GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1290
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LeonhartFour posted... creativename posted...Leon, what do you expect from Sephy? Well I meant more in terms of how you’d think he’ll do in whatever match you expect him to get eliminated in. Ryu/Luigi/X/whoever. |
70% breached aw yeah I still think Squall can probably get close to 75% by the end, which will make this somewhat salvageable, but not ideal compared to Zelda. |
Oh look, Squall decided to show up. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
creativename posted... Well I meant more in terms of how you’d think he’ll do in whatever match you expect him to get eliminated in. Ryu/Luigi/X/whoever. I still think he wins his division. SBAllen gave him an easy division on purpose to compensate for him not getting an auto-bye to the second part of the contest. I don't think Sephy's cratered quite as badly as a lot of people think, just because he was way, way up there to start with. I do think whoever wins Division 7 can beat him in the Losers Bracket though. I've got Luigi > Seph, actually. |
Go Hat Kid! Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi |
creativename posted... I’m actually quite surprised the differential isn’t much higher. I would’ve expected it to approach the Wario differential. The Phoenix Wright board vote, while quite extreme, only consists of a very small percentage of the total registered votes. The board vote does not give any useful information as to how the overall registered vote will play out. L-Block did better among registered users against Kefka, despite the board vote favoring Kefka. The Wario differential was about 12% because that was a rally match. Pikachu has the largest differential for a non-rally match with a 6 point difference. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Not gonna lie, I considered voting for Hat Kid just because of the pic. Yesmar |
Soooo.... Ezio and Neku would have a fairly close match, then? "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Eh Ezio wins there no problem. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
really interested now in seeing how much Cloud has fallen or if Smash managed to save him a bit. I still think Squall has a chance at beating Zelda because AC is probably really weak, if Garrus has gotten so much weaker then the same probably happened to Ezio. ... |
Big cut for Garrus. Lead under 30. |
Tomorrow is hopefully WALUIGI TIME ........ I hope..... http://www.change.org/petitions/nintendo-give-waluigi-a-chance-in-the-spotlight Let's try giving Waluigi a chance in the spotlight! 2,400+ supporters! |
Here's a funny stat: If Zelda 2010 = Zelda 2018 (obviously 2018 is stronger), Ezio 2010 beats Ezio 2018 with 70.22% as of right now! If Zelda 2018 gets 60% on Zelda 2010, Ezio 2010 beats Ezio 2018 with 62.79% of the vote. In that light, I suppose the current match result isn't absurd. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
I mean Zelda 60/40ing herself sounds kind of absurd that's a pretty massive boost |
Exodecai posted... Tomorrow is hopefully WALUIGI TIME Waluigi is going make or (more likely) break my bracket. XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa |
Exodecai posted... Tomorrow is hopefully WALUIGI TIME Oh shoot I just remembered Final Fantasy VII finally makes its debut tomorrow If Aerith loses to something other than a big rally i think it has… implications about her cohorts. If all else fails use fire. (edited 10/26/2018 5:59:18 PM) |
After one hour, I think I like Garrus to win. Like Luster pointed out, Ramza's probably going to take a beating once we get deep into the night vote, so if they're going 50/50 now, I think Garrus will end up edging him out. |
LusterSoldier posted... creativename posted...I’m actually quite surprised the differential isn’t much higher. I would’ve expected it to approach the Wario differential. Huh. That’s interesting about Kefka getting the board vote but being more popular among unregistereds. Kefka really does make no sense! ...or wait, maybe it was L-Block? Wario had a rally? Why? |
abdou posted...
