GameFAQs Contests

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, I don't think Shantae is going to be the weakest. I'd bet good money on the Destiny guy.

Cayde 6 could very well get stuck behind Ness against Bowser, which could very easily put him to the bottom if he isn't already there.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Last place is going to be someone from Ganon's division after he loses to Link.

well thankfully double elimination makes SFF adjustments (presumably) easier this year to some extent

After looking on Tumblr, I see this Monika rally post:

https://ddlc-incorrect-quotes.tumblr.com/post/179263656371/vote-for-monika

It currently has 54 notes, but links to the stickied topic on the DDLC subreddit. A lot more people would have to reblog the post before it can cause any real damage. The problem with the Tumblr rally post is that viewers first have to check out the DDLC subreddit, followed by clicking on the link on the subreddit's banner to land on GameFAQs. This could make the Tumblr rally post less effective than usual.

LusterSoldier posted...

After looking on Tumblr, I see this Monika rally post:

https://ddlc-incorrect-quotes.tumblr.com/post/179263656371/vote-for-monika

It currently has 54 notes, but links to the stickied topic on the DDLC subreddit. A lot more people would have to reblog the post before it can cause any real damage. The problem with the Tumblr rally post is that viewers first have to check out the DDLC subreddit, followed by clicking on the link on the subreddit's banner to land on GameFAQs. This could make the Tumblr rally post less effective than usual.

Really makes you respect the rallies that actually work, doesn't it? All the same tools are there that existed for Undertale, plus a subreddit that actually cares, and Monika is still getting pasted.

LeonhartFour posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Last place is going to be someone from Ganon's division after he loses to Link.

well thankfully double elimination makes SFF adjustments (presumably) easier this year to some extent

Ready for another fun one?

Mega Man X might end up behind Samus/Mario. Twice.

that just means Tifa has to win instead

Final Fantasy winning a debatable match it's 2018 old man.

Just wanted to say that 4 out of 4 Smash characters won their match (including SSB Mascot, Master Hand)
Smash Boost is real

Nanis23 posted...

Just wanted to say that 4 out of 4 Smash characters won their match (including SSB Mascot, Master Hand)
Smash Boost is real

It's my most hyped game since.... hrm.

Probably since Brawl actually, but this time I made sure to read NONE of the hype. Not making that mistake twice. Didn't even know Ridley was in until I saw it here in the stats topic, and I saw the Belmont thing by accident. Couldn't tell you a thing about what "crossing over" even means. I really want that childlike wonder of not knowing a damn thing going in.

It could just mean DDLC fans aren't low enough to cheat. Good on them, from something I liked I'm glad that hasn't been resorted to. Yet, anyway.

v_charon posted...

It could just mean DDLC fans aren't low enough to cheat. Good on them, from something I liked I'm glad that hasn't been resorted to. Yet, anyway.

There is zero proof Undertale, Draven, or L-Block cheated.

remember when missingno beat crono, crono fans went RAWR MISSINGNO CHEATED, then it turned out crono was cheating

i hope the smash boost single-handedly transforms simon into an average to above average performer in these contests instead of a joke

For the record I've never claimed L-Block cheated

As for proof of course there's none. We don't have all the data and the guy who has it is too stupid or unmotivated to analyze it properly.

Isabelle > X LET'S GO SMASH FACTOR

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

remember when missingno beat crono, crono fans went RAWR MISSINGNO CHEATED, then it turned out crono was cheating

Happened with Tidus, too. Notice how the Final Fantasy/RPG fans are the ones who cry cheating the most? Always watch the ones who don't clap when you win.

Lopen posted...

For the record I've never claimed L-Block cheated

As for proof of course there's none. We don't have all the data and the guy who has it is too stupid or unmotivated to analyze it properly.

Allen l-i-t-e-r-a-l-l-y told you personally an analysis of votes. In a topic. This happened.

You sound like a democrat. Undertale won legit. Deal with it.

Yeah that's why I know he's too stupid to do a meaningful analysis on it or doesn't actually care to

Lopen posted...

Yeah that's why I know he's too stupid to do a meaningful analysis on it or doesn't actually care to

Undertale won legit. Deal with it.

