GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1285
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SwiftyDC posted... Maybe watching the Dodgers/Brewers game? well we DID have the Hockey Factor during Ryu/Dante still one of the most amazing things I've ever witnessed in these contests |
Nanis23 posted... Wow r/DDLC thanks for being f***ing useless Hugging their anime waifu pillows -~get rich or drunk trying ~- |
To
me, the fact that Monika -hasn't- really dropped off in votes suggests
the rallying has some effect, it's just not crazy (yet) That's sort of assuming normal vote intake drops off steadily as the night wears on though, which seems intuitive but I didn't really research that "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Primrose might get a cut before Monika does (Mega Man is really bad in Europe) |
and of course as I'm typing that she gets her worst update in an hour "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
Janus5k posted... and of course as I'm typing that she gets her worst update in an hour Keep going bb -~get rich or drunk trying ~- |
Nanis23 posted... Wow r/DDLC thanks for being f***ing useless some of them probably voted Wario because Monika "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
I
still stand by that the main effect of rallying is eventually you find a
soul willing and able to cheat. Will Monika find that person in time,
time will tell. Organic rally effects don't seem to be enough to win
updates. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well, I'm pretty sure the developer of DDLC knows how to hack. Dilated Chemist |
that thing i made is relevant again https://i.imgtc.com/YeYKKy9.jpg Curator of the Character Battle X Archive https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp |
Lopen posted... I still stand by that the main effect of rallying is eventually you find a soul willing and able to cheat. Will Monika find that person in time, time will tell. Organic rally effects don't seem to be enough to win updates. Not necessarily. For example when the Draven rally topic got sticked during his match with Snake we saw Draven go crazy. When the Draven rally topic was banned during his match with Mewtwo, Draven was a chump. A vote stuffer has no reason to care about any of these things. They shouldn't need a rally topic on Reddit to vote stuff against Mewtwo. This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
ZenOfThunder posted... that thing i made is relevant again That image is made of nightmares -~get rich or drunk trying ~- |
Based
on the 11:20 PM update, I've calculated the vote split in the
Monika/Wario match. Wario has 68.05% from registered users, compared to
only 60.46% from anonymous users. As of 11:20 PM, the registered users
make up 56.65% of the total raw votes. Seems like the rally might be having some effect right now. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Thing
is, even before the contest started and someone mentioned how many
people are online on that subreddit, I said that 2k is nothing to be
afraid of This is not even close to the 20k+ r/lol had back in 2013 Which is why I took her up to round lol because lolwario and lolnoctis, but I still knew it was a gamble But this? this poor showing is even worse than anticipated, even when assuming the rally would be weak 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
Hm... This does look bad for Monika, but I'm not going to call her until it's close to the end Still hoping. |
That's
not how the flow of information works is the problem. Rally boosts
should come in surges more than constant streams. When Draven did well
he was constantly doing well, without any hiccup. And we'd seen it with
no real prompting at times. And honestly any cheater in that match could have just chosen to stop at any point past the first few hours. Had Draven ever been at any risk I have no doubt his votes would've went right back up. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
And thanks to her rally being useless I barely even care about getting two other matches wrong Anyway, does anyone else think Zero is doing bad? A Octopath Traveler breaking 20% is weird considering it's a Switch exclusive and just came out She has more votes than people that played her game here... 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 |
It seems to have been very hard for anyone to break 80% in recent years regardless of how bad the opposition is. |
Monika rally updates seem to favor primrose but yeah not great for Zero No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
think this is just fine for Zero unless you think he's the same guy who
once got 47.5% on Sonic. He hasn't been that guy in a while. |
Lopen posted... That's not how the flow of information works is the problem. Rally boosts should come in surges more than constant streams. When Draven did well he was constantly doing well, without any hiccup. And we'd seen it with no real prompting at times. What do you mean that's not how the flow of information works? Are you claiming that the cheater stopped stuffing votes when rallies topics got banned on Reddit and immediately started again when the rally topics were allowed? This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
@Nanis23 posted... Wow r/DDLC thanks for being f***ing useless Try discord and the steamcommunity boards And he was never seen again. |
He's
claiming that the vote intake is too consistent and practically
instantaneous when called for. There should at least be an update every
once in a while where everyone leaves to go make a sandwich or
