GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1286
- Team Aqua Elite (38)
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red sox 777 posted... Lopen, it's been a few years. Can you remind me what we decided regarding stuffing claims? I remember there being a fair amount of analysis into this but not what the data was. Well it's been a while. The gist is that there are a lot of factors surrounding the pace (the extra votes were mostly consistent regardless of time of day, even at weird times like 2am in the morning) and distribution of vote increases (Draven would get like 95% of extra votes in later rounds, when against much weaker Jak and Chie he did not have nearly that conversion rate) that that are fishy. I also believe that based on geomaps during the match there was reason to suspect Draven's extra votes were largely coming from the US even when it was like the dead of night, rather than the meat coming from the UK. I'll try to find the posts I made later if you actually care. Meanwhile Bacon's only presented analysis was that the extra votes came from a variety of places. It was pretty flimsy. All it gave proof of was that vote stuffers were smart enough to not force thousands of votes in from a bunch of spoofed IPs in China's IP space like Touhou did. You'd ideally want to compare vote intakes from matches in similar days of the week that weren't rallied, how the distribution of those extra votes seem to fall, how they increase and decrease depending on the time of day relative to GameFAQs votes, etc etc. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... This entire match wil probably be the single funniest part of the contest It's the PTSD from Draven and Undertale, man. We are that war veteran who can't sleep because he keeps seeing rallies everywhere. |
I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. Shine on, you crazy diamond. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. Ulti ignores anything inconvenient to his arguments anyway. |
Oh
man Velvet’s picture sucks. It’s got that oldy looking Tales art
instead of like an actual good picture. She can probably still win, but
yikes |
swordz9 posted... Oh man Velvet’s picture sucks. It’s got that oldy looking Tales art instead of like an actual good picture. She can probably still win, but yikes you've seen James's pic, right |
She's a cute animu girl which is plenty to wreck James No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Might have been mentioned already but on a whim I checked the map. lmao Wyoming'd lives on (Monika/Wario) xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? (edited 10/21/2018 1:33:14 PM) |
UltimaterializerX posted... DoctorJimmy133 posted...This entire match wil probably be the single funniest part of the contest Yeah, she did put in a good effort. She deserves head pats for this one. If all else fails use fire. |
LeonhartFour posted... swordz9 posted...Oh man Velvet’s picture sucks. It’s got that oldy looking Tales art instead of like an actual good picture. She can probably still win, but yikes His is bad too. This is still a terrible Velvet pic though because the characters never look anything like this weird art they use. Like this is like using Amano art for Cloud and Sephiroth |
Well, I think the fact that she's not getting doubled speaks more to Wario's weakness than anything else. Monika's not a bottom feeder or anything, but she's gonna be pretty weak. |
Lopen posted... red sox 777 posted...Lopen, it's been a few years. Can you remind me what we decided regarding stuffing claims? I remember there being a fair amount of analysis into this but not what the data was. To be fair to Allen , it's not like any of this is decisive evidence. (And like I wrote in the previous stat topic, the actions don't really make sense from a stuffer point of view, at least for Draven). I'm also unsure how he could easily go about proving whether those votes are legits or not. |
Zero is the real victim of the Monika rally. Those Monika voters are going hard for Primrose No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
https://i.imgtc.com/hLPWroo.jpg Imagine if this was Sephiroth’s R1 pic. He would probably make his opponent look pretty good even ignoring FF deboost |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, I think the fact that she's not getting doubled speaks more to Wario's weakness than anything else. I'm sure her rally helps her percentage a bit too. My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
I mean Velvet's character design kinda sucks anyway so it's not her strong suit regardless but her opponent's picture is horrendous |
Averia posted... To be fair to Allen , it's not like any of this is decisive evidence. (And like I wrote in the previous stat topic, the actions don't really make sense from a stuffer point of view, at least for Draven). It's not, but if you have all the data you need to investigate more than the basic idiot check for vote stuffing, especially when there's a lot of suspicious stuff that you choose to handwave away by assuming someone who cares enough to cheat is either an idiot or not following the contest very closely, neither of which really makes sense. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! (edited 10/21/2018 1:39:42 PM) |
BetrayedTangy posted... LeonhartFour posted...Well, I think the fact that she's not getting doubled speaks more to Wario's weakness than anything else. I mean, sure. The rally has been fairly minimal though. Based on the vote totals, it's probably 2500 extra votes max. Even if you take 2500 votes away from Monika, Wario gets 70%, which I'd say still isn't that great. |
UltimaterializerX posted... MarquessLaus posted...UltimaterializerX posted...show hidden quote(s)MoogleKupo141 posted...me, Trump, Gary Vaynerchuk, the Patriots, and Muhammad Ali Telling every person that has ever had a bad life that it's their fault probably bullies at least someone that reads this thread, just going by statistics. "We'll tell the customers that the features promised are in a place outside of Heaven now" -- GransonEx |
LeonhartFour posted... For Knuckles > Zero, Zidane would have to be able to get at least 70.30% on Primrose. i'll allow it xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