I mean, Hat Kid > Ezio is pretty inconceivable. Squall just has to hope this is all anti-votes or apathy votes for Zelda or something. Haste_2 posted... Soooo.... Ezio and Neku would have a fairly close match, then? Looks like that'd be the case, nowadays. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Oh, you mean Monika had a rally I guess? |
creativename posted... Huh. That’s interesting about Kefka getting the board vote but being more popular among unregistereds. I think it's simple once you break it down: the board vote is made up of contest faithfuls. We hate joke/rally characters by now. The rest of GameFAQs probably looks back on the rallies with a lot more fondness because they aren't knee-deep in stats all day long. After all, without his status as a contest champion, L-Block wouldn't be worth much to begin with. Non-registered outsiders just don't care as much. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
creativename posted... Oh, you mean Monika had a rally I guess? She did. Not a big one, but enough to noticeably affect the outcome all the same. Mac Arrowny posted... I mean, Hat Kid > Ezio is pretty inconceivable. Squall just has to hope this is all anti-votes or apathy votes for Zelda or something. Well, we've had big name characters finish really low in the X-Stats before. Gordon's probably going to finish really low, just like he always used to do! |
85% update for Squall Power Hour is officially OVER |
creativename posted... Oh, you mean Monika had a rally I guess? Yes, Monika did have a rally. The match saw only 44.38% of its total raw votes coming from registered users, where as we would normally expect around 50% of the votes to come from registered users. Monika's rally was estimated to bring in around 3000 votes. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Trend charts: Time | Phoenix | Chris | Votes | Demographic EBV | 69.08% | 30.92% | 566 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 61.77% | 38.23% | 3675 | (0:00-1:00) ENV | 57.92% | 42.08% | 9661 | (1:00-6:00) DNV | 55.24% | 44.76% | 3499 | (6:00-10:00) TMV | 55.33% | 44.67% | 5946 | (10:00-16:00) TDV | 54.94% | 45.06% | 5981 | (16:00-24:00) Not a lot of movement once we got past the early night vote. Time | Ike | Joel | Votes | Demographic EBV | 65.18% | 34.82% | 560 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 65.67% | 34.33% | 3673 | (0:00-1:00) ENV | 64.34% | 35.66% | 9661 | (1:00-6:00) DNV | 58.76% | 41.24% | 3499 | (6:00-10:00) TMV | 60.02% | 39.98% | 5945 | (10:00-16:00) TDV | 61.30% | 38.70% | 5980 | (16:00-24:00) Ike is about as frontloaded as Phoenix is. Joel does especially well during the Europe-dominated timeframe. Time | Estelle | Isaac | Votes | Demographic EBV | 34.77% | 65.23% | 558 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 35.98% | 64.02% | 3669 | (0:00-1:00) ENV | 34.52% | 65.48% | 9661 | (1:00-6:00) DNV | 37.67% | 62.33% | 3499 | (6:00-10:00) TMV | 37.22% | 62.78% | 5943 | (10:00-16:00) TDV | 33.17% | 66.83% | 5984 | (16:00-24:00) Estelle does well during the A.M. hours, but Isaac doubles her during the day vote proper. Time | Kirby | Guile | Votes | Demographic EBV | 76.16% | 23.84% | 562 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 75.12% | 24.88% | 3673 | (0:00-1:00) ENV | 75.87% | 24.13% | 9659 | (1:00-6:00) DNV | 73.22% | 26.78% | 3499 | (6:00-10:00) TMV | 73.47% | 26.53% | 5947 | (10:00-16:00) TDV | 73.91% | 26.09% | 5982 | (16:00-24:00) Nintendo continues to be pretty frontloaded without much sign of a day vote. |
Oh, is this an interesting match I see? Took long enough. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=40 |
LeonhartFour posted... I mean Zelda 60/40ing herself sounds kind of absurd Yeah, and probably unlikely too, but... *Nintendo has bounced from the Wii U to the Switch. *LoZ has bounced from Link Between Worlds and a Wind Waker remake to Breath of the Wild. *Zelda's apparently really cool in BotW, I hear. *Zelda was held back by DK against Charizard in 2013. *Zelda bounced from a 16-seed to a 4-seed (and so did Ganondorf from a 9-seed). *We're deep into Smash-hype for its next game out in about six weeks. Can that affect someone as strong as Zelda 10%? I mean...I dunno, but those are each decent reasons to expect boosts. Squall ain't out of it per say, but I really regret not sticking with Zelda taking the division. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq (edited 10/26/2018 6:17:54 PM) |
The Wii U was not out yet in 2010, HaRRicH. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
