GameFAQs Contests

Vyse was thought to be stronger than he was exposed to be when he was the fodder line

Pretty sure the theory behind the fodder line is basically "this guy is going to beat you decisively if you're fodder." If you can get it closer than like 53-47 you may not be fodder. Like they need to be slightly strong because they need to be able to beat all fodder comers to keep them under the line.

well he was pretty consistent in 2003 and 2004 with his performances on DK and Cloud

I don't know that he was suddenly just exposed for bad fodder by Tifa of all characters

Regarding tomorrow's matches, I made some calculations as to what might happen regarding Vivi vs. Donkey Kong.

The best scenario for Donkey Kong (within reason) allows for a 54% win against Vivi. This is assuming Tidus 2018 = Tidus 2010 (which is pretty generous if you ask me) and that Vivi 2018 = Vivi 2010.

The best scenario for Vivi allows for 65% (this is a bit of stretch) win for Vivi. This is assuming the Vivi/Squall proportion in their 2013 match is correct, and calculating Vivi based on Squall's 2010 x-stat, and a less generous x-stat to DK. A far more reasonable upper limit for Vivi would be 62% on DK by using the 2013 x-stat in KKP's x-stats. It's reasonable because it predicts VIvi's scores on Yu and Vivi with almost spot-on accuracy.

Using the most generous x-stats for DK and KKP's Vivi x-stat allows Vivi to win with 59% of the vote. But is this overly generous to Vivi? Possibly, because Zidane didn't exactly impress this contest.

Is SFF common in RPG vs. RPG matches, assuming they are not both characters from the same series? It seems that CT didn't SFF DQ8. And that Cloud didn't SFF Vyse. I think Magus SFFed Luca Blight somewhat, though. I'm just not sure whether Vivi's estimated 2013 strength actually applies to 2018....the numbers suggest it, but I'm just worried they may just be a coincidence....

UltimaterializerX posted...

The concept of a fodder line seems dumb to me because a character that can win a match isn't fodder by definition.

See: Serious Sam.

but any character can win if they're put against someone weak enough

like Velvet Crowe is total fodder

Exactly my point.

Which is why Draven is the perfect, and most ironic, example for a fodder line.

Would definitely take KOS-MOS over Lloyd. Probably over Isaac too, honestly.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Which is why Draven is the perfect, and most ironic, example for a fodder line.

I think the word you're looking for is worthless, not ironic.

Alternatively, the word you're looking for is worthless, not fodder.

Cecil Harvey = new fodder line

The problem is that nobody can really agree on where to draw the line to determine's who is "weak".

I think it's better to have an arbitrary x-stat (for example, 20% on 2010 Link) and try to find a character that is near that x-stat that has some consistency. But maybe we should wait until the end of the contest to decide who's the best candidate for the fodder line, because I'd rather not have to rely on data that are eight years old...

even Draven can win a match if like... that other LOL character was placed against him

MoogleKupo141 posted...

even Draven can win a match if like... that other LOL character was placed against him

May we never see Teemo again.

Every LoL character would beat Draven because he'd get anti-voted more.

But the idea of "this character can't beat anyone" being a fodder line is stupid. That's got a better more to the point name it's called "the weakest character"

UltimaterializerX posted...

Exactly my point.

Which is why Draven is the perfect, and most ironic, example for a fodder line.

it also completely defeats the purpose of the discussion we're having

Isaac has gotten into every character battle since the field was expanded in 2007. I don't think he's going anywhere any time soon.

Don't think he boosts unless he gets playable in Smash (good luck with that) or gets a new game people actually like (they already tried and failed at that in 2010). Golden Sun may be nostalgic but it's not something that I think's gonna win many new converts in 2018. But as long as this site remains full of people that remember playing his game back in their youth when it was almost the only new GBA RPG for like a year and a half and then eagerly anticipated and played its sequel, he probably won't notably decline.

And more subjectively, I feel he's the most gamefaqs-y, culturally irrelevant guy we have that's not terrible. He doesn't have TJF or Pac-Man Apathy or anything like that either to potentially help him either. If gamefaqs actually knows and cares about you, you really shouldn't lose to him. A lot of this site knows who he is but I don't think he's particularly beloved. (Except by KP I guess?)