KanzarisKelshen posted... I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. Nah you're good. Social media tone is a LOT different from the kind of writing you're discussing I think. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
swordz9 posted... https://i.imgtc.com/hLPWroo.jpg This art is less similar to seph than Velvet's art is to her though, by a lot. You're exaggerating. (That amano art is ballin tho) Shine on, you crazy diamond. |
MarquessLaus posted... UltimaterializerX posted...MarquessLaus posted...show hidden quote(s)UltimaterializerX posted...MoogleKupo141 posted...me, Trump, Gary Vaynerchuk, the Patriots, and Muhammad Ali Nono, not their fault. I'm saying you have the choice to make it better. Two different issues man. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
UltimaterializerX posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. Kinda? Serious writing conveys emotions better, sure, but we can use emojis to compensate. I feel it's a better option than pissing people off imo. Shine on, you crazy diamond. |
UltimaterializerX posted... MarquessLaus posted...UltimaterializerX posted...show hidden quote(s)MarquessLaus posted...UltimaterializerX posted...MoogleKupo141 posted...me, Trump, Gary Vaynerchuk, the Patriots, and Muhammad Ali If every guy standing alone in corner at every party is still every guy that is trying to ruin the fun in contests online 10 year later then it follows that you must not think that's possible or simply never happening. "We'll tell the customers that the features promised are in a place outside of Heaven now" -- GransonEx |
swordz9 posted... https://i.imgtc.com/hLPWroo.jpg Wow he actually looks cool for once. yep, don't mind, I've already won one and I'm rich, it's not like I need 1k for video games - UltimaterializerX |
Lopen posted... Zero is the real victim of the Monika rally. Those Monika voters are going hard for Primrose Not particularly hard. I posted this image in the previous topic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/497169201946165248/503514261641887764/unknown.png That was the voting splits at 6:00 AM Eastern, so they are likely a lot different now. The percentage of votes from registered users should be easily under 50% by now. Zidane and Noctis weren't getting killed as badly as I expected from the rally, but the anonymous voter group also includes a lot of GameFAQs voters who might naturally favor Zidane and Noctis more than the registered users. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! (edited 10/21/2018 1:49:17 PM) |
I
dunno if you showed me that picture randomly I wouldn’t guess it was
Velvet because there are only like 8.7 billion anime girls who look like
her. Amano art is definitely more uh unique at least. I’m actually
curious if Amano art Cloud and Sephiroth would massively underperform if
people are so convinced Vincent’s pic hurt him (still way better than
Amano art though tbh) |
KanzarisKelshen posted... UltimaterializerX posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...show hidden quote(s)I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. Who started the League of Legends rally and trolled for weeks afterwards? Someone remind me. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n (edited 10/21/2018 1:51:13 PM) |
UltimaterializerX posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...UltimaterializerX posted...show hidden quote(s)KanzarisKelshen posted...I forget, does ulti have me on ignore? Kinda sad he didn't reply to my retort about tone in text. I didn't troll much. Mosty I was entirely sincere which is why there was so much backlash. People felt I was being sadistic with telling people to fight and giving them false hope. I'm not great at reading the mood and didn't realize I just needed to be quiet. I know better these days. Shine on, you crazy diamond. |
As
someone who jumps between face and heel depending I'm my mood and who
I'm talking to I'm not sure I've ever had my tone misconstrued. I also
rarely use emoticons. There's definitely a skill there. Vocabulary and
choice of vocabulary helps a lot-- being willing to use casual words
like dude in an intelligent discussion gets you super far if you can be
okay with the other guy thinking you're a commoner to help ease the
conversation. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
really don't want to get involved in this argument, but I think it's
worth saying that stuff like this is why these contests aren't as
popular anymore. I've tried to get a couple of my friends in here, but
they've been scared off, because they've seen how aggressive the board
can become. My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
For
what its worth, Ulti's analysis for contest matches on the wiki is
legitimately useful even if his taste on things like Wind Waker and
TWEWY is garbage and his political opinions expressed there are pretty
bizarre and inconsistent Still hoping. |
i
will actually agree with ulti (for once) that it's often difficult to
convey tone through text. i think it's weird that people on this board
seem to think that i'm often super aggressive and serious when nobody i
know irl thinks of me like that. i'm actually rarely mad, i'm usually
pretty chill and i'm often non-serious. i do think that without the tone
of my voice a ton of context gets lost. that's not to say you have absolutely no control over tone through text, though. and i do think ulti is completely tone deaf in the way he thinks his posts come across. also, he literally just said he acts differently here than he does irl so uh, this point is kinda moot anyway. Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
Hbthebattle posted... For what its worth, Ulti's analysis for contest matches on the wiki is legitimately useful even if his taste on things like Wind Waker and TWEWY is garbage and his political opinions expressed there are pretty bizarre and inconsistent Thanks bro! :D Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n (edited 10/21/2018 2:48:00 PM) |