whoa there garrus Moltar Status: contest hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
And there's the lead change. Not a good sign for Ramza. I think he's going to start falling off soon. |
LeonhartFour posted... I mean Zelda 60/40ing herself sounds kind of absurd Yeah, I doubt she got that much stronger. But if anybody gets such a massive boost, it would be the Zelda characters. Garrus took the lead huh... awwwww..... but Ramza will likely get the night vote, right? "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." (edited 10/26/2018 6:18:44 PM) |
Who would have expected that Ramza vs Garrus would be the first close match ? I thought Ramza would have been rolled over. |
Haste_2 posted... Garrus took the lead huh... awwwww..... but Ramza will likely get the night vote, right? FFT didn't get released in Europe (or at least the original one didn't. WotL might have), so probably not. Garrus is 60/40ing him in the UK at the moment. |
Mac Arrowny posted... The Wii U was not out yet in 2010, HaRRicH. Ah crap, I was thinking through 2013's lens and not 2010's. Okay, make it about the second half of the Wii's lifespan and Skyward Sword-hype then. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
also
we're kinda overlooking it at the moment since it's not really
interesting anymore but after Metal Sonic's performance here I almost
kinda like Tails to win his fourpack now Sonic Team looks a bit rejuvenated this year. |
Well crap. I didn't really care about either character in Garrus-Ramza so I actually let the pic factor decide it for me and went against my bracket. I figured it was harmless because Garrus was going to roll Ramza anyway! "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. |
I don't understand why so few people took Tails there. I'd take Tails > Pac-Man pretty easily and Chief should be even worse now; Halo got like 22% on FFVII last games contest. [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] |
Eh,
I'm not worried about Chief there at all. That fourpack was always
about Drake vs. Tails. I don't think Tails is that dissimilar to Pac-Man
and wouldn't beat him by much if at all in years past. |
Tails...might actually beat Drake, yeah. I'm sticking with Drake though, and the winner beats Chief easier. (or preferably beats Not Chief) Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq (edited 10/26/2018 6:29:12 PM) |
TheKoolAidShoto posted... RIP squall Good. This is f***ing great news yep, don't mind, I've already won one and I'm rich, it's not like I need 1k for video games - UltimaterializerX |
Yeah, based on what we've seen so far, I like Tails over Drake right now. (if only I took it oops) "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Garrus pls GameFlux: Unofficial GameFAQs board browser |
Ramza back in the lead! GJ BK_Sheikah |
Yeah,
I'm thinking Squall blows past 75% by the time we're done. He's
consistently been getting updates in the high 70s and low 80s since the
first hour ended. |
also Garrus is winning in the U.S., Canada, and the UK and still losing the match what an odd match this is |
Ramza's started spamming Scream |
LeonhartFour posted... Nintendo continues to be pretty frontloaded without much sign of a day vote. The registered user vote adds another element to the trends. I've done a few trend charts on select matches to see the registered user percentage by time period. Here's an example trend chart from Alucard/Peach: Time | Period | Overall EBV | 73.84% | 73.84% PHV | 63.18% | 63.18% ENV | 54.12% | 56.49% DNV | 47.19% | 54.48% TMV | 44.28% | 51.61% TDV | 42.22% | 49.49% Also included is the actual registered user percentage at the end of each time period. Characters who perform much better with registered users should expect to have a poor day vote as their registered user voting base dries up as we get near the end of the match. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... also Garrus is winning in the U.S., Canada, and the UK and still losing the match The earth cries out! The people cry out! The heavens cry out! They cry for Ramza to finally win a f***ing match! (that's actually awesome though, seriously. That means my vote for Ramza helped, f*** yeah!) Shine on, you crazy diamond. |
I'm happy I took Tails to round 3 Mid 2000s characters are in no man's land. Not old enough to be nostalgic not new enough to be fresh in people's minds Started from the bottom now we here |
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