GameFAQs Contests

UItimaterializer posted...

swirIdude posted...

I called the Tails upset! The rest of my bracket is a s***show but who cares? Tonight, I am a genius!

^

Whoa, Tails was an upset here? I had no idea, I took him without thinking. Drake is turbofodder, and Sonic team is hot off of Sonic Mania

Drake did decently in 2013. Not really turbofodderish at all.

The only reason this looks like a stomp is because stuff from the last 10 years or so seems to have fallen off a cliff.

Vincent's bad performance yestereday makes the Mewtwo is a fraud theory very likely. No more can we excuse Mewtwo's bad performance on Phoenix Wright by saying he dominated a near-elite named Vincent! This also ruins my pre-contest theory that Mewtwo > Pikachu >> Charizard. Apparently I got the Pikachu >> Charizard part right, but not the other part, it seems.

Now... these calculations are very, VERY rough... take everything with a grain of salt.

Extrapolating through Sonic, Mewtwo's 2013 x-stat is 45.63%. Extrapolating through Phoenix Wright, Mewtwo's x-stat is 34.09%. That suggests that Mewtwo's true strength could be worth as little as 37.35% on the fraud version. Granted, Sonic's x-stat is probably too high.

How does Charizard as a fraud compare? He's estimated to be at 34.22% if equal to Zelda. Let's assume Terra gets 40% on Kirby in 2013. Terra's new x-stat is 28.48. This suggests Charizard gets 58.38% on Terra. So basically, Charizard 2018 gets 44% on Charizard 2013. Granted, Terra may have increased. It's possible Charizard may not be much of a fraud at all.

Is Pikachu a fraud? 2013 x-stats suggests Pikachu gets 64.08% on Scorpion. He got 66%. Yeah, so Pikachu being a fraud seems pretty unlikely, especially with Sub-Zero's impressive score on Shulk.

I'm basing my Mewtwo to get around what he got against Ganondorf in 2010.

I get that Sonic Mania was well-liked from before the contest, but I don't get why people think it made an impact. Did it sell well? Did GameFAQs latch onto it more than expected? I don't remember Sonic Generations previously having an impact, or did it?

Sonic characters have dunked on us so far and we've been looking for reasons to justify why...don't even have a better reason yet, just wouldn't have thought Sonic Mania would be the type of game to make an impact.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5256-character-battle-ix-division-4-final-solid-snake-vs-glados

A GlaDOS that is on par with Kefka might be enough to take out Mewtwo.

For the record I don't think Sonic Mania did anything. Unless Crash Bandicoot was in that game too. And Donkey Kong.

That's one way to look at it, but that suggests Mewtwo only get 54.5% on 2010 Phoenix Wright. Mewtwo did better than that against an arguably stronger Phoenix Wright in 2013. But if you think 3-ways helped Mewtwo a ton, be my guest. Mewtwo could have been SFFed by Ganondorf, too... Honestly, if the 2010 measurement is accurate, he's probably not beating GlaDOS, even a weakened one.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5256-character-battle-ix-division-4-final-solid-snake-vs-glados

A GlaDOS that is on par with Kefka might be enough to take out Mewtwo.

Gotta beliiiiiiiieeeeeeeeve. Let us hope GLaDOS doesn't go the way of Gordon Freeman.

I would have taken GlaDOS over Mewtwo if I didn't expect her to drop in strength.

Best case scenario GlaDOS (2013 x-stat) beats worst case scenario Mewtwo (2010) with 61.52%!

Oh man, if Mewtwo is a fraud and Tifa takes a FF7-hit like the rest of the team probably is, there is a non-zero chance GLaDOS gets to the third round to face Mega Man X.

Unfortunately, Mewtwo may benefit from the Nintendo Direct Thursday. Bah.

Even if both Mewtwo and Tifa are frauds, GlaDOS is going to be a bigger one than either. Non-relevant western characters aren't exactly lighting up a storm right now.

Yeah, the problem here is that even if Mewtwo is a fraud, there's still the fact that GLaDOS is likely trending downwards because nothing's happening with the Portal series and everybody hating Valve, while Pokemon in general should at least be constant, if not trending upwards from where it was in 2013.

