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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1292
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NowItsAngeTime posted... OFool posted...Are there any options to rally Ryu to make this interesting? But they probably get what, 100 views a day? Probably wouldn’t convert to more than 20 votes for our boy. I think all hope is lost now, the US loves it’s Smash character |
oh I remember how it's done now Simon Belmont by the hour: 21:00 | 52.23% 22:00 | 53.76% 23:00 | 54.21% 00:00 | 52.51% 01:00 | 52.22% 02:00 | 52.16% 03:00 | 47.10% 04:00 | 49.28% 05:00 | 44.98% 06:00 | 48.69% 07:00 | 48.54% 08:00 | 52.59% 09:00 | 50.41% 10:00 | 48.11% 11:00 | 49.43% 12:00 | 50.39% 13:00 | 46.99% 14:00 | 50.86% 15:00 | 48.11% As of 15:00: Ryu Hayabusa needs to cut 8.17 votes per update to win Based on the last 2 hours, Simon Belmont wins by 455 votes Based on the last hour, Simon Belmont wins by 345 votes Based on the last 30 minutes, Simon Belmont wins by 440 votes Ryu really needs to step it up here but it'll be hard as votes are only trickling in by this point. |
Based on our typical votals, Hayabusa would have to go like 58% for the rest of the match to win this. He's not doing it without a rally. [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] |
ZeldaTPLink posted... OFool posted...How did we get it so wrong with Ryu? Exactly. Last time we had a 1v1 contest (which was admittedly 8 years ago), Simon lost to Ezio. The same Ezio we just saw get blown out horrendously. ...by the same character that beat him far less horrendously in said contest. Fine, bad example, since it's clear that 2018 Ezio is a threat to get doubled by 2010 Ezio. But isn't that part of it? The "won't get fooled again" bias? It's why we continue to underestimate Kefka and overrate guys like Frog and Vincent. Hayabusa was the one who pulled the big upsets; Simon, though the Gurus mostly called it right (I didn't), was actually a slight favorite with the casuals in his loss to Ezio. "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. (edited 10/29/2018 12:36:27 PM) |
If
you want to get rallied votes for Ryu, rally for Geralt. Spillover
probably favors him. But that's definitely a "Be careful what you wish
for" idea. Yesmar |
Eh, a Geralt rally would probably be useless because he's too far ahead anyway. unless Witcher fans are in the same category as Deus Ex fans and think he's not winning by enough (edited 10/29/2018 12:37:11 PM) |
2B vs. Joker, who would you take? I'd take Joker, but 2B > Claire is also plausible to me. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
Well,
Persona 5 is more popular than Automata, so that gives Joker an
advantage. All things being equal, I'd probably take Joker. |
While I took Ryu H today, it was worth the point for a good match like this. Hats off to anyone who has Bayonetta winning the 8-pack, too! Now crack that combination: 27 99 23. |
who was it that just got announced as DLC for Tekken? "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
im317 posted... who was it that just got announced as DLC for Tekken? I think you mean SoulCalibur 6, but that was 2B. |
I admit that I'm happy to see Simon winning as well, even with Ryu in my bracket. Who would you say is more popular, Shulk or Lucina? "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Rip
my bracket. Had Geralt > Sans and it is looking like an easy Bayo
win there. Got no confidence in Geralt even putting up 45 against her
now. He might even lose to Simon. Kind of curious to see the registered/anonymous disparity with Sans here though. |
LeonhartFour posted... im317 posted...who was it that just got announced as DLC for Tekken? right thanks. wish i had stayed with Bayonetta>Geralt "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
tgs2 posted... Kind of curious to see the registered/anonymous disparity with Sans here though. I honestly think the disparity won't be that big. This match has been surprisingly stable. |
4 hours Ryu..you can do it...(nope lolol) 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
tgs2 posted... Kind of curious to see the registered/anonymous disparity with Sans here though. Registered voters have Pac-Man with 70.61%, Unregistered voters have Pac-Man with 73.07% CBX - Today's Winners: Geralt, Simon Belmont, Pac-Man, Bayonetta Score: 32/40 |
Haste_2 posted... Who would you say is more popular, Shulk or Lucina? Based off 2015 I'd say Shulk, but in a character battle I'd take Lucina probably My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
Nanis23 posted... 4 hours Feels like an eternity. Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. |
i wonder if Shulk got any boost from his DLC appearance in XBC II "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