something. |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Are you claiming that the cheater stopped stuffing votes when rallies topics got banned on Reddit and immediately started again when the rally topics were allowed? It's certainly possible if they were savvy about not being detected, particularly since the match was well in hand anyway. I'm just saying compare Draven's surge in vote intake early in the match with the one he got later in that match. One is a huge spike that tapers off (like L-Block). The other is a constant stream of 400s until he takes the lead, followed by a constant stream of 200-300 once the lead has been taken and is being built upon. Isn't it strange to you that the vote intake is pretty close to constant, and that it so abruptly goes down once Draven has the lead? If it was a rally, you'd see a big spike when information became more visible, and then it would drop off as the meat of people frequenting your site saw it earlier. You'd still see an increase but the magnitude would slope downward gradually and constantly until it approached normal vote numbers, but slightly inflated. Or to put it another way reddit is not a revolving door of a constant 100 different users every 5 minutes. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! (edited 10/20/2018 8:57:38 PM) |
So
I get home tonight and I find out Noctis is losing to a f***ing glove,
and Zidane is losing to a dude named after that body part that wears
f***ing gloves. What the f*** Final Fantasy. Congratulations to BK_Sheikah00, this year's guru to achieve contest enlightenment! |
Lopen posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...Are you claiming that the cheater stopped stuffing votes when rallies topics got banned on Reddit and immediately started again when the rally topics were allowed? Active users doesn't mean s***. The vast majority of people on a sub are logged out. The_Donald has 6 million people viewing it during peak hours. Active users is usually around 15,000. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
pyresword posted... So I get home tonight and I find out Noctis is losing to a f***ing glove, and Zidane is losing to a dude named after that body part that wears f***ing gloves. Final Fantasy is a fraud. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
yeah there was a server problem and for the first three hours the matches were posted on GloveFAQs https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Like
I guess another way to put it is if Draven had the juice to get an hour
straight of 400+ legit updates (at like 2am in the morning, btw--
League has a fanbase overseas but still, no), the big updates would
probably start somewhere around like 700 or 800 or something. They
wouldn't start at 400 and hold rock solid there an hour straight, and also drop by 100 immediately after taking the lead. Also you'd see some spikes in the morning hours when Americans woke up and saw the rally-- which I mean, you do, because there is a legit rally under that vote stuffing, but they're not nearly at a magnitude that would support an hour straight of 400 updates. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
UltimaterializerX posted... Active users doesn't mean s***. The vast majority of people on a sub are logged out. I wasn't basing it on active users. I was basing it on how internet browsing habits work. If you visit a site that's in the form that reddit is once in a day you probably visit it more than once. The rally only draws someone that first time someone visits and sees the rally, though. Meaning the votes drawn from it should work in a peaks with declines form rather than a series of plateaus. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! (edited 10/20/2018 9:15:26 PM) |
I
can see what you mean but I still find the sudden start and stop and
burst that are related to specific events to be strange. It's
technically possible that they want to match their vote stuffing with
rally topic status on Reddit. Same thing with Undertale. It's
technically possible they decided to vote stuff more whenever
undertale_bot Tweeted about the match. However, this seems needlessly
complex when they should expect their votes to be scrutinized no matter
what. Also, are these two different vote stuffers who came up with the
same convoluted idea to hide their vote stuffing or are you of the
opinion that Draven and Undertale stuffers were the same person? This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! |
I'm buying in to Lopen's conspiracy theory. Posted using GameFlux Get it now for Android from Google Play! |
davidponte posted... I'm buying in to Lopen's conspiracy theory. Allen himself laughed at this 3 years ago. Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://www.twitch.tv/ultimaterializerx ; https://imgur.com/dsnL40n |
UltimaterializerX posted... davidponte posted...I'm buying in to Lopen's conspiracy theory. Something something Allen’s wife Curator of the Character Battle X Archive https://bit.ly/2RFxBzp |
I, uh, probably should have gone with the Sans/Draven finals, with LoL seemingly making a comeback. |
Could
be the same person, could not be. I doubt it's anything that
convoluted that someone with enough drive and a little bit of knowhow
couldn't figure out. I've had discussions with Allen about his methods
to detect vote stuffing and the analytics he does and it's all really
basic stuff-- as long as you aren't hammering with votes that appear to
come from the same place on a geomap I'm unconvinced he possesses the
critical thinking to really digest the data he has properly to detect