But that's more of a GlaDOS drop, not GlaDOS being a fraud... though I do think GlaDOS overperformed a little against Snake.

But man, GlaDOS' potential of dropping is huge.... look at where she was in 2010! If she fell back to THAT level...ouch.

People hate Valve? But they gave us Steam, didn't they?*

* = I've never used Steam

The good thing is, Drake being a piece of crap means Zelda's win isn't even that cool.

Lopen posted...

For the record I don't think Sonic Mania did anything. Unless Crash Bandicoot was in that game too. And Donkey Kong.

They have their own similar reasons if you will. If Sonic Mania boosted the Sonic characters, then Crash probably got a boost from Uncharted and the remakes and Donkey Kong from Tropical Freeze being a huge hit.

I personally think they might have made a little difference, but that this has more to do with nostalgia on this site.

it'a a furry boost fur real

ffmasterjose posted...

People hate Valve? But they gave us Steam, didn't they?*

* = I've never used Steam

That may be, but they've also stopped making video games, which doesn't sit well with people

Haste_2 posted...

But that's more of a GlaDOS drop, not GlaDOS being a fraud... though I do think GlaDOS overperformed a little against Snake.

But man, GlaDOS' potential of dropping is huge.... look at where she was in 2010! If she fell back to THAT level...ouch.

If she fell to Portal 1-strength after Portal 2's release, ouch indeed! I think the fandom in her character will last uniquely in a way other Western characters have failed (going by the Generic McDude barometer), but even a little drop can still cost her the match.

Any particular reason why you think GLaDOS overperformed some against Snake in 2013? She didn't have major upsets leading up to that match to cause bandwagoning like Kefka miiiiight have, and she barely beat Kefka anyway -- someone who we just saw reestablish himself over L-Block (with Terra providing back-up evidence). Snake and Kefka don't have a lot of overlap either.

My best guess for what you mean is that it was a close battle for second place and voters went to that aspect of the poll instead of Snake, but again Kefka's looking legit.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Crash probably got a boost from Uncharted

Nyeh?

Haste_2 posted...

But that's more of a GlaDOS drop, not GlaDOS being a fraud... though I do think GlaDOS overperformed a little against Snake.

But man, GlaDOS' potential of dropping is huge.... look at where she was in 2010! If she fell back to THAT level...ouch.

More like in 08, she couldn’t even beat Falco >_>

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6124-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-vs

If possible, people should probably take games' stats into account as well in debatable matches.

Going on Contest Standings, and in the Score Distribution, there are 7221 brackets!

I just threw the values into Excel, and did a sum of the "Count" column.

I'm sure someone has already said this, but, if not, there you go.

Wasn't that match during an Undertale rally? How well was Uncharted holding up before?

It was around 60/40 before Undertale started

Dark Silvergun posted...

Going on Contest Standings, and in the Score Distribution, there are 7221 brackets!

I just threw the values into Excel, and did a sum of the "Count" column.

I'm sure someone has already said this, but, if not, there you go.

You can also figure it out by adding the number of picks for each match.

Advokaiser posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6124-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-vs

If possible, people should probably take games' stats into account as well in debatable matches.

...I mean, we all know games =/= characters, but in hindsight this poll says everything about Tails > Drake.

Hmm...

Question: GlaDOS or Scorpion? I'm not really sure about that.

So where is the guy that posts the percentages per hour for the previous day's matches? Sorry don't remember your name! Anyways came back from work, checked the results.

Year of Luigi for sure!
Frog beasting against a Panda?
Chief deserves some wins but not against Yakuza...
Seriously Drake? Man nobody has played any games since PS 2 here it seems.

Scorpion

Haste_2 posted...

But that's more of a GlaDOS drop, not GlaDOS being a fraud... though I do think GlaDOS overperformed a little against Snake.

But man, GlaDOS' potential of dropping is huge.... look at where she was in 2010! If she fell back to THAT level...ouch.

GLaDOS wasn't that weak in 2010. She wasn't strong, but 31.6% on Kirby is respectable enough. She just looks bad in the raw X-Stats because the entire Chaos Division got stuck behind Sonic's inability to even break 30% on Link in the Elite Eight.

