GameFAQs Contests

LeonhartFour posted...

I mean Metal Man would have to have gotten a lot more noms to go from a 13 to a 5...!

Fine, we'll go with the other metal board rally -- LEAGUE OF METAL SONIC is okay too.

Ninjaaaaaaaa'd!

HaRRicH and I are gonna be riding our metal rallies into our metal graves

So I guess user created match pics aren't a thing this Contest
.

I could see it becoming a thing once we get down to 2 matches per day, or we might have to wait until it's 1 match per day toward the very end.

After what Chun-Li did, I think a lot of this first match is Dante sucking really badly.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5238-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-dante-vs-squirtle-vs

Dante ended up largely skating by for this after what Squirtle went on to do later but I'm not sure he should have. Even letting Zidane get 43.58% on him was sort of acceptable given what Vivi did that contest, and by the end of the contest I figured this match was a sign of Zidane's growing strength.

We have since learned that as of 2018 Zidane is not particularly good. He did marginally worse on Knuckles than he did on 2013 Dante. Now Zero is currently showing us that Zidane is actually on par with friggin' Wario. At this point I figure it's likely I drew the wrong conclusion - 43.56% on Dante didn't mean that Zidane was good but probably rather that Dante had declined substantially due to the reboot and/or it having been too long since his last good game. There are some franchises and characters I can see maintaining high strength despite getting nothing worthwhile for years and years; I doubt Dante and Devil May Cry is among those. At this point Dante's looking like he's reverted to around his 2002-2004 levels when he was just a solid midcarder rather than the near-elite he became from 2005-2010 after DMC3.

LeonhartFour posted...

well to be fair the rally overflow during Wario/Monika did favor Master Hand and Knuckles a little bit

don't get me wrong Noct is still pathetic no matter how you slice it but yeah

I'd assume there will probably be some adjustments for Wario/Monika and the other 3 matches affected by rally spillover for the purpose of obtaining slightly better x-stat values. Using just the registered user results would be the easiest way to make the adjustments.

This is one of the few bracket changes I made last minute that actually paid off. Originally I had Dante > 'Dorf and had him taking the Division.

Too bad switching from Bayo to Riku was a disasterflop >_>
.

AxemRedRanger posted...

After what Chun-Li did, I think a lot of this first match is Dante sucking really badly.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5238-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-dante-vs-squirtle-vs

Dante ended up largely skating by for this after what Squirtle went on to do later but I'm not sure he should have. Even letting Zidane get 43.58% on him was sort of acceptable given what Vivi did that contest, and by the end of the contest I figured this match was a sign of Zidane's growing strength.

We have since learned that as of 2018 Zidane is not particularly good. He did marginally worse on Knuckles than he did on 2013 Dante. Now Zero is currently showing us that Zidane is actually on par with friggin' Wario. At this point I figure it's likely I drew the wrong conclusion - 43.56% on Dante didn't mean that Zidane was good but probably rather that Dante had declined substantially due to the reboot and/or it having been too long since his last good game. There are some franchises and characters I can see maintaining high strength despite getting nothing worthwhile for years and years; I doubt Dante and Devil May Cry is among those. At this point Dante's looking like he's reverted to around his 2002-2004 levels when he was just a solid midcarder rather than the near-elite he became from 2005-2010 after DMC3.

Here's the thing - Zidane's projected numbers on Zero aren't much lower than his projected numbers in 2013. If he's overrated, it wasn't by much. Dante probably dropped a bit but not to this degree.

Hate to admit it, but it's mostly just that Ganondorf was underrated in the stats. We haven't gotten decent data on him in years. Which means that Vivi is screwed next round and bleh.

Vivi's saving grace may be the theory that people see him as a unique Old Square character - and thus, more acceptable to Nintendo fans. I don't think the Zelda fanbase allows Ganon to lose to Squall, Auron, or Vincent anymore.