Hayabusa needs to cut 9.65 votes per update to win now. |
Simon Belmont by the hour: 16:00 | 48.39% As of 16:00: Ryu Hayabusa has made 7 straight cuts Ryu Hayabusa needs to cut 9.65 votes per update to tie Based on the last 2 hours, Simon Belmont wins by 351 votes Based on the last hour, Simon Belmont wins by 355 votes Based on the last 30 minutes, Simon Belmont wins by 159 votes |
If Hayabusa is cutting this late into the match in a match this close, I assume he's winning the guest vote? [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] |
im317 posted... LeonhartFour posted...im317 posted...show hidden quote(s)who was it that just got announced as DLC for Tekken? Same, I should have realized this was DroneFAQs. PLAYSTATION 4: Best console ever | ROCKSTAR: Best developer ever Trolling (v): Posting an opinion that differs from yours |
INTERWEBUSER posted... im317 posted...LeonhartFour posted...show hidden quote(s)im317 posted...who was it that just got announced as DLC for Tekken? i actually have played and enjoyed both Bayonetta games and having played any Witcher games. "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
For some reason I imagine 2B having some legit strength, like way beyond what you'd expect anything Nier to have. |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, Persona 5 is more popular than Automata, so that gives Joker an advantage. All things being equal, I'd probably take Joker. lolwut Who the f*** plays Persona? Automata was a universally liked game in a year full of great games BKSheikah, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club lol xstats |
Match XLV: (3) Auron vs. (14) Lucina Previous Contest Performance Auron - 2013 Round 1: 45.56% against Revolver Ocelot (32.90%) and Roxas (21.54%) Round 2: 37.01% against L-Block (40.99%) and Ezio Auditore da Firenze (22.00%) Lucina - 2013 Round 1: 34.69% against Dracula (58.63%) and Caim (6.69%) Analysis I wasn’t too impressed with Auron in 2013. Even ignoring L-Block shenanigans his performances against Ocelot and Ezio was not very impressive. It’s hard to say whether or not Final Fantasy X characters are weaker this year and even if they are I wouldn’t be surprised if Auron was able to push against the trend. With that said Auron has big reason to underperform here. Since 2013, Lucina has appeared in Super Smash Bros. 4. Her performance against Dracula whom appears to be a step below Alucard was relatively decent too. There’s no way Auron is going to be threatened in this match, but I could see him struggling to break 60%. charmander6000’s Bracket: Auron > Lucina charmander6000’s Prediction: Auron wins, 63.16% - 36.84% Match XLVI: (6) Magus vs. (11) Vincent Valentine Previous Contest Performance Magus - 2013 Round 1: 47.83% against Hal “Otacon” Emmerich (33.90%) and Jade Curtiss (18.27%) Round 2: 12.51% against Pikachu (47.07%) and Crono (40.42%) Vincent Valentine - 2013 Round 1: 53.50% against KOS-MOS (35.90%) and Dunban (10.61%) Round 2: 25.81% against Mewtwo (44.28%) and Phoenix Wright (29.91%) Analysis While Vincent may have had his picture sabotaged last year it was quite clear he was weaker. Even with the picture he should have really defeated Phoenix Wright and there’s no excuse with failing to break 40% against KOS-MOS in the first round. The main question now is whether he has continued to dropped. Aerith didn’t look too good, but that could be more Waluigi going up in strength. Personally, I think Vincent will be a bit weaker this year, but the main reason why I went with the upset is that I believe Chrono Trigger will be stronger. The game looked at worst, to be the second strongest game in the bracket before rallies ruined it and if that translates to the characters I imagine they will have a great contest. charmander6000’s Bracket: Magus > Vincent Valentine charmander6000’s Prediction: Magus wins, 55.25% - 44.75% CBX - Today's Winners: Geralt, Simon Belmont, Pac-Man, Bayonetta Score: 32/40 |
Match XLVII: (7) Shulk vs. (10) Sub-Zero Previous Contest Performance Shulk - 2013 Round 1: 22.85% against Altair (44.43%) and Ratchet (32.73%) Sub-Zero - 2013 Round 1: 49.02% against Garrius Vakarian (40.13%) and Frank West (10.86%) Round 2: 29.63% against Bowser (41.50%) and The Boss (28.87%) Analysis Remember when the board hyped the Xenoblade characters, but it turned out GameFAQs doesn’t care about Xenoblade? Shulk now gets a second stab at the contest, now with Super Smash Bros. 4 helping him. It’s expected that Shulk will perform better, but he was pretty far into the hole in 2013 where he was almost doubled by Altair whom I’d argue was already weaker than Sub-Zero in 2013. There is some debate as to whether Sub-Zero is as strong as we saw him previously. While Scorpion had a terrible start in his