Anyway, the real question right now is, how badly are the casuals going to embarrass us on this one? We split 80-20 towards Nathan. I wouldn't be surprised if Nathan was the favorite with the casuals as well, but it's probably not going to be anywhere near 80%.

Still, for it to be the biggest embarrassment of the contest for us, Tails would have to be the favorite, because they've already beaten us by over 30% twice! Donkey Kong and Crash were both non-upsets that were marked underdogs with the Guru.

Sadly the "gurus dominate casualbait match" square remains unchecked.

AxemRedRanger posted...

Sadly the "gurus dominate casualbait match" square remains unchecked.

What about Captain Toad > Shovel Knight? The Cookie has Captain Toad meaning the majority of Gurus did, while about 70% of brackets picked Shovel Knight to win

It's harder for gurus to dominate casuals when the popularity of contests has dropped so much that a large portion of the total brackets were made by "gurus".

swirIdude posted...

ctesjbuvf posted...

Crash probably got a boost from Uncharted

Nyeh?

He was in that! Might not have been a major boost on this site, but in general it was regarded as a big thing and surely was a nice way to promote the remakes.

Donkey Kong usually gets a lock of bracket stock with casuals anyway. I want to say (I think he was) a big favorite with them against Lightning even though hardly anyone here took him in that match.

Also does anyone know where I can find the prediction percentages for 2013

So far the gurus are 39-9 against the site. Our loses were from Master Hand (-1.48%), Pac-Man (-5.58%), Wario (-12.45%), Claire (-13.26%), Bayonetta (-19.91%), Knuckles (-24.05%), Simon (-31.85%), Crash (-33.89%) and Donkey Kong (-34.68%). Funny enough both Wario and Bayonetta were guru favourites, but the site overwhelming sided with them.

Our 5 best performances against the site are Vincent (+35.57%), Big Boss (+34.37%), Captain Toad (+33.43%), Chun-Li (+33.18%) and Phoenix Wright (+33.13%). 10 picks had us beating the site by more than 30 points.

Our average prediction percentage is 81.72% while the site is 68.04%. If we remove matches where both the site and gurus predicted with over 80% accuracy this drops to 74.71% for the gurus and 60.79% for the site. This basically means we don't have any more of an advantage predicting head scratchers relative to us predicting predictable matches

AxemRedRanger posted...

Sadly the "gurus dominate casualbait match" square remains unchecked.

Maybe not. It depends on your definition of "dominate".

I mean, we were 33.83% better than them on the Shovel Knight vs. Captain Toad match, the biggest bracketbuster of Round 1 thus far. But, that still means that over 1 out of every three Gurus did pick Shovel Knight. In fact, that 33.83% figure is just 0.1% better than how much we outperformed the casuals by in Spyro vs. Chun-Li...even though the casuals also favored Chun-Li! The casuals thought it was a debatable match, with only 55.02% of brackets calling it correctly compared to 88.75% of Gurus.

charmander6000 posted...

So far the gurus are 39-9 against the site. Our loses were from Master Hand (-1.48%), Pac-Man (-5.58%), Wario (-12.45%), Claire (-13.26%), Bayonetta (-19.91%), Knuckles (-24.05%), Simon (-31.85%), Crash (-33.89%) and Donkey Kong (-34.68%). Funny enough both Wario and Bayonetta were guru favourites, but the site overwhelming sided with them.

Our 5 best performances against the site are Vincent (+35.57%), Big Boss (+34.37%), Captain Toad (+33.43%), Chun-Li (+33.18%) and Phoenix Wright (+33.13%). 10 picks had us beating the site by more than 30 points.

Our average prediction percentage is 81.72% while the site is 68.04%. If we remove matches where both the site and gurus predicted with over 80% accuracy this drops to 74.71% for the gurus and 60.79% for the site. This basically means we don't have any more of an advantage predicting head scratchers relative to us predicting predictable matches

Oh, huh, you beat me to answering that one. And wow, I hadn't even considered checking the percentage on Big Boss-Ridley to see how it compared to ours, because my quick figure was that they'd done a good job. (Though you're forgetting to take out the "Mr. Bad Picks" bracket, which doesn't represent an actual Guru and is there for debugging purposes, when calculating the Gurus' prediction percentages.)