Still, the requisite raw strength seems just short for Vivi. Even if DK is beefed up, 55% on him shouldn't be enough against Mr. Zelda (Proxy) himself.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Vivi's saving grace may be the theory that people see him as a unique Old Square character - and thus, more acceptable to Nintendo fans. I don't think the Zelda fanbase allows Ganon to lose to Squall, Auron, or Vincent anymore.

not sure how many times I have to say it but Vivi isn't all that different from New Square in terms of trends

the only real difference is that he's not really a slow starter but that's more because B8 loves him than anything else and even then it's not like he has a great board vote; it's just not awful like most of them (which makes him more similar to Auron in that regard)

he doesn't behave like Kefka, Terra, or Chrono Trigger at all

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Vivi's saving grace may be the theory that people see him as a unique Old Square character - and thus, more acceptable to Nintendo fans. I don't think the Zelda fanbase allows Ganon to lose to Squall, Auron, or Vincent anymore.

Still, the requisite raw strength seems just short for Vivi. Even if DK is beefed up, 55% on him shouldn't be enough against Mr. Zelda (Proxy) himself.

Yep. Vivi has "magic" to him, which someone has said in this topic in round one. He will never lose strength no matter how much the rest of Square falls.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4317-who-is-your-all-time-favorite-nintendo-villain

a fun little old poll. Most of these guys weren't in a contest yet when the poll was done.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7328-division-7-round-2-tifa-vs-mewtwo
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3740-chaos-division-round-1-ganondorf-vs-mewtwo

We have a better idea where Mewtwo stands now so we can look back and see that Ganondorf was probably just outside of Noble 9 strength in 2010. With Nintendo on the upswing, the Zelda series in great health, I can't see any justification for a large Ganondorf fall. Following from that, Dante isn't too far off where you would expect him to be. With that said, I have no explanation for Chun-Li. Spyro can be explained by boosting for the same reason as Crash.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5205-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-cirno-vs-chun

Chun-Li is just flat out way stronger than that now.

As for Vivi and DK, they have both looked good in their previous matches. Maybe they somehow both boosted by almost the exact same proportion.

Oh, and if it's any consolation for the Ganon haters, his path now seems destined to be an SFF-smoldering by Link followed immediately by another loss to Pikachu. Maybe some catharsis?

I get no catharsis from Zeldrones being cannibalized by their own then beaten by Nintendrones.

But I still think Vivi has a chance

Team Rocket Elite posted...

With that said, I have no explanation for Chun-Li.

The Zelda fanbase let her have it. I f***ing voted against the 'dorf and I've got the series tattooed on my heart. She's a beloved old school character and was a decent candidate to cost Ganon some of his usual proxy strength.

It's honestly not best to dwell on it too much or crunch too many numbers.

That match was custom-made for Tifa to overperform to high heaven since it's all females. That isn't retroactive justification either. I've said Tifa does stuff like this against other female characters for years.

She doubled Peach (essentially doubling Jill Valentine, which is about what Samus did in 2010) and tripled The Boss in 2006, two performances that would make Tifa look downright beastly in this contest if you compare how those characters performed this year.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

With that said, I have no explanation for Chun-Li.

The Zelda fanbase let her have it. I f***ing voted against the 'dorf and I've got the series tattooed on my heart. She's a beloved old school character and was a decent candidate to cost Ganon some of his usual proxy strength.

It's honestly not best to dwell on it too much or crunch too many numbers.

Now the question is, do you bank on her beating other characters that could put that number on Ganon, or shall we launch the Chun-Li is a FRAUD campaign now?

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Oh, and if it's any consolation for the Ganon haters, his path now seems destined to be an SFF-smoldering by Link followed immediately by another loss to Pikachu. Maybe some catharsis?

absolutely not because the chances Link actually matches or outperforms his 2004 performance is pretty low

don't ruin the mystique of that match by letting it happen again

Vote Vivi

LeonhartFour posted...

absolutely not because the chances Link actually matches or outperforms his 2004 performance is pretty low

I don't see why not. Any antivoters Link has aren't seriously considering Ganon a good alternative to him.