And I don't know about 20% on 2010 Link since Isaac that year was stuck behind weirdos like L-block and Charizard, but Isaac was first suggested as the potential fodder line for a reason; he was pretty close to 20% on Link in both 2003 and 2013.

-2003 Isaac was behind Link/Samus SFF but if you adjust for that by setting Samus to the 40.99% she got on Cloud in 2004, you get Isaac as worth 20.87% on 2003 Link.
-2013 Isaac got 22.2% on Snake straight up, which is 20.65% on Link using the bonus poll.

KamikazePotato posted...

Lopen posted...

Actually Lloyd is too weak too probably

KOS probably is a good gatekeeper since she actually wins a decent amount

I think Lloyd (and Isaac) could beat KOS-MOS. He just wasn't handed the easiest, weakest fourpack of the contest.

Isaac, yeah. Lloyd, I'm not so sure. Tales doesn't seem to keep strength for very long; Lloyd's lone win came when he was still a fairly new character, and then we got Velvet actually winning one this year and that's it for Tales characters winning. Golden Sun has actually performed admirably in character battles as well as in Games contests.

I think Lloyd wins KOS-MOS's pack

Probably not as easily though. Which could be a bad thing for KOS-MOS as the line holder if it turns out Aqua's x-stat extrapolation ends up where she looks like high fodder.

I prefer having a fodder line where punting fodder is less theoretical though. Vyse kinda got pitched as the fodder line because he punted Laharl iirc. Lloyd hasn't won a match since 2002 so who knows where he really is in terms of being able to beat opponents.

Isaac handled Estelle pretty easily!

LeonhartFour posted...

well he was pretty consistent in 2003 and 2004 with his performances on DK and Cloud

I don't know that he was suddenly just exposed for bad fodder by Tifa of all characters

Characters from "lesser" RPGs don't retain strength. He became irrelevant. Also, I still believe that Tifa's the #3 FFVII character and possibly the overall #3 FF character, no worse than #4.

Lopen posted...

I prefer having a fodder line where punting fodder is less theoretical though. Vyse kinda got pitched as the fodder line because he punted Laharl iirc.

He got pitched as the fodder line because he was close to 20% on Link/Cloud in 2003 and 2004 and that was kind of the number we decided on as the theoretical "fodder barrier"

so was Bomberman though

Lloyd winning a match in 2002 would've been very impressive considering he didn't exist yet...!

I got so overwhelmed by Lloyd's obsession with 2 swords that I put too many in the years.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

well he was pretty consistent in 2003 and 2004 with his performances on DK and Cloud

I don't know that he was suddenly just exposed for bad fodder by Tifa of all characters

Characters from "lesser" RPGs don't retain strength. He became irrelevant. Also, I still believe that Tifa's the #3 FFVII character and possibly the overall #3 FF character, no worse than #4.

After Vincent collapsed, I don't think Tifa has much competition for third strongest FF7 character. She might pass Sephiroth one day but that day probably hasn't come yet. Due to Squall's collapse and maybe Auron as well, Tifa might have third strongest FF character locked up. Even in a good year, Auron was only competitive with Tifa.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

well he was pretty consistent in 2003 and 2004 with his performances on DK and Cloud

I don't know that he was suddenly just exposed for bad fodder by Tifa of all characters

Characters from "lesser" RPGs don't retain strength.

Which is why Persona never wins anything.

so am I spacing out or is Tails a somewhat decent mid-carder now

fox's done well for himself

Ytterbicide posted...

so am I spacing out or is Tails a somewhat decent mid-carder now

we'll see next round

Frauds.

Shepard wanted to share his Draven stories with Ryu, but Ryu didn't care.

The fodder line is Link because all these garbage characters are fodder to him, hth

Not_Wylvane posted...

The fodder line is Link because all these garbage characters are fodder to him, hth

🐐🐐🐐

Anyway, throwing my two cents in for today's matches.

