far:

Ocelot vs. DeDeDe
DDD peaked at a 206 vote lead at 12:56 AM, lost by 300, for a 506 vote turnaround

Geralt vs. Bayonetta
Bayonetta peaked at a 259 vote lead at 1:59 AM, lost by 548, for a 807 vote turnaround

Geralt vs. Simon
Simon peaked at a 45 vote lead at 8:45 PM, lost by 1289, for a 1334 vote turnaround

Shepard vs. King K. Rool
K. Rool peaked at an 80 vote lead at 1:45 AM, lost by 707, for a 787 vote turnaround

Garrus vs. Ramza
Ramza's lead peaked at 256 at 1:11 AM, lost by 359, for a 615 vote turnaround

swirIdude posted...

Charizard was not bossing anything in 2013 - he was embarrassing himself. Every other Pokemon entrant did the bossing.

I forgot but I’m taking about the year charizard did boss and smashed bowser

Anyway, Tifa had better keep stalling for dear life. The issue with the current trends is that North America doesn't stop being a factor for a long time. She's got like 3 hours left before her best time really arrives.

Division 5/6, Round 3

Squall Leonhart vs. Zelda
Registered Vote Result:
Squall Leonhart - 3540 (35.84%)
Zelda - 6337 (64.16%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Squall Leonhart - 4305 (38.14%)
Zelda - 6982 (61.86%)

Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough
Registered Vote Result:
Fox McCloud - 4736 (47.94%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 5143 (52.06%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Fox McCloud - 5212 (46.17%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 6076 (53.83%)

Geralt vs. Bayonetta
Registered Vote Result:
Geralt - 4936 (49.95%)
Bayonetta - 4945 (50.05%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Geralt - 5927 (52.51%)
Bayonetta - 5361 (47.49%)

Auron vs. Sub-Zero
Registered Vote Result:
Auron - 5599 (56.67%)
Sub-Zero - 4281 (43.33%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Auron - 6411 (56.79%)
Sub-Zero - 4878 (43.21%)

Zelda had about a 5.5 point difference between registered/anonymous users in the match against Ezio, but Zelda only gets a 2.3 point advantage over Squall with the registered users. Bracket voting could have been a factor here since Squall had over 50% of the brackets.

Fox was nearly 2% better with registered users, but still didn't win the registered user vote over Aerith. Anyone banking on registered user votes swinging this match were let down by this result.

Bayonetta just barely won the registered user vote and also performed about 2.5% better with the registered users. Still wasn't anywhere close to swinging this match over to Bayonetta.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I do think Mega Man from any year SHOULD be able to beat Tifa without much trouble, but I was also itching to take a Tifa > Sonic upset for years after she amazed everyone in 2006. She's strong so who knows.

Once again, I do think Classic has the edge in strength now (unsure if it was always so), but I'd probably still gamble on the X upset if they ever actually ran into each other.

I think Classic wins easy. Fans prefer X for the same reasons Knuckles, Frog, and Yoshi always win favorites polls but would get wrecked by the king in a 1v1 match.

I think Mega Man X the game easily crushes any Mega Man game, but I think people have a lot more attachment to characters called Mega Man than to X himself.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think Classic wins easy. Fans prefer X for the same reasons Knuckles, Frog, and Yoshi always win favorites polls but would get wrecked by the king in a 1v1 match.

Closest thing we've gotten to a Sonic character poll was this one:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/581-

Although that was a Sonic Adventure series character poll. It's been so long since that poll that I wish we'd get a proper Sonic character poll again.

Like people gave a ton of money to a guy who draws things to make a video game more or less out of spite to defend the honor of Mega Man.

I wouldn't put MMX is on MM's level, but I would certainly put MMX above Zero's level. I see no reason to change my estimations on MMX (37% on 2010 Link) in this match considering that I would take Tifa over Zero easily.

In regards to MMX vs Captain John Price. That result is just strange no matter how you look at it. Even if MMX is weaker than Mega Man, that still puts John Price way higher than it feels like he should be.

Yeah, it's looking like X/Tifa could be our closest match of the closest thus far. X is looking A LOT healthier than others in his unenviable position of leading but staring at the upcoming Europe death vote.

I think Tifa wins with ~50.4% based on past trends.

Haste_2 posted...

I wouldn't put MMX is on MM's level, but I would certainly put MMX above Zero's level. I see no reason to change my estimations on MMX (37% on 2010 Link) in this match considering that I would take Tifa over Zero easily.

I *highly* doubt Zero could beat MMX.

Yeah I'm not currently liking the widening vote gap right now. If it keeps up she won't have time to utilize her UK vote of...

68%? What, did Mega Man personally go around and murder a member of every UK family?

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah I'm not currently liking the widening vote gap right now. If it keeps up she won't have time to utilize her UK vote of...

68%? What, did Mega Man personally go around and murder a member of every UK family?

if X wasnt winning in Canada i would think it was some kind of crown effect as hes got 62.79% against him in Australia as well.

yeah this is getting bad

come on Tifa

I was told there would be Tifa cuts

davidponte posted...

I was told there would be Tifa cuts

KamikazePotato posted...

Anyway, Tifa had better keep stalling for dear life. The issue with the current trends is that North America doesn't stop being a factor for a long time. She's got like 3 hours left before her best time really arrives.

At this rate she's going to be way too behind to come back, though

Yeah, I think that's game.

Really bad contest to be a fan of Square.

wow wtf is there a rally going?

Now MMX is putting up some good numbers. It's nowhere near enough to confident through the day, but it's enough that it should be tight down the wire.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

I think the new start time ruins the trends. By beginning the match during a highly active voting period, it makes votals more frontloaded overall, so trends are weaker and the matches are less exciting.

The vote totals are certainly more frontloaded overall compared to the 12:00 AM start time. I went back and calculated what percentage of the total votes are submitted on average by the 1 hour point and 12 hour point in the match.

With the 12:00 AM start time from the 2017 contest:
After 1 hour - 9.90%
After 12 hours - 59.79%

With the 8:00 PM start time:
After 1 hour - 11.94%
After 12 hours - 62.65%

With the 7:00 PM start time:
After 1 hour - 11.97%
After 12 hours - 63.57%

For this contest, the numbers are based off the raw votes, without the registered user bonus applied. The 7:00 PM starting time actually has an even higher percentage of the total votes being submitted by the 12 hour point compared to the 8:00 PM starting time.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I think Mega Man X the game easily crushes any Mega Man game, but I think people have a lot more attachment to characters called Mega Man than to X himself.

I thought this is general consensus.

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah, I think that's game.

Really bad contest to be a fan of Square.

yeah looking like Seph and Auron might be the only Square characters to escape this bracket

come on Vivi