As for Vincent-Magus, I hadn't actually gotten that far when I decided to hit post...and wow. Seems hard to believe that Magus was actually favored over Vincent sitewide.

Ranticoot posted...

Donkey Kong usually gets a lock of bracket stock with casuals anyway. I want to say (I think he was) a big favorite with them against Lightning even though hardly anyone here took him in that match.

Also does anyone know where I can find the prediction percentages for 2013

Here you go.

Gurus: http://thengamer.com/guru/CB9/stats.php
Casuals: ...I'm not finding this either.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

(Though you're forgetting to take out the "Mr. Bad Picks" bracket, which doesn't represent an actual Guru and is there for debugging purposes, when calculating the Gurus' prediction percentages.)

That makes sense as to why it was included. They should really fix that.

My god...Luigi is STILL increasing
Poor Edgeworth

Match LIII: (3) Tifa Lockheart vs. (14) Geno

Previous Contest Performance

Tifa Lockheart - 2013
Round 1: 61.86% against Chun-Li (26.71%) and Cirno (11.43%)
Round 2: 44.56% against Dragonborn (30.43%) and Yuna (25.00%)
Round 3: 33.81% against Samus Aran (41.70%) and L-Block (24.49%)

Geno - 2013
Round 1: 12.74% against Mega Man (55.28%) and Magikarp (31.98%)

Analysis

Among the Final Fantasy VII characters Tifa was the only one to look normal in 2013. Whether that stays the same for this contest is debatable. Both Aerith and Vincent have not looked great, but it is likely that Waluigi and Magus both gained in strength. Should Tifa keep her strength she’ll have a great chance at winning this division.

One day Geno will avoid a Square or Nintendo character in the first round. That is the curse of being an offspring from the two companies. Not that I think he gets SFF from new (not really new anymore) Square characters like Squall or Tifa.

The Smash Direct will occur in the morning and while it would no doubt help Geno if he was revealed around 70-75% of the votes will have been cast by that time so it is unlikely to do much for him outside of getting a higher percentage. What will be interesting to see is if the Nintendo characters tank in percentage during that time.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart > Geno

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa Lockheart wins, 72.21% - 27.79%




Match LIV: (6) GlaDOS vs. (11) Mewtwo

Previous Contest Performance

GlaDOS - 2013
Round 1: 58.72% against Cole (23.82%) and Ragna the Bloodedge (17.46%)
Round 2: 44.92% against Epona (29.70%) and Ike (25.39%)
Round 3: 26.28% against Solid Snake (47.58%) and Kefka (26.14%)

Mewtwo - 2013
Round 1: 81.80% against Zero (14.69%) and Chester (3.51%)
Round 2: 44.28% against Phoenix Wright (29.91%) and Vincent Valentine (25.81%)
Round 3: 41.82% against Sonic the Hedgehog (34.58%) and Bowser (23.60%)
Round 4: 31.88% against Draven (45.07%) and Sephiroth (23.06%)

Analysis

There’s a movement pushing the idea that Mewtwo is a fraud. I guess if you believe he’s a noble nine breaker than I guess it’s true that he’ll be a fraud. I would sooner trust his 2010 numbers than his 2013. In the chance that he is significantly stronger than his 2010 self I would imagine he’ll have a chance at winning the division, but I am not convinced yet.

On paper GlaDOS would have a great chance at taking the upset. Her performance in 2013 was very impressive and Kefka showed his performance was legitimate. The downside is I expect Portal to be a lot weaker this contest. The games did not perform well during the games contest and in general characters from games released from the mid to late 2000s have been flopping everywhere. With both characters having such high variance we probably won’t get a lot of information as to the chances Mewtwo has at winning this division.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mewtwo > GlaDOS

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mewtwo wins, 62.52% - 37.48%

Match LV: (7) King Dedede vs. (10) Revolver Ocelot

Previous Contest Performance

King Dedede - 2008
Round 1: 13.41% against Ryu Hayabusa (36.53%), Zero (35.44%) and Pit (14.62%)

Revolver Ocelot - 2013
Round 1: 32.90% against Auron (45.56%) and Roxas (21.54%)

Analysis

I’ve seen a few people give pause for this match, but I think it should be a relatively easy win for Ocelot. The guy may have had weird victories and losses over the years, but constantly he’s shown to have some strength. So far, I have not been impressed with Metal Gear’s performance in this contest, but again Ridley was likely to have boosted while Metal Sonic is a new character.