- I'm really happy with Sephiroth's performance today. Cloud scored just a hair under 70% on Falcon back in 2010, but Cloud's always been naturally stronger than Seph, and I believe that was a night match anyway. When factoring Falcon's probable increase since then, putting up 65% on him is great and reestablishes Seph as "strongest dude in the main bracket" imo. I think this win is more impressive than either Zelda or MMX's.

- God damn, sad say for Sheppard - and an even sadder day for Squall. Ryu is beating the Mass Effect main more soundly than Squall could manage against a ME side character. I'm not sure if I'm ready to take Ryu over Squall - and I'm certainly not ready to take Garrus over Shep - so I suppose it's time to wonder if Ryu is "generic human male SFFing" Shep. Ryu's the original "ordinary guy", soooooo mebbe?

Yeah I am sad about ME characters. ME Andromeda really messed everything up. Also I guess since Ryu is in Smash he gets that power boost too. Seems Ryu can beat Squall now? We need some stats guys to tell us if it is possible.

It seems downright likely if we assume Shepard is stronger than Garrus, or even if we set them as equals (which I think is too kind to Garrus).

I mean, I think Ryu would have always given Squall a spirited mid-40s fight, but he's never shown the type of strength required to get the job done until now.

Regarding Isaac:

https://i.imgtc.com/OmSQAfo.png

I took this poll on the Smash board (which is like 25% of the board traffic or some s***) just to see if people actually cared about Isaac and I guess they do

He'd be a good Fodder Line

So Tails beat Chief but Shadow lost to 2B. And Mewtwo lost to Tifa, alright I think I understand how modern day GFaqs operates.

Sephiroth's won the last few contests, so hopefully Zelda can turn the tables this year but it's looking unlikely...

ConsiderSudoku posted...

So Tails beat Chief but Shadow lost to 2B. And Mewtwo lost to Tifa, alright I think I understand how modern day GFaqs operates.

bunch of furries?

TJF

@CaptainOfCrush You mean he has won 1 contest which was the Villains contest.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Sephiroth's won the last few contests, so hopefully Zelda can turn the tables this year but it's looking unlikely...

I was out with friends last night and brought up the contest (they follow it very casually). I showed them yesterday's results. One dude looked at Tifa beating Mewtwo and went "ugh, Final Fantasy always wins."

Unreal.

Everybody knows that FF always wins.

I think a lot of gamers just presume that Final Fantasy should be less popular than something as old and widespread as Nintendo, and any large gaming community where Square is merely competitive can be misconstrued as dominance.

Mewtwo's been in cartoon shows, trading cards, and the world's top selling games for 20 years. Discounting cameos, Tifa's been in one big game. He'd probably stomp her anywhere else, so the fact that she can actually win here probably confuses people and causes them to inflate FF's strength.

To be fair if you look at things that way Zelda always wins should be a thing too, because it's way more popular here than it is relative to the mainstream as well.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

@Nanis23

Stats topic archive has been updated up to Part 1299.

@Team_Rocket_Elite Thank you!

Just now reading the posts from the start of today rounds..and..what

Last round - "oh my god Shepard sucks, almost losing to K. Rool, it's Mass Effect 3 fault"
Also last round - "oh my god Garrus sucks ass almost losing to Ramza, it's Andromeda fault"
And today "wow omg Ryu looks so strong" make up your mind people

But I do assume it's because Ryu is doing better against Shepard than Squall did on Garrus, which is curious

@Nanis23 This is what we say yeah. I mean the protagonist of a game is always stronger right? However we see that Zidane is weaker than Vivi and Tidus is weaker than Auron. But I can't believe that Shepard is weaker than Garrus.

Is there anything weird about Ryu > Squall ?
Considering the number of frauds that have been exposed this contest, Squall could be one more.

Squall doesn't really fit the definition of fraud even if he's dropped. Guy has delivered for years and years. The frauds are generally guys who did really well in 2013 that people would overestimate here if they took that performance at face value. Like no one calls Gordon Freeman or Ezio frauds.

Safer_777 posted...

@Nanis23 This is what we say yeah. I mean the protagonist of a game is always stronger right? However we see that Zidane is weaker than Vivi and Tidus is weaker than Auron. But I can't believe that Shepard is weaker than Garrus.

TBH with how "ordinary male characters" have been flopping all contest, Garrus might actually be stronger than Shepard now. Still don't buy it though.

