Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1303 GameFAQs Contests

If you average out the last few updates of ridiculous swings, it looks vaguely normal!

for the record Vincent got 59.84% on KOS-MOS in 2013

maybe she just wasn't as bad as we thought...!

KOS-MOS was very frontloaded in her first 2 matches of this contest, so she will definitely drop overnight and during the day. Ryu will look better by the end of this match.

Oh apparently I'm 1 point off the leaderboard. Don't think I've made the leaderboard this contest. Have Tifa today. Not like it will matter though as I had Squall and Sora as division winnners.

Does Luigi have better odds against X or Tifa?

QJD1381 posted...

Does Luigi have better odds against X or Tifa?

Probably x because of possible sff and his poor showing today making it clear he isn't on level with mega man.

I think that the winner of this match should be the favorite against Luigi either way. I doubt either result helps him much.

Yesterday's X-Stats:

Division 5

Zelda – 50.00%
Squall Leonhart – 36.68%
The Boss – 29.30%
Garrus Vakarian – 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve – 26.06%
Metal Sonic – 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67%
Hat Kid – 17.69%

Aerith Gainsborough – 50.00%
Fox McCloud – 47.30%
Jill Valentine – 43.42%
Waluigi – 42.57%
Captain Toad – 40.01%
Shovel Knight – 37.95%
D. Va – 26.94%
Aloy – 25.36%

Division 6

Geralt – 50.00%
Bayonetta – 49.12%
Simon Belmont – 47.81%
Pac-Man – 47.09%
Ryu Hayabusa – 47.06%
Rosalina – 43.97%
Riku – 34.97%
Sans – 26.96%

Auron – 50.00%
Vincent Valentine – 44.20%
Sub-Zero – 43.29%
Magus – 42.53%
Lucina – 34.56%
Shulk – 32.41%
Claire Redfield – 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya – 27.12%

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3826-hyrule-division-round-3-link-vs-mega-man-x

If MMX didn't even fold completely to Link, I doubt Luigi can pull any SFF weirdness on him.

I think Luigi has a pretty good shot against either one

X because he could win the SFF split and bury him pretty hard.
Tifa because I could buy him just being stronger than her if X is where I think he is.

I do like his chances a bit better against X but I could also see X rSFFing him so it's kinda tough either way.

obviously Luigi's chances are better against the one who loses because they'd be weaker

but he doesn't get to face that one

I guess I'd say if the margin of victory expands, which seems unlikely, I prefer Luigi vs X

If it keeps closer I prefer Luigi vs Tifa

is amaterasu supposed to be this strong?

Sephiroth has been rising in percentage fairly steadily over the past hour. He's up more than 2% from where he was at 7:35, which was about when the trend started.

PoIl6177 posted...

is amaterasu supposed to be this strong?

I assume Sephiroth's horrible board vote is what's causing this.

I didn't expect her to be stronger than Captain Falcon, though.

5 minute X-Stats:

Division 7

Luigi – 50.00%
Frog – 38.37%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 27.46%
Master Chief – 24.44%
Nathan Drake – 23.76%
Miles Edgeworth – 22.53%
Monokuma – 18.13%
Goro Majima – 15.16%

Tifa Lockhart – 50.00%
Mega Man X – 50.00%
Mewtwo – 41.90%
Revolver Ocelot – 31.59%
GlaDOS – 31.44%
King Dedede – 31.28%
Geno – 26.81%
Isabelle – 19.35%

Division 8

Sephiroth – 50.00%
Amaterasu – 42.06%
Lara Croft – 37.93%
Captain Falcon – 35.07%
Albert Wesker – 29.72%
Richter Belmont – 27.78%
Metal Man – 24.36%
Draven – 9.97%

Ryu – 50.00%
KOS-MOS – 39.59%
Ellie – 36.07%
Aqua – 33.75%
Commander Shepard – 33.45%
King K. Rool – 32.63%
Lloyd Irving – 31.56%
Quiet – 24.22%

LeonhartFour posted...