It’s been a while since we saw King Dedede and while it was unfortunate that he got placed against a fellow Nintendo character I think it’s quite clear that he’s weak. Pit was unable to do much in 2013 and that’s with reason for him to be stronger relative to 2008 considering he got his first release since 1991 before the contest. Yes, Dedede has the Nintendo boost and direct to look forward to, but I don’t see him doing much.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Revolver Ocelot > King Dedede

charmander6000’s Prediction: Revolver Ocelot wins, 63.48% - 36.52%




Match LVI: (2) Mega Man X vs. (15) Isabelle

Previous Contest Performance

Mega Man X - 2013
Round 1: 65.22% against Jigglypuff (24.01%) and Welkin Gunther (10.76%)
Round 2: 19.15% against Draven (66.52%) and Ryu (14.32%)

Isabelle - N/A
N/A

Analysis

Isabelle is pretty much only hear due to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate hype. Animal Crossing just isn’t a GameFAQs type of game and it likely hurts Isabelle that her first appearance came so late in the series. I wouldn’t be surprised if she struggles to overtake Tom Nook as the strongest Animal Crossing character.

While Draven kind of ruined the match the first few updates clearly showed that Mega Man X at worst was only slightly weaker than Mega Man. This pretty much gives him one of the best arguments at being the strongest character in the main bracket. This division will be tough to top, though he shouldn’t have an issue winning here, even if there is some crazy unlikely Smash rally.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man X > Isabelle

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man X wins, 73.32% - 26.68%

charmander6000 posted...

With both characters having such high variance we probably won’t get a lot of information as to the chances Mewtwo has at winning this division.

Unless Mewtwo loses, in which case we know the chances will be 0%.

The one thing that makes me think Mewtwo is not a fraud is Mewtwo > Pikachu in the 2013 bonus match when Pikachu was undeniably a near-elite. Unless he was still being bandwagoned in a fourth-place bonus match against a character from his own series, or there was some serious reverse SFF, Mewtwo is above Pikachu in the hierarchy.

Please, Mewtwo, don't be another Charizard

Been updating the "histories" for some of our returners, especially the one-and-dones but also some that are still alive.

And holy crap, I guess I didn't really pay attention to the numbers on Lightning-Chloe! Even if that's not even a tripling, that could easily set Chloe up for a potential last-place finish in the X-Stats; Lightning's still very much hated and could easily get blown out by Dante, and then Dante's probably the underdog against Ganondorf...and then there might not be any "maybe" to it because Ganondorf gets SFF'd out by Link and the entirety of Division 1 looks horribly weak in the raw X-stats.

How is this Loser's Bracket going to affect those, anyway? Do we just ignore the loser's bracket? Or maybe we ignore the winner's bracket and just have the elimination matches?

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

The one thing that makes me think Mewtwo is not a fraud is Mewtwo > Pikachu in the 2013 bonus match when Pikachu was undeniably a near-elite. Unless he was still being bandwagoned in a fourth-place bonus match against a character from his own series, or there was some serious reverse SFF, Mewtwo is above Pikachu in the hierarchy.

Please, Mewtwo, don't be another Charizard

Maybe Mega Man SFFs Pikachu worse than Mewtwo?

Could also be our first case of rSFF

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Been updating the "histories" for some of our returners, especially the one-and-dones but also some that are still alive.

And holy crap, I guess I didn't really pay attention to the numbers on Lightning-Chloe! Even if that's not even a tripling, that could easily set Chloe up for a potential last-place finish in the X-Stats; Lightning's still very much hated and could easily get blown out by Dante, and then Dante's probably the underdog against Ganondorf...and then there might not be any "maybe" to it because Ganondorf gets SFF'd out by Link and the entirety of Division 1 looks horribly weak in the raw X-stats.

How is this Loser's Bracket going to affect those, anyway? Do we just ignore the loser's bracket? Or maybe we ignore the winner's bracket and just have the elimination matches?

I suggest we ignore the loser's bracket for the raw x-stats and use it in the adjusted x-stats.