Match XCVII: (1) Dante vs. (4) Ganondorf

Current Contest Performance

Dante
Defeated Cuphead, 71.59% - 28.41%
Defeated Lightning, 65.62% - 34.38%

Ganondorf
Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40%
Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09%

Analysis

Ganondorf’s performance against Chun-Li has so far been the most random performance in this contest. After watching Nintendo overperform against the field we have Ganondorf failing to break 59% against Chun-Li. Unless both Chun-Li and Spyro boosted at around the same rate, it’s hard to say that this isn’t a Ganondorf drop in strength. We couldn’t get an accurate reading of Ganondorf in 2013, so maybe Mario failed to SFF him and then he boosted, but then that leaves us questioning what happened between 2010 and 2013 where he got around 64% against Ken.

Overall, this puts Dante in a great position. His performance against Lightning suggests that he’s still an elite character. However, given what Crash did to Big Boss there is a chance that Spyro and Chun-Li were able to boost. Don’t ask me why in Chun-Li’s case. Of course, Ganondorf can still be weaker and win, but if it is anything significant than he’ll be in trouble.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ganondorf > Dante

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 51.15% - 48.85%




Match XCVIII: (3) Vivi vs. (10) Donkey Kong

Current Contest Performance

Vivi
Defeated Yu Narukami, 74.89% - 25.11%
Defeated Aya Brea, 75.45% - 24.55%

Donkey Kong
Defeated Tidus, 56.93% - 43.07%
Defeated Leon Kennedy, 55.67% - 44.33%

Analysis

This is the third time these two characters will meet. The second time, saw the match end within 1% of what we saw in the first match. This time, I feel things will be different. Donkey Kong is no doubt one of the stars of the contest. At worst he’s gone from a mid-carder to pushing into elite territory.

I was a big proponent of Vivi getting a boost and after two rounds I don’t really see it. There’s no doubt that Vivi still has strength, but after watching Donkey Kong win against two characters with similar strength to Vivi he is going to need a more than minor boost to win. It could still happen and to be honest, any of these four characters have a non-0% chance of winning this division.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Vivi > Leon Kennedy

charmander6000’s Prediction: Donkey Kong wins, 52.06% - 47.94%

Match XCIX: (1) Zero vs. (13) Wario

Current Contest Performance

Zero
Defeated Primrose, 74.18% - 25.82%
Defeated Knuckles the Echidna, 56.15% - 43.85%

Wario
Defeated Monika, 64.56% - 35.44%
Defeated Master Hand, 60.97% - 39.03%

Analysis

This is one of the easier matches of the contest. Wario was in a weak four-pack so while he looked good winning it, I’m not convinced that he has much strength to make this match interesting. As much as Super Smash Bros. Ultimate has boosted Nintendo characters it’s not going to be enough for him to cover the spread, especially against a character that can be considered pseudo-Nintendo.

While Knuckles does have strength, I feel last round pretty much killed Zero’s chances at winning the division. Though, I didn’t expect him to have a great chance. Personally, I don’t see Zero SFFing Wario, but I do expect him to comfortable win.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero > Noctis Lucis Caelum

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero wins, 63.26% - 36.74%




Match C: (3) Yoshi vs. (7) Pikachu

Current Contest Performance

Yoshi
Defeated Shantae, 74.27% - 25.73%
Defeated Velvet Crowe, 70.63% - 29.37%

Pikachu
Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59%
Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59%

Analysis

Despite two rounds, I’m not quite confident in pegging these two characters. For Yoshi, his entire four-pack had new characters so other than knowing that he can still crush fodder, not much is known. Pikachu on the other hand was up against characters who are suspected to be weaker, but it’s not conclusive.

If Scorpion and Kratos have remained at around the same strength, Pikachu’s performances would suggest he’s at the top of the elite tier, possibly taking down some of the weaker noble nine characters. That exactly isn’t too far from where we’re use to seeing him. Yoshi would need to hope that is not the case and to be ranked around his usual self. Regardless, the winner of this match will be the large favourite next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Yoshi > Pikachu

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pikachu wins, 52.63% - 47.37%