Well I mean you're the guy whose analysis of Ocean's Eight says it was a flop financially so of course critical thinking is over your head.

Lopen posted...

I'm just saying like, L-Block (and rallies before him-- including some stuff from Draven himself) acted completely different than Draven or Undertale. To me that's strange because the dynamics at play should be very similar, and like, thinking about how people use these rallying platforms, it really doesn't make sense that you'd have a constant increase. You should have a spike as visibility increases, and then a decrease over time as repeat views over the course of a day don't help. You should also get surges at points where traffic to the site in question would naturally increase. Like when people wake up or get home from work or whatever else. You also shouldn't have any change in votes when behind vs ahead, cause I mean, really.

I can't speak to Draven or all of the Undertale rallying, but there was one Tumblr which was very key in this respect. It was a very popular Tumblr run by someone who mostly made Pokemon related sprites/avatars for people (and who has no loyalty to Pokemon apparently.) Every time Undertale picked up in strength it was right after this person had posted or reposted about the contest. Whenever Undertale would start lagging, they would make a new post and you could watch the reposts spread out in response.

To Ulti's alt #18:

I saw this from the last topic about your post on Reddit (assuming UltimaterializerX is your Reddit account)...

ZeldaTPLink 10/20/2018 4:10:46 PM#485
https://www.reddit.com/r/DDLC/comments/9px8t7/monikas_first_match_in_the_gamefaqs_character/

It's on.

...and this post from this topic without a link to the Reddit topic in question.

ZeldaTPLink posted...
The DDLC sub has pinned ulti's rally thread.

Since it wasn't your rally that was pinned, that's fine and I'll concede that point...but now that you understand my confusion, you can stop and think about how annoying we find the rallying you're intentionally doing.

This is me ignoring another one of your alt accounts now.

If Draven cheated, then whoever did the votestuffing has to have the highest IQ of anyone to ever touch a keyboard because he perfectly synchronized Draven's vote spikes with League of Legends championship matches, all while doing so in a way SBAllen couldn't catch

I mean my god, there can't have been enough cheating to affect the results there

Vote totals compared to the first two days at this time:

Day 1 - 11733, 11738, 11731, 11740
Day 2 - 11700, 11716, 11718, 11710
Day 3 - 12721, 12721, 12723, 12727

Looks like we're about 1000 votes ahead of yesterday's pace now.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

If Draven cheated, then whoever did the votestuffing has to have the highest IQ of anyone to ever touch a keyboard because he perfectly synchronized Draven's vote spikes with League of Legends championship matches, all while doing so in a way SBAllen couldn't catch

I mean my god, there can't have been enough cheating to affect the results there

You're looking at it the wrong way

There will be spikes in a legit rally. The problem is the resting vote total when there wasn't fluctuation was far too high to make sense.

Like a legit rally without stuffed votes might have Draven's updates go something like

90
90
90
170
140
90

In a non legit rally his updates would go something like

290
290
290
370
340
290

As for doing it in a way Allen can't catch all you need to do is make stuffed votes come from a variety of IPs that don't all come from the same geomapping because that's literally all he checked by his own admission.

Anyway, now that I caught up I just want to say Knuckles pulling upsets is worth hurting my bracket every time.

HeroicSpiderPig posted...

Lopen posted...

I'm just saying like, L-Block (and rallies before him-- including some stuff from Draven himself) acted completely different than Draven or Undertale. To me that's strange because the dynamics at play should be very similar, and like, thinking about how people use these rallying platforms, it really doesn't make sense that you'd have a constant increase. You should have a spike as visibility increases, and then a decrease over time as repeat views over the course of a day don't help. You should also get surges at points where traffic to the site in question would naturally increase. Like when people wake up or get home from work or whatever else. You also shouldn't have any change in votes when behind vs ahead, cause I mean, really.

I can't speak to Draven or all of the Undertale rallying, but there was one Tumblr which was very key in this respect. It was a very popular Tumblr run by someone who mostly made Pokemon related sprites/avatars for people (and who has no loyalty to Pokemon apparently.) Every time Undertale picked up in strength it was right after this person had posted or reposted about the contest. Whenever Undertale would start lagging, they would make a new post and you could watch the reposts spread out in response.