I mean I've voted Link in one match he's had to this day and it was that one.

Eh, I think "anybody but Link" includes Ganondorf way more than it did in 2004 when that sentiment wasn't nearly as strong.

I'd never think to take Chun-Li over Dante or even the weaker Leon we saw this year. Street Fighter V is worth very little on this site, and Marvel Infinite is completely worthless. She's not in Smash (not even as an assist trophy), and fighting games are years past the resurgence that SFIV breathed into the genre. She has no logical reason to boost - her R1 performance certainly vouches for that - so I gotta call it like I see it and presume her performance on Ganondorf was just a fluke.

like even if Link manages to get 85% that's still a massive disappointment in my book

Let's also bear in mind that this will be Link's first contest in the match should Ganon make it there. That could be interesting to see how his abscene up to that point affects the beating he might lay into Ganon, or perhaps if Vivi can bring some momentum from beating the rival.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Let's also bear in mind that this will be Link's first contest in the match should Ganon make it there. That could be interesting to see how his abscene up to that point affects the beating he might lay into Ganon, or perhaps if Vivi can bring some momentum from beating the rival.

Mario/Sephiroth 2005 suggests "momentum" doesn't mean much in a situation like this...!

Maybe. I'm just saying I've been on the "anybody but Link" train since 2002 and I would never vote Ganondorf so while I can't be sure he won't do better I'd be doubtful. Ganondorf is the Roman Reigns to Link's John Cena. While people may have been sick of John Cena they sure as hell don't want diet John Cena as a solution either.

Also, with lower vote totals, anti-votes affect the percentage more, which is another part of the reason it's rare to see really big blowouts like we used to.

We're just better off not risking ruining the beauty of that SFF beatdown.

LeonhartFour posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Let's also bear in mind that this will be Link's first contest in the match should Ganon make it there. That could be interesting to see how his abscene up to that point affects the beating he might lay into Ganon, or perhaps if Vivi can bring some momentum from beating the rival.

Mario/Sephiroth 2005 suggests "momentum" doesn't mean much in a situation like this...!

Well, Mario didn't run through any FFVII characters in route to the champion's bracket either, whereas Vivi would be following up a victory over Ganon with a match with Link.

AxemRedRanger posted...

After what Chun-Li did, I think a lot of this first match is Dante sucking really badly.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5238-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-dante-vs-squirtle-vs

Dante ended up largely skating by for this after what Squirtle went on to do later but I'm not sure he should have. Even letting Zidane get 43.58% on him was sort of acceptable given what Vivi did that contest, and by the end of the contest I figured this match was a sign of Zidane's growing strength.

We have since learned that as of 2018 Zidane is not particularly good. He did marginally worse on Knuckles than he did on 2013 Dante. Now Zero is currently showing us that Zidane is actually on par with friggin' Wario. At this point I figure it's likely I drew the wrong conclusion - 43.56% on Dante didn't mean that Zidane was good but probably rather that Dante had declined substantially due to the reboot and/or it having been too long since his last good game. There are some franchises and characters I can see maintaining high strength despite getting nothing worthwhile for years and years; I doubt Dante and Devil May Cry is among those. At this point Dante's looking like he's reverted to around his 2002-2004 levels when he was just a solid midcarder rather than the near-elite he became from 2005-2010 after DMC3.

To be fair, except maybe in 2005, Dante has never been a true near-elite. He fell just a bit short against Vincent, Yoshi, and Ryu during that period, of which the latter two weren't themselves near-elites as of 2006 and 2010 (respectively).

Fun fact:

Ganondorf (2013c) has a strength of 33.58 against Base Link.
Spyro (2013c) has a strength of 22.86 against Base Link.
Ganondorf65.96%35,593
Spyro34.04%18,367
Ganondorf wins with 65.96% of the vote

Ganondorf's current projected result against Spyro: 64.35%.