5 minute X-Stats:
Aqua – 33.75%
Commander Shepard – 33.45%

LOL

The only thing I'm really wondering is: Why is KOS-MOS this strong?

Is she the strongest character we have from a trilogy that virtually no one has played?

Advokaiser posted...

The only thing I'm really wondering is: Why is KOS-MOS this strong?

Is she the strongest character we have from a trilogy that virtually no one has played?

Xenoblade 2

Adopted Nintendo character now

LeonhartFour posted...

Division 8

Draven – 9.97%

It took a while, but we finally managed to put him under double digits.

X really needs to keep building this lead. has me worried about taking Mega Man on a run after he loses to Link.

Advokaiser posted...

The only thing I'm really wondering is: Why is KOS-MOS this strong?

Is she the strongest character we have from a trilogy that virtually no one has played?

I think many people have actually played it but the series has enough mixed reception to where its hard to get it in a contest

But KOSMOS has always been popular for being badass attractive robot waifu

She does some cool memorable things

How bad did Chloe look in her 8-pack's stats?

CaptainOfCrush posted...

How bad did Chloe look in her 8-pack's stats?

15.48% on Ganondorf

too high imhotbqh

im317 posted...

X really needs to keep building this lead. has me worried about taking Mega Man on a run after he loses to Link.

X and Mega Man aren't the same guy. No real reason to doubt Mega Man here. The theory of X = Mega Man has always been a bit of a stretch if you actually look at match results.

LeonhartFour posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

How bad did Chloe look in her 8-pack's stats?

15.48% on Ganondorf

too high imhotbqh

Oh man, and a good chance of going through Ganon/Link SFF. If Link 80/20s Ganon, doesn't that put her at like 6% raw?

And it would be raw indeed.

Yep, Ganon getting 20% on Link would put Chloe at 6.19% on Link

still a little too high

Ugh would have voted for Seph if it had occurred to me that I was helping Draven’s xstats by voting for Ammy...!

There's a realistic chance that Draven still has to go through Link/Mario SFF, so he still has some ways to fall.

f***

Is there a consensus on how this Tifa MMX match is going to fall yet?

Tifa looks like she's eviscerating him in Eurasia, so I think she's a definite favorite.

Feel really good about Tifa winning, personally. X needed a good lead early to have a chance. I think the number KP set was lead of 400 before Europe wakes up and that seemed like a good conservative one to me for it to be in the air, with Tifa having the edge at a lower lead and X having the edge with a higher one.

Advokaiser posted...

The only thing I'm really wondering is: Why is KOS-MOS this strong?

Is she the strongest character we have from a trilogy that virtually no one has played?

SJWFF

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Tifa looks like she's eviscerating him in Eurasia, so I think she's a definite favorite.

Everyone always says that and acts surprised when the NA vote kicks in again. Winning big in Europe only gets you so far, since only a fraction of total votes come from that area, and MMX is comfortably winning in NA.

While the effect of Europe is limited. A 51.5-48.5 match is exactly the kind of close match where it might matter. With that said, Mega Man fans have successfully outrallied a Pokemon in the past. Tifa likely loses if it is close at the end.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Tifa looks like she's eviscerating him in Eurasia, so I think she's a definite favorite.

Everyone always says that and acts surprised when the NA vote kicks in again. Winning big in Europe only gets you so far, since only a fraction of total votes come from that area, and MMX is comfortably winning in NA.

The second NA vote is heavily diluted now though due to match start time being when EU is still awake and votes only trickling in at that point.

LeonhartFour posted...