Pokemon is my main franchise and I voted for undertale

Floyd Mayweather could have read it properly dude.

Lopen posted...

You're looking at it the wrong way

There will be spikes in a legit rally. The problem is the resting vote total when there wasn't fluctuation was far too high to make sense.

Like a legit rally without stuffed votes might have Draven's updates go something like

90
90
90
170
140
90

In a non legit rally his updates would go something like

290
290
290
370
340
290

As for doing it in a way Allen can't catch all you need to do is make stuffed votes come from a variety of IPs that don't all come from the same geomapping because that's literally all he checked by his own admission.

I don't know, man, in the finals Draven's vote intake would more than double at times, so the pattern looked a lot more like the former set of numbers (except a bit more extreme) than the latter.

The problem isn't that it doubled. The problem is that it held at a double for so long, and never exceeded that by much.

Draven surged to 127, 178, 308, 677, 838, then held steady at 800-900 updates for a solid hour and a half, and then spontaneously collapsed down to 200-250 updates aside from one or two more natural looking brief surges after that. I'm willing to believe that yeah, some of that was a rally effect, but if it was all rally you'd expect the peak to be higher or the steady point to be lower. Getting to a match high update and then just freezing at that for a few hours just doesn't really make sense in any sort of realistic way for a rally to play out. You'd basically need a fairly constant number of people to see the rally every 5 minutes. Doesn't make sense with how the spread of information works on the internet. If someone tweets about a news story you don't get a steady trickle of people learning about the news all day. You get the strong majority getting the news as it's breaking. For an 800 resting point to make any sense I'd expect him to have received like a 1800 vote update or something at his strongest.

LeonhartFour posted...

Vote totals compared to the first two days at this time:

Day 1 - 11733, 11738, 11731, 11740
Day 2 - 11700, 11716, 11718, 11710
Day 3 - 12721, 12721, 12723, 12727

Looks like we're about 1000 votes ahead of yesterday's pace now.

It could mean there's some low level rallying. The same thing happened to Undertale before it went big.

Welp, I’m glad I went 3 out of 4 today. Silver lining.

charmander6000 posted...

It could mean there's some low level rallying. The same thing happened to Undertale before it went big.

Against ME3, the first signs of rallying happened after 3:15 PM. ME3 had 65.05% at 3:15 PM and lost 0.55% between 3:15 PM and 4:40 PM. The max lead of 9252 was at 4:40 PM, and then the consistent cuts started happening.

In today's match, the rallied votes are scattered throughout the course of the entire voting pool at this point without a significant amount of rallied votes coming in very suddenly like what happened to Undertale against ME3.

LusterSoldier posted...

charmander6000 posted...

It could mean there's some low level rallying. The same thing happened to Undertale before it went big.

Against ME3, the first signs of rallying happened after 3:15 PM. ME3 had 65.05% at 3:15 PM and lost 0.55% between 3:15 PM and 4:40 PM. The max lead of 9252 was at 4:40 PM, and then the consistent cuts started happening.

In today's match, the rallied votes are scattered throughout the course of the entire voting pool at this point without a significant amount of rallied votes coming in very suddenly like what happened to Undertale against ME3.

Which makes the 8pm end time really smart on Allen's part. Gives the favorite an extra 4 hours to build a lead.

Monika cut!

Monika got her first cut at 2:55 AM (3 vote cut).

Lopen posted...

The problem isn't that it doubled. The problem is that it held at a double for so long, and never exceeded that by much.

Draven surged to 127, 178, 308, 677, 838, then held steady at 800-900 updates for a solid hour and a half, and then spontaneously collapsed down to 200-250 updates aside from one or two more natural looking brief surges after that. I'm willing to believe that yeah, some of that was a rally effect, but if it was all rally you'd expect the peak to be higher or the steady point to be lower. Getting to a match high update and then just freezing at that for a few hours just doesn't really make sense in any sort of realistic way for a rally to play out. You'd basically need a fairly constant number of people to see the rally every 5 minutes. Doesn't make sense with how the spread of information works on the internet. If someone tweets about a news story you don't get a steady trickle of people learning about the news all day. You get the strong majority getting the news as it's breaking. For an 800 resting point to make any sense I'd expect him to have received like a 1800 vote update or something at his strongest.

All right, so the mega spike coincided perfectly with the stickying of a rally thread. How would a cheater make this into a votestuffing opportunity? Look at the rally thread, then start stuffing votes for an hour and a half in such a way to make it look like vote intake is relatively constant, then drastically reduce stuffing as soon as a LoL match starts?

And I certainly don't find out about most news stories the instant they break unless I get a notification about it. A subreddit announcement has no reason to instantly reach people like a push notification would - people see "The Official Draven GameFAQs post" whenever they happen to choose to hop onto the sub. Any consistency in vote intake can likely be explained by more people coming onto the sub in anticipation for the championships cancelling out the effect of other people using up their votes. Point is, there are too many variables involved to adequately say how the votes should be distributed over time.

LusterSoldier posted...

charmander6000 posted...

It could mean there's some low level rallying. The same thing happened to Undertale before it went big.

Against ME3, the first signs of rallying happened after 3:15 PM. ME3 had 65.05% at 3:15 PM and lost 0.55% between 3:15 PM and 4:40 PM. The max lead of 9252 was at 4:40 PM, and then the consistent cuts started happening.

In today's match, the rallied votes are scattered throughout the course of the entire voting pool at this point without a significant amount of rallied votes coming in very suddenly like what happened to Undertale against ME3.

I mean ME3/Undertale was on pace for having the most votes so far before the large spikes took hold. It starts off relatively quiet which is what we're seeing here. Whether it takes off or not is debatable.

48-45 ain't much, but I'll take one cut over what was happening before.

gnight yall

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

A subreddit announcement has no reason to instantly reach people like a push notification would - people see "The Official Draven GameFAQs post" whenever they happen to choose to hop onto the sub

You'd still see more variance there, and you wouldn't see a complete collapse all at once like it did. People who are frequenting the board the minute it goes up + the number of visitors in the next five minutes are going to exceed the number who see it in the 5 after that. Further, repeat visitors are only going to be impacted the first time, so you should see number of rallied votes decrease over time as the number of unique first time visitors per 5 minutes will decrease over the course of the day. This is exactly how L-Block functioned, btw. His peak update was generally much much higher than his normal updates, and he never sustained a level of constant huge votes for any period longer than like 15 minutes.

It also doesn't dry up all at once. And you're talking like League of Legends finals are going to absorb all of your attention-- I know a ton of people who watch League games, myself included once upon of time-- most of them have multiple monitors and multitask (or have it on a single monitor but have it in the background until the big moments). You're not going to watch the League of Legends matches with all your attention-- for the big moments, yeah, but there's a lot of dead time in those games.

And like you're assuming a vote stuffer has to be a complete idiot why? A vote stuffer can (and should) absolutely choose when to fire it up at full throttle wisely rather than just making it occur for no reason, and if you give a damn to vote stuff a match you're probably going to be following the match (and possible scapegoats for your cheating) throughout.

I think there is a chance we'll see some rally effects happening during the day tomorrow. Though it might not be enough for Monika. When did Undertale begin it's come back in Round 1 of CB9?

SwiftyDC posted...

I think there is a chance we'll see some rally effects happening during the day tomorrow. Though it might not be enough for Monika. When did Undertale begin it's come back in Round 1 of CB9?

Undertale wasn't in Character Battle 9 because it's a video game and not a character.

Undertale's peak lead against Mass Effect 3 was 9252 with a bit more than 7 hours to go, so a bit before 2PM Pacific.

However with the poll time change in effect, if Monika started cutting around 2PM Pacific, she would fall rather short, so she better be emulating Undertale in terms of time left, not time of day.

Fisting Fantasy

Also can we consider Dragonborn a Nintendo character yet

Current vote splits for today's matches as of 6:00 AM Eastern:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/497169201946165248/503514261641887764/unknown.png

At the same time in yesterday's matches, the registered vote made up 55.99% of the total votes. We are about to fall under 50% registered votes at the same time in today's matches.