ZeldaTPLink posted... DoctorJimmy133 posted...This entire match wil probably be the single funniest part of the contest Yeah, the rally fear is perfectly understandable when we remember that our last two major contests were won by one entrant who was likely weaker than Monika (in terms of intrinsic GameFAQs popularity) and one that probably wasn't much stronger. If Link and OoT/CT had won in 2013 and 2015, hardly anyone would be putting their stock in rallies today. Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
I
read a good portion of those too and I think everyone's really valuable
to contest contribution. I dont have any beef with anyone here. I just
think some of the arguing I see scares people off and more people would
make these contest even cooler My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
i
don't think there's anything wrong with arguing as long as you're being
respectful, though. but yeah, if you don't like arguments, stay far
away from this board. Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
This
topic series is all about arguing and yeah it's pretty newbie
unfriendly. I think the board as a whole is less harsh. Hell the
Analysis Crew is probably the better place than these topics to discuss
current matches I think. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
BetrayedTangy posted... I read a good portion of those too and I think everyone's really valuable to contest contribution. I dont have any beef with anyone here. I just think some of the arguing I see scares people off and more people would make these contest even cooler post contest analysis is completely useless though. Who cares why someone won or lost. It isnt useful with these contests beyond seeing the end result. Especially when 99% of people here cant even get the first three damn days of a contest correct. Pre contest sure it's fun to see people theories. Lastly you're right about people fighting and being salty definitely drives outsiders away but the absolute relic of flip flopping, being salty and passive aggressive, while being blindly ignorant to it all is ulti himself. "Quick it's a contest topic, better throw my political agenda into it and insult people for good measure" yep, don't mind, I've already won one and I'm rich, it's not like I need 1k for video games - UltimaterializerX |
Things are way less harsh than back in the day, but it's also a smaller group so it is inherently way more cliquey. Or rather we had tons of cliques before and now very few. What was my point? Oh yeah LOLMonika. Or something I am Nick. Go Sens, Bills, Blue Jays! UotY 2015, You should listen to The Show w/ Ngamer and Yoblazer |
Fair
enough, I was mostly using argument with a more negative connotation.
Like I think debates that get a little heated can be expected, hell I
even get into those. I just think things getting personal make things
out of hand My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
so is this what being in the Discord is like? n2k |
swordz9 posted... I dunno if you showed me that picture randomly I wouldn’t guess it was Velvet because there are only like 8.7 billion anime girls who look like her. Amano art is definitely more uh unique at least. I’m actually curious if Amano art Cloud and Sephiroth would massively underperform if people are so convinced Vincent’s pic hurt him (still way better than Amano art though tbh) Amano art wouldn’t be so bad if it was anywhere in the actual game. How many people who played FF3/6j back in the day had access to the manual where presumably the Amano art exists? You ask people to envision Kefka or Terra, and they will think of the sprites, which don’t really have any resemblance to the concept art in most cases. Agent Triple Zero at your service! This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2018 Guru Contest winner. |
Lopen posted... This topic series is all about arguing and yeah it's pretty newbie unfriendly. I think the board as a whole is less harsh. Hell the Analysis Crew is probably the better place than these topics to discuss current matches I think. I feel like most of the regular stat posters are among the noob-friendliest people on Board 8. There's a noticeable contingent on B8 that's quickly and directly dismissive of any new poster making any new topic - I don't see that much in stats. Yoblazer https://imgur.com/gByqgPg |
FlyingForever posted... BetrayedTangy posted...I read a good portion of those too and I think everyone's really valuable to contest contribution. I dont have any beef with anyone here. I just think some of the arguing I see scares people off and more people would make these contest even cooler For all it's worth understanding what happens in round 1 can help plan for oracle/spread/streak. And future contests too. |
CaptainOfCrush posted... Lopen posted...This topic series is all about arguing and yeah it's pretty newbie unfriendly. I think the board as a whole is less harsh. Hell the Analysis Crew is probably the better place than these topics to discuss current matches I think. This. We are very, very friendly to new people and there's 1286 topics proving it. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
Amano
art is bad for most of the characters is the problem. Velvet you may
argue it doesn't look like her in game but it looks good and sticks out,
which is all she'll need on this one. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Oh yeah topic dismissal is the worst. I'm still cautious about making topics. My Quest to beat the Final Fantasies: I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XII XIII XV |
I
think there might have been a miscalculation about FFIX growing in real
popularity over the years. I was thinking this the other day, and in
typical hindsight 20/20 fashion, I'm saying it now. It's grown in
*relative* popularity as the rest of FF has fallen off while it stays
the same, and this has created an optical illusion so to speak about its
popularity overall. To be honest, I wouldn't say that any of FFIX's
performances in 2008/2009 are less impressive than what it showed in the
last several contests. I know that in concrete terms this doesn't matter, as everything else seems to be falling off in popularity on the site, buy something to think about. Yesmar |
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