Yesterday's X-Stats:

Division 5

Zelda – 50.00%
Squall Leonhart – 36.68%
The Boss – 29.30%
Garrus Vakarian – 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve – 26.06%
Metal Sonic – 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67%
Hat Kid – 17.69%

Aerith Gainsborough – 50.00%
Fox McCloud – 47.30%
Jill Valentine – 43.42%
Waluigi – 42.57%
Captain Toad – 40.01%
Shovel Knight – 37.95%
D. Va – 26.94%
Aloy – 25.36%

Division 6

Geralt – 50.00%
Bayonetta – 49.12%
Simon Belmont – 47.81%
Pac-Man – 47.09%
Ryu Hayabusa – 47.06%
Rosalina – 43.97%
Riku – 34.97%
Sans – 26.96%

Auron – 50.00%
Vincent Valentine – 44.20%
Sub-Zero – 43.29%
Magus – 42.53%
Lucina – 34.56%
Shulk – 32.41%
Claire Redfield – 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya – 27.12%

So what percentage does Auron have to get for Joker > Riku?

Because honestly I still don't think Geralt is actually strong. That's probably one of the least impressive Round 4 appearances ever, on par with Scorpion 2002.

getting kind of difficult for Tifa

Yeah, the first several hours of the match are essentially the ASV now. You don't see much movement once you hit the traditional ASV part of the match toward the end anymore.

heck Big Boss beat Red outright with it the other day

Team Rocket Elite posted...

While the effect of Europe is limited. A 51.5-48.5 match is exactly the kind of close match where it might matter. With that said, Mega Man fans have successfully outrallied a Pokemon in the past. Tifa likely loses if it is close at the end.

What match was that?

And people extolling about how 'important' the EU vote is are just as crazy as anyone claiming the predominantly Mega Man South America vote would be.

It would be disappointing for Geralt's 8pack to give us all these fun matches only to get unceremoniously 65'd by Auron.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

And people extolling about how 'important' the EU vote is are just as crazy as anyone claiming the predominantly Mega Man South America vote would be.

except Europe actually does contribute a notable percentage of the votes

it's how Phoenix beat Ike despite Ike dominating the match in North America

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, the first several hours of the match are essentially the ASV now. You don't see much movement once you hit the traditional ASV part of the match toward the end anymore.

heck Big Boss beat Red outright with it the other day

I may be misremembering, and I'm far too lazy to look it up, but I seem to recall Big Boss having an abnormally balanced voting trend compared to other MGS characters. IIRC the thinking was Smash voters confusing him for Snake

Can't wait for BlAcK TuRtLe to reach the bargaining step.

Lopen posted...

im317 posted...

X really needs to keep building this lead. has me worried about taking Mega Man on a run after he loses to Link.

X and Mega Man aren't the same guy. No real reason to doubt Mega Man here. The theory of X = Mega Man has always been a bit of a stretch if you actually look at match results.

You mean the theory of Mega Man = X, right? Pretty sure that 2013 was the only contest X has been in where he technically looked weaker than MM, and that's because rally characters have no consistency and Round 2 Draven was the strongest Draven.

X has looked weaker than Mega Man in literally every contest. People just try to explain it away with SFF.

65% on John Price never forget.

Ryu would've exposed him in 2013 if not for Draven...!

He wouldn't have won based on the opening vote, of course, but he would've pushed 46-47% on him based on trends.

I think the new start time ruins the trends. By beginning the match during a highly active voting period, it makes votals more frontloaded overall, so trends are weaker and the matches are less exciting.

Lopen posted...

X has looked weaker than Mega Man in literally every contest. People just try to explain it away with SFF.

65% on John Price never forget.

Literally put up a better number on 2010 Link than Mega Man did on 2004 Link.

Took the combined strength of Link and Mario to do him in in 2008 when Mega Man folded to an inanimate object.

"Try to explain it away with SFF?" MMX stood up to Link almost as well as Mario did in 2010, the same Mario that got 58.38% on Mega Man two rounds earlier. The only SFFsplaining in this rivalry is people making excuses for why Mega Man consistently winds up behind X in the raw X-Stats.

Previous contests have at least made it look like they're close, but even with Mega relegated to the Legends bracket, this contest has made it painfully obvious that "Mega Man SNES" would indeed do exactly what you'd expect him to do to "Mega Man NES"--KICK HIS f***ING ASS!