it. I mean here's why it's kinda complex to detect and why a surge linked to a tweet by undertale_bot or whatever helps. Like, I do think the rallies have some effect. It's just, layered under it, you have a constant intake of +100 or +200 votes just shoved in. So you still get some variance, enough to not make it look totally shady on its face, but it's muffled by an unnatural vote intake increase. I'm just saying like, L-Block (and rallies before him-- including some stuff from Draven himself) acted completely different than Draven or Undertale. To me that's strange because the dynamics at play should be very similar, and like, thinking about how people use these rallying platforms, it really doesn't make sense that you'd have a constant increase. You should have a spike as visibility increases, and then a decrease over time as repeat views over the course of a day don't help. You should also get surges at points where traffic to the site in question would naturally increase. Like when people wake up or get home from work or whatever else. You also shouldn't have any change in votes when behind vs ahead, cause I mean, really. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! (edited 10/20/2018 9:53:12 PM) |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... yeah there was a server problem and for the first three hours the matches were posted on GloveFAQs Why Did They Lose for today already has its winner Not to be confused with XIII_Stones. |
Registered user trends by hour and time period based on the Tidus/DK match: Time | By Hour | Overall 21:00 | 65.86% | 65.86% 22:00 | 57.15% | 62.28% 23:00 | 56.95% | 60.84% 0:00 | 54.67% | 59.66% 1:00 | 54.93% | 58.91% 2:00 | 51.61% | 58.12% 3:00 | 49.93% | 57.41% 4:00 | 51.57% | 57.01% 5:00 | 46.76% | 56.44% 6:00 | 46.85% | 55.99% 7:00 | 41.56% | 55.30% 8:00 | 46.27% | 54.86% 9:00 | 48.73% | 54.53% 10:00 | 44.64% | 53.98% 11:00 | 43.56% | 53.40% 12:00 | 42.13% | 52.85% 13:00 | 44.99% | 52.50% 14:00 | 42.60% | 52.09% 15:00 | 44.08% | 51.79% 16:00 | 42.91% | 51.49% 17:00 | 39.33% | 51.14% 18:00 | 42.45% | 50.90% 19:00 | 40.63% | 50.65% 20:00 | 38.92% | 50.40% Time | Period | Overall EBV | 78.16% | 78.16% PHV | 65.86% | 65.86% ENV | 55.39% | 58.12% DNV | 49.03% | 55.99% TMV | 44.47% | 52.85% TDV | 42.28% | 50.40% The highest percentage of registered users are seen at the beginning of a match and continues decreasing over the course of the match. Based on this, we could view the ENV as sort of an extension of the Power Hour. There's also a small spike in registered user voting for 2 hours during the early morning, probably as a result of people waking up and voting in the match who didn't get a chance to vote at the start. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour posted... a friggin' GLOVE 2005-flashbacks, my man. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
Clearly we need to nominate Crazy Hand next time as well. n2k |
We need to run the Rivalry Rumble again so we can have Crazy and Master Hand together.....they would be unstoppable! Oh, and I got mixed up with two characters. I said Zero should be approaching 80%, but that was a mistake... Yoshi's the one who ought to at least approach 80% in his match against what looks like the weakest character in the bracket. "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
ZeldaTPLink posted... The DDLC sub has pinned ulti's rally thread. Not sure if any single user has cared more about upsetting the board than Ulti. Too bad ignoring him doesn't prevent this problem he's attempting. Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq |
She's going to be weak, but I don't think Shantae is going to really be in the discussion for weakest character in the bracket. It's probably gonna be that dude facing 2B. Or James Sunderland. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
@red_sox_777 posted... Will be interesting how frontloaded the votals will be this year, with an 8 pm start time on the North American east coast. With 2 full days of matches completed, I can answer this one. Based on just the raw votes (without the registered user bonus), the first 2 days of matches received 11.29% and 11.16% of their votes in the first hour. For comparison, the 12:00 AM start time receives between 9.50% and 10.50% of their votes in the first hour. Moving to an 8:00 PM start time has resulted in slightly higher early vote totals. With the registered user bonus factored in, the first 2 days of matches received 12.42% and 12.31% of their votes in the first hour. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
Yeah,
Cayde-6 is a contender, too. James Sunderland could be pretty awful,
true... I wonder if he's even worth 40% on Pyramid Head before SFF? "Ah,
a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is
a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
ZenOfThunder posted... that thing i made is relevant again lmao You felt your sins weighing down on your neck. |
Yeah, I don't think Shantae is going to be the weakest. I'd bet good money on the Destiny guy. |
HaRRicH posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...The DDLC sub has pinned ulti's rally thread. Huh? This is the pinned topic and it isn't mine, it was made by a mod there, what are you even f***ing talking about? https://www.reddit.com/r/DDLC/comments/9pz7ro/reminder_vote_monika_in_the_gamefaqs_character/ This is why I laugh at the people who do nothing but talk crap on me day after day, because at this point you literally cannot even do simple things like read a username on a topic correctly. That's why wasting energy on hating people is bad for your health and I fully recommend starting the path to getting over yourself, because I promise your energy in hating me is completely wasted. Try starting here: https://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/destructive-power-hate/ Granted I question your ability to get through a simple blog article if you can't tell the difference between "UltimaterializerX" and "Litandus", but I guess everyone has to start somewhere. Is Hooked on Phonics still a thing or do people just learn to read with cell phone apps now? Equality, at any cost. http://www.msnbc.com/ |
Last place is going to be someone from Ganon's division after he loses to Link. https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
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