match against Pikachu he was able to recover to the point where at worst Scorpion suffered a minor drop in strength. If the same happened to Sub-Zero, I feel he should still be able to easily win this match. charmander6000’s Bracket: Sub-Zero > Shulk charmander6000’s Prediction: Sub-Zero wins, 61.70% - 38.30% Match XLVIII: (2) Ren Amamiya vs. (15) Claire Redfield Previous Contest Performance Ren Amamiya - N/A N/A Claire Redfield - 2013 Round 1: 24.66% against Yuna (40.49%) and Master Chief (34.84%) Analysis This match has stirred up a lot of questions towards the kind of name and picture Ren will receive in this match. Currently, SBAllen has been using the picture from the bracket and typically their first name. The issue for Ren is that he isn’t referred to as Ren in Persona 5, he is called Joker and he typically has a mask. There is still a decent chance that SBAllen will refer to him as Joker during the match, but I doubt the picture will change. Regardless, even in a best-case scenario Ren would probably struggle to defeat Claire. So far Resident Evil has performed well and she does have some strength. Persona 5 did perform well during the Game of the Year poll and the series has become more mainstream, but I don’t have too much faith in new games and characters. Overall, I expect a lot of whining, no matter which picture or name SBAllen decides to use. charmander6000’s Bracket: Claire Redfield > Ren Amamiya charmander6000’s Prediction: Claire Redfield wins, 56.21% - 43.79% CBX - Today's Winners: Geralt, Simon Belmont, Pac-Man, Bayonetta Score: 32/40 |
I hate to humor BT but https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Persona 5 was a universally liked game in a year full of great games |
I
think Persona is still the bigger name, but Persona really lacks a
central character that can really carry the full weight of the franchise
like a good representative protag should. Automata has that symbol in 2B though. Like a Dante to Devil May Cry, I imagine she'd be a lot higher than her game. |
Yeah, 2B has reasons to exceed the potential of her game. I'm still not sure she will though. |
Simon Belmont by the hour: 17:00 | 53.39% yeah this is over |
Hot
Take: She just barely beats Ness, then overperforms against Bowser and
people will think she's a midcarder and Ness fans will agree. |
Nah, Ness going too high in the X-Stats will be a dead giveaway for an overperformance. |
The NINTENDO BOOST tho |
This match, we've seen Geralt go up by 7% since the freeze, while Simon has dropped by 5%. Whoever wins in Round 2, the initial percentage is not going to be pretty for Geralt. If all else fails use fire. |
Well, western characters tend to have bad board votes, so that's no surprise. |
Haste_2 posted... I admit that I'm happy to see Simon winning as well, even with Ryu in my bracket. Probably Lucina; Fire Emblem seems to have worked its way up to second-tier Nintendo franchise while Xenoblade, due to its newness, is stuck on third tier. Of course, Fire Emblem suffers from Final Fantasy syndrome to some degree (no continuity of narrative, though there's really only one game in the series that shares zero characters with any other game in the series that isn't explicitly a crossover.) "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... This match, we've seen Geralt go up by 7% since the freeze, while Simon has dropped by 5%. Simon still has those Castlevania vampire trends, even in this format. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40 |
So have we had any matches that would've been flipped by removing user vote doubling yet? Because I'm strongly suspecting Ryu H vs Simon Belmont will be the first if so No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... So have we had any matches that would've been flipped by removing user vote doubling yet? Ramza/Garrus was, I think? I might be misremembering. (edited 10/29/2018 4:53:55 PM) |
LeonhartFour posted... Lopen posted...So have we had any matches that would've been flipped by removing user vote doubling yet? It was split, but if you don't take the double votes into account Garrus still wins. CBX - Today's Winners: Geralt, Simon Belmont, Pac-Man, Bayonetta Score: 32/40 |
well at least Magus won the board vote "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Damn, if Magus can't win the board vote then he's not winning... CBX - Today's Winners: Auron, Magus, Sub-Zero, Claire Score: 36/44 |
yeah Magus is dead if Vincent has already caught him but the CT/FFVII board vote is always something to see |
1 minute in and I'm disappointed by every result The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
joker sighting Moltar Status: contest hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
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