Just woke up. Let me check how much FF characters are winning....
Yeah sure. What happened? You see FF is a series that EVERYBODY who plays video games knows.
And these are the main characters too! Damn!
And it is not they are losing to well established characters or something.
Okay I know FF has fallen but man...
Where are the good glory days? I am not saying they should win all matches but seriously?
If you are a fan of FF like me you see how things are now you get dissapointed.
Eh whatever. FF always wins anyways so they can lose a contest right?

Lopen posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

A subreddit announcement has no reason to instantly reach people like a push notification would - people see "The Official Draven GameFAQs post" whenever they happen to choose to hop onto the sub

You'd still see more variance there, and you wouldn't see a complete collapse all at once like it did. People who are frequenting the board the minute it goes up + the number of visitors in the next five minutes are going to exceed the number who see it in the 5 after that. Further, repeat visitors are only going to be impacted the first time, so you should see number of rallied votes decrease over time as the number of unique first time visitors per 5 minutes will decrease over the course of the day. This is exactly how L-Block functioned, btw. His peak update was generally much much higher than his normal updates, and he never sustained a level of constant huge votes for any period longer than like 15 minutes.

It also doesn't dry up all at once. And you're talking like League of Legends finals are going to absorb all of your attention-- I know a ton of people who watch League games, myself included once upon of time-- most of them have multiple monitors and multitask (or have it on a single monitor but have it in the background until the big moments). You're not going to watch the League of Legends matches with all your attention-- for the big moments, yeah, but there's a lot of dead time in those games.

And like you're assuming a vote stuffer has to be a complete idiot why? A vote stuffer can (and should) absolutely choose when to fire it up at full throttle wisely rather than just making it occur for no reason, and if you give a damn to vote stuff a match you're probably going to be following the match (and possible scapegoats for your cheating) throughout.

But if you assume there was a Draven cheater, there are plenty of things that are really weird
.
First, why the second round slaugher. This was no needed at all, this was the most suspicious thing in the entire round. And you can't say "well they didn't expect it to be suspicous so they calmed down after the reaction" or else why not in the first round ?

There was plenty of ridiculous occurances against Link. Why let the cheating decay so much Draven was actually close to losing. Not only that but they would have to be present to restart their cheating device right when the second rally thread was posted (also if you think it was a DDos, why ? They could have just stuffed more). Link had ridiculous spikes at the end, was it also him having fun ?

Same with Mewtwo, was he going to let Draven lose if the rally thread didn't come back ? And again, he had to be there to shut down the stuffing right away when the thread was deleted.
And was he going to let Draven lose against Snake if the mods didn't pin the topic ? Or was he a mod on r/lol ? Furthermore during that match, we saw the Draven intake decrease every time the rally thread went down until it reached pretty low level. Had he disabled the bot at this point ? Or was he manually adjusting it everytimes ?

There was so many things that couldn't be predicted that happened, and everything looked "normal". Unless you are saying he spent the entire the day updating the LoL subreddit to be subtle (except again in round 2 , and round 3 if you think it's a DDOS), and was ready to let Draven lose if he couldn't get back his rally thread.

HaRRicH posted...

To Ulti's alt #18:

I saw this from the last topic about your post on Reddit (assuming UltimaterializerX is your Reddit account)...

ZeldaTPLink 10/20/2018 4:10:46 PM#485
https://www.reddit.com/r/DDLC/comments/9px8t7/monikas_first_match_in_the_gamefaqs_character/

It's on.

...and this post from this topic without a link to the Reddit topic in question.

ZeldaTPLink posted...
The DDLC sub has pinned ulti's rally thread.

Since it wasn't your rally that was pinned, that's fine and I'll concede that point...but now that you understand my confusion, you can stop and think about how annoying we find the rallying you're intentionally doing.

This is me ignoring another one of your alt accounts now.

I apologize, I totally didn't check the username for the second thread. I thought they had used ulti's thread.

Go Primrose