If you believe that Spyro boosted (which I'm not convinced of, but that's another discussion), then the only way to rectify this result is that Spyro boosted in the exact same proportion that Ganondorf was undervalyed in the 2013 stats. Not impossible (it's happened before), but yeah.

KamikazePotato posted...

Fun fact:

Ganondorf (2013c) has a strength of 33.58 against Base Link.
Spyro (2013c) has a strength of 22.86 against Base Link.
Ganondorf65.96%35,593
Spyro34.04%18,367
Ganondorf wins with 65.96% of the vote

Ganondorf's current projected result against Spyro: 64.35%.

If you believe that Spyro boosted (which I'm not convinced of, but that's another discussion), then the only way to rectify this result is that Spyro boosted in the exact same proportion that Ganondorf was undervalyed in the 2013 stats. Not impossible (it's happened before), but yeah.

lol x-stats

Dante gaining percentage in big chunks now. This will probably end up not too far apart from Vivi/DK by the end.

KamikazePotato posted...

Fun fact:

Ganondorf (2013c) has a strength of 33.58 against Base Link.
Spyro (2013c) has a strength of 22.86 against Base Link.
Ganondorf65.96%35,593
Spyro34.04%18,367
Ganondorf wins with 65.96% of the vote

Ganondorf's current projected result against Spyro: 64.35%.

If you believe that Spyro boosted (which I'm not convinced of, but that's another discussion), then the only way to rectify this result is that Spyro boosted in the exact same proportion that Ganondorf was undervalyed in the 2013 stats. Not impossible (it's happened before), but yeah.

Where's that Ganondorf value come from? His SFF match with Mario?

Mac Arrowny posted...

Where's that Ganondorf value come from? His SFF match with Mario?

2010.

Which was derived from Sonic, who was probably adjusted for Link SFF based on a previous contest too? That's a very fuzzy value...

I mean it's all fuzzy math at this point but the 2010 value for Ganondorf probably isn't too far off and I'll vouch for those numbers because they're mine

he didn't look super good that year regardless of what excuses you want to make for those performances

Yeah, I won't disagree with that. Just saying his projected score against Spyro isn't meaningful.

Welcome to X-stats. Nothing is ever perfect.

Regardless, it's not super difficult to adjust for SFF in most cases. Sonic faced Kirby directly, who faced Vivi and Rikku, ect. There's many ways to adjust as long as you have adjacent characters who have been somewhat consistent.

It's unwise to ignore x-stat proportions that match up perfectly. Sometimes it's the case of guesswork/changed over time lining up perfectly to tell a lie, but a lot of times it's not! If you take a look at Vivi today, his result is very close to what his beatdown of Yu and Aya predicted him to get based on 2013 stats.

Ganondorf for me is a still a huge question mark this year. His results are...fairly nonsensical so far. We'll have to see what happens against Vivi. I think Ganondorf wins that match because we're in the worst timeline of Division 1, but it's not guaranteed.

just remember that Ganondorf would've had to get 80% of Mario's votes to beat Vivi if you remove him...!

of course Ganon has reason to be stronger than he's been in a long while like most of Nintendo

Mac Arrowny posted...

Yeah, I won't disagree with that. Just saying his projected score against Spyro isn't meaningful.

It's meaningful because if his 2013 value is even a little accurate, Vivi is currently projected to stomp him into the dirt if you look at Spyro and Chun-Li. Even if you just look at the Dante match today and adjust him up based on that, they're about dead even.

Still on the leadearboard? What? Damn!
Came back from work, checked the results.

Come on Dante! Seriously? Are you telling me Dante VS Chun-Li is debatable? Seriously?
3rd time is the charm! For Vivi of course! Didn't expected that to tell the truth. DK is monkeying around it seems.
Zero would always win this so that is fine.
Pikachu is doing fine. He really is the strongest pokemon.

oh this one isn't done yet

which one?

the topic

well lets fix that

im317 posted...

well lets fix that

yes, let's

Still I find 3 out of the 4 results strange.

Pika the strongest non N9er.

